Open 789: Two-Fold 2d3 [Game Over]


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Post Post #1825 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:50 pm

Post by Bell »

I'm humbled. :oops:
That was almost a perfect night for us I think.
VOTE: Teacher
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Post Post #1826 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:51 pm

Post by teacher »

Let’s dance Bell
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Post Post #1827 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:55 pm

Post by Bell »

Sure.
You seemed to suspect RCE the most yesterday and I don't see why you wouldn't use the NK to get rid of him.
You were one of three (if you don't include me *cough*) that kept bringing the wagon outside of Jake. Danflorr is gone so.
I think RCE was scum reading you.
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Post Post #1828 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:59 pm

Post by teacher »

Yes, RCE was suspecting me.
Yes, I hard defended Jake.

But I also gave intent on him and quite clearly left my L-1 vote on him up for several hours, with intent expressed, only to try hard defending.

Do you really honestly think that any scum busses like that?
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Post Post #1829 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:00 pm

Post by teacher »

I was wrong, but I thought it would make it pretty obvious I’m not mafia. I could have seen suspecting me as a wolf til RCE’s flip, but I don’t think my awkward positioning and flipping around Jake makes any sense for a partner whose going to have to play survivor.
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Post Post #1830 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:01 pm

Post by Bell »

I thought about that. I think it's within the realm of possibility. Given where the game state was I don't think it was a particularly novel bus.
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Post Post #1831 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:02 pm

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(And yes, I suspected RCE — which was (a) right, (b) why I wouldn’t use my nk on him, a slot I could easily push, and (c) why you should take his read of me with a giant grain of salt).
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Post Post #1832 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:39 pm

Post by teacher »

For what it’s worth, I’m pretty sure this game is about as near auto as it can get without actually being so. We don’t have any public set up information yet, but at 8:1:1 we have essentially two mis-eliminations, and those miseliminations are considerably less likely because
  • theres a 60% chance (49/81) that 4 of those 8 are PRs who won’t be counterclaimed if they are run up.
  • a 90% (77/81) chance that at least 3 are, and
  • in all cases, including the remaining 10% of only two PRs, there is a substantial likelihood that the PRs can clear other towns.
I have some additional setup thoughts, but want to sleep on them before trying to write them out.
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Post Post #1833 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:41 pm

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I wish yall could feel like I felt when we got the Jake flip.
I've got thoughts, but ill wait for everyone to chime in in case we have guiltoes
Edit: what teach said minus all the math
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Post Post #1834 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:37 pm

Post by Marashu »

I'm Seer. Bell is werewolf.

VOTE: Bell
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Post Post #1835 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:40 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 752, Bell wrote:Only half way mena. I kind of agree with Dann here.
Initial read has haven as townish again.
You seem like a carbon copy of all the games i’ve played with you.
I think this is a corner scum game. But I don’t think i’ve Seen you take pot shots there yet, why?
I checked him because it looked like he was softing my role here. It's why I said I had gutpings about him, but then I laid off when I realized if I pushed too hard, they might realize why and target me instead.
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Post Post #1836 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:43 pm

Post by Bell »

Aw. I wasn't.
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Post Post #1837 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:45 pm

Post by Marashu »

I really don't think dramonic or teacher or Hiraki are Jake's partner.
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Post Post #1838 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:45 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1836, Bell wrote:Aw. I wasn't.
Then count it up to caught for the wrong reasons.
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Post Post #1839 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:46 pm

Post by Marashu »

FWIW if you hadn't done that one specific thing, I was going to be checking Dannflor
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Post Post #1840 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:49 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1833, dramonic wrote:I wish yall could feel like I felt when we got the Jake flip.
I've got thoughts, but ill wait for everyone to chime in in case we have guiltoes
Edit: what teach said minus all the math
I honestly was hoping that Jake was werewolf so I'd be looking for his partner, so that the info I got wouldn't end up being us needing to find the other mafia but still getting 2 NK's tonight. I wish you could feel like I felt when D2 started.
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Post Post #1841 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:52 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1832, teacher wrote:For what it’s worth, I’m pretty sure this game is about as near auto as it can get without actually being so. We don’t have any public set up information yet, but at 8:1:1 we have essentially two mis-eliminations, and those miseliminations are considerably less likely because
  • theres a 60% chance (49/81) that 4 of those 8 are PRs who won’t be counterclaimed if they are run up.
  • a 90% (77/81) chance that at least 3 are, and
  • in all cases, including the remaining 10% of only two PRs, there is a substantial likelihood that the PRs can clear other towns.
I have some additional setup thoughts, but want to sleep on them before trying to write them out.
I don't think it's auto yet, but we're in a good place. We're getting scum again today. Worst case on D3 will be 7:1.
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Post Post #1842 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:18 pm

Post by chkflip »

I'm not reading 70 pages, to be clear.

Let's get this dub guys.
"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.
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Post Post #1843 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:37 pm

Post by Hiraki »

Vote: Bell
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Post Post #1844 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:37 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 1833, dramonic wrote:I wish yall could feel like I felt when we got the Jake flip.
I've got thoughts, but ill wait for everyone to chime in in case we have guiltoes
Edit: what teach said minus all the math
yeah we fucking DABBIN on the HATERS my GUY
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Post Post #1845 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:58 pm

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VOTE: Bell

carry me
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Post Post #1846 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:13 pm

Post by dramonic »

In post 1837, Marashu wrote:I really don't think dramonic or teacher or Hiraki are Jake's partner.
:neutral:
I have an ego, but not to the point of aggressively yelling at every counterwagon to me bussing my buddy from page 2.
Like if someone wanted to argue I'm wolf (moot at this point) we could have a talk, but anyone calling me mafia at this juncture needs to retire.

I'll vote Bell, but I still want to wait for everyone to at least chime in.
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Post Post #1847 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:15 pm

Post by chkflip »

What's the Bell wagon about?
"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.
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Post Post #1848 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:17 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1847, chkflip wrote:What's the Bell wagon about?
The Bell wagon is about I'm Seer, I investigated Bell, and got guilty.
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Post Post #1849 (ISO) » Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:18 pm

Post by chkflip »

Oh sick. Too easy.
"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.
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