Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Menalque]

my take: I'm not good at the skilled parts of scum, like directing town into miselims or like PR speculation. i am okay at appearing townie but I myself don't know why so is that really that good?

because don't get guillotined = win games

if you can appear towny enough to do that pretty consistently then you're good at scum even if you're not great at power scumming or laser focused NKs

**

yeah, I feel a bit better about clidd -- or like, I feel like he handled this in a pretty towny way. I don't feel like he was avoiding me in an agenda-y way and he felt very good faith and generous in the way he handled me. I still sort of want him to explain if he can at some point but rn I think he goes into my townreads

so like

I think Morning is town.
I think Clidd is town.
I think ydrasse is probably town.
I think GL is probably town, but actually maybe a little weaker than the other three.

Gamma, pine, dunn all null.

Farren is still bit more towards scum, I think. But if my townreads are right, then I think this is winning already.

[Dannflor]

VOTECOUNT 1.1

Walk Through the Fire

[3] Farren :

Morning Tweet, Guilty Lion, Menalque

[1] clidd :

Ydrasse

[1] Ydrasse :

Pine

[1] Dunnstral :

clidd

[3] Not Voting :

Farren, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald

With 9 in play, it takes 5 votes to exile.

The Day 1 deadline is in: (expired on 2020-08-27 01:04:14)

[clidd]

After thinking for a while (on relax mode on), I just came to my first serious read: Menalque obvtown.

[clidd]

But I still thinking that we are going the wrong direction with Farren.

[Ydrasse]

i've come out of the last page or two townreading clidd + menalque. mt to a lesser degree but still in my townreads. i think that the back and forth between the former was maneuvered in a way that settled some of the weird feelings i had towards the line of question from mena, of which mt voiced. also this is because i am tired and only really looking over the last few pages now. :>

i liked gamma's opening (it made me feel special... and also it was super bold) and i don't remember anything about farren right now or much of the others right now but that is an issue for after i sleep.

while it's hypocritical to say that like... activity =/= alignment it does feel like the towniest people right now are the people posting the most right now?

[Ydrasse]

and now i sleep, good night my cute little forest!!

[Farren]

while it's hypocritical to say that like... activity =/= alignment it does feel like the towniest people right now are the people posting the most right now?

Why would this be hypocritical?

Activity doesn't equal alignment, true, but that doesn't mean there's zero correlation.

Demotivation and/or IRL busy-ness can cause a lack of posting. The latter is totally NAI. The former can be NAI - but isn't *always* NAI.

[Farren]

Gamma, pine, dunn all null.

Farren is still bit more towards scum, I think. But if my townreads are right, then I think this is winning already.

From where I'm standing, you being correct about your townreads (and Town yourself) means all the scum are in your null pile. How much of your townreads (both quantity and quality) are based on people scumreading me?

[Dunnstral]

What makes you suppose he's right on all his townreads?

[Dunnstral]

I think Morning is town.
I think Clidd is town.
I think ydrasse is probably town.
I think GL is probably town, but actually maybe a little weaker than the other three.

Gamma, pine, dunn all null.

This seems opportunistic if farren is town.

[Menalque]

Gamma, pine, dunn all null.

Farren is still bit more towards scum, I think. But if my townreads are right, then I think this is winning already.

From where I'm standing, you being correct about your townreads (and Town yourself) means all the scum are in your null pile. How much of your townreads (both quantity and quality) are based on people scumreading me?

That’s possible. Err my townreads aren’t very based on people SRing you at all? I guess GL is the one that’s most influenced by that.

[Menalque]

Why does it seem opportunistic, dunn?

[Dunnstral]

You put all the low posters in your null pile, which is actually just your scum pile but you're not calling it that

[Menalque]

I put you and pine there because you haven’t given enough content for me to see any reason to townread or scumread you yet. If every other slot posts stuff that I think makes it unlikely scum, and there are two slots that haven’t been posting anything, then yes — they default to my scumreads.

Also like, GL isn’t down there, and farren is? Idg why it’s opportunistic if farren is town?

[Menalque]

Farren, do you have any reads yet?

[clidd]

while it's hypocritical to say that like... activity =/= alignment it does feel like the towniest people right now are the people posting the most right now?

Activity is not necessarily AI, but the problem is letting players enter a coasting instance.

Draw the attention of those who have not posted/are not having a good activity (like what Menalque is doing) is an invitation for these people to participate and not enter the state I mentioned ^

[clidd]

And for those who didn't understand, Menalque's townreads are temporary. None of his reads are fixed and can change depending on the posts. Null is not the same as scumread in this scenario, but it does mean that he does not have an initial read/impression in the slot and needs to see that person posting to get some AI impression.

[clidd]

Second observation (just a feeling) is that I don't think Ydrasse would vote me this early.

Well... she did

Dunn, when I come back to this post, my impression is that the message I conveyed was not of such significant value to you.

Considering that you approached the post from an out of context angle (being a bit comical), what was your intention ? Of the things I said in the last pages (about Farren/Ydrasse) what was your impression ?

[clidd]

And for those who didn't understand, Menalque's townreads are temporary. None of his reads are fixed and can change depending on the posts. Null is not the same as scumread in this scenario, but it does mean that he does not have an initial read/impression in the slot and needs to see that person posting to get some AI impression.

By extension, if the null margin starts to make a good impressions and get changed to town-zone, there will be many towns in the same space, which will indicate to Menalque that his initial assumption was not correct and encourage a reevaluation of the slots to distinguish between the townreads and see which is probably wrong / right / etc.

The same is true for Farren, as his scumread is not fixed. If you are not townreading Menalque, just engage with him and clarify your doubts (in good faith).

[clidd]

Personally, my town-lock on him is basically due to the depth of thought that he had about my meta, which sounded to me as extremely genuine.

[clidd]

And the way he came to question me and at the same time think of solutions for that to happen in a way that he could draw an AI conclusion, without indirect shading or doing evasive maneuvers to make me look worse, was an indication that he was starting from a uninformed perspective (town) that doesn't know my alignment.

[clidd]

Well, that's all.

[clidd]

By the way, part of me thinks that maybe Town!Lion would open the game with a vote on Menalque/me/Ydrasse to sort us early, but this is a scant assumption. Not if our past game would have any effect on him. I don't know.

[Pine]

I am present; this is my last day of workplace insanity for the summer. It's all downhill starting tomorrow.

[Farren]

What makes you suppose he's right on all his townreads?

If by suppose you mean "entertain the possibility" - have to consider all possibilities. That includes Town|Menalque with 100% good Town-reads this early in the game.
If by suppose you mean "believe that he's correct" - I would be surprised if the above were true. Scum|Menalque could have 100% accurate "reads" easily. Assuming Town|Menalque, from his PoV ... pick four out of eight players, hit zero scum ... about a 14% chance that he's right if he did it randomly from his PoV. From my PoV, I know he's excluded one member of Town from his townreads - I don't know if that changes things from a mathematical perspective or not. I don't think it does, as even a correct answer will necessarily exclude two people.

Skill can improve chance. But this early in the game, I don't think any player - no matter how skilled - is going to *significantly* improve those odds.