Open 789: Two-Fold 2d3 [Game Over]

[Hiraki]

Yeah Dunn imma need a little more from you

[Menalque]

Menalque, could you elaborate on your town read on TripleHaven? Is there more to it than meta?

Not really, and I didn’t love her recent posts but overall she reminds me significantly of last game with the key exception being a lack of paranoia of me. I’m putting that down to my being town last game tho and then playing the same here, so I think it makes sense she’d be less concerned

[Dannflor]

I just think I got a lot more annoyed than I meant to earlier in this game and I'm worried it colored my reads a lot

Hiraki's more recent posts have some genuine town pings, specifically #547 and #614

[Menalque]

ya'll starting scumreading me from my first post and your guys reasoning for voting me hasn't evolved since like page 10

ok, TO BE FAIR- most of my games are turbos (16 minute/8 minute) games and nobody takes them seriously.

i'm assuming thats why you found me useless in my recent games

I think this is fine

[Menalque]

547

614

[Dannflor]

I guess like, meta doesn't seem like a great thing to base a read on here if you don't know how she'd behave as scum.

[Menalque]

Whats town about 614? If anything I think that’s +scum with the “oh I don’t have many read yet this game”

[Dannflor]

it's pretty easy to slap a few town reads on people as scum

openly admitting to having basically 1 real read isn't something scum really needs to do, it reads genuine to me

[Menalque]

I guess like, meta doesn't seem like a great thing to base a read on here if you don't know how she'd behave as scum.

That might be fair, but I also am just deeply unconvinced by the case that dram made and think that if that’s the “evidence” for scum her it’s light on the ground at best

I also think she’s potentially a target for scum given her newness to mafiascum

[Menalque]

it's pretty easy to slap a few town reads on people as scum

openly admitting to having basically 1 real read isn't something scum really needs to do, it reads genuine to me

Nah, I disagree, I think town mostly come to at least a few reads naturally

I’m p sure I see the “huh I just don’t have reads this game idk” come from scum more than town

[Menalque]

Or at least, above rand!scum

[Menalque]

I also don’t see what’s town about 547 that it outweighs the reasons for thinking hiraki is scum

[Dannflor]

outweighs the reasons for thinking hiraki is scum

I'm not saying that yet. I feel bad for hedging so much but I got very annoyed this game and now that I've cooled off I'm taking a step back and wondering if I was looking for reasons for hiraki to be scum as a consequence of that.

Can you recap the reasons hiraki feels scum to you? Not a case just a few bullet points

[Menalque]

I’d really like umlaut to weigh in on hiraki tbh seeing as he has recent meta with him

[Hiraki]

must be part of those idgi i don't know why people are scumreading me vibes

[Menalque]

Can you recap the reasons hiraki feels scum to you? Not a case just a few bullet points

Sure:

Way overconfident scumread on me from way too little information. I don’t think it’s plausible that he had a scumread that strong based on what I’d posted.

When asked to justify it, he said that it was because I’d given a “forced” readslist. When it was pointed out that this was a joke and that that had already been explained, he doubled down on it being “forced” and that it “wasn’t funny”.

Proceeded to try to dismiss the scumreads on his slot with a load of AtE and lolcatting.

Doesn’t seem to have any organic reads on the rest of the PL which is in stark contrast to his recent completed game here where he had a full readslist in by post 135 and was also just tonally completely different in how he entered the game and engaged with the other players, showing much more good faith and interest in cooperation.

[Menalque]

Oh, also I think that under interrogation on his read/entry he also changed his reasons for his scumread/it’s strength multiple times but I’d have to reread those pages to be certain on that

[Menalque]

I feel that any one of the things in 640 wouldn’t be a bad reason to guullotine someone on D1, and I think that all of them mean that this is the most confident I’ve been in someone being scum on D1 in a while. I don’t really like to try tip quantify confidence so much nowadays, but to give an idea, I’d say there is like a 55%-60% chance that hiraki flips scum here.

[dramonic]

and a 100% chance Triple and you do. I'll take those odds.

[Menalque]

*yawn*

[Menalque]

Okay I’m probably gonna start ignoring dram because this is the sort of behaviour that has often led to me getting toxic in the past and I’d really rather than not happen here !

[dramonic]

joking aside (it's not 100% chance obviously), 55-60% is absurdly low and a setup to backpedal on the townflip.

[Menalque]

It’s saying that I think he’s a little less than twice as likely as rand to flip scum which is pretty high for D1

[dramonic]

except nobody suggests rand

[Menalque]

Nobody suggests rand but that’s the sensible thing to compare your confidence level to?