Open 789: Two-Fold 2d3 [Game Over]

[Dannflor]

Kill, Dann? That will have to wait until we eliminate someone.

I think Pine has to give out fruit first as well

[Bell]

Gamma her catch ups are uniquely not scum to me, or at least not like any scum catch up I've ever seen before. He's willing to cross anyone, get in their face with his opinion and is interactive when he's around.

Mentioned Dann my initial read was vaguely scummy, he was thinking outloud an after meta'ing a single town game of his I didn't see an instance of even him doing it there. Then it went into abstract stuff I just mentioned. Points towards town is interactive, generating/updating reads (though I think he of all people based on his constant use of stale reads as a scum tell would be the most self-aware of that), but it doesn't really look like he's watching and waiting either. Already mentioned helpfulness, trying to create harmony, doesn't seem particularly afraid of interacting with any players.

Talked about Jake. leaned weak scum to neutral and then last few posts turned into weak town lean due to vague feelings that I've been here before and this doesn't end well for town. If he's scum the "I hope this helps if I die" was a nice touch.

Marashu: For every reason he is scum there's a townie or NAI reason he isn't.
Penguin: I don't really need to explain this do I.

Dunstral he's playing worse than the one newbie game I played with him. He's clearly thread avoiding, but he knows this. So I'm just like, wut. Could be coasting scum unengaged or something else, I dunno. He did just kind of zoom in when Jake got to E-1, which was nice. He said he would catch up in the game and he really isn't I don't think he plans too?

A50: Possible coasting scum, cognitive overload, minor thread avoidance but he explained why this may be and I can see that reason. His focus seems outside of scum hunting RN. In general I think it's anti-town not to share reads when directly asked, but town have done it to me before so meh.

Testarossa. Kind of the same coasting scum routine. I don't really see anything wrong in what she's written per se, but the post frequency is a lot like A50/Dunn/Marashu I'd like to interact with her more, but she posts and leaves like Marashu which makes that difficult.

[Bell]

I also noticed or think I noticed but maybe I'm misremembering that he seemed unusually responsive to criticism or would adjust his play after someone mentioned a scum tell. Kind of like watching someone adapt in real time to people's preferences.

people get annoyed at me in real life because I tend to adjust my wants to fit the wants of others

it's a character flaw

although I'm somewhat trying to use mafia to get better at that + confrontation

Huh. Good to know.

[PenguinPower]

Hmm. I like Bell.

[Dannflor]

I agree on Gamma town

[Dannflor]

I don't actually have any scum reads in the top half of this game. By top half I mean the top posters if you go to activity overview. I think upwards of Jake is all more likely to be town than not. I would be somewhat wary of that in another game but I think with the amount of (what I suspect to be) TvT conflict in this game it makes sense for scum to be taking more of a back foot. If scum lies within the testarossa/dunnstral/marashu/A50/PP conglomerate, at no point during this day phase have they really been encouraged or forced to do any more than they have done; things have gone their way.

[Bell]

Thanks Penguin. Have any thoughts on Jake?

[Marashu]

porque no los dos?

I had to google this. :V

I agree with Dann that the lack of survivalism speaks a bit in Jake's favour. He is basically just rolling over.

However I am still not seeing anything that is changing my mind here objectively. Even after the replacement the slot looks pretty self-concerned, asking questions that aren't really leading anywhere to and no real attempts at sorting people (besides maybe Mena?). Was kind of hoping for more here.

I agree hard with this. He just keeps coming in, calling me and someone else, depending on the temperature I guess, scum and then going away. How do you honestly defend that slot? Because doing nothing isn't scummy? I've done this game before too. I don't get how I'm the one being called out for AtE when Jake is literally just coming in and moping about doing his witty ERP thing and then leaving.

Multiple people have asked him for reasons why he thinks myself and others are scum. They're still not here. The above just proves that he has no intentions of going further than stating something.

The quoted part sounds like defending Jake as town. You hard agree with it, but the tone from what you follow up with makes it sound like you're accusing them of at the very least being unhelpful town if not scum. So do you hard agree with the stance but have a different conclusion? Or do you think this is scum indicative?

See:

In post 1219, Menalque wrote:
well like, ur alignment would show bro, so we'd know if you were town or scum

So besides the advantage of knowing whether we hit scum or not (and I do think there's a decent chance of this slot flipping scum), having a wagon to analyze, and NKs, because this is multiball if we can end the day before the scum teams have things sorted, doesn't that mean there's a better chance they hit the other team rather than town? I remember hearing that it's usually to town's benefit to have a shorter D1, and 2 of the 3 games where I lost as scum had D1 end early, if I recall correctly. I'd imagine that especially applies in multiball.

u realise I was being entirely facetious when I wrote that, yes?

I think it looks kinda of bad for mara that he's trying to use something I wrote that was fundamentally a joke/obviously a terrible reason to support his vote here

Saved me the trouble of needing to write out the obvious part of my answer and go on to the rest of my reasoning, though.

UNVOTE:

I've been missing too many points, and my reads are out of date. I'm going to give this game a thorough re-read in the morning and sort out where my head is at.

I guess like

I think posts like this come from scum a lot. like they feel like they need to justify their absence a lot more than town normally do who like, if they have time to check in more typically use that time to do what sorting they can instead of just apologising

That's not an apology for absence. It's an apology for being wrong on too many counts. Like, I'd cite a post, and when I go back to defend my stance, re-reading the source came across as different from the first time, so I'd need to change my position. I had also not really assessed some slots (Umlaut/Bell, Gypyx, A50, Testarossa) so my reads being out of date was especially true for these slots. "Missing" is referring to accuracy in this post.

[Bell]

Kinda sorta extremely sad that marashu looked at the game and decided his post for the day should be that one.

[Hiraki]

The quoted part sounds like defending Jake as town. You hard agree with it, but the tone from what you follow up with makes it sound like you're accusing them of at the very least being unhelpful town if not scum. So do you hard agree with the stance but have a different conclusion? Or do you think this is scum indicative?

You're correct on the intent. I try to see if I'm being wrong by putting them in town shoes. In the case of Jake, I see no reason for him to be town if he doesn't act like town. Therefore, the next best thing to do is to see if he acts like a variant of town (not role variant, just 'personality' variant - at least somewhat of an expected value) that wouldn't normally act like town and if that makes sense. I'd like to think I'm a pretty good judge in that regard.

Confused town? Nope, not really. He keeps posting junk. Paranoid town? Nope, he's okay with posting a lot of junk and not just walking away. I don't really have much more that it could be. If anything, it's exhausting the resources of "in what way does Jake fit town" and if I can't get an answer, I'm not trying to fit an answer. The survivalist portion of the discussion we had a few days ago surrounded that. In that scenario, I would expect Jake to be a bit more open and honest. I don't think he's lying per se (and by that, I mean lying in terms of what he 'believes' rather than the actual reads themselves) but I don't think he's open at all. And my definition of 'lying per se' is borderline lying anyway.

Kinda sorta extremely sad that marashu looked at the game and decided his post for the day should be that one.

Outside of the weird middle quote, it's a better post than 90% of Mara's posts.

[Dunnstral]

Why would we not

keep in mind I still need to read

You're going to need to prove a positive rather than waiting for someone to prove a negative when trying to eliminate someone

Saying "why not eliminate x" isn't how things really work

[Dunnstral]

Dramonic, Hiraki,

I think there's a good chance you're both town, at least one of you believes I might be town,

let's real talk.

I think you guys need to pull your heads out of your asses and realize that just because you haven't gotten along with Menalque in this game specifically doesn't mean he isn't town. And at this point refusing to reevaluate him is extremely anti-town.

First of all, it is extremely rare (particularly in the site's current meta) for scum to top post in a game. What's even rarer is for that top poster to have OVER DOUBLE the next poster's total post count. Menalque has more posts than Dramonic and Hiraki COMBINED. The last scum player I saw who could maintain that type of presence was RadiantCowbells.

But okay, you might say, Menalque has posted a lot of fluff. Or he's posting a lot because he's been caught since page 3 and he's flailing. Let's ignore his mild temper tantrum from the last few pages that he absolutely never throws as scum because all it accomplishes is destroying his own credibility. Let's ignore the fact that his frustration with the game reads extremely genuine and it's backed up by 300+ posts of earnest solving that no one in this game approaches. I say we should ignore it because even though the AtE here (not all AtE is scum) SHOULD be confirming Menalque is town to you, you're going to brush it off as "lul he's frustrated scum who got caught."

Why isn't he frustrated scum who just got caught? Consider the fact that he's continually tried to question both of you to get a better read on your alignments despite the fact that the majority of your responses have been "lul caught scum." Unless he thinks he can pocket you, he has very little reason to do this as scum versus primarily appealing to the crowd. But, even despite dramonic being like a brick wall to talk to, Menalque has evolved his scum read on dramonic from early in the game to a town read. That's not something that furthers his win condition as scum. Continuing to try to engage with you fruitlessly is also a hallmark of town desperation, not scum desperation. Neither of you carry the influence in this game that your confidence suggests, scum!Menalque does not need to be afraid of you or appease you in anyway. Menalque has consistently tried to get some kind of good faith engagement going with both of you.

The popular theory, from dramonic at least, I think is that Menalque and TH/Jake are teamed. I can tell you right now that giving up with a lot of AtE and exasperatingly voting Jake is not how scum busses. Just via the amount of posting Menalque has done this game you can tell he cares a lot. If he's scum and realizes his partner is going down, he's going to bus for cred. What he's doing now actively strips his credibility no matter what.

And then like, his focus hasn't even entirely been on you guys. Actually contrary to both of you, who seem to have very few reads... Hiraki is actually better in this regard, dramonic just seems to focus on his scum team. Menalque has from the start of the game tried to make sense of the entire player list. Go into his ISO and look specifically at his read trajectory on Gamma, try to step into his shoes for a moment and realize, wow, that's a towny trajectory that actually makes a lot of sense even if you don't agree with it. Even this late into D1, he's constantly returning to slots like Gypx or Marashu and reevaluating. Slots that have barely posted enough to be reevaluated. It's a level of effort that is A. not needed or optimal from scum!Menalque and B. just more likely to come from town earnestly wanting to solve the game.

I'm writing all of this because I think it's actually fairly probable that you could both be town. But I'm not sure. One of the major sticking points for me with both of your slots (more dramonic than you Hiraki, to be fair) is your continued insistence that Menalque is this open-wolf scum to the point that you seem to refuse to reevaluate at all. I'm not sure if it's scummy because I've seen far more frustrating plays from town before, but it sure as hell is anti-town.

It's exacerbated by the fact that your reads don't seem to have progressed in 40 pages. I don't get the sense you're really reading Menalque's post or absorbing new information and assimilating that with the reads you decided on page 10.

I don't know, just be a little transparent here? Talk to me? Even if you think I'm scum? Or both of us are scum?

ok

VOTE: teacher

[Hiraki]

Gimme something chew on Dunn. I don't see Teacherscum.

[Dunnstral]

If we're not going to eliminate Jake after a vt claim then we shouldn't have asked him to claim at all. Eliminate teacher.

[Dunnstral]

He said he would catch up in the game and he really isn't

When did I say that?

[Bell]

@dunstral, what ya doin?

idk, feelin' kinda cute, might read the thread soon

[TemporalLich]

VC 1.17

Jake The Wolfie (5) - Almost50, dramonic, Hiraki, Testarossa, Marashu [E-2]

Marashu (4) - Dannflor, teacher, PenguinPower, Menalque [E-3]
dramonic (1) - Gamma Emerald
Hiraki (1) - Jake The Wolfie
teacher (1) - Dunnstral

Not voting: Bell

With 13 alive it takes 7 to exile.

Day 1 will end in (expired on 2020-08-23 18:40:00) or when an exile is reached.

Menalque is V/LA until August 21st.

[dramonic]

If we're not going to eliminate Jake after a vt claim then we shouldn't have asked him to claim at all. Eliminate teacher.

I don't see your vote on Jake.

[Dunnstral]

Because I don't want to eliminate him, but if you guys are going to force him to claim you should go through with it instead of backing out after a claim.

[Dunnstral]

Or we shouldn't make him claim in the first place.

[Marashu]

I agree that if we weren't serious about eliminating Jake then we shouldn't have forced the claim. But I don't see how that stance leads to trying to start a push on teacher 75% of the way into D1. Why, specifically, don't you want the elim? All I know about your views on that slot is that you didn't think TH was all that scummy. There's a fair chance teacher is scum, but I also think there's a good chance that Jake is scum, and if we're wrong, then the scum teams have less to work with on N1.

[teacher]

Mara, several slots have asked you to follow up on why you shifted away from me. Now you appear to be shifting back a bit, though recognizing its not happening. Can you react/reflect on our interchange?

[Marashu]

I don't think you're clear, but I also don't think you're the worst offender, and there are better places for me to be placing my focus. At the very least, I no longer think that your early position in the Mena/Hiraki discussion was scummy.

[teacher]

So youre basing "there's a fair chance teacher is scum" on.....what, exactly?

[Almost50]

If we're not going to eliminate Jake after a vt claim then we shouldn't have asked him to claim at all. Eliminate teacher.

Are you new to MS, Dunn? /Sarcasm

Don't you know the Town needs to out most/all it's PRs on D1?