Newbie 2025 | Lilies | Game Over

[MagikHorse]

Well the recent development has been... interesting. I guess it is safe for scums to go for quiet players.

It's also good for town to squeeze people that aren't really doing anything, like you. Do you plan on helping the town in any way?

[Redados]

Rocknil, have you read any games here? I recommend picking a short complete game to read over. Inactivity is okay in certain circumstances but you have to make sure that you are making pro-town contributions by making infrequent large posts etc

[Redados]

...

• Redados - Aside from playing like he did last game, I feel Redados is town here. His questioning, logic, and posting has felt very town. He doesn’t go with the crowd and isn’t scared to disagree with anyone, SE or not. That’s someone that won’t be manipulated.

...

I want to acknowledge that

I

feel like my play is worse than last game. I am having a much harder time reading people and having conversations with people. Last game I felt like I had a better handle on what was going on, and I'm humbled by how few reads I have at this moment. I wanted to acknowledge that. But I appreciate your words.

[Redados]

Rocknil, have you read any games here? I recommend picking a short complete game to read over. Inactivity is okay in certain circumstances but you have to make sure that you are making pro-town contributions by making infrequent large posts etc

Rocknil, read Newbie 2019: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=83700

It's short (relative to some other games) and it includes three players from this game.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Rocknil's reaction puts him at a tentative scumread for me, just saying. Practically everyone in the game has had a strong, sustained push on them at some point aside from Van, myself, and MagikHorse. Van, MagikHorse and I have gotten /shoves/, at least.

This was barely a hard poke, and "ah, ah, scum is attacking me" is the immediate reaction.

I was talking about some stink, but that's a big one right there for me. Could be pure new player and impossible to sort with, but I'm gonna go with new scum to be safe and maybe get him playing.



Redados, I'm not sharing my read on you yet, but... presuming you are town, how likely do you think it is that ItalianoVD is scum buddying up to you? Genuine question. Oh, and do show your work, too, explain why and how you come to your conclusion!

Also interested in the flip-side answer from ItalianoVD, who, I will remind people, I weakly townread.

[Redados]

Redados, I'm not sharing my read on you yet, but... presuming you are town, how likely do you think it is that ItalianoVD is scum buddying up to you? Genuine question. Oh, and do show your work, too, explain why and how you come to your conclusion!

If Italiano is scum then the odds of him scumbuddying up to me are maybe eighty percent.
If Italiano is not scum then the odds of him townreading me vocally are also maybe eighty percent. This is in the vein of something I said earlier in the game but I feel that the more I post, the more obvious it becomes that I am town. Last game, Italiano initially scumread me but the more I posted the more he townread me (I may be oversimplifying a little bit).

Therefore, I don't think his behavior is AI.

I also have a neutral read on Italiano right now, I haven't seen him post or interact enough to have a read on him.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Be advised my activity might drop a bit in the near future. I'm probably RMAing my computer.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

The time has come!

Yes, it is time to tell Van that it's been over 48 hours and his public is IMPATIENT and AWAITS MEAT. Where are you Van? Are you lost in the scum chat? Are you stunned by the magnificent rocknil's glorious return?

[shellyc]

I wanted to hear more and interact more with van and rock before posting my reads, but I guess now is better than waiting on them to come back. Her we go:

• van - not a bad first post from van. Problem is there is only one. I’d like to see his response to MagikHorses’s defense. Not enough info to townread, but his post was a very townie type post.
  
  shellyc - shellyc for the most part is playing the same as last game. She was scum last game. Got a lot of heat for giving my thoughts on shelly and thinking she is scum this game. As the day has gone on, I still don’t townread her fully. She has had some good posts that I agree with. I am 50/50 on her so I will place her at null for now.
  
  Redados - Aside from playing like he did last game, I feel Redados is town here. His questioning, logic, and posting has felt very town. He doesn’t go with the crowd and isn’t scared to disagree with anyone, SE or not. That’s someone that won’t be manipulated.
  
  rocknil - has not done anything in this game. His pattern can be looked at as newbscum at best and lurking newbtown at worst. Either way, it’s not helpful. Chances are he will be replaced. We’ll see.
  
  MUSHSHAGANA - Not really sure what to feel here. I initially townread Mush. I’ve mentioned already that I believe our personalities and playstyles clash. Most of her posts seem town, but I really think her push on Frederick is not in good faith. I will null read her with a slight town direction. Just when I want to solidify the town lean she says something that makes me think otherwise.
  
  MagikHorse - I mentioned in 188 that I felt one of MUSH or Magik could be shelly’s partner if she were to flip scum. With the understanding that I could be wrong about shelly this theory would be shot down at that point. Because I don’t have that information, I’m putting Magik in the same category as MUSHSHAGANA. He hasn’t said anything weird and has been somewhat careful in his responses, but I can’t solidly put him into an alignment yet.
  
  Fredrick A Campbell - Frederick has seemed like town from his posting and interactions with others. I think he’s been misunderstood by the town, especially MUSHSHAGANA. It was pretty clear what he was saying when he said a player can be scummy, but not necessarily be scum. Post 157 stated it perfectly in my opinion. The other things he is being scumread for I just don’t see them. They also aren’t alignment indicative imo.
  
  Frogsterking - Frogster has also seemed fairly town with his posting and interactions. I like what was given in 254. It was a very interesting and informative read and I think very good for the town moving forward.

With that said I’m placing my vote down.

VOTE: rocknil

Dear Italiano, I have noticed one curious thing about this readslist. Your biggest scumread is a lurker... and your second biggest scumread is me (actually a null). You put everyone else as town. Townreading too much is a scumtell out of the book.

[shellyc]

I have a neutral leaning town-ish read on Italiano - I can trust them and their thinking has been from a townie mindset. I like their posts for now.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I think ItalianoVD is probably town, but as time wears on and I consider his posts more and more, that read gets weaker. I don't think I'll scumread him today barring exceptional, spectacular behavior (sidenote that my bar for exceptional and spectacular isn't just different in height from that of others, it's probably at a different angle altogether), but I have Concerns. Capital C.

No, these Concerns will not be aided if I air them out. In fact, they'll become More Concerning instead.

Here, a practical experiment: consider motivations from a scum mindset, reread Italiano's post history so far, and think hard about what falls out.
It isn't a fun thought, is it? Concerning. Like I said. Hopefully you can also see how making Italiano AWARE of those Concerns would be bad for sorting him long-term.

But town motivations win out here. For now.

Right now, I like Frederick (seemingly blatantly unaware of the gamestate until cornered about it???) and Rocknil (inactive AND hyper-defensive about it is a bad look) for scum. My backup is, well, not saying, but I have a solid three people I'd vote for so far, put it that way. There's only a couple people I wouldn't be caught dead voting for so far, but I'm leaving that alone till we start to finalize our Day 1 elimination.

Yes, I intend to fully explain almost everything I've been doing for Day 1 near the end of the day, in case I get eliminated. The remainder are either pointless to explain (e.g. stylistic things, blatantly obvious things) or would undo a lot of the work I've done by revealing them that early.



Speaking of, we should start to talk about that Day 1 elimination in serious terms. Like, laying elimination pools on the table and trying to find where the overlap lies, if we can put together enough votes on someone to try and run the clock down a ways or if we need to try and push for a policy elimination, etc. (This also creates lots of opportunity for reactions to sort people by.)

I'm not looking for quick elimination, I'm not even looking for votes to start moving. (Truth be told, I like the vote spread right about where it is for the moment.) I am looking for who the most players can willingly sacrifice in the game, who they will fight tooth and nail to keep out of the vote, etc. This creates groundwork to avoid no-elimination and helps us build better reads. Just in case anyone has doubts about my intentions.

To that end: I'm enthusiastic right this minute about Frederick or rocknil, and no one else. Most players I could place a compromise vote on, but I'm not willing to step there today: we still have days left before the deadline if I'm not mistaken.

[Nahdia]

Prodding van.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Oh, and for the record, it doesn't usually hurt anything to point out that someone is doing SOMETHING you find scummy. But one has to be wary of pointing at the exact thing and describing in exhaustive detail WHAT it is and WHY it is.

Me saying Italiano's play is Concerning to me by itself does little damage to figuring out if that's just how he is or if it's a scumtell. But if I explain what it is and why, it can easily become coaching the scum players in not being scumread by me.

And no, telling them this stuff I'm saying right now doesn't help them either. (It took me a while to come to that conclusion.) They're already trying to be town. Whatever they see in their own posts that is "scummy" is unlikely to be what I see. Sudden changes that are almost entirely NAI by themselves can be a whole world of meaning all on their own. And no change at all says something too.

[MagikHorse]

Rocknil's reaction puts him at a tentative scumread for me, just saying. Practically everyone in the game has had a strong, sustained push on them at some point aside from Van, myself, and MagikHorse. Van, MagikHorse and I have gotten /shoves/, at least.

This was barely a hard poke, and "ah, ah, scum is attacking me" is the immediate reaction.

I was talking about some stink, but that's a big one right there for me. Could be pure new player and impossible to sort with, but I'm gonna go with new scum to be safe and maybe get him playing.

Was thinking similar things at work. It's not even limited to "ah, scum is attacking me", but throwing shade towards everybody that's trying to pressure the quiet players into doing something productive and stop lurking so badly. It's like a weird voteless OMGUS attack that's simultaneously trying to defend their bad play and others doing the same thing. If Rocknil flips red, it might be worth taking a closer look at the people that have been rather inactive before now.

I need to seriously pause and rethink Italiano, so I'd rather elim Rocknil or Frederick in that order of preference. Anyone else I'd need to see a case or something to consider.

[shellyc]

I need to seriously pause and rethink Italiano, so I'd rather elim Rocknil or Frederick in that order of preference. Anyone else I'd need to see a case or something to consider.

Well, can't disagree too much. I am beginning to see how my case on Redados might be wrong. I would lim Fredrick, don't know about rocknil, but that post after Italiano attacked them sounds like desperate newbscum to me imo.

[Redados]

I would be fine limming rocknil or Frederick A Campbell, but I would rather lim Shelly. I'm not sure I could see myself limming a different player at this point.

[shellyc]

I would be fine limming rocknil or Frederick A Campbell, but I would rather lim Shelly. I'm not sure I could see myself limming a different player at this point.

Make your case on me. I will defend myself, because I am a townie. I want to hear your case on me. Your case is "Oh shelly is scum because they are playing so similar to last game" which is faulty meta analysis. I can play like scum when I'm town because you've never seen a town game from me.

[MagikHorse]

I thought that was Italinao's case. Last I recall Redados' case was "you were too defensive".

[ItalianoVD]

Yeah unfortunately I have been scumread in all the games I’ve played on this site. Even in the other forums I’ve been a part of I am generally looked at as more wolfy than villagery. I’ve been told it’s the way I read people and how I post. shelly, I actually only truly town read 3 players (Redados, Frogsterking and Frederick). I could I’ve been right a larger percentage of the time in my history, but I can still be wrong here. It’s the scumreading I still have a problem with. But those are simply the three players I wouldn’t be comfortable eliminating today.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I would quite like ItalianoVD to weigh in on an elimination pool for today.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

And to be clear! Point of order: where you wouldn't vote is not the same as where you'd REALLY like to vote -- and I do not care about reasons until everyone's put their pool on the table.

I want to make sure we can safely put an elimination vote together in the end without relying on anyone feeling like they need to compromise. When we have that, or when we know we DON'T have that, that helps organize the last parts of Day 1. If we ignore that, it's a lot of herding cats with time pressure on, and if townies are both of the inactives, scum can heel-drag against an elimination until time expires. I want to lock in a good, guaranteed elimination that enough people will be happy with to avoid any risk.

By the way...

There's a thread I read over in the Mafia Discussion forum about the math -- our chances of hitting scum with a random elimination go down dramatically if we no-eliminate. If we hit scum, they drop even lower but we have completed 50% of our win condition -- obviously good. If we hit town, they increase dramatically because we get one extra mis-elimination before a loss over no-eliminate. Also, in the worst case, two town players are out of the game (because of the nightkill) -- but a town/scum ratio of 5/2 makes it far easier to find the scum even by blind voting. It also gives us the use of Vote Count Analysis, and we lose that if we no-eliminate.

I would rather mis-eliminate than no-eliminate. I am doing everything in my power to find a way to avoid no-eliminating, and right now that means building a shared elimination pool that can wagon someone cheerfully despite any, /ANY/ misgivings or cries of protest.

[ItalianoVD]

I would quite like ItalianoVD to weigh in on an elimination pool for today.

Well I’ve already stated my no lynch pool. Rock, van, shelly, in that order.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

If we can get one other player to say they'd happily commit to eliminating Rocknil, we can resume the RIP AND TEAR part of scum-hunting, because that makes five.

If all of the players who haven't weighed in can commit to eliminating Frederick, we can also continue without worry. (I would consider Rocknil and Van unreliable enough in terms of activity that I'd want to get Frogster and BOTH of them to agree. Frederick is obviously given a pass here.)

Otherwise, we need to look for a compromise position. I am not looking forward to THAT process, because that's not going to be fun to try and organize. Start considering your next-down-the-line if Frogster or Fred refuse to commit to those two.

[shellyc]

I put my lynchpool down. I am actually fine with a rocknil lim - but we can't actually find associations in the case that rocknil flips red. I am also fine with a Redados / Fredrick lim. Someone has to get limmed today. We should never no elim d1

[shellyc]

Yeah unfortunately I have been scumread in all the games I’ve played on this site. Even in the other forums I’ve been a part of I am generally looked at as more wolfy than villagery. I’ve been told it’s the way I read people and how I post. shelly, I actually only truly town read 3 players (Redados, Frogsterking and Frederick). I could I’ve been right a larger percentage of the time in my history, but I can still be wrong here. It’s the scumreading I still have a problem with. But those are simply the three players I wouldn’t be comfortable eliminating today.

When I played in chat mafia, I also often got scumread as town. (And curiously, I was often townread as scum). I am fine with getting limmed today if there is really no alternative. But it will be a guarranteed miselim.