Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[innocentvillager]

okay bitches marathon time.

[innocentvillager]

FoS: Raya OR A50
FoS: Hiraki OR Marksman

[innocentvillager]

anyway we need to dunk again, we have like 8 more dunks to go and it seems we are getting penalized for twilight. I can dunk A50 if needed, he's just null to me atm

actually, we should try to predict when RR will be on and dunk right before then.

8 more dunks?? Do you expect us to get 5 dunks wrong??

So... about that...

i wouldve been very happy if we only dunked 8 people.

[Raya36]

I'm gonna guess there was probably 1 or 2 scum on the nono wagon. Laning more towards 1. If so Hiraki then A50 if there was two. But I townread A50 (like basically the entire player list)

Scum is playing really really well because I have 0 clue who it could be

[Marksman]

[Marksman]

@Casey - What changed your mind from declaring Marksman/Nono as your locktown reads that you were never voting?

@inno - Why the combos of Raya/Almo and Mark/Hiraki specifically?

[Marksman]

Lavender's likely scum if Hiraki is. Hiraki pointed it out himself interestingly enough:

my TR of lav actually died a lot considering there was no vote on me or nono considering that lav has said i was scummy before and nono was town. but it's moreso that there was no vote rather than the reads

We’re running out of time ah that’s scary _o—< I don’t know don’t know don’t know

Acknowledges we're running out of time but doesn't vote for either.

Ehhh I didn’t know if voting Nono woulda still hammered, I was still in school you knows? Couldn’t check who Isis had voted. O.o

What do you mean here, Lav? Why did you have to vote Nono there, wouldn't Hiraki make more sense considering you were sus of him and liked Nono?

[Marksman]

I still want Hiraki today if that wasn't clear.

[Raya36]

I don't think I can really be swayed away from Hiraki. That was my preferred dunk yesterday too

[innocentvillager]

lav/isis are not partners

[innocentvillager]

there is scum in {isis, marksman}

there is scum in {raya, A50}

[innocentvillager]

im hard-assuming casey is town at this point i completely give up if casey is scum

[Isis]

im hard-assuming casey is town at this point i completely give up if casey is scum

[Raya36]

Why Isis and marksman? I townread both :/

[innocentvillager]

isis/raya/hiraki

isis/raya/lav

isis/a50/hiraki

isis/a50/lav

marksie/raya/hiraki
marksie/raya/lav
marksie/a50/hiraki
marksie/a50/lav

isis/marksie/raya
isis/marksie/a50
isis/raya/a50

marksie/raya/a50

i think this is where I'm at with the possible teams assuming casey is town, if anyone thinks other combinations are unlikely let me know

[innocentvillager]

Why Isis and marksman? I townread both :/

mostly because it's so unlikely that every single scum was off the wey wagon given that slot's scumminess and the fact that he was the leading wagon

and also because i think there is scum off the Nono wagon

[innocentvillager]

well assuming:

1)my scumteam hypothesis is correct
2)you guys believe im town
3)we execute this plan

We are 100% to win: marksie first, if town then isis then raya/hiraki/a50 any order, if scum then raya, if scum gg, if town then a50 is scum, then hiraki/lav/isis any order

but... these are big assumptions.

[Marksman]

mostly because it's so unlikely that every single scum was off the wey wagon given that slot's scumminess and the fact that he was the leading wagon

?
Given the slot's scuminess, it's possible the wagon was natural and all town, and managed to beat out the scumdriven counterwagon(s). The assumption of at least 1 scum being on the Wey wagon is really arbitrary.

Also, scum keeping each other alive in nightless is important. You always end up with a couple or more of obvtownies that scum can never misdunk or nightkill in nightless games, so it's all the more important to keep everyone around and gain parity earlier. I think there's unlikely to be more than 1 scum on the Wey wagon, and I could see there being 0.

[Marksman]

FoS: Raya OR A50
FoS: Hiraki OR Marksman

You gonna explain these?

[innocentvillager]

i mean i knew you would speak out against my plan.

it's not that arbitrary, what scum doesn't want to get towncred for a D1 maf dunk that's clearly going to go through because of the slot's scumminess?

[innocentvillager]

i guess this points to isis more than it points to you then, huh.

[innocentvillager]

also i think in general scum feels uncomfortable when 3 of them are all off of their scummy partner's dunk d1 with only other 2 other townies not being on it.

[innocentvillager]

im not sure about the hiraki or marksman anymore

but raya or a50 feels like it should be a thing, im trying to remember why

[Marksman]

Scum doesn't enter this game with the mindset of bussing a partner day 1. It depends on their competence level, but at this point I assume scum knows that you need to be very anti-bus in nightless. Yeah, scum could've hopped on for towncred later, or had a vote linger from early that they couldn't justify removing, but there's a significant chance of no scum being on it in a game like this. Like, it's not the most likely scenario; most likely is we have 1+ scum on there, I agree, but it's not negligible at all.

[Marksman]

Hiraki, Lavender, and 1 of Raya/Almo is what makes sense to me right now