Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Almost50]

If I had to make a team, I'd be throwing darts. Probably Marksman/Isis/Lavender but again, throwing darts.

We have been throwing darts all game long now, and I'm afraid paranoia has already crept on me I can see almost anyone flipping red (Ironically, Casey is now my top TR).

Like, everybody has been ruling out IV (and even I did so based on him being early on Wey), but after 6 dunks I find myself second guessing that read. Why does IV appear on each and every dunked wagon?

As I said, I can probably see almost anyone -aside from Casey- as scum, but we all know we only have 3 scums alive; not SIX.

The funny thing is even when I take a step back and look at why X could be scum compared to why Y could also be scum I dunno if I should laugh or cry, because my reasoning appear contradictory even to me.

Picture this thought going through your mind:

IV could be scum because he's on each and every dunk
Lav could be scum because she hasn't been on a single dunk

Can you see my dilemma? I dunno if scum are helping town misdunk or letting town do all the dirty work.

[innocentvillager]

i have been on every dunk because WE HAVE BEEN MOVING WAY TOO SLOWLY THIS GAME AS TOWN. We have to make like 5 more dunks to win and we literally do not have enough time to talk this out as a town anymore and get votes properly, so I really propose that we just give the game to Casey and me (or just Casey) and everyone complies.

literally every dunk we did I have been successively less happy about.

I'll take responsibility for Hayasaka and hellbooks, I genuinely wanted to flip those two.

I did not approve of Chem Elem or Nono, especially not Nono. But the game was stalling out

i regret in hindsight but also in general about not pushing for Hiraki instead like Isis suggested because it would've been better to flip that slot early. Maybe I let Nono's adamant scumread on me get to me a little, idk.

[Lavender]

@innocent @A50
Let's just lynch Hiraki alright, they're really my top and only scum read at this point. If they're town just lynch me.

[Lavender]

I say everyone who doesn't vote them is suspicious, they're legit saying lynch them, so let's lynch them come on come on!

[Marksman]

Inno is right that we have extremely little time left and we need to dunk again

right now

. The fact this game ends over a weekend is also extremely inconvenient.

No way in Ruby Red am I for this "handing all power of the dunks to Casey and Inno" though. Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?

This game can still be won, but people need to start voting like this instant.

[innocentvillager]

just to clarify:

letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.
letting town collectively decide with this much time left is PROBABLY SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE THAN RANDOM.

for reference (using the same simulation i talked about earlier):

random is 70% assuming me and Casey are town
random is 40% assuming Casey is town

[innocentvillager]

so at this point i am against anyone deciding any more elims except casey. sorry.

[Lavender]

Honestly, if Hiraki is town their reads have been sadsadsadsadsadsadsadsadsadsad.
_o--<

[Marksman]

Raya, you've said multiple times now that you can't see yourself voting anyone but Hiraki, so then why aren't you voting him yet??

Inno, same with you, you gave a general sentiment of cutting your ties with him or implying you think he could be scum, so put your vote down.

[Isis]

Is Hiraki still not hammered?

Is this really that hard?

[innocentvillager]

No way in Ruby Red am I for this "handing all power of the dunks to Casey and Inno" though. Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?

i think you are delusional if you are town here and you think we can just talk out 5 dunks in less than 2 days and hope that 3 scum doesn't influence the town to win way less often than normal.

[Lavender]

UNVOTE: Hiraki
ubfwbedkjwebdwefjwk I'm going to wait for Hiraki actually to give final reads

[Marksman]

just to clarify:

letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.
letting town collectively decide with this much time left is PROBABLY SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE THAN RANDOM.

for reference (using the same simulation i talked about earlier):

random is 70% assuming me and Casey are town
random is 40% assuming Casey is town

so at this point i am against anyone deciding any more elims except casey. sorry.

That's if Casey is town. I townread her, but letting her decide the dunks is strictly worse than going for who I think is scum, unless I think I am absolutely garbage at mafia.

P-edit: It's possible but we just need to super speed up and completely go for it. Like, what's our alternative here?

[Lavender]

I shouldn't join games where pure-reading is nesscary ever again dear lord sake (._.

[innocentvillager]

That's if Casey is town. I townread her, but letting her decide the dunks is strictly worse than going for who I think is scum, unless I think I am absolutely garbage at mafia.

but this is the whole problem in mafia. adverse selection. it's especially true when reads are all over the place. Assuming you are town, when you are right your wagons are much less likely to go through than if they are wrong, in which case they will almost certainly go through. This is the "worse than random" aspect.

I have given the alternative already, and I like the baseline random win rates from my model. They are much better than just letting scum influence what's going on, as I've said.

[Isis]

I have never played a game like this and I don't know if this deadline will be impossible or not that hard since it is an amount of time people have for crunch deadlines all the time and maybe adding extra dunks doesn't add that much difficulty if people are already online for the previous ones

I'm pretty unlikely to be refusing to hammer people Casey wants to dunk but if someone I townread as much as Nono was alive I wouldn't want to vote just because we nominated a captain

[Marksman]

No way in Ruby Red am I for this "handing all power of the dunks to Casey and Inno" though. Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?

i think you are delusional if you are town here and you think we can just talk out 5 dunks in less than 2 days and hope that 3 scum doesn't influence the town to win way less often than normal.

I'm going for the solve I said earlier, that's like the last hope I'm clinging to for saving this game. If it's correct, and with twilight time added by Ruby Red, we can dunk in time and win this game.

[innocentvillager]

you're not convinced by my solve, i doubt im going to be convinced by yours (again we can try, but again we have less than 2 days), and when you are right there's a

big chance scum doesn't let that happen

.

unless people are super super super confident and are willing to give a super compelling case for people that makes them way way way more or less likely than random to be town/scum i don't want to even try speeding the game up and doing things normally.

[innocentvillager]

i don't think it's significantly less or more likely that Hiraki is scum or town here. I can easily see town!Hiraki just being wrong and scum just letting the pushes happen to set him up for a misdunk later. I can easily see scum!Hiraki accepting his role in actively only pushing the misdunks himself as a sacrifice for the team

[Marksman]

I really think we should just go for it. Stalling on dunking Hiraki for even longer only assures the loss via the timer. I think he flips scum here, and going from 3/5 to 2/5 is a big deal, if you're worried about scum having too large of a voice for influencing the dunks.

[Marksman]

[innocentvillager]

i am waiting for casey. if she does not show up by (expired on 2020-08-16 00:09:10) I hammer. I consider anyone who hammers Hiraki before either of these events a scumclaim.

[innocentvillager]

@Casey when you get here, we should go with whoever you believe. If you think Hiraki is the best dunk INDEPENDENTLY (I think the crowd selecting Hiraki makes him slightly more likely to be town than random barring any reads, but I can't deny that he has pushed 4 misdunks and scum has plenty of motivation to do that) of everyone else we should go for it, but if you don't please say so and we should switch.

We really need all TOWNIES to cooperate with this plan. If you are town, PLEASE THINK about it independently because I think scum is more likely to resist this plan than town because they are so close to winning, they don't want to leave it up to chance. For a town in as shit shape as we are CHANCE is our friend.

I know it's hard to give up CONTROL to one (mostly cleared) person who we don't know will make the right decisions. I KNOW it's hard to put down our personal convictions and reads. But really I think it's necessarily if we are going to maximize the chance we win collectively. Mafia is NOT JUST ABOUT YOU BEING RIGHT. It's about actually getting scum eliminated.

[innocentvillager]

honestly i think i want townies to agree to this plan before Casey gives any reads because there's a problem there

@TOWNIES please make it your priority to think about this ASAP and agree to it or give a compelling case why you can think of some good alternative. BUT THE CLOCK IS TICKING

[innocentvillager]

and we can obviously reevaluate the plan if we get down to one scum because there's essentially no scum influence there so if that's your concern... well let's just get there first.