Newbie 2025 | Lilies | Game Over

[ItalianoVD]

I might vote people I don't scumread, if I don't have enough information. I might scumread people I don't vote, if I want to narrow the field. Or maybe I do scumread Frederick, but I don't feel like saying so.

If you must insist that it's a scumread, I encourage you to find me saying those words: you will not.

Saying more right this moment is premature.

I will point out your defense of Frederick is hilariously, pointlessly personal. Nothing about "people who aren't enthusiastically excited about mathematics are unlikely to pour a lot of time and effort into checking the validity of a mathematical post" is calling you or anyone else dumb. Take me for example: you could not pay me to sit down and read German philosophers, that's just the beginning and the end of that discussion -- and it has nothing to do with my intelligence or lack thereof.

I went out of my way to phrase that so that the exact interpretation of my words you're laboring under would not be an easy fit: one has to PURPOSEFULLY presume that is the meaning. Your phrasing it to try and make it an insult to every player (presumably to call for backup) is even MORE interesting.

Tell me, ItalianoVD: why exactly is my push on Frederick something you're taking just so damned personally?

I might vote people I don't scumread, if I don't have enough information. I might scumread people I don't vote, if I want to narrow the field. Or maybe I do scumread Frederick, but I don't feel like saying so.

Maybe you and I are just on different wavelengths regarding voting. I DO vote for my most suspicious and/or highest scumread and I DON’T vote for players I feel are town. To me it doesn’t make sense to do it otherwise, but that’s me. And you not saying what’s really going on in that mind of yours, is that helping the town? Sure you may be trying to keep scum nervous, but as town it’s annoying. Like I said, you’re teasing a trailer, but don’t have a date the movie is coming out.

If you must insist that it's a scumread, I encourage you to find me saying those words: you will not.

I never insisted on anything... what I said was “I think your reasoning for pushing/scumreading Frederick is just as empty as you say my read for shelly is.”
This is not me saying you outright scumread Frederick, this is me saying the reason for voting Frederick is either you pushing him OR scumreading him because in my mind, why else would you vote or push?

I will point out your defense of Frederick is hilariously, pointlessly personal. Nothing about "people who aren't enthusiastically excited about mathematics are unlikely to pour a lot of time and effort into checking the validity of a mathematical post" is calling you or anyone else dumb. Take me for example: you could not pay me to sit down and read German philosophers, that's just the beginning and the end of that discussion -- and it has nothing to do with my intelligence or lack thereof.

I went out of my way to phrase that so that the exact interpretation of my words you're laboring under would not be an easy fit: one has to PURPOSEFULLY presume that is the meaning. Your phrasing it to try and make it an insult to every player (presumably to call for backup) is even MORE interesting.

I think you have to separate why I don’t like your push on Frederick vs why I don’t like what you said about the rest of us. The two are not mutually exclusive.

I took what you said in 213 as: I am good in and like math and I almost got caught, so I know the rest of the players that are NOT mathematically inclined like myself are going to miss it or get caught.

• 1 - It makes it seem as if you are bragging about being amazing. It’s not alignment indicative, it’s probably just a personality clash with my own.
  2 - You just assumed that no one is on your level of understanding, which caused you to read Frederick based on an assumption of other players which is why I said what I said in 220
  
  And if
  I
  felt this way about the post, you’re right, I did want to highlight it for the others so they could come in and either confirm what I’m feeling or say I’m crazy or off and to move on. Maybe instead of assuming things and then building your pushes/reads off of it, you could just ask and clear things up.

Tell me, ItalianoVD: why exactly is my push on Frederick something you're taking just so damned personally?

I’m not taking your push onto him personal. I am taking what you said about the math personal. Also there were other things in 220 I wanted you to answer or comment on. Could you do that when you get the chance please. Thanks.

[ItalianoVD]

Shelly can you explain what happened between 224 and 238 and what MUSH said to make you change?

[MagikHorse]

All you've seen is a scumgame.

Exactly. All I’ve seen is a scumgame which means that’s all I have to go by.

You claim an action is scummy because they did it while scum. You have no clue if they do this as town because you've never seen them be town, and yet assume you must be correct.

Again, yes.

I think I've already explained rather well why this doesn't work. Do you not see the logical fallacy here, or are you choosing to ignore it?

This looks like a classic case of confirmation bias, and so I have to ask: What about this action specifically are they unable or unlikely to do as town? Is it reasonably possible that this is just part of their ordinary behavior?

Is confirmation bias alignment indicative? Because scum have information the townies don’t have, can they have confirmation bias? I’m genuinely asking because I don’t know. And yes it is reasonably possible this is shelly’s ordinary behavior and I’ve said I wasn’t disregarding it as a possibility in 177, but as I said I don’t have a town game to formulate a different conclusion.

Why are you forming a conclusion here at all without a town game? That's been my entire premise here, and something you don't seem to be able to understand.

And if anything the scum is always confirmation biased, as they already know everyone's alignment. Unless it's multiball, but that's a whole different beast.

Which reminds me, I never followed up on that myself. @MagikHorse, I feel like I gave you an out in 94, which I believe you took in 108. Why didn’t you go further if you said it was a good start to leaving RVS? You said that but never really honed in on what you were possibly feeling or reading with Frogster. 125 was the last interaction with him and there’s really nothing there that shows what you felt towards him and/or why you stopped voting for him.

As I said in 221, you had already pinged me hard with your completely and entirely illogical case against Shelly and dragged my attention away.

Something I was thinking about. This is for MUSHSHAGANA and MagikHorse. Why are guys not questioning my townread on Redados? Redados is in the exact same category as shelly. It was his first game onsite and my first time playing with him. I’m using the exact same logic to read Redados that I am for shelly. If the premise of your argument is not to look at meta or to look at both the similarities and differences to come to my conclusion, then why not question my townread, why only the scumread? This is why I don’t necessarily like the push. I feel that if shelly is scum than one of you may be her partner.

I admit the Redados townread hardly even registered because you literally just said it once in 71 and haven't mentioned your read on Redados before or since, or any reasoning for doing so either. Even then "I want to think they're town but I don't know how they act as scum" still doesn't fly at all for the same reason the Shelly read does.

Fair enough. And no, I am still basing it on the same logic used for shelly. I’ll get some reads up soon, but we still have time. Want to hear more from rock and van.

Awfully stubborn on this logic even though I've shown the fallacy repeatedly, aren't you?

I went over all this in 154, but I never really got a response to that either. I'd like one.

What else didn’t I respond to. You said ‘either’ as if I forgot to respond to something else. Let me know what I missed and I’ll get to it. As far as 154 goes, I’m not sure what else you want me to say. I think I’ve been pretty clear and open about the what, why, and how.

The "either" was me thinking about the Redados dodge, not something from you. Apologies for that. Your "what, why, and how" is still bad.

[Redados]

Finally, why do you think that initial interaction with you seems like scum trying to pressure you?

2. You then said I was prone to winning arguments. I don't consider it scummy -

wanting to win arguments

isn't AI at all

I'm not sure if I would go as far as calling at AI but I believe that it is anti-town and unhelpful to

always

try and win arguments.

[Frogsterking]

Rocknil

was

my main FoS for the last few days because of the early post + lurk (which was also done by Tastuye in Frederick's slot), + overabundance of TvT-seeming interactions and general towniness creating a game-state where I'm more open to lunch in the lurker+VI pool. I waited because I was hoping he or his partner would interact with each other (which I figured was less likely after I voted him.) I believe this is a valid case for Frederick's slot and potentially van's slot as well, Rocknil just fit the archetype more purely.

Here's the full research if you want to read:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Detection

VOTE: Rocknil

I double-checked my research on syntax this afternoon and was mixed up about sentence length and pronouns; longer sentences and use of the second-person were negatively correlated with scum not positively.

[Frogsterking]

A - B - C - D of the thought process behind the rocknil vote.

A)

Rocknil

was

my main FoS for the last few days because of the early post + lurk (which was also done by Tastuye in Frederick's slot), + overabundance of TvT-seeming interactions and general towniness creating a game-state where I'm more open to lunch in the lurker+VI pool. I waited because I was hoping he or his partner would interact with each other (which I figured was less likely after I voted him.) I believe this is a valid case for Frederick's slot and potentially van's slot as well, Rocknil just fit the archetype more purely.

B)

Since then I've reconsidered based on Rocknil's syntax. I believe scum performing a post + lurk will typically use less first-person and write in longer sentences. He could be an archetypal post + lurk scum who just has better lines, it was just enough to make me reconsider. For this reason I'm leaving my vote on Frederick for now.

C)

I double-checked my research on syntax this afternoon and was mixed up about sentence length and pronouns; longer sentences and use of the second-person were negatively correlated with scum not positively.

D)

At first glance Frederick's (who I was previously voting) vote on shelly looked townie to me.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

ItalianoVD: I'm going to say that you're not getting answers to those from me right now. Because you are still definitely responding very, very personally, not at all logically.

Now that time has passed, you'll notice that everyone else has accepted the words I chose around math inclination at face value. I was very careful: "potentially misleading town", "other players who aren't so inclined".

Note, there is no "the" in front of "other" there -- it's stating that there is such a thing as players who aren't into math, and says nothing about how many, or even IF any, exist in the game. I purposefully left that open to avoid precisely this interpretation you have. And yet, here we are. Here YOU are. Tilting at windmills, but without even the implied heroism of that.

You are dreaming up an interpretation I was careful to not post. That interpretation is not there. It isn't real and it doesn't exist. Why, then, are you just so bent out of shape about something I didn't even say? Why is this push on Frederick so important to you?

When I'm satisfied on this subject, you'll get the rest of your answers.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

MagikHorse, can I get your opinion of Italiano's play? My take is: emotionally charged reasoning presenting with logical face. His play is also centered on himself -- which manifests as Always Right (unwillingness to concede lost points, unwillingness to cooperate with other players, etc), and deeply entrenched reads (taking subjective view as objective truth).

Point of note: he seems to expect other players to also have self-centered play -- he distrusts other people changing their reads or conceding arguments, for instance. So this may not be AI, but I'm not necessarily interested in alignment sorting him based on the playstyle that /I/ see.

Accurate? Have I missed anything? Have I misread the playstyle in your eyes?

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I'm going to post my first public read: I think Frogsterking is town. If he isn't town, he's unreadable. I think his playstyle edges a bit toward anti-town overall, he's focused on game-solving over scum-hunting, but scum has no reason to give town a weapon like that paper. Arguably against their win condition to do so.

I'll note this read is conditional: his anti-town behavior is consistently game-solving (which comes from a town direction) and his towniness is based on a single event that gives away a lot of cover for lurker scum. It's a strong town read, but it isn't unbreakable.

[Redados]

I'm going to post my first public read: I think Frogsterking is town. If he isn't town, he's unreadable. I think his playstyle edges a bit toward anti-town overall, he's focused on game-solving over scum-hunting, but scum has no reason to give town a weapon like that paper. Arguably against their win condition to do so.

I'll note this read is conditional: his anti-town behavior is consistently game-solving (which comes from a town direction) and his towniness is based on a single event that gives away a lot of cover for lurker scum. It's a strong town read, but it isn't unbreakable.

Can you again walk me through why sharing these reads doesn't help the town? How does it help the town for you to keep your reads close to your chest?

[ItalianoVD]

@MUSHSHAGANA: It seems you and I are on different wavelengths at the moment. I will admit that I just don’t understand what you’re doing and/or why your doing it. You don’t wanna give reads, you don’t wanna say what’s on your mind, you don’t wanna be pushed. Not sure how you normally react when people push you but that’s what I’m doing and your reaction to it is very projective. Are you exempt from being pushed? Surely not. You disliked my push onto shelly and said so. I explained why. You didn’t like the explanation. I dislike your push onto Frederick. You explained why. I didn’t like your explanation. That’s it. There’s nothing personal there. And if I implied something that you did not say than I apologize. If I’m reading words, I don’t have tone, I don’t have facial expression, so it’s all I have to go by. I don’t like your playstyle, doesn’t mean I think you’re scum. And you don’t have to answer my other questions, it’s fine. You can respond if you want, you don’t have to. There won’t be another rebuttal from me.

[Nahdia]

Vote Count 1.04

shellyc (2):

Redados, Frederick A Campbell

Frederick A Campbell (1):

Frogsterking

, MUSHSHAGANA

Redados (1):

Frederick A Campbell

, shellyc

ItalianoVD (1):

MagikHorse

MagikHorse (1):

van

rocknil (1):

Frogsterking

Not Voting (2):

van

, ItalianoVD, rocknil

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-08-25 15:51:33)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

[shellyc]

I'm going to post my first public read: I think Frogsterking is town. If he isn't town, he's unreadable. I think his playstyle edges a bit toward anti-town overall, he's focused on game-solving over scum-hunting, but scum has no reason to give town a weapon like that paper. Arguably against their win condition to do so.

Posting a paper is NAI. Scum appears as town-helping. I don't know why you consider that AI - scum could dig up a paper and make a compelling case as well.

[shellyc]

Shelly can you explain what happened between 224 and 238 and what MUSH said to make you change?

I had always thought a No Eliminate didn't help town. I don't know how the two posts are relevant. #224 was talking about how Fredrick posted a load of nonsense. #238 was disagreeing Fredrick's no eliminate.

[shellyc]

I believe I have clarified this but I will do it again. Behaving the scummiest does not mean the person is aligned with the mafia. Why should I want to vote someone out whom I don't think is the mafia?
I didn't say you were prone to winning arguments. I said you preferred to win arguments or, as you put it in the same point, want to win arguments. I consider it scummy behaviour, but like I said, don't think it is alignment indicative.
In the first place, I just said you behave the scummiest. In the very post I posted indicating whom I thought behaved the scummiest, I have already stated clearly that I thought who I thought behaved the scummiest mattered less than whom I thought was scum.

Well, a townie would vote whoever is being anti town - policy elimination. I see your logic at how you are trying to say that you never scumread me, but I feel like you are framing your attempted attack on me to save yourself.

[shellyc]

I think the ItalianovMush is TvT - they have a different playstyle and they are clashing each other. Although I believe both to be town, I feel this bickering doesn't help us at all.

ItalianovMagik is about the logic used to read me. Italiano is just being paranoid, and I think in a town-ish way. I am not sure about Magik here - they have put me as town though.

[Frogsterking]

shelly if u could shoot anyone right now who would it be

[Frogsterking]

@Rocknil

if u could shoot anyone right now who would it be

@Van

if u could shoot anyone right now who would it be

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Italiano is interesting. I think I agree: town. Weakly, but still. The pressure was because I wasn't sure, and there's a difference between stubborn town and doubt-seeding scum. But when I cornered and squeezed, he deflated, despite no real pressure aside from mine. And no one's following my lead, so there's very little reason to do that for scum.



Frogsterking's paper is based on a corpus of actual Mafiascum games, and the conclusions are statistical in nature. Some are very strong, and are far more likely to be strong for newer players. The chance of two of the SEs being scum is roughly 8%, and replacements are more statistically likely for scum-sided players (0.33 vs 0.35). That's a powerful, powerful tool for helping direct attention. Scum would have little reason to introduce that to town except purely for towncred -- hence a conditional read based on future action. It's only worth the towncred if the scum player believes it removes all real pressure or that they can keep a consistent game. Frogster smells like he could be consistent enough to play scum on this, but again, it's a conditional read.



Now that I'm feeling well-set enough, I will share some of the reasons for the Frederick debacle.

Firstly, he had (and has) nothing to offer in terms of sortable information. His play is minimal, bland and utterly ignorable. I want to squeeze that until it pops, because I hate players that do little to no /playing/. They're worse than lurkers, because people can give them a townread without even realizing why. This was why I voted him at first: not for a scumread, but for a basically zero-information playstyle. Only pressure is going to drag anything out of that.

And then, all hell broke loose.

Every third player had something to say on the matter, and no one offered a coherent defense of Frederick! Shelly didn't like my playstyle surrounding my vote of Frederick, but otherwise had no real reason to offer that might make me back off. ItalianoVD was appalled by language that I didn't use, and found my vote suspect. His defense was aggressive but ultimately /without substance/. Everyone else made some murmurs about my failure to explain my vote, and the game suddenly became a LOT more information rich.

The less explanation I gave, the more infuriated players got -- and the more flailing Frederick's activity became, culminating in /pointlessly/ quoting a contentious post I made near the beginning of the game -- page four, I believe. This was incredibly good information for town, whether you agree with how I got it or not. In future games, I might have to rely more on near-baseless strong pushes with lots of "My reasons are mysterious and I am all knowing" mystique to stir the pot. It was insightful, it was effective, and it was a hell of a lot of fun.

Oh yeah. And I'm keeping my vote on Frederick because I do indeed scumread him. Bland play, bland posts, calling this all so very boring, misleading garbage (that ridiculous math post), and muffled flailing when pressured hard enough for long enough. He has no town vibes, his play is so unremarkable it's anti-town, and his sum total contributions are /all/ outright anti-town. For the special sauce, since scum slots are slightly more likely to replace out statistically, he's slightly more suspicious than our non-replacing players.

So my vote stays on Frederick.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Frogster didn't ask me, but I have an answer anyway. For reasons of not influencing the answers of the INTENDED targets, I'm sitting on it till they answer.

[Redados]

I'm going to post my first public read: I think Frogsterking is town. If he isn't town, he's unreadable. I think his playstyle edges a bit toward anti-town overall, he's focused on game-solving over scum-hunting, but scum has no reason to give town a weapon like that paper. Arguably against their win condition to do so.

Posting a paper is NAI. Scum appears as town-helping. I don't know why you consider that AI - scum could dig up a paper and make a compelling case as well.

I think it could be slightly AI. Posting a paper is pro-town. Yes, scum wants to act pro-town. But town has more incentive to act pro-town.

[shellyc]

shelly if u could shoot anyone right now who would it be

What do you mean shoot? Dayvig? I would go either Redados or Fredrick - leaning Fred

[shellyc]

helly didn't like my playstyle surrounding my vote of Frederick, but otherwise had no real reason to offer that might make me back off.

I just didn't like using maths to discredit people. I scumread them for their interactions with me - trying to push me, then backing off and trying to frame me as null. They still have not pushed anything. They have not voiced their thoughts or susses. That's erratic, pointless and non town-helping play.

[shellyc]

They pointed out we were doing nothing; yet did nothing to change that. They tried to push me and then deflatedly backed off. They haven't posted a single impression or read on anyone. They have done literally nothing.

My finger of suspicion stays on Fredrick.

[shellyc]

Regarding my Redados read, I am less certain on it. I believe Fredrick has been acting scummier than Redados. However those RVS antics still are lingering in my thoughts. I may swap vote to Fredrick to mount the pressure.