Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[innocentvillager]

again, imagine Hiraki flips green and we don't have a town leader leading us in 3v4 lylo. we are so screwed in that case because the moment a town votes another town scum can blitz.

this is part of the benefit of this strategy. i mentioned a while ago that if we got two clears and they decided on some random dunking order that town was like almost certain to win (80-90%+ depending on the exact numbers) assuming those two clears were actually town. Obviously we didn't implement it at the time (and should not have), but look where we (kind of) are now.

in this setup if scum can infiltrate the top townreads they win. If town finds two genuine clears, scum are almost screwed. If town can even find one clear, town win rate increases drastically increases because there is an unbiased voice leading and they can come up with an order that is presumably at least as good as random.

so with all this kerfuffling the past 7 days we've found Casey as a universal townread so by all intents and purposes we've found a semi-clear. That's not something to scoff at, that takes lots of effort and discussion and interactions and whatnot.

if town!Casey ends up "losing us the game" I don't blame her one bit. I blame luck. You do what you can, but at the end of the day reads are imperfect. They're a lot more random than we think

[Lavender]

VOTE: Hiraki
Well let’s hope and see.

[Casey]

This is what my sad lil chart looks like now.



Hiraki red: Next choice is A50

Hiraki green: Next choice is Raya

[Isis]

Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?

I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool

Lavender come level up our relationship

Why'd you unvote Hiraki?

[Lavender]

Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?

I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool

Lavender come level up our relationship

Why'd you unvote Hiraki?

Lmao XD
I unvoted because
A. I’m really bad at reads, like really bad, so I second-guessed myself.
And
B. I wanted them to have a chance to say something before they got hammered.

[Hiraki]

I really do flip town here still so please make sure if you have a vote and you're not scum that you've unvoted at this point (per last VC, we're good on this but this applies to the end of the game at this rate). I think Raya is a bad choice but I am also 0-5 this game. Not hitting great. I still stick hard with my Marksman read, could be 0-6.

Good luck!

[Isis]

Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?

I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool

Lavender come level up our relationship

Why'd you unvote Hiraki?

Lmao XD
I unvoted because
A. I’m really bad at reads, like really bad, so I second-guessed myself.
And
B. I wanted them to have a chance to say something before they got hammered.

If you're usually bad at reads, do you ever try finding townreads and trusting them?

[Lavender]

Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?

I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool

Lavender come level up our relationship

Why'd you unvote Hiraki?

Lmao XD
I unvoted because
A. I’m really bad at reads, like really bad, so I second-guessed myself.
And
B. I wanted them to have a chance to say something before they got hammered.

If you're usually bad at reads, do you ever try finding townreads and trusting them?

I mean I think I do?
Maybe maybe...I can’t remember past times where I’ve decided to trust someone always except this game where we’re on our last stand.

[Lavender]

I really do flip town here still so please make sure if you have a vote and you're not scum that you've unvoted at this point (per last VC, we're good on this but this applies to the end of the game at this rate). I think Raya is a bad choice but I am also 0-5 this game. Not hitting great. I still stick hard with my Marksman read, could be 0-6.

Good luck!

I mean kinda just wanna hit Marksman and see if you got an 0-6 or 1-5 if you flip green

I don’t mean to be derogatory with this sentence, it’s just what I think will be the most interesting and fun _o—<

[Hiraki]

the only reason i'm glad we didn't flip you yet is because i would be the LYLO lynch

[innocentvillager]

i think the scumteam is isis/marksman/a50. id be tickled if im right.

but as we've said I will let Casey do the dunking.

[Lavender]

|.o)
I feel like I’ll start spamming Win or Lose Win or Lose when LYLO is here.

[Casey]

Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?

I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool

Lavender come level up our relationship

Why'd you unvote Hiraki?

This has got to be the most bizarre post I've read in the latter half of the game.

[innocentvillager]

casey would you consider the team i posted above?

it scores decently in your assocations matrix

[Casey]

Hiraki red: Next choice is A50

Hiraki green: Next choice is Isis

[innocentvillager]

Hey inno, would you like to help us dunk hiraki?

i refuse to vote my Leader

But...

scum in {Isis, Leader, spicer, Lav} ?

Those not on Nono yet, please consider what Casey just said as well as the short deadline and that we'd need time for mdlo (I guess that's the abbreviation?) and please hammer Nono. I'm almost certain this flips red

we have to fucking marathon this shit if we are going to win, like I don't think anyone realizes how little time we have left, we need like 5 more dunks to win probably

I understand which is why I'd really like you to vote Nono very soon.

The fact that the dunk hasn't gone through yet as Casey points out means Nono is probably scum

I hate waiting for flips so much but at least we can make use of this time that the timer's stopped.

Nono WAS DUNKED ON, HE WAS A

VANILLA TOWNIE

Who would you guys suspect if Nono flips red?

This has got to be the most frustrating game

I need to re-evaluate but there isn't much time left

this progression is so towny ugh

[Lavender]

Say when does Ruby come on?
I don’t want to accidentally oversleep the whole discussion (｡-_-｡)

[Hiraki]

I also don't see how me going green means Raya-red but I'm willing to be wrong here.

[Isis]

Why is it bizarre?

[innocentvillager]

i like raya.

I FUCKING KNEW SPICER WAS TOWN

i got lucky

I'M A GOD

[Casey]

Yeah I'm willing to townclear Raya despite weak connections.

[innocentvillager]

marksman has been so incredibly underwhelming lately and bordering on straight scummy.

Early on I gave that slot a pass. As the situation worsens this slot seems to care less and produce less useful content. Lately they've gone far to try and dispel my idea that one of Isis/Marksman is scum -- that was like the slot's one contribution. This feels consistent with them thinking "oh they're just going to dunk raya/hiraki in some order and we (Marks/Isis) are widely townread so whatever"

[Isis]

I don't know how Hiraki usually acts after hammered but I'm hopeful he's going to flip scum. There's a lot of benefit in this situation to twilight troll

[innocentvillager]

there's also a lot of benefit for scum!Isis to mess up our rhythm and discussion assuming town!Hiraki.

if Hiraki flips red I am willing to almost clear Isis for that comment.

[Casey]

IV can be townclear too. Unless we end up in a Raya/IV/me situation. Then I will cry.