Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[innocentvillager]

yeah but this was on D1 when they were probably still just figuring things out. i imagine the fear of town dunking all 5 ppl off the wagon expecting to find a higher concentration of scum there is naturally scary and some they would've at least discussed for someone to hop on the wagon. He was kind of at D-1 for a bit too, it's not like town quickdunked him

if it makes you feel better i don't think that there is any real difference in dunking you or isis first. we can get isis first if you'd prefer

[Marksman]

Which is actually no one on the Wey wagon

Surviving members of the Wey wagon are Casey, inno, Isis, and I.

[innocentvillager]

Hiraki, Lavender, and 1 of Raya/Almo is what makes sense to me right now

i don't hate this team if you think they could've all stayed off with some small chance.

[Marksman]

I townread Isis though, so I disagree. You're treating 0 scum being on the wagon like it has a 0% chance, when it should be more of a 10 to 40% chance or whatever.

[Marksman]

Hiraki, Lavender, and 1 of Raya/Almo is what makes sense to me right now

i don't hate this team if you think they could've all stayed off with some small chance.

Yeah, I like all 3 of the others individually. Probably wrong with how things are going so far, but there's a chance lul

[innocentvillager]

why is Isis town? i don;'t see any individual post that makes me think it can't come from scum

[Marksman]

She had fresh takes every time she came to the thread. Like, nuanced thoughts that I think are hard to fake. One I can remember now is that read on Nono being town because they'd want to hammer or something along those lines early on.

Anyways, I'm retiring for the night. Marathon continues tomorrow.

[innocentvillager]

seems fakeable when scum!Isis is already in the mindset of doing so herself for towncred.

there were many reasons to townread Nono I'm not impressed with her evolution on that slot.

[Isis]

This is roundabouts the phase where town!inno admits he ought to be voting the captain of 4 misdunks because he never produced a reason to townread his RVS meme, and the phase where scum!inno comes up with off the wall stuff that maintains his sweep.

It actually might be a bit more likely that inno is scum than Hiraki if he feels uncomfortable transitioning reads as scum, but the simplest thing is they're just scum together.

I don't have any idea on the third though.

Everyone else's approach to this phase has seemed more genuine

[innocentvillager]

and there's the discredit right on cue

[Isis]

I wasn't planning to hammer weyclone until i happened to long on drunk and find you guys had put him at D1

I only thought he seemed a little scummy, I was actually a little lost on him being a hivemind obvscum read, but maybe that's why I townread nono more

*log on

[Isis]

What does "discredit" mean in this context?

[Lavender]

Completely forgot to check here o.o
I didn't want to lynch Nono in the first place, I'm curious as to why Casey all of a sudden decided to townread Hiraki with nothing backing it.

[innocentvillager]

nvm if you ask i don't think you're trying to discredit me.

[innocentvillager]

i think we should all reread all of D1 especially the interactions around clone and clone's posting with the knowledge of people we know are town now and give our thoughts tomorrow. i feel like that might be the biggest source of information because we KNOW so many alignments from back then.

[Isis]

I think that's a good idea. I might or might not have time to do so but I'll provide my take if I'm able

In particular I think all the slots might be more readable day 1 because the unusual deadline was warping everyone's play the lease.

Spicer and Lavender's slots were AWOL for that phase though unfortunately (Raya in the back half some unless that was day 2)

[Casey]

@Casey - What changed your mind from declaring Marksman/Nono as your locktown reads that you were never voting?

I started doubting myself. I need to stop.

[Casey]

lav/isis are not partners

Curious how you came to that because they're still a big fat 0 on my board

[Casey]

im hard-assuming casey is town at this point i completely give up if casey is scum

I'm hard-assuming you're town too because the more you post the more you sound like an equally frantic but more realistic brother to me.

[Casey]

mostly because it's so unlikely that every single scum was off the wey wagon given that slot's scumminess and the fact that he was the leading wagon

?
Given the slot's scuminess, it's possible the wagon was natural and all town, and managed to beat out the scumdriven counterwagon(s). The assumption of at least 1 scum being on the Wey wagon is really arbitrary.

Also, scum keeping each other alive in nightless is important. You always end up with a couple or more of obvtownies that scum can never misdunk or nightkill in nightless games, so it's all the more important to keep everyone around and gain parity earlier. I think there's unlikely to be more than 1 scum on the Wey wagon, and I could see there being 0.

Why does this read like something you would post in a maf QT in order to coach your buddies?

[Lavender]

Well, I'm here if yall need anything |.o)

[Casey]

i think we should all reread all of D1 especially the interactions around clone and clone's posting with the knowledge of people we know are town now and give our thoughts tomorrow. i feel like that might be the biggest source of information because we KNOW so many alignments from back then.

I did recently.

Mark and WLC had the biggest kerfuffle that lasted from the "explain the reads on the people who haven't posted" to WLC's ultimate dunk.

Nono, turns out, was actually right all along with their master plan.

He also had small conversations with me and A50.

CE and Hellbooks bothered him briefly, but he didn't really pay them much attention.

All other posts were NAI for me. He really avoided any true confrontation.

[Casey]

Well, I'm here if yall need anything |.o)

I'd like you to call someone out on something.

[Casey]

Specifically Isis or Raya.

[Lavender]

Well, I'm here if yall need anything |.o)

I'd like you to call someone out on something.

Why did you absolutely superfluously insta-switch your reads on Nono and Hiraki?

PE: Oh o.o