Newbie 2023 - Hedgehogs - Day 3

[PlusJOYED]

Imagine you're mafia.
How do you hunt for scum when you know who the scum are?
By making a list of things you'd find scummy and then applying it to the playerlist. This way you can fake a perspective of scum hunting.

This is one way to fake a town perspective when you don't have one.

That's a good point; I haven't looked at the wiki much except for the roles. From what I saw near the latest point, Nash seemed to be under suspicion. So my criteria I posted was mainly me attempting to begin building a bit of trust and consistency, though I completely get how that seems scummy.

Another point I wanna bring up is that, assuming that the ToS newbies exited from boredom and not personal issues, the role I'd assume for most replacements is VT, arguably the most boring role, which is why my first impression of replaced players will be VT.

Note: As a replacement myself, this is not a claim, this is just moreso my first impression unless behavior indicates otherwise.

[Bell]

Actually the most common replace out is mafia. Followed by PR, followed by VT.

[Bell]

That trust and consistency idea is pretty much part of what pinged me about your post.

But because VT are the most common role, it statistically looks like VT replace out the most (Because, obviously, they do just because they're the most common role). It's just if you put one VT, mafia, and a PR side by side alone the statistics turn up what I said they did.

[Bell]

I can see that consistency is important to you and your wording finangling around not wanting to read Nash because you know he's town while stating having read the most recent posts which has him as Null/scum on Nash explained clearly so that people couldn't misrepresent you or accuse you of contradicting yourself.

[shellyc]

Bulge I miss you what do you think of the replacement

Is this...

POCKETING

? NS, why do you keep directing questions at Bulge? I notice Bulge often does the same thing. NS and Bulge can you express a read of each other?

[notscience]

We’re friends lol.

I primarily focus on playing around them because candidly I’m shy- and secondly he’s sitting in the background and I want his opinion on things (I know why he is and it’s not nai but I need more from him still because he’s not as solidly town as is like him to be.

[notscience]

We also just finished a micro where I tried to pocket him all game and he clowned my scumbuddy purely based off associatives from me.

I wouldn’t be trying to pocket him as scum after that. Lol.

[Andresvmb]

I played 2 larger games on a minecraft forum about 6 years back. One I was lynched midgame as cult leader, and another lynched as jester. I've played town of salem off and on for about 6 years; my guess is most newbies probably come from there.
Waiting until I catch up to vote anyone, but for now what my thoughts are, given new players, and what I'm looking for:
-VT's would either be disinterested and bored, and participate very little, or push other players hard since they have less to lose if targeted.
-Mafia would participate in the discussion somewhat, or be rather active at least a little bit; maybe not leading entirely since that would be suspicious if they stayed alive that long. I don't think they would lurk or post a lot; they'd probably wanna meet somewhere in the middle.
(...)

From first 15 pages:
NS - scum - participates actively without leading totally, agree with what they say
(...)
Nash - myself
andre - scum: strikes me as more inexperienced but heavy lurks. could be wrong since he might have just been away and posted a good amount later on
the bulge - town PR, trying to lay low seemingly. If I were maf i'd kill him n1
bella - idk yet
walter - idk yet
clarity - idk yet
our - idk yet

I would argue I (wrongly) lead the IV wagon, and have been pushing the Bellaphant wagon (and they’re pushing me back hard mind you, as is The Bulge), and you’ve stated that I’ve lurked “hard”, yet you conclude I’m inexperienced and Scum? And you think my buddy is notscience?

Also, did you seriously just try and out a PR? What? How do you square your thoughts on how certain alignments play with your conclusions?

[notscience]

The only reason IV went over you was my campaigning, but they haven’t reached that part of the thread yet.

[PlusJOYED]

Bulge I miss you what do you think of the replacement

Is this...

POCKETING

? NS, why do you keep directing questions at Bulge? I notice Bulge often does the same thing. NS and Bulge can you express a read of each other?

Yeah that struck me as odd as well, but notsciences reply seems reasonable enough; I don't wanna argue and go "No you aren't friends! "

[Andresvmb]

Listen I think it’s more likely that it’s just a boneheaded move and not AI, I’ll be honest. But speculating about Town PRs is wrong, and shouldn’t be done. Put simply, it does against the Town win condition, because you want that player not to be narrowed down.

[Andresvmb]

^goes against (...)

[notscience]

For the record, scum want to lay low as well.

[Andresvmb]

Oh I’m not trying to argue about how Town and Scum play. I actually think it’s more individual than that. Some players lurk as Scum. Others come out hard. Some people hide behind logic and detailed, useless analysis. I’ve seen tremendous variation across players. My only way of trying to figure people out is a combination of gut, wagon analysis, and trying to put myself in people’s shoes and see if I can see a Town mindset or not. That’s it.

But you see two posts here from plusJoyed that detail how they determine alignments, and not a whole lot of consistency between that and the conclusions. So I’m trying to understand it.

[PlusJOYED]

Listen I think it’s more likely that it’s just a boneheaded move and not AI, I’ll be honest. But speculating about Town PRs is wrong, and shouldn’t be done. Put simply, it does against the Town win condition, because you want that player not to be narrowed down.

Noted. I wanted to avoid lying this early in, so I've given my honest first impressions of everyone, but I won't speculate on town PR's any further. I admit I made a mistake.

Reading further, you seemed to get more active so I'm less inclined to believe you are maf.

[PlusJOYED]

Oh I’m not trying to argue about how Town and Scum play. I actually think it’s more individual than that. Some players lurk as Scum. Others come out hard. Some people hide behind logic and detailed, useless analysis. I’ve seen tremendous variation across players. My only way of trying to figure people out is a combination of gut, wagon analysis, and trying to put myself in people’s shoes and see if I can see a Town mindset or not. That’s it.

But you see two posts here from plusJoyed that detail how they determine alignments, and not a whole lot of consistency between that and the conclusions. So I’m trying to understand it.

No offense intended, but your first posts from memory seemed very newbie, as a fellow newbie at least, so I thought you might be a lurking scum. But you pointed out something I hadn't thought of so I take it back and am less inclined on you being scum.

[Bell]

[notscience]

What, bell?

[Bell]

I'm slightly happy that the game has people talking to each other again, But I'm thinking about what to make of the andre/PLUS interaction.

[Bell]

Somewhat seriously, I do actually think Joy is scum for the reasons I posted. Wanted to see what would fall out if I pressured him too ofc and kind of felt like I was jumping the gun by looking at four posts and declaring him scum, but it looks like scum to me.

The Andre Joy interaction is weird for PR hunting reasons, I feel there's better stuff to talk about or look into than that so I don't know why Andre is going there instead.

[notscience]

I think plus’s read on me in particular is strange.

I also think anti town actions such as pr spec more often are town because scum is more self concious.

[Bell]

Yeah, I remember you applied that read to me too. But he's clearly self conscious if you pay attention to him. So why isn't he self-conscious in respect to PR hunting?

[Andresvmb]

I think plus’s read on me in particular is strange.

I also think anti town actions such as pr spec more often are town because scum is more self concious.

What I’m trying to do making that point is to stop speculation about PRs. I’m not “going there” to do some deep analysis.

[shellyc]

Somewhat seriously, I do actually think Joy is scum for the reasons I posted. Wanted to see what would fall out if I pressured him too ofc and kind of felt like I was jumping the gun by looking at four posts and declaring him scum, but it looks like scum to me.

The Andre Joy interaction is weird for PR hunting reasons, I feel there's better stuff to talk about or look into than that so I don't know why Andre is going there instead.

IMO I have a null leaning scum read on him for now - didn't especially like fishing for PRs.

[shellyc]

I feel scum here might be Bella / Joy or Bella / Andres. Lynchpool today is Bella / Andres / Joy. Maybe Bulge would make it in. Joy's opening wasn't great to me. But partnership analysis only comes after we flip one scum.