Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Isis]

Tweet should be looked at if clidd is red

[Isis]

I think I shouldn't further belabor the point we were arguing about

[Isis]

I put my foot on my desk to reread page 12 and Pandora seems to like the kind of lap that created for her

[Morning Tweet]

Wouldnt it be weirder if clidd does scummy stuff to the point where he gets exiled, but i maintain his innocence throughout the whole day in spite of all of it, and then he flips green? Like I knew somehow

him flipping red would more or less sound just about like my read accuracy to me

but yeah i suppose we're not going anywhere

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler: me sitting here with 5 posts while clidd has 102 and is pushing me but he's getting pushed instead:

[clidd]

I kind of expected that ^

Menalque leaving aggravated this scenario too.

[clidd]

I'm pretty sure Menalque got banned for lashing out at a player who replaced into his game while blacklisted ontop of nasty posts from the original game that generated the grudge. Both completed games. The mods take a long time to settle on stuff.

Six week signup ban would have been better than two week mafia ban, it kind of sucks to punish the bystanders in games that get their integrity disrupted.

Well, practically in every game I had with him there was always a toxic episode in some way.

In particular, I think Menalque is very good as a player, but he has some problems in the emotional area.

[clidd]

Second observation (just a feeling) is that I don't think Ydrasse would vote me this early.

Well... she did

Dunn, when I come back to this post, my impression is that the message I conveyed was not of such significant value to you.

Considering that you approached the post from an out of context angle (being a bit comical), what was your intention ? Of the things I said in the last pages (about Farren/Ydrasse) what was your impression ?

Dunn, I'm not sure if you answered this.

[Isis]

Yeh Mena is a lil toxic :s

[Farren]

Clidd I believe has a higher chance of being town from the way he's responding to Mena/GL -- I'm near certain he's genuinely frustrated (177), his reads remind me of previous games with him..

Pine was not present for the first day of the previous game I played with him, i believe this is normal.

Sometimes i give a ton of reads at the beginning, but this game i haven't really as much because i feel i'll be biased to townreading those who have been active thus far. I'm waiting for a more complete picture. Oh, also it's not a scumread I just retained my vote on you without commenting on it to give the illusion of extra pressure (i have a fear of having early scumreads)

I'd take this as an answer of "thinking it's a you thing" - meaningful content combined with a self-assessment rather than turning it back around on me. Plus denying the scumread - which is fair.

Why the fear of early scumreads?

[Farren]

This is somewhat of a stretch, i feel clidd may possibly just wants Mena to be town, so he began with that conclusion and imagined what town!Mena's mindset is and then applied it. Trying to explain townreads is like that sometimes. i am finding the lack of backing down on this read despite GL contesting it to be somewhat towny. I think that clidd truly believes in the tell, strongly, and doesn't get why GL isn't getting it. Perhaps scum!clidd backs down, or at least makes the read weaker?
Alternatively, scum!clidd sees that Mena townreads him, so he mega townbins Mena just so he can pocket someone who townreads him back. Perhaps this is what GL sees. I'll keep thinking

(quote in middle snipped)

That was posted ... about 22 hours ago. I'm curious to see if you've elaborated on this further since then.

[Farren]

Hoooo boy are you about to be disappointed

I'd rather overestimate someone than underestimate them.

[Farren]

From where I'm standing, you being correct about your townreads (and Town yourself) means all the scum are in your null pile. How much of your townreads (both quantity and quality) are based on people scumreading me?

Why would they be?

Overreliance on the strength of an incorrect read. Or if the reads were made up. Either of which would be problematic - the former would indicate I couldn't put any faith in their accuracy; the latter would indicate scum.

[Farren]

This reads like a scumpost. "definitely" is a bit much if scumming with GL would've been fine. Lady doth protest too much methinks

No ladies here, sorry.

Check out my last scumgame here, and see if you still think "definitely" is unwarranted. Brief summary: it went about as poorly as it's possible for a scumgame to go, with me getting eliminated D1 and my partner following suit the next day. Plus an extra helping of toxicity to boot.

[Farren]

There's just this repeated theme of clidd posting things that seem like poor sketches town thought patterns that are actually unlikely for me to think in that way as town.
This post is actually a logical failing that may be scum indicative. MT posted analysis of clidd's behavior, not just a summary of clidd's alignment; he's conflating the two.

If you give me 3x+4=28, and I say "it's eight", you can say Isis knows prealgebra, or she has an answer key. If I say
3x+4-4=28-4
3x=24
3x/3=24/3
x=8
You don't say "Isis either knows prealgebra or has an answer key". It's demonstrated I know prealgebra whether or not I have an answer key.
If clidd read Tweet's reasoning and the analysis was sound he should be able to say Tweet is good at reading him, unqualified. He's sprinkling "unless they're scum" into his posting as one often does as scum and has managed to do it gratuitously here.

Math is absolute. Mafia isn't. The answer to your math question will always be 8; the answer to a Mafia analysis is rarely that straightforward.

Do you know if clidd specifically does that as scum, or is that a general tell?

[Farren]

UNVOTE: Morning Tweet
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I was going to switch to Ydrasse next, but I saw something that I thought had ... a connection, I guess? ... to a part of the gamestate, and I want to see if it develops on its own without me poking at it first.

Gamma, I saw one brief moment where you put yourself out there - and then you withdrew. Got anything else like that?

[Isis]

It's a general tell.
The greater availability of correctness in math doesn't seem important to the analogy, but if I tried to make it important I would observe that mafia's fuzziness means that Tweet can just blindly guess that clidd is town and guess right, which makes the dichotomy between "really analyzed that line that I know she analyzed because she explained it in thread or doesn't understand anything and used her red role PM" an even worse dichotomy for not having an entry for blind guessing.

So why did you think the fuzziness of mafia has the opposite effect here?

[Farren]

"doesn't understand anything" wouldn't necessarily go hand in hand with "used her red role PM." It's possible for scum to analyze as well. They have the advantage of knowing what the correct conclusions are in advance - but that doesn't mean they can't walk through the same steps to try to give credence to their agenda.

The short version, without reference to the analogy: I don't consider the tell of "Saying I think X is Town (but could still be scum)" to have much value, but would give it more value if clidd specifically had a history of doing it.

[Isis]

It's possible for scum to analyze as well. They have the advantage of knowing what the correct conclusions are in advance - but that doesn't mean they can't walk through the same steps to try to give credence to their agenda.

You are like, agreeing with me
That is why it is so unnatural for clidd to say if Tweet is scum she isn't analyzing. Scum can still analyze. It'd be analysis either way.

[clidd]

But I didn't say that she couldn't do analysis as scum.

My observation is that she is on the right track for having correct reads or is just scum and already knows my alignment, so it would be easy for her to find reasons to have me as a townread.

[clidd]

Morning is interpreting my behavior correctly.

So she is very good at reading me or has information about my alignment (scum). But I am more inclined to the town side, considering that her posts in general are giving me a good feeling by tone (no, I will not do a dissertation to explain why).

[clidd]

UNVOTE: Morning Tweet
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I was going to switch to Ydrasse next, but I saw something that I thought had ... a connection, I guess? ... to a part of the gamestate, and I want to see if it develops on its own without me poking at it first.

Gamma, I saw one brief moment where you put yourself out there - and then you withdrew. Got anything else like that?

+Town points

[clidd]

I am present; this is my last day of workplace insanity for the summer. It's all downhill starting tomorrow.

Hey Mr. Pine, I need to talk with you too (when you get back)

[clidd]

I kind of want(and would like help) to sort the pool (Dunn/Pine/Gamma), because if they're town, there is a chance that we're dealing with a deep wolf.

[Isis]

I mean if I'm eating a red herring once or even twice, I still thing clidd's entire post record here is all sorts of bad pings. Up to and including wanting Pine's help solving rather than like wanting Pine to move off truenull since he still hasn't participated in the game yet