Open 789: Two-Fold 2d3 [Game Over]

[teacher]

Hammer scum time!

[dramonic]

zoom fast night zoom
vote: Bell

[Bell]

Thank you.
Have fun all.

[TemporalLich]

VC 2.2

Bell (6) - Marashu, Hiraki, Chemist1422, Dunnstral, PenguinPower, teacher

[EXILED!]

teacher (1) - Bell

Not voting: Almost50, dramonic, chkflip

With 10 alive it takes 6 to exile.

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2020-09-07 21:00:00) or when an exile is reached.

[TemporalLich]

Bell has been exiled! He was a

Werewolf Roleblocker

Night 2 has begun! Please send in your night actions within (expired on 2020-08-31 13:10:00). If you want a Fast Night, all alive players need to submit Fast Night requests via PM to me.

[TemporalLich]

Fast Night has activated!

Dunnstral has died during the night. He was a

Town Cop

Day 3 has begun!

VC 3.0

Not voting: Marashu, PenguinPower, Hiraki, Almost50, dramonic, chkflip, Chemist1422, teacher

With 8 alive it takes 5 to exile.

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2020-09-09 10:00:00) or when an exile is reached.

[Marashu]

Unfortunate. He probably cleared someone who wasn't in his D2 suspect list on N1.

Massclaim?

[Almost50]

Massclaim?

Not the best move in my view. Here's why:

We do know we had a Town Cop. This means theoretically we may have (s) a Neapolitan or a Doctor (remaining Mafia is a Roleblocker), (b) a Tracker (remaining Mafia is a Rolecop), or (c) No more anti-Mafia PRs (remaining Mafioso is a Goon)

It is abundantly clear Nea/Doc become useless after a massclaim, and Tracker could still catch the Rolecop if they're not outed. If it's a lone Cop then the Goon can fake any of the fore-mentioned 3.

Furthermore, although we have eliminated the WWs, there's a Guardian or an Auditor out there and we don't want them outed today either.

Mathematically we are at 7-1 now. Assuming 3 PRs alive, Nea can give us 2 clear results, unless they've checked a PR. Doctor shouldn't claim if that's the one alive, and Tracker can only give us one clear.

Assuming 2 PRs alive (Seer + Auditor/Guardian) there is absolutely no point in a massclaim.

So, IF and ONLY IF there is a Neapolitan with TWO clears they should claim first, as it would put us on an auto-win. Otherwise, no massclaim for me.

[Chemist1422]

auditor/guardian should claim if they're in the PoE

I'll look back over Haven/Jake ISOs again

[Almost50]

VC 1.26

Jake The Wolfie (5) - dramonic, Hiraki, Marashu, Almost50, Bell [E-2]

teacher (2) - Dunnstral, RCEnigma
Dunnstral (2) - PenguinPower, teacher
dramonic (1) - Gamma Emerald
Hiraki (1) - Jake The Wolfie
Marashu (1) - Dannflor

Not voting: Chemist1422

With 13 alive it takes 7 to exile.

Day 1 deadline is currently frozen at 4 days, 0 hours, 0 minutes until replacements are found.

Marashu has been prodded.

Last mafia is probably in Penguin/Gamma/Teacher/Chemist. It can likely be narrowed down further from pr claims and actions tomorrow

Dunn probably checked in RCE/Dann (both N1 kills). First off, I very much doubt he would have checked ON the wagon (for obvious reasons). Second, He listed ALL LIVING PLAYERS off the wagon at the time of the quoted VC, which means he couldn't clear any of them.

His only post after that was:

Of those, Chemist/Teacher both basically said 'whatever' and voted jake at the last moment, while Penguin was actively campaigning for anybody else he could convince. Gamma did a bit where he asked someone why they thought jake was town, then a few posts later said they were considering lobbying against the wagon, but after reading decided against it. Kind of weird progression

Which -again- confirms he didn't have a clear on any of the 4 slots.

[Almost50]

auditor/guardian should claim if they're in the PoE

ONLY if they are being wagoned. As long as we don't have a lol!hammer I think we are good.

[Hiraki]

mafia could also have rolecop which means they know the PRs anyway, not helpful unless they have something helpful

Vote: Chemist

[dramonic]

mafia could also have rolecop which means they know the PRs anyway, not helpful unless they have something helpful

Vote: Chemist

I think there's a fairly solid chance mafia does have said rolecop and actually saw Dunn Night 2, which is how he ended up shot today. The quick night works out for them because they get to silence a strong town role against them.

I want a massclaim before we hit scum.

If we have 3 living PRs with one good result, we can win from here.

[chkflip]

No mass claim.

[Chemist1422]

Spoiler:

VOTE: Almost50

Hey marashu, you're mafia or werewolf this time?

With any luck, both of them will fall for the gambler's fallacy and NK me, effectively reducing NKs by 1.

I assume youre just playing along with Gypyx's joke but if not why do you think mafia/werewolf would target the other faction this early?

Partly - it makes sense to me that scum would try to take each other down so they could control the game state, Prisoner's dilemma style. They could hunt PRs, but risk being picked off if the other team isn't doing that.

Considering they just spent 2 pages circle-jerking, I'm not sold.
That and I'm somehow at 5 out of 4, which is an issue.

vote: TripleHaven

Also teacher and marashu, with one of Dann or Menalque, not sure which since they're both spamming banter rn.

Mind explaining the read on teacher and myself?

VOTE: TripleHaven

I didn't like the way she came in (and I remember hearing a stat that new scum have a higher tendency to say a greeting in their first post). Haven't really felt anything towny since.

I'm not new scum, have played 30+ games on MU (4/5 scum winrate btw... please don't ask about my town winrate) Also that stat is dumb even if I was new scum.

here's a list of game's i've opened "hi smile" in
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4057419

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost3954031

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost3954038

I was scum in 1 and town in the other 2
it's insanely NAI outside of these facts but whatever

dramonic your case on me is dumb
not even half the stuff you point out is AI for me at all

to the dramonic post:

1. you say i'm "spamming" the newb card then point out 2 posts. Apparently 2 posts is spamming. Also, it wasn't even spamming the newb card, it was spamming the "i'm new to this site" card which ARE DIFFERENT
2. and you were expecting me to explain my vote change back then... why? it was RvS, the votes literally didn't matter. The "umulaut was sheeping" thing wasn't even being serious to begin with either. Umulaut voting was like, the second post of the game
3. ???? how does this make me scum ????
4. Or maybe, instead of "caught for the wrong reason" it's "towny pushing against the dumbest reason to scumread them they've ever seen" I've been ML'd like 10+ times and that last part isn't even an exaggeration.
5. It's not even an allusion of content, I was just confused about the post in general.

Dram i wanna conclude that your bad case on me is just towny bad but the lack of anything else towny in your ISO is making me doubt that

LOL
VOTE: dramonic

Are you done votehopping yet?

I've voted 4 people this game
two of which weren't even serious votes

You've voted 5, 3 of which in the last 12 hours.
And they were serious until someone called you out.

either way your point is stupid and me voting a lot of people is irrelevent to my allignment unless you want to convince me otherwise

like do you *actually* have a problem with me voting a lot of people or do you just want to keep shading me

haven stuff

pretty sold on marashu and dramonic being town from this

[dramonic]

...also Marashu is a claimed PR and I was the spearhead of that wagon '_'

[chkflip]

Yeah nobody has ever hard bussed their buddy before.

[dramonic]

Do you realize how thoroughly fucked I'd be in a game with possibly 2 PRs who can catch me, the solid chances of a crosskill and not letting counterwagons happen this much?

[chkflip]

The remaining mafia player is either someone very experienced, very smart, or very lucky. Their kills were both on point for their win condition. Calculated risk, etc.

[chkflip]

VC 1.26

Jake The Wolfie (5) - dramonic, Hiraki, Marashu, Almost50, Bell [E-2]

teacher (2) - Dunnstral, RCEnigma
Dunnstral (2) - PenguinPower, teacher
dramonic (1) - Gamma Emerald
Hiraki (1) - Jake The Wolfie
Marashu (1) - Dannflor

Not voting: Chemist1422

With 13 alive it takes 7 to exile.

Day 1 deadline is currently frozen at 4 days, 0 hours, 0 minutes until replacements are found.

Marashu has been prodded.

Last mafia is probably in Penguin/Gamma/Teacher/Chemist. It can likely be narrowed down further from pr claims and actions tomorrow

No cop clears, but one can infer he got a clear outside of this list.

Generally unhelpful but a place to start.

[Chemist1422]

...also Marashu is a claimed PR and I was the spearhead of that wagon '_'

look

i'm starting at level 0 just to ensure i'm not insane

[dramonic]

The remaining mafia player is either someone very experienced, very smart, or very lucky. Their kills were both on point for their win condition. Calculated risk, etc.

I'll take the compliment :p
I'd be most tempted to ex between gammaslot and chemist
...
Coincidentally, you are gammaslot

I still feel fairly strongly about mafia having a rolecop, because the dunn shot feels really... arbitrary? Scum has information over us by virtue of knowing which setup we can be in, I don't see why they wouldn't try to shoot a bigger townslot.
RCE was just meant as a low-info bullet that hit ww imo.

btw we're lynching chemist today regardless

[dramonic]

exec*

[Hiraki]

i thought about it more - i am sort of on the massclaim side again

[teacher]

Essentially we are playing the old newby setup, with two extraneous PRs. Clearly Pp is the expert in that setup, but he hasn’t been here. I don’t care much about massclaim or not at this point.


VOTE: chemist is still the most likely pairing for Jake in my book.