Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[clidd]

Are you reading the game, Lion ?

We aren't pushing lurkers to flash-elimination, we're making them post.

[Farren]

If you are referring to a past game, where you two were scum, depending on the date he would be more inclined to vote for you first if the impression of that game was bigger than the past with me/Ydrasse/Menalque.

As I don't read minds, I don't find it so suggestive.

No, this was a reference to the re-roll of the game before it started. Initially, I got a scum role with GuiltyLion as my partner. So this isn't ancient history - this is fresh in the present.

[GuiltyLion]

Are you reading the game, Lion ?

We aren't pushing lurkers to flash-elimination, we're making them post.

???

Menalque asked if you had any thoughts on who might be scum, you said Pine/Dunn. No one is saying anything about a flash-elimination, you were asked about YOUR reads and those were the ones you gave

[Farren]

these things all point to it being about Menalque, no? Why would these comments refer to you, you didn't really speak much or at all about clidd's meta whereas Menalque was invoking it quite explicitly?

it definitely matters if it was about you and not Menalque

Last sentence of 193

The same is true for Farren, as his scumread is not fixed. If you are not townreading Menalque, just engage with him and clarify your doubts (in good faith).

Personally, my town-lock on him is basically due to the depth of thought that he had about my meta, which sounded to me as extremely genuine.

Bleh. I think I misread 193. Yeah, your interpretation makes more sense.

[clidd]

...

[clidd]

I'll take a break, back later.

[Morning Tweet]

Farren, do you have any reads yet?

Leaning Town on clidd and you. Gun to my head, I'd say Dunnstral and GuiltyLion for scum - but my D1 read quality tends to be utter garbage. At least in my last game, the scum were all hiding in the middle of my thoughts by the time D1 came to a close. People who were being active, but not *really* active - people who were participating, but not shining. Probably means I should be looking more at ... Gamma Emerald, Ydrasse, Morning Tweet. And I'm forgetting someone ... Pine. I'd put Pine in the bottom bucket. And I know why I'm doing that, and I hate it.

So: let Dunnstral and GuiltyLion percolate for the time being, poke them from time to time, work on the middle three. Wait for Pine to become more present.

VOTE: Morning Tweet

Going off of memory, Morning Tweet, you've made less of an impression on me than Gamma and Ydrasse, despite you scumreading me. Is that a me thing or a you thing, do you think?

Clidd I believe has a higher chance of being town from the way he's responding to Mena/GL -- I'm near certain he's genuinely frustrated (177), his reads remind me of previous games with him..

Pine was not present for the first day of the previous game I played with him, i believe this is normal.

Sometimes i give a ton of reads at the beginning, but this game i haven't really as much because i feel i'll be biased to townreading those who have been active thus far. I'm waiting for a more complete picture. Oh, also it's not a scumread I just retained my vote on you without commenting on it to give the illusion of extra pressure (i have a fear of having early scumreads)

UNVOTE:

I think ydrasse is probably town.

Menalque what's your reasoning here? she feels way more casual/chill/friendly than I remember in either her scumgame or her towngame, I don't know how to read it

I noticed this the other day and i made a hypothesis that Ydrasse feels more pressured to give early reads / content as scum. But there was a town game where she gave a big reads run down within the first 200 posts. so i do not know

[Morning Tweet]

I don't follow, what do you mean by good questions? Like you don't think my questions were good?

I don't agree with you that Menalque is obvtown here and I think the reason you gave for it doesn't feel all that rigorous, which I would expect more from you. As either alignment Menalque can speak genuinely about your meta. It looks to me like you were happy with the conclusion he reached in 175 and townread him back as a result, I can't grok why you'd be confident he's town off that.

I also don't vibe with scumreads on the two lowest activity slots on the basis of PoE here, it's very likely that one of the more active posters is scum trying to establish a good foothold in the game

Clidd has a tendency to reciprocate townreads, I've noticed. I wonder if it's a towntell of his, id have to check. But he does it very often from what i can recall

Why is it likely for scum to be in the actives as opposed to not?

Very active posters: Mena, clidd
Very present posters: Farren, Morning, Ydrasse, GL
<10 posts: Gamma, Dunnstral, Pine

This reminds me of what someone would say if one of their arsonist pals had a lower post count. but you wouldn't dare burn down this lovely forest, would you? there has never been a guarantee in my games that a highly active slot was scum trying to deepwolf. In fact, it hasnt happened often at all.

[Morning Tweet]

Farren, do you have any reads yet?

Leaning Town on clidd and you. Gun to my head, I'd say Dunnstral and GuiltyLion for scum - but my D1 read quality tends to be utter garbage. At least in my last game, the scum were all hiding in the middle of my thoughts by the time D1 came to a close. People who were being active, but not *really* active - people who were participating, but not shining. Probably means I should be looking more at ... Gamma Emerald, Ydrasse, Morning Tweet. And I'm forgetting someone ... Pine. I'd put Pine in the bottom bucket. And I know why I'm doing that, and I hate it.

FWIW i do like how you're using your vote to sort me rather than vote Dunn or GL (who hadn't had recent posts at the time) + you scumread them but feel scum is more likely to be someone you're missing in the middle. Does seem to imply you're actually trying to vote who has the highest chance of being scum, if that makes sense.

And Scum!Menalque does not approach me directly, like he did here by approaching the subject clearly. He would slowly look at my behavior and use the lack of characteristic features of my towngame to develop suspicions in me without compromising much.

Reminds me of the read on Ydrasse's vote, somewhat.

This is somewhat of a stretch, i feel clidd may possibly just wants Mena to be town, so he began with that conclusion and imagined what town!Mena's mindset is and then applied it. Trying to explain townreads is like that sometimes. i am finding the lack of backing down on this read despite GL contesting it to be somewhat towny. I think that clidd truly believes in the tell, strongly, and doesn't get why GL isn't getting it. Perhaps scum!clidd backs down, or at least makes the read weaker?

After thinking for a while (on relax mode on), I just came to my first serious read: Menalque obvtown.

Alternatively, scum!clidd sees that Mena townreads him, so he mega townbins Mena just so he can pocket someone who townreads him back. Perhaps this is what GL sees. I'll keep thinking

[clidd]

I'm back.

[clidd]

I'm calmer now, sorry about earlier (Lion).

I feel a sense of persecution of my meta in every game I play and this is creating a certain amount of stress.

[clidd]

[clidd]

Ok, let me take a look at your questions again.

[Menalque]

I don't agree with you that Menalque is obvtown here

What is your read on me, GL?

Also, happy scumday!

[Menalque]

If nothing else, that Rising Star badge tells me you're more likely to fall towards the skilled end of things

Hoooo boy are you about to be disappointed

[Menalque]

Idk how I feel about 203 but I kinda want to mull on it for a bit

Thanks for answering all my questions, farren

[Menalque]

I think ydrasse is probably town.

Menalque what's your reasoning here? she feels way more casual/chill/friendly than I remember in either her scumgame or her towngame, I don't know how to read it

I’m p sure I read somewhere that ur only allowed a super cute avi if you’re okay with never rolling scum in games because it makes it unfair because it’s so easy to pocket people

It’s the same reason morning is always town and why I can’t seem to get a scum role pm since I changed to this anime avatar

[clidd]

well like, I'm currently worried about clidd. that's mostly because I feel like he's trying to pre-emptively justify being not on-meta. which like, good very well be because he's burned out from the last couple of games and he's totally being truthful and just wants to have a chill game. in which case, great! I want him to have that too!

the last game I played with town!clidd (which I think was that Newbie you were in briefly) he posted this huge meta-analysis of my slot and I asked him whether he replicates that type of post as scum bc that's an insane amount of effort and he said he didn't think he could do it

so I see where you're coming from here, but I'm not sure he'd try to bring it up pre-emptively though. that feels a little brave as scum

Yes, it's true that I cannot manufacture fake analyzes on my scumgame with the same variety that I develop on my towngame. This is a fact.

The point is that I do not always feel so energetic or obliged to replicate this always, and the absence of this element is not necessarily a scumtell of my meta.

As an example of towngames exempt from detailed analysis:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Another point is that in the games above I was cognitively fatigued (as I am here) and so I did not feel comfortable to maintain the analytical standard.

What I am demonstrating here (wanting to play relaxed, without wallpost) should not be seen as AI due to a deviation in the curve of my meta, but as NAI, since similar situations have already occurred (which I mentioned in the three games above).

[clidd]

do you have any thoughts on who might be scum so far btw?

PoE is telling Pine and Dunn. But it might change if they post something good.

eh I don't like this post

how is it PoE based off of like two RL days, especially when it gives you the two lurkiest slots

The PoE (elimination process) that I mentioned above was based on the players who did not have enough material for me to have any good impression and stipulated that if they posted more (preferably something that I interpreted as AI), that impression would not remain.

In other words, I did a quick comparison of the slots and selected those that were not pleasing me in the period of time the question was asked (Dunn/Pine), as closest to the scum margin. Evidently, this response was an early conclusion to try to answer Menalque's specific question, which does not reflect a fixed thought but rather a momentary thought of who can be scum based on recent info.

If I were to give a more precise answer, I would say say that there is not enough evidence to measure who is scum or not. Which makes the premise above a guess ^

[clidd]

Personally, my town-lock on him is basically due to the depth of thought that he had about my meta, which sounded to me as extremely genuine.

how do you think scum!Menalque would approach your slot, his thoughts about your meta have nothing to do with his alignment. this is a bs reason for a townread and I especially don't like that it comes right after he softened up on you

VOTE: clidd

My personal interpretation of the sequence 147, 156, 157 and 168 is that he approached the subject in a clear way, never trying to imply that I would definitely be scum and giving me space so that I could clarify the impression he was feeling. I don't know how you see it, but I don't see bad faith on his part during the questioning process. It reflects much more an uninformed perspective that is trying to understand me than scum trying to forge a reason to eliminate me.

Another point is that it would be disappointing for me if he tried to use such a trick as scum, as it is a low level game conduct in my opinion.

Regarding the townread coming after his conclusion, this was because in my view the inference he had from our interaction made sense. If he acted drastically different, with a scumread or other questionable behavior towards me, I probably wouldn't have the same reaction. In other words, in my head, it made sense to town!He, through good faith, reach the conclusion that I was town, while scum!He (speculating) would be more inclined to sow more doubts.

[clidd]

I don't follow, what do you mean by good questions? Like you don't think my questions were good?

I don't agree with you that Menalque is obvtown here and I think the reason you gave for it doesn't feel all that rigorous, which I would expect more from you. As either alignment Menalque can speak genuinely about your meta. It looks to me like you were happy with the conclusion he reached in 175 and townread him back as a result, I can't grok why you'd be confident he's town off that.

I also don't vibe with scumreads on the two lowest activity slots on the basis of PoE here, it's very likely that one of the more active posters is scum trying to establish a good foothold in the game

Whether or not to find my reason genuine is a particular cognitive process of yours, so I will not comment.

It's possible that Scum!Menalque could talk about my meta, but I

don't

think that's the case here.

I don't think that the most active players are more likely to be scum than the quieter ones (kind of like when you won newbie 1995 by coasting as scum, so you might know that).

[clidd]

My read on Menalque is valid to me, I don't think he would go that deeper to understand my meta.

maybe can you explain which posts/points were deeper than scum!Menalque could or would post?

I think if you're saying "why would he go through the effort" I can better understand that read, but it read to me like you initially said it was the genuine-ness that made it town.

Effort is one of the elements that I used to reach the conclusion of *genuineness*.

[clidd]

Are you reading the game, Lion ?

We aren't pushing lurkers to flash-elimination, we're making them post.

???

Menalque asked if you had any thoughts on who might be scum, you said Pine/Dunn. No one is saying anything about a flash-elimination, you were asked about YOUR reads and those were the ones you gave

I explained this in one of the posts above.

My impression is that you were sending the message that I was trying to eliminate slots with low activity and using scumread through the post number as an excuse, but I believe there was a communication failure between us.

So I figured you might be drunk or something, but you probably just didn't understand from where I was coming.

[clidd]

Actually, I might take a step back and consider Menalque a really-really-really strong townread.

Lion is right in the sense that I cannot have such an early conclusion of lock-town, considering that this instance does not allow me to do any kind of reevaluation.

[clidd]

Morning is interpreting my behavior correctly.

So she is very good at reading me or has information about my alignment (scum). But I am more inclined to the town side, considering that her posts in general are giving me a good feeling by tone (no, I will not do a dissertation to explain why).