Micro 962: Geriatric Trio II (Town Victory)

[Sou and Kanna]

the what

~sou

[Bell]

The aggro.
The pushiness.
The essence of datasi.
Where’s the sorting.

[Sou and Kanna]

i have zero clue of this datasi that you speak of good sir

also my sorting has been done
execute obvscum kmd then work from there
that was my solve
but he is a keeper of the jail
i was mistaken
and my sorting has been wrong

if you're expecting me to actually go back and reread this game *now* i will have to disappoint.

~sou

[Bingle]

you mean, motion detector should claim here because it's a direct counterclaim to the jailkeeper?

It's a direct cc to JK AND there's no utility to the role with a player who would be confscum to the MD. Without the combination of (without claiming MD gets no information tonight) and (MD claim is a direct CC) there's an argument to just leave the confscum alone to be revisited when they don't die.

I'm still gonna hold out hope that there's a cc though.

[Kmd4390]

I mean I'd love it if scum tried but I just don't see it happening when they can just kill me tonight

[Bingle]

If you're town you can still maybe save yourself by correct guessing who the person making the nightkill is.

Speaking of, you need to make a post about who you will target tonight if we flip a scum with the elimination so that they'll be conftown if we flip a scum with the elimination and you die anyway, just in case.

[AGar]

Klick seems engaged, so that's nice.

397 is more of the same shit of S&K that fits the pattern I noted in 187 - repeating shit for the sake of looking busy but not actually providing any new information. They've been in the backseat since we've moved past the whole joke drag out. Also the wagon climbing to E-1 early, then just patiently stalling out at E-2 for a bit, then dissipating with little fanfare is odd. I admittedly didn't put much into pushing it and it's the opportune structure of a wagon for scum to push a misyeet onto and then cop the blame onto an earlier voter/igniter.

Speaking of, you need to make a post about who you will target tonight if we flip a scum with the elimination so that they'll be conftown if we flip a scum with the elimination and you die anyway, just in case.

not sure how I feel about this. Admittedly not up on what the optimal strategery is, but it feels not great to me. idk. Putting this here for future reference/reflection maybe. If this is optimal strategery then I'll deal with it or something.

Not JK or Motion detector. Inclined to not believe kmd. 267 felt like a soft-claim for friendly neighbor (this was my conflicting internal dialogue), and the given crumb is weak af.

[Bingle]

In specifically the case with 1 scum remaining, any player who is targeted by a JK on the night of a kill is conftown. Therefore, KMD, if town needs to say “I will target {person} if we eliminate scum today.” Then, if we actually do hit a scum elimination, we have a conftown player or scum doesn’t make a kill that night.

Obviously if we don’t eliminate scum TownKMD would need to jailkeep to stay alive, which means not announcing his target.

Honestly I’m not sure how I feel about S&K anymore. I was sure that the fake read list was a MD crumb because mena flipped tracker in the game where he did that and the last few posts in that thread are all about crumbing.

[Kmd4390]

If you're town you can still maybe save yourself by correct guessing who the person making the nightkill is.

Speaking of, you need to make a post about who you will target tonight if we flip a scum with the elimination so that they'll be conftown if we flip a scum with the elimination and you die anyway, just in case.

If we hit scum I'm targeting you unless you're the scum we hit in which case I'll target The Bulge.

[Michael Scott]

Not JK or MD.

VOTE: Sou and Kanna

E-2.


- Date Mike (Volxen)

[Michael Scott]

I still think these posts seem exaggerated:

i poked them with a vote and asked them to explain them, but then they rep'd out. datisi has told me bugs doesn't like scum and perhaps this is a bit of a dirty read, but it really looked to me like they repped out cause they couldn't answer questions/was off to a bad start as scum.

Scumreading bugspray at this point is one thing, but there's no reason to strongly believe that scum!Bugspray would just give up and replace out because "everyone is onto me" at this stage of the game. Especially since SK already had said that their readslist was a joke before Bugspray replaced out. Datisi mentioned some games where he caught scum!Bugspray, but Bugspray also didn't replace out of those games.

red indicates you're strongly scumreading us, yes? but the way you preanalyse the wagons has us as town, and this is all within the same post. just the fact that it's there means i don't think you're scumreading us as hard as you say you are. gut says you just tmi'd us town + was to also porkens shade

I could see SK being suspicious of Agar over Agar's push on their slot, but saying that he TMI'd them as town just because he had them and Porkens both as scumreads seems over the top. Saying that he "TMI'd us as town" is basically saying that Agar is lockscum (town can't TMI), and I don't think that's merrited here.

It's not the reads themselves that stuck out to me, it's the confidence and reasoning behind the reads. I don't think that town!Kanna would be confidently scumreading Bugspray and Agar for the reasons they provided at the time they gave those reads.

if Clidd is town then some of his posts, such as his first readslist in 33, would seem townier to scum that it actually is, because at that point in the game scum might have just assumed that Clidd would end up being a universal townread. So scum may have just assumed that Clidd would probably start to get townread over posts like 33 and considered it a "towny" post without really evaluating its contents.

If Clidd/Bell is town then I still believe that that is true as well. Given Clidd's reputation for being obvtown when town I don't think that both scum would scumread town!Clidd, especially early on in the game.


- Date Mike (Volxen)

[Klick]

Not JK or MD.
After this post I'm going to look into the Kmd wagon and see what the votes there look like, considering Kmd is very likely town at this point.

@Klick: Where have people been shading Agar? I kind of thought he was a consensus tr and I don't really remember anyone expressing suspicion about him before now.

You and Kmd townread him from what I remember, but SK expressed suspicion of him with the TMI thing, Reck made one positive and two negative points about him and then put him in the top half of his reads list, and MS listed him and Kmd as the two people he thought were 'fine eliminations' in 183. I guess I'm surprised that no one has taken the opportunity to jump on him (other than SK for a bit)? Instead all the focus has been on Kmd/SK/you (and based on my current read of the game, I wouldn't be surprised if all of those wagons were/are on town).

I'm not a JK or motion detector. Motion detector should claim here because the only result they can get at this point is that KMD targeted someone.

This isn't true, is it? Motion Detector basically works as a Tracker if no other PRs are around, no?
Still think it would be correct to claim regardless.

also hi klick!!!!
klick reminds me of his entrance in that switch game
you were town there right?
did you know i played there
haha bet you didn't

Oh shit you were? Good, I was on point that game

Scumreading bugspray at this point is one thing, but there's no reason to strongly believe that scum!Bugspray would just give up and replace out because "everyone is onto me" at this stage of the game. Especially since SK already had said that their readslist was a joke before Bugspray replaced out. Datisi mentioned some games where he caught scum!Bugspray, but Bugspray also didn't replace out of those games.

I had the same impression of bugspray being likely scum for very similar reasons. I don't know bugspray very well, but it's fairly common knowledge that they strongly prefer being town to being scum and have a tendency to replace out of scum games. I've seen it happen far more often when they roll scum than when they roll town.
(And I strongly dislike having to make this argument, but it's there and it's definitely negatively impacting my view of the slot.)

Saying that he "TMI'd us as town" is basically saying that Agar is lockscum (town can't TMI), and I don't think that's merrited here.

What? This is an incredibly slippery argument - 'gut says you just tmi'd us as town' does not equal 'AGar is lockscum' and SK evidently don't think AGar is lockscum.
I also have an easy time following the AGar-TMI point and largely agree with it in concept. Unless you think it's exactly me/SK, at least one town is doing the things you're saying town wouldn't do here.


Sou and Kanna slot isn't scum, I'm like 90+% sure on that read. I'm lining up with their read on the game really easily and it makes me think they're town who thought the same things I did while reading.

[Klick]

Kmd wagon was Bingle, SK, MS and Bell. The first two were on him for a while, the last two jumped on right as I replaced in. MS and Bell votes both felt really hasty (especially considering there had just been a 24 hour deadline extension). SK vote is lazy/just sheeping Bingle for the most part.

If it's Bingle, I think they'd be pushing to protect exactly bugspray from getting attention today. I guess Bingle/SK also explains Bingle's push but their interactions don't feel S/S.

I don't think this wagon necessarily has to have scum on it yet (and if it doesn't, I'd say scum are likely to be very satisfied with the current gamestate). If there is scum, I'd lean towards MS.


VOTE: The Bulge

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote The Bulge

[xRECKONERx]

Vote Bingle

I won't be around much if at all til Thursday evening. I have to work because I'm important.

This was a crumb. I work at a prison. Im the jailkeeper.

i don't buy this at all buti also don't want the real JK to claim if kmd is lying.

how is it a crumb to mention work?? i know you work at a prison, that much is true, but this does not feel like a "crumb" to me, it feels like a comment you made about going to work that you are now trying to backpedal into being a breadcrumb

[Kmd4390]

I wouldn't have said the "I'm important" part because that makes no sense outside of the context of this game.

[Klick]

Reck if you're JK or MD you should claim it now. I will not believe you if you dodge now and claim it later. PRs aren't more important to keep alive than to CC scum with.

[xRECKONERx]

i am not claiming

[Klick]

Well, at this point the only two possible counterclaims to Kmd are you and Bulge. If Bulge doesn't CC then either you're CCing or you know Kmd is town.

[Bingle]

An outed JK still has massive utility if we only have one scum remaining. (See 407 if you don't understand why.) A MD has very limited utility unless we have only one scum remaining. We 100% want a CC today if there is one to be had.

I feel pretty good about Klick, although I'm not sure how much of that is me connecting with her playstyle. The quick jump in and the push to analyse the thread both come across as town to me though.

This isn't true, is it? Motion Detector basically works as a Tracker if no other PRs are around, no?
Still think it would be correct to claim regardless.

Sou and Kanna slot isn't scum, I'm like 90+% sure on that read. I'm lining up with their read on the game really easily and it makes me think they're town who thought the same things I did while reading.

wrt the tracker bit, exactly. If there's a Motion Detector, KMD is necessarily scum. Therefore, KMD will likely be making the NK. That means that the motion detector would only be able to get a guilty on KMD tonight, which is useless because the motion detector would already have a guilty on KMD (his claim). I didn't consider earlier the case that the other scum would make the kill because of the opportunity for it to be a JK only setup (A) but this doesn't really solve anything because as stated above, JK should absolutely claim here.

I accidentally snipped the bugspray bit and I don't think it's worth the effort to reinsert it, but I had thought they repped out because people (me and reck) got mad about them trying to play chess in a geriatric game and thus it was NAI. I'd be interested in further exploring your theory if there was a way I could see to do it, but unfortunately there's no way to ask bspray why they noped out.

I'm not sure what the lack of CC from S&K means for my read there, but given that I was wrong about the post being a crumb (or they were scum leaving a fake crumb) I have no reason to keep that card close to my chest anymore. I definitely haven't really been trying to sort S&K though otherwise because I thought the signalling to me was a very good sign and I knew I didn't want to yeet them today.

[The Bulge]

somebody who is still bringing up bugspray knows he is town. this is fucking ridiculous, I refuse to believe that the most circumstantial meta read I have ever fucking heard is so universally known and respected. If i am scum I promise you there is something to find in my iso

[The Bulge]

no cc

I didn't get to this last night but I'll 100% be here this afternoon

[Bingle]

UNVOTE:

Who knows bugspray and is sure you're town, and why?

That honestly seems like an interesting angle to pursue if the bugspray reps out more frequently as scum line is true.

[Aristophanes]

[Aristophanes]