Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Gamma Emerald]

The game isn't in the random voting stage as soon as there's something non-random to vote about. #31 appears to be the first post which contains a non-random (if weak) read, so it ended there.

Are you sure this is the post you meant to quote? This is not what you saying at all. A player is explaining something to another player. You wanna try again?

I did mean #31. "Bad post".

VOTE: BananaCucho
This is a stronger read than the read I had on RCEnigma. #107 and #109 (I haven't checked #108 because I have images turned off) are the sort of content that's a) easy to post as either alignment, and b) doesn't help solve the game at all as town.

This wouldn't be particularly scummy if it were posted together with more townish posts, but in isolation, it's pretty suspicious.

So what are you saying? Can you elaborate on the bolded?

Optimal strategy for scum would generally be to lurk (and thus give nothing away), except that intentionally lurking tends to look scummy in its own right. So the next best option, and one that happens ridiculously often in practice, is making posts that don't do or mean anything to make it look like you aren't lurking; you get the benefits of lurking and dodge some of the disadvantages.

(Also, I have a mild scum read on SJReaver from #115; people are way more likely to joke about being scum when they actually are scum.)

Really? How so?

I've been maintaining that this is a real tell for years (e.g. here). Actual results have been mixed; I've seen three joke scum claims, and one of them was from scum (from Firebringer here), but one of them was from Not_Mafia (for whom a scumclaim in the first post isn't alignment-indicative because he does it basically every game). So a 50% accuracy rate isn't that bad (given that only about a quarter of players are scum), although there isn't much data from my personal experience. (I can't remember where I first heard about the tell in question.)

FYI on a general level I agree scum claims are more likely to be scum, just based on what goes on at my homesite, but SJR’s behavior just feels very erratic in a newbish way, so I don’t exactly think it’s wise to make sweeping statements about what SJR is doing.

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

VOTE: Nosferatu

I'm not buying the sobriety excuse because I'm town and posting anyway right now. Nosferatu's post seems a little lurky and overconcerned. Like he thinks he can get away with it for an ML or two.

COJ seems overly concerned with Not_Mafia. I feel like he would be able to think more critically if he stopped mentioning Not_Mafia.

COJ and Not_Mafia nominated themselves for town leader and town "anti-town" and seem well suited for their roles respectively.

WaltertheDunce10 seems like he likes Twitter or LinkedIn or both.

Does everyone here just have a hair trigger temper when it comes to suspecting things
I feel like everyone’s just chomping at the bit for whatever vaguely suspicious thing they can find vs. actually probing to see if it’s a valid suspicion

[Gamma Emerald]

Scum was still caught day 1

I am 100% sure I can go through every single game on this site and find someone on day 1 claiming they have caught scum that by the end of the game will be true. but they don't get lynched....

It seems you hold the belief scum can’t be voted out D1, that’s blatantly untrue, sure it can sometimes be a fluke but a lot of times what may look like a fluke was actually just good play by town that goes uncredited because “oh D1 is such a crapshoot hurrdurr”
I’m a firm believer that people who dislike D1s are the main reason they’re so unproductive

[RCEnigma]

Scum was still caught day 1

I am 100% sure I can go through every single game on this site and find someone on day 1 claiming they have caught scum that by the end of the game will be true. but they don't get lynched....

Err if you want to see a game scum was caught page 1-2 and lynched day 1 I can oblige.

[geraintm]

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Nope. By the end of day 1 no one will have caught scum. Never happened before, it isnt going to change here

Wdym by “no one will have caught scum”

I find day 1s fairly useless, way too much noise and people being too clever. no one has got any info to go on and day one is just random....excepting scum never get lynched.

[callforjudgement]

Huh? At least nowadays, most of the time town wins, the groundwork was laid on day 1. An effective town will frequently arrange the gamestate such that scum have to play quite aggressively/unnaturally in order to halt a wagon on their own. In that situation, either scum bus and you get your day 1 caught scum, or else they don't bus and town notices and the scum start getting wiped out over the course of days 2-4. Then when you have a few flips, you can look back at day 1 and figure out the alignment of the player who came second in the vote, and that's often enough to solve the game from there.

This technique does rather need players to converge around a few wagons, though; this sort of reasoning is easiest when there's been genuine pressure on a few slots over the course of day 1. Right now, there are enough players who haven't had much chance to post that the votes are all over the place, and so there isn't much in terms of reaction to the gamestate to read. I think many experienced players have a habit of overstating the strength of their reads early on day 1 in order to try to get out of that aimless phase and into the useful "is this wagon going somewhere?" phase of Day 1, although that isn't really my style.

[Raya36]

oh,
Because I thought the memes and bruhs were not as helpful overall.
But asking qs is more helpful than nothing.
pedit
slight on sou
Very slight on sj but could just be her posting style.
Just a lot of nulls right now due to people like nm or people who have not been on.

You're right that asking questions is more helpful than nothing but what was done could so easily have been done as scum too. 142 and 147 are NAI.

Can you explain the slight scumreads?

[Raya36]

Raya, what do you make of Rce?

Nothing yet. I need time to read RCE. I don't think I could get a reliable read D1

[Raya36]

That post by frog seems really weird considering the fact that it was his second post all game. Something to keep an eye on.
N_m do you have any thoughts on the playerbase other than you are proud of the fact you caught scum D1.

I don't get why it is odd?

The interaction between Reaver and Walter at 31 felt weird or awkward maybe. Almost felt like maybe Walter was going for a push but then backed off when Reaver responded. I got the same feeling from 67.

callforjudgement's huge post 50 was a lot. I don't townread it but don't necessarily scum read it either. I just think it's something scum could do to try to take the credit of getting us out of rvs which is what seemed to be happening (55). After reading more it feels like he's either town tryharding or scum trying way too hard to be 'obvtown'. Time will tell.

I kinda like Banana for town. Just as an early gut read.


VOTE: callforjudgement

I don't get the vote. froma read where you say it is either A or B, you pretty hard veer into B
and that is a really obvious sucking up to Banana

hmm
I see where you come from on that.
I think he is a town lean for me because of his more recent posts like 142 and 147.

but then this from Walter, sucking up to Raya sucking up to Banana....well lets just say I have noticed this

Notice how I use my vote to put more pressure on callforjudgement to see if anything comes from it and I question and interact with Walter. I can't vote both so I picked the one to interact with that I think I'd learn more from that way and voted the one that would make a wagon

How is stating a town lean sucking up to someone?

[Raya36]

a

hmm
I see where you come from on that.
I think he is a town lean for me because of his more recent posts like 142 and 147.

but then this from Walter, sucking up to Raya sucking up to Banana....well lets just say I have noticed this

I will agree with this though. If Walter is scum I could see him doing this to try to get rid of my scumlean on him.

[Nosferatu]

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

what are you even saying bro
which one of us was drinking last night lmao

[callforjudgement]

I just noticed that sordros posted #117. I'd assumed that sordros had simply flaked / not had Internet access, but instead he decided to make a response that was fine in its own right, but ignored everything else that was going on in the game.

So far, sordros hasn't expressed a single read, hasn't posted anything directly related to the game, and hasn't answered my question in #72 (posted less than 2 minutes after sordros' last post). Meanwhile, sordros

has

been answering pretty much all the fluff questions available. I

really

don't like that combination.

(sordros does seem to be a lurker, but in the towngames I checked, sordros's few posts were generally stating reads and interacting with other players, rather than fluff. That said, sordros has no recent games, I had to look back over 5 years.)

VOTE: sordros

[geraintm]

@ call for judgement - lets agree that I see Day 1s differently to most and leave it there, otherwise we are going to spend a long time getting nowhere with each other and it will be a distraction.

@ Raya - I find it odd that you don't like me saying I thinking you are trying to generate karma with someone by saying you read them town for no good reason, but then agree when I say the same about someone doing it to you...
like....they are the same. you don't get to just say "i'm special" and brush it off

[Raya36]

I never said I don't like you saying that. I just don't get how me simply stating a townlean means I must be trying to pocket them?

The difference between me doing that to Banana and Walter to me is that I scumlean Walter so it makes sense for him to try to pocket me to turn that around.

[geraintm]

@raya - well, let me just keep this info for later when we have some flips and it might come up as important.

[SJReaver]

Walter has been scum read in every game I've seen him play. The man has a flair for being miseliminated.

No updated VC, I see. Give me time to see what you've been up to and find out how easy it is to slip under the radar.

[SJReaver]

VOTE: BananaCucho
This is a stronger read than the read I had on RCEnigma. #107 and #109 (I haven't checked #108 because I have images turned off) are the sort of content that's a) easy to post as either alignment, and b) doesn't help solve the game at all as town. This wouldn't be particularly scummy if it were posted together with more townish posts, but in isolation, it's pretty suspicious.

@SJReaver (#110): Why are you talking about day 1 in the past tense? Are you talking about a different game?

(Also, I have a mild scum read on SJReaver from #115; people are way more likely to joke about being scum when they actually are scum.)

Side note: I have limited access on Mondays and Thursdays, so I probably won't be able to post here for a few hours.

Citation needed.

The complete lack of comment on my Italiano case is interesting here. You’ve combed through at least a few posts from my previous games to see if I do ‘newbie greetings’ but when I point out how Italian’s posts are already quite different from his norm, you ignore that information and have a strong enough scumlean on Banana to vote for him.

Come on, mafia.

I'm vanilla townie. I don't care if you night kill me or not. Hang me on D1. You know people are going to look at the VC.

Try to miseliminate me. Come on, grow a pair and vote against SJR. Help save Italian VD.

Really Sj, Saying you are vanilla townie does not help.
Only helps scum narrow down prs.

Possibly.

This being mafiascum.com, if I said I liked kittens, I expect someone to waste their time tracking down any previous commentary about kittens from me, verify that it was positive, note my alignment and role in that game, and then ponder whether I was deliberately bringing that up again and how it fit into my kitten meta.

But I was lying anyways. I’m a paranoid gun nut baiting people into investigating me. I was hoping for vigilante but didn’t luck out, and now the only way I can kill people is if they take some initiative.

I'm with it VOTE: SJReaper

Could you point out what you view as scummy exactly from SJ?

Okay, I'll help you out: I am scum.

10000% scum.

A sign of intelligent life. (Thought it’s Reaver, not Reaper)

The very nature of percentages means that there’s no way I could be over 100% scum. That I claim to be more than that suggests I’m either a liar, an idiot, or both. Either way, you don’t want someone who can’t handle basic math in elo.

[BananaCucho]

The interaction between Reaver and Walter at 31 felt weird or awkward maybe. Almost felt like maybe Walter was going for a push but then backed off when Reaver responded. I got the same feeling from 67.

callforjudgement's huge post 50 was a lot. I don't townread it but don't necessarily scum read it either. I just think it's something scum could do to try to take the credit of getting us out of rvs which is what seemed to be happening (55). After reading more it feels like he's either town tryharding or scum trying way too hard to be 'obvtown'. Time will tell.

I kinda like Banana for town. Just as an early gut read.


VOTE: callforjudgement

I do get the feeling that Woolter is trying not to rock the boat much. Like he's asking questions and probing but most of them are softballs.

[BananaCucho]

VOTE: Nosferatu

I'm not buying the sobriety excuse because I'm town and posting anyway right now. Nosferatu's post seems a little lurky and overconcerned. Like he thinks he can get away with it for an ML or two.

COJ seems overly concerned with Not_Mafia. I feel like he would be able to think more critically if he stopped mentioning Not_Mafia.

COJ and Not_Mafia nominated themselves for town leader and town "anti-town" and seem well suited for their roles respectively.

WaltertheDunce10 seems like he likes Twitter or LinkedIn or both.

Nosferatu seems like he's trying to lurk and be overreactive and get town read for it by being hipster. Like Nosferatu is saying to himself "I have two or three other scum buddies, it's D1, nothing really to do, let me just throw this out there."

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

Tbh this vote feels like a pretty bad excuse for a vote. And the reaction feels forced.

VOTE: Frogsterking

[BananaCucho]

I've been maintaining that this is a real tell for years (e.g. here). Actual results have been mixed; I've seen three joke scum claims, and one of them was from scum (from Firebringer here), but one of them was from Not_Mafia (for whom a scumclaim in the first post isn't alignment-indicative because he does it basically every game). So a 50% accuracy rate isn't that bad (given that only about a quarter of players are scum), although there isn't much data from my personal experience. (I can't remember where I first heard about the tell in question.)

I disagree. I’ve seen it happen more from villagers and village power role players than from scum, not to say scum doesn’t do it, but I’ve seen it more the other way. (not on this site, but the other site I am a part of).

But in this case of SJReaver, a newb: 1) Do you really feel she would be more likely to do it and 2) Do you think her scum team would comfortably allow her to do it?

I agree with you, I've seen plenty of townies claim scum as a joke. I've done it myself as well. Besides, @Mr Essay, 2 instances is hardly data to base a theory off of

[BananaCucho]

5.
No.
Here I developed some even better questions!
1. Is it okay to put rotting produce into an uncooked stead as a filler?
What is the cinderblock you would like most as a pet?
Are pineapples good on pizzas?

VOTE: Walther
Now you’re just wasting time and space with this

Why would you call this out but not call me out for doing the exact same thing?

I disagree with any notion of "wasting time" when we have 2 week long days lol

[SJReaver]

Literally everyone read you as town at the end of day 1. Your play was perfect. And now it's ass.

Still the beginning of Day 1, give it time.

My reads are dynamic and often change.

If we eliminate you today and you flip green, I will totally read you as townie.

Reaver I am finding unhelpful

Alas, I scum read you as well, so my typically helpful nature is not showing itself.

[BananaCucho]

Likeable = scummy

Now I've heard it all

That’s

Not what CFJ said at all

It's basically what he said lol

[BananaCucho]

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

VOTE: Nosferatu

I'm not buying the sobriety excuse because I'm town and posting anyway right now. Nosferatu's post seems a little lurky and overconcerned. Like he thinks he can get away with it for an ML or two.

COJ seems overly concerned with Not_Mafia. I feel like he would be able to think more critically if he stopped mentioning Not_Mafia.

COJ and Not_Mafia nominated themselves for town leader and town "anti-town" and seem well suited for their roles respectively.

WaltertheDunce10 seems like he likes Twitter or LinkedIn or both.

Does everyone here just have a hair trigger temper when it comes to suspecting things
I feel like everyone’s just chomping at the bit for whatever vaguely suspicious thing they can find vs. actually probing to see if it’s a valid suspicion

You including yourself in that "everyone"?

5.
No.
Here I developed some even better questions!
1. Is it okay to put rotting produce into an uncooked stead as a filler?
What is the cinderblock you would like most as a pet?
Are pineapples good on pizzas?

VOTE: Walther
Now you’re just wasting time and space with this

[Raya36]

The interaction between Reaver and Walter at 31 felt weird or awkward maybe. Almost felt like maybe Walter was going for a push but then backed off when Reaver responded. I got the same feeling from 67.

callforjudgement's huge post 50 was a lot. I don't townread it but don't necessarily scum read it either. I just think it's something scum could do to try to take the credit of getting us out of rvs which is what seemed to be happening (55). After reading more it feels like he's either town tryharding or scum trying way too hard to be 'obvtown'. Time will tell.

I kinda like Banana for town. Just as an early gut read.


VOTE: callforjudgement

I do get the feeling that Woolter is trying not to rock the boat much. Like he's asking questions and probing but most of them are softballs.

And then backing off real quick when his pushes are retaliated on. I'd have to look into his meta and see if this is how he normally plays. Someone just mentioned he tends to get miselimed