Micro 960: A Year of Miccros II - Game Over

[Something_Smart]

because he has absolute confidence in his solve and he doesn't even care about the possibility he could be wrong

I mean nowhere did I claim I had perfect confidence in the scumcase. I have a fair amount of confidence in it, certainly way more than I have in any other team. It's lylo, there isn't room for error, why would you not be expecting me to pick the highest probability team and throw my weight behind it?

Or better yet, if you want to do meta, go find a time where I was town in lylo and didn't pick what I thought was the most likely team and commit to it.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you're literally not even considering any other scumteam than Pooky/Raven

even tho you kind of said that if DSJ flips town you would be looking elsewhere

[Something_Smart]

how did you use the information from DSJ flipping town?

I didn't.

[Something_Smart]

you're literally not even considering any other scumteam than Pooky/Raven

ss what's your solve? i don't even know

Raven/Pooky > Raven/ducky (tinfoil)

stop saying things that aren't true

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

dsj flips scum -> we can probably just kill you/raven and be happy

dsj flips town -> something is rotten in the state of denmark. is it datisi? is it tw? who knows, really, we get to have a real fun and by fun I mean not fun lylo to figure that one out.

like this post literally says

if DSJ flips scum - > we need to lynch Pooky/Raven


if DSJ flips town -> we are wrong about something in this game and we need to go back and figure it out - maybe dats - maybe tw

Now instead of doing the "figure something out" part- you've gone back to "we need to lynch Pooky/Raven"

Which means your response was full of shit to begin with

[Something_Smart]

besides, are you in my mind? how do you know what I'm considering?

This goes back to 4417. In lylo, it is optimal to locate the highest likelihood scumteam and stick with it. It doesn't mean you think other teams are impossible, it just means you're taking the play with what you believe is the highest probability of success.

I have stated at length that I think you/Raven is the most likely team and also that I think that the case for you and Raven being scum is pretty obvious and clear. That doesn't mean the case is 100%, even from my point of view, only that it is there and it is compelling. You are putting words in my mouth.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

how did you use the information from DSJ flipping town?

I didn't.

so why would you say you need the information from DSJ flip to figure things out if you don't even use the information !?

like you are just making shit up as you go along because you don't care about solving the game, it's just about coasting to the next mislynch for you

[Something_Smart]

Now instead of doing the "figure something out" part- you've gone back to "we need to lynch Pooky/Raven"

Which means your response was full of shit to begin with

Datisi changed his mind on Raven. That is one of the main things that caused my view of the game to come into focus.

If he hadn't done that, I'd probably be pushing him, but I would be torn between him and ducky.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

besides, are you in my mind? how do you know what I'm considering?

This goes back to 4417. In lylo, it is optimal to locate the highest likelihood scumteam and stick with it. It doesn't mean you think other teams are impossible, it just means you're taking the play with what you believe is the highest probability of success.

I have stated at length that I think you/Raven is the most likely team and also that I think that the case for you and Raven being scum is pretty obvious and clear. That doesn't mean the case is 100%, even from my point of view, only that it is there and it is compelling. You are putting words in my mouth.

ok make the case for Pooky/Raven

[Something_Smart]

You both are speaking essentially in unison today. You are pulling whatever you can out of my ISO and assigning it scum motivation without actually analyzing it, and you're shooting down whatever I say and trying to gaslight me by suggesting that my arguments are insane. You're ignoring the evidence I have given of decision making and insisting that you actually know what I did or didn't think about. You both have expressed a token suspicion on the other but ultimately decided that I was the right one to kill.

This is not at all a cooperative mindset. This is adversarial. This method of twisting the facts could be confirmation bias-- but confirmation bias rarely manifests itself in such a sudden (neither of you were remotely tunneled on me before today) or coordinated (you both are doing this in exactly the same way at exactly the same time) manner.

Meanwhile I have basically sat here and taken it, trying to deflect and break down your arguments while engaging the people I trust and trying to get on the same page as them (and get them on the same page as each other). I haven't really presented any arguments of my own, because I don't necessarily think that what I can produce is more meaningful than what they can produce, and whatever case they make will certainly be more meaningful to them.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Speaking in unison actually works against your case - I usually tell my scumpartner to straight up bus me while I distract and fuck with the town - look at what Aldus did in coalition. There's literally no way I tell my scumbuddy hey go all in on protecting me I need it.

[Something_Smart]

I wouldn't expect you to play the same way every game. Do you?

[Something_Smart]

You would be a very poor scum player if you did. You seem better than that to me.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

(neither of you were remotely tunneled on me before today)

this is a lie, I went against you yesterday

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Meanwhile I have basically sat here and taken it, trying to deflect and break down your arguments while engaging the people I trust and trying to get on the same page as them (and get them on the same page as each other). I haven't really presented any arguments of my own, because I don't necessarily think that what I can produce is more meaningful than what they can produce, and whatever case they make will certainly be more meaningful to them.

of course you would take it - there's no need for you to respond unless there's a chance you will lose this - as long as the prevailing town sentiment is on your side - scum-SS doesn't have to actually engage me

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I wouldn't expect you to play the same way every game. Do you?

I'm pretty sure I've never had a scum partner defend me ever in my entire history of playing this game much less defend me to the extent Raven has.

[Something_Smart]

this is a lie, I went against you yesterday

You weren't tunneled though. I thought your suspicion of me yesterday was pretty reasonable.

[Something_Smart]

of course you would take it - there's no need for you to respond unless there's a chance you will lose this - as long as the prevailing town sentiment is on your side - scum-SS doesn't have to actually engage me

There's always a chance I'll lose it.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what's your definition of tunneled?

I literally told the town they should lynch me and here's three possible ways night could play out and who would be the scum in each scenario - every scenario had you as scum - I'm not sure how much more clearly I had to say I believe SS to be scum.

In fact you can't even find me expressing absolute suspicion on anyone else yesterday

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

of course you would take it - there's no need for you to respond unless there's a chance you will lose this - as long as the prevailing town sentiment is on your side - scum-SS doesn't have to actually engage me

There's always a chance I'll lose it.

you don't have a reason to engage unless you thought you were losing it

[Something_Smart]

what's your definition of tunneled?

arguing that I am very likely to be scum and presenting arguments with either no evidence or bad evidence that's twisted to support your conclusion; essentially confirmation bias.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I didn't argue you were likely to be scum yesterday?

[Something_Smart]

you don't have a reason to engage unless you thought you were losing it

That doesn't really seem true to me. I generally believe that people like skitter are good enough that with no intervention they'll do a better than random job, so as scum I would feel much more motivated to try to tip the scales in my favor.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

but as town you wouldn't feel motivated to tip the scales?

[Something_Smart]

I didn't argue you were likely to be scum yesterday?

You didn't do the thing I described. You mentioned some reasonable concerns-- that I was too confident you were town, that I was being too passive-- but you never argued that it made me definitely scum, and you weren't voting me either.