Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[innocentvillager]

if that situation happened i think the game would be over (town win)

[Isis]

If he doesn't flip red and Casey sticks with her choice we lose, so I hope you have to "almost clear" me.
I don't understand what I said that made her change her mind but I kind of don't mind losing an almost lost game to chat with Lavender. Some of how she thinks about mafia games is interesting

[innocentvillager]

sucks to get caught, scum!

honestly I think you played a great scumgame. i only ignored you because everyone seemed to townread you for some reason and I thought maybe I was just not seeing it

ftr I never did move you past a slight townlean

[Isis]

That doesn't make sense from you when you were considering "clearing" me a moment ago. I'm not sure why Casey is townbinning you when you've been really inconsistent throughout the game.

[Isis]

You might be town though

You're one of those kinds of players I find kind of inscrutable

then at the end of the game the moderator says what it is and I'm like "oh this is a clockwise not a counterclockwise" and it makes sense

[innocentvillager]

I'm not sure why Casey is townbinning you when you've been really inconsistent throughout the game.

jesus this quote is scummy

i think you're literally just desperate and upset at this point now I've figured out the scumteam and we're moving in the right direction when before it was almost a surefire win

[Hiraki]

I do think the solve is Marksman/Isis/?

Clearly not a good track record for me but that's my final guess. Lav? I guess for X?

I didn't like Isis' buddying with the votes situation. Felt like fake pocketing to me.

[innocentvillager]

when you were considering "clearing" me a moment ago

i will get on my knees and apologize if hiraki flips red because then i am probably just confbiasing on you and wrong

there's no reason for scum!you to give us doubt when we are already incorrectly talking about Hiraki as if he will flip green

[Isis]

I mean you're correct that it looks like I may lose the game on the next vote but that is because I'm town?? I would be less annoyed as scum, I would still have a chance to win from partners

[innocentvillager]

I do think the solve is Marksman/Isis/?

Clearly not a good track record for me but that's my final guess. Lav? I guess for X?

I didn't like Isis' buddying with the votes situation. Felt like fake pocketing to me.

how do you feel about A50?

and how do you feel about my hypothesis that lav/isis are not partners because these interactions don't look SvS:

Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?

I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool

Lavender come level up our relationship

Why'd you unvote Hiraki?

Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)

i really don't think this is scum!Lav talking about a partner

[innocentvillager]

A50 in my opinion has also been super underwhelming lately. They made one useless post about how Casey is town and then went away again.

IMO scum often show their true colors as the situation gets worse and worse for town and their win gets more imminent. Their activity frequently drops off, they care less about the game, there's literally no need to put in the effort anymore when it looks like town just self-destructs.

I think Marksman and A50 are fitting this paradigm well. scum!A50 doesn't have to try anymore. The chance Marksman and Isis get dunked in the short amount of time is just so low now when the town is focused on Hiraki and Raya. Same with scum!Marksman, the only thing he really responded to lately was that one post i made where I included THIS VERY TEAM POSSIBILITY with the 100% solve. Obviously it was kind of hypothetical but he had to go against that in particular and not make efforts to reconsider his reads. Then this weird adamant refusal to hand over power to a clear when it's obvious that the idea at least has some merit.

They just need one scum kind of blending in with the town and continue trying to be protown in case. That would be Isis.

[innocentvillager]

If I had to make a team, I'd be throwing darts. Probably Marksman/Isis/Lavender but again, throwing darts.

We have been throwing darts all game long now, and I'm afraid paranoia has already crept on me I can see almost anyone flipping red (Ironically, Casey is now my top TR).

Like, everybody has been ruling out IV (and even I did so based on him being early on Wey), but after 6 dunks I find myself second guessing that read. Why does IV appear on each and every dunked wagon?

As I said, I can probably see almost anyone -aside from Casey- as scum, but we all know we only have 3 scums alive; not SIX.

The funny thing is even when I take a step back and look at why X could be scum compared to why Y could also be scum I dunno if I should laugh or cry, because my reasoning appear contradictory even to me.

Picture this thought going through your mind:

IV could be scum because he's on each and every dunk
Lav could be scum because she hasn't been on a single dunk

Can you see my dilemma? I dunno if scum are helping town misdunk or letting town do all the dirty work.

FoS: Raya OR A50
FoS: Hiraki OR Marksman

You gonna explain these?

I townread Isis though, so I disagree. You're treating 0 scum being on the wagon like it has a 0% chance, when it should be more of a 10 to 40% chance or whatever.

I don't know how Hiraki usually acts after hammered but I'm hopeful he's going to flip scum. There's a lot of benefit in this situation to twilight troll

That doesn't make sense from you when you were considering "clearing" me a moment ago. I'm not sure why Casey is townbinning you when you've been really inconsistent throughout the game.

Yeah I don't want to play around Casey!scum at this point even though it's not impossible

here is each of them trying to fight the solve. fight the optimal chance for town to win. why is fighting the solve scummy? because it is the strategy with the MOST REASONABLE CHANCE OF SUCCESS GIVEN OUR SHIT SITUATION but their attitudes towards these are all doubtcasting.

town thrive on

probability

, coming up with the highest probability solutions and pushing reasonably probable conclusions.

scum thrive on

possibility

, discrediting reasonably probable theories by town. They seek to add more "what if this", "why are we assuming this", "this could still be true"

A50: "why are we giving IV a pass? he's been on all dunks? Lav COULD be scum?"

Marksman: "why are you assuming these are the partners? maf can still be all off the way, it's possible?"

Isis: "If I had a good townread, I wouldn't want Casey to decide for me! Hiraki could be twilight trolling! why are we giving inno a pass? they could be town, they could be scum"

THESE THREE ARE THE ONES WITH THESE ATTITUDES NEAR THE END OF DAY. I simply think they are showing their true colors and motivations beyond all the D1, D2, Dx whatever fluff protown talk. I simply do NOT get this sense from anyone else in the game.

[Hiraki]

how do you feel about A50?

and how do you feel about my hypothesis that lav/isis are not partners because these interactions don't look SvS:

A50/Lav is the part I'm not sold on. It could go either way. I think they should be kept for the absolute last day.

[Raya36]

A50 in my opinion has also been super underwhelming lately. They made one useless post about how Casey is town and then went away again.

IMO scum often show their true colors as the situation gets worse and worse for town and their win gets more imminent. Their activity frequently drops off, they care less about the game, there's literally no need to put in the effort anymore when it looks like town just self-destructs.

I think Marksman and A50 are fitting this paradigm well. scum!A50 doesn't have to try anymore. The chance Marksman and Isis get dunked in the short amount of time is just so low now when the town is focused on Hiraki and Raya. Same with scum!Marksman, the only thing he really responded to lately was that one post i made where I included THIS VERY TEAM POSSIBILITY with the 100% solve. Obviously it was kind of hypothetical but he had to go against that in particular and not make efforts to reconsider his reads. Then this weird adamant refusal to hand over power to a clear when it's obvious that the idea at least has some merit.

They just need one scum kind of blending in with the town and continue trying to be protown in case. That would be Isis.

I like this logic and I'd be willing to go for A50 based on it

[Marksman]

I haven't got much time to play this weekend, inno, and you're confusing my confidence in my own abilities and my idea of fun with scuminess. Personally, I have much more fun in mafia if my voice and opinion matters and I can find scum and get them dunked. Giving someone all of the power suddenly makes my voice mean much less, it's less fun. If there was a game with an IC revealed at the start, I would hate if we just sheeped whatever dunks they wanted; that's barely mafia, and this situation is even less secure since we can't be sure of Casey's alignment.

Everyone's agreed with this plan anyway, so what can you do. Carry us to victory, Casey.

[Marksman]

IMO scum often show their true colors as the situation gets worse and worse for town and their win gets more imminent. Their activity frequently drops off, they care less about the game, there's literally no need to put in the effort anymore when it looks like town just self-destructs.

I think Marksman and A50 are fitting this paradigm well.

This isn't true at all, I've been trying to get town to do stuff whenever I'm online.

[Marksman]

I might have some time at the end of this day, that'll hopefully be after we see the flip.

[Casey]

Carry us to victory, Casey.

That's what I'm concerned about.

[Casey]

Sec, gonna review early Isis.

[Casey]

This exchange. This is the one that bothered me so much about Isis, because of how

wrong

Isis's read of the situation was.

VOTE: Casey
Her posts are fun to read but I get somewhat of a vibe most of them are meant to look good.after a spat with Hiraki she voted him seemingly on principle rather than playing in a way that's likely to convince others to vote him even though she's so confident her vote is staying there for the rest of the game, supposedly.

@Isis: "after a spat with Hiraki she voted him seemingly on principle"

Excuse me, I voted Hiraki in #157, before any "spat" occurred. What are you talking about? And seemingly on principle? What principle is that?

Locked your vote's movement, tomato tomato

By "seemingly on principle" I mean you're voting him in a way that doesn't actually seem like its because you believe he will flip scum

This is wrong. I'm absolutely convinced Hiraki will flip scum.

Isis tried to move the goalposts. I don't like how Isis just gave up this train of thought. The next question to me is about... Marksman?

How's your intuition, Casey?

I want to subscribe to your current train of thought

If you're a gut player, does this mean you think Marksman is town, you just think he's wrong?

Then Isis hammers Wey and realizes it after the fact. D2 rolls in and Isis plunks votes on Lavender and Hayasaka. Doesn't mention me despite still voting me.

Then this exchange happens:

I townread Raya, although I don't agree with her reads for the most part. I think scum would do an emptier catchup given that pace of the game and she chose to give us a lot.

She didn't really give us a lot.

I really don't like how Isis (nor Raya?!) didn't respond to this jab.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Lavender
It's probably a good time to vote one person at a time because of chainhammering?

Why is this formed as a question when you're taking action on it? That really bugs me.

Also, this is where I was unvoted. Isis had been doing a crazy job of keeping a vote on me for the majority of the game yet never engaging with me past D1. Or even mentioning that I'm a townread?? You'd think that'd come up somewhere.

The next time I'm mentioned is here:

I don't understand Casey's pairing list

I want to townlock Casey and I don't even care if it's wrong look at the pretty colors omg

That's like so much work

I generally agree with most of the cells

THAT'S what you townread me for? Like, nothing before then?

This progression is SO bizarre.

Then we get the "Casey up to Bat" saga, then Isis waxing about not wanting to play around a scum me.

I think this entire read on me has been BS from the beginning. Starting from a vote that she couldn't defend, it devolved into a quiet unvote, despite my multiple attempts to swing a bat at a hornet's nest. Then the only reason Isis vocalized for TRing me is because I made a pretty chart.

I think it's all BS.

There are no hornets—only a wolf.

[innocentvillager]

nice! isis next dunk it seems when Hiraki flips green

[Ruby Red]

Votecount 7.Final

Target	Wagon
Hiraki (GOT EM)	Marksman, Isis, Hiraki, Casey, innocentvillager
Lavender (L-4)	Hiraki
Not Voting (3)	Almost50, Raya36, Lavender

With 8 alive, it's 5 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-17 13:34:59) until the robots rise up.

[Ruby Red]

Hiraki WAS DUNKED ON, HE WAS A

VANILLA TOWNIE

[Ruby Red]

~

[Ruby Red]

~