Newbie 2023 - Hedgehogs - Day 3

[the worst]

What’s that? With as much detail as possible?
I don’t want to.

I think Bell's rxn to my replace in should almost always be town.

[the worst]

Shelly town - Less sure on this one myself. They seemed newbie and genuine and not afraid to push but also very agreeable, as Bell said. I don't want to elim them today when scummier people are walking around. I plan on rereading everything they said and analyzing them during the night phase, however.

This read actually makes me want to talk about something post-game. This is a note to myself.

Bell town - Have been very insightful and pro-town, posting often, asking the most useful town questions, and haven't really said or done anything scummy in my eyes. They come across as genuinely trying to solve the most. If they are scum, then at the very least, they are playing extremely well and only time I might vote for them currently is if they did a really scummy thing or if it was ELO with me, bell, and someone else with 1 maf. And in that case, I'd have to think long and hard before I voted Bell.

From what I can see I agree with this. Just to add fuel to the fire: what did you think of the way Bell reacted in a friendly fashion to my appearance, and then snapped at me for hedging on notscience?

Andres, well, seems too scummy to be scum, with the exception of being really agressive like a how I think a VT should be, and not posting as much, even with an ATE like you said. Since he is experienced, if he is scum, then he is acting like scum to get away with being scum, do you think the other newbies would WIFOM like that? I'd think not; most newbies would probably call him out on being scummy and wagon him with newbie majority; that gambit is too risky for anyone but a VT (I also did something similar as a town role) in a newbie game. So therefore, he is probably town.

I should add the caveat that while experienced, Andres' towngame is quite a lot stronger than his scumgame. He is liable to make "scummy" posts as scum and while I'm not sure his absence is directly alignment indicative, I think there's quite a ridge between his real thought processes, and the thought processes he takes as scum.

Sorry if this feels kind of contrary/defeatist; the point you made about someone self-aware trying not to come across as scummy only applies to players who have fairly strong scumgames and can basically make a flash decision on how they want to be perceived. To turn the table back on you, does this information make you reconsider your read on him?

(As an aside btw, please don't try to talk about reads on players as "likely vanilla" or "likely power role"; this is very much a ~teaching moment~ if Andres has already claimed but if he *hadn't* then those types of reads may help scum shorten their list of potential town power roles)

[the worst]

Oh yeah bulge said I was near 100% town too

What should I be getting out of this?

[notscience]

He just clowned my buddy through me as scum. (Ie clowned my buddy before I even flipped)

So basically he either has to be scum w/ me and I derailed a wagon I gave intent for to clown him or I’m town

I really like being townread. It’s what I used to be the best at. I’m working on being better with reads.

[notscience]

Anyways I’m going to bed I’ll be around tomorrow.

[the worst]

I haven't seen a bulge post in this game yet but I'd say 100% town reads are a lot more likely to come from scum attempting to pocket or damage the gamestate than from town. Alternately it's possible you have like really really good posts earlier I guess - do you feel like it's appropriate to 100% townread you here or is bulge a cheeky pocketing scum?

[the worst]

I'll allow it, have a good night.

[notscience]

I’m also just that easy to read if you’re used to me. I have been meaning to step up my scum game.

I do think it is something by scum used to pocket, but my main point was regardless of his alignment it should be pretty evident I’m town

[notscience]

I’m waiting for my gf to come to bed so I’m around a bit longer

[the worst]

I passionately disgraee with that as an holistic/general tell but I might agree with it this game. I'll report back on this.

[the worst]

That's fine. I'm gonna call an Andres/JOYED team so we can all read this and laugh postgame if I'm right.

[PlusJOYED]

[quote="In post 1276, the worst]
(As an aside btw, please don't try to talk about reads on players as "likely vanilla" or "likely power role"; this is very much a ~teaching moment~ if Andres has already claimed but if he *hadn't* then those types of reads may help scum shorten their list of potential town power roles)[/quote]
He already claimed VT

[the worst]

I know it's not important for this game, just something that I thought to share in case it's important at a future date. /o/

this is mafia boot camp and you will all be mafia gods after I am done with you!

[PlusJOYED]

Shelly town - Less sure on this one myself. They seemed newbie and genuine and not afraid to push but also very agreeable, as Bell said. I don't want to elim them today when scummier people are walking around. I plan on rereading everything they said and analyzing them during the night phase, however.

This read actually makes me want to talk about something post-game. This is a note to myself.

Bell town - Have been very insightful and pro-town, posting often, asking the most useful town questions, and haven't really said or done anything scummy in my eyes. They come across as genuinely trying to solve the most. If they are scum, then at the very least, they are playing extremely well and only time I might vote for them currently is if they did a really scummy thing or if it was ELO with me, bell, and someone else with 1 maf. And in that case, I'd have to think long and hard before I voted Bell.

From what I can see I agree with this. Just to add fuel to the fire: what did you think of the way Bell reacted in a friendly fashion to my appearance, and then snapped at me for hedging on notscience?

Andres, well, seems too scummy to be scum, with the exception of being really agressive like a how I think a VT should be, and not posting as much, even with an ATE like you said. Since he is experienced, if he is scum, then he is acting like scum to get away with being scum, do you think the other newbies would WIFOM like that? I'd think not; most newbies would probably call him out on being scummy and wagon him with newbie majority; that gambit is too risky for anyone but a VT (I also did something similar as a town role) in a newbie game. So therefore, he is probably town.

I should add the caveat that while experienced, Andres' towngame is quite a lot stronger than his scumgame. He is liable to make "scummy" posts as scum and while I'm not sure his absence is directly alignment indicative, I think there's quite a ridge between his real thought processes, and the thought processes he takes as scum.

Sorry if this feels kind of contrary/defeatist; the point you made about someone self-aware trying not to come across as scummy only applies to players who have fairly strong scumgames and can basically make a flash decision on how they want to be perceived. To turn the table back on you, does this information make you reconsider your read on him?

(As an aside btw, please don't try to talk about reads on players as "likely vanilla" or "likely power role"; this is very much a ~teaching moment~ if Andres has already claimed but if he *hadn't* then those types of reads may help scum shorten their list of potential town power roles)

Well ... if you say his town game is strong and his scum game is weak, and you've known him, yeah it does.
I'm hesitant now, since this could also be a lie from you qbout Andres. If he flips town, my scumread on bella will probably carry over to you. And if he flips scum I'll be a pretty obvious lynch the next night, and while I'm fine with dying if it can help catch scum, I've defended andres all game based on that read and now I don't think my death will help the town or if I can say much to help town right before I'm lynched day 3.

[the worst]

I'm not sure if I'd outright call his scumgame "weak", but it sounds like you've got roughly the right idea of what I was trying to explain, yeah. Do you think I'm lying and Andres is town? Could you explain a bit on why you townread him prior to it being pointed out that he's experienced?

Did you drop your scumread on Bella or on me? if so why/why not etc.

[PlusJOYED]

I'm not sure if I'd outright call his scumgame "weak", but it sounds like you've got roughly the right idea of what I was trying to explain, yeah. Do you think I'm lying and Andres is town? Could you explain a bit on why you townread him prior to it being pointed out that he's experienced?

Did you drop your scumread on Bella or on me? if so why/why not etc.

I think you're telling the truth. Though if Andres flips town then I think you replaced into a scum slot.

I concede this is a team game and I've been easing off my tunnel on NS quite a bit but I still think they're scum, but it doesn't really matter if I'm the only one who votes them.

Also why would scum Andres claim VT. That seems like a huge mistake in my eyes if he was scum sitting at 1 vote from death AND shelly said they were waiting to hammer them until we got a bella replacement but thought andres was scum too. Assuming they are self aware in that they are most likely going to get elimed, how would they not claim a PR there to lure out the counterclaim PR, so then their partner knows who to kill?
Unless ... they have a mafia rolecop and have already found the other PR.

You know what, your statement about Andres is very telling of the gamestate. Assuming Andres flips town, you are probably lying as scum, and town goes after you next I think and probably kills you. If he flips scum, I'll probably be lynched but we're closer to solving.

I think I'll hammer Andres in a moment, but I'll let you respond to this post first before I do.
UNVOTE: Notscience

[PlusJOYED]

Also my memory is a little fuzzy on Bella scumread, think it was mainly cause she was defensive and not posting much. The more telling part is that my biggest scumread NS was going after Bella and they already campaigned to elim a townie. If they did it again and survived then they had to be scum, if that makes sense.

[the worst]

you're reading a lot into my comment about andres. that's like, a first impression of him as a player/in general. i haven't read 95% of this game yet.

can you please tell me why you're willing to hammer andres after townreading & defending him for such a long time?

[Bell]

hammer =the eliminating vote.
It takes 4 votes to eliminate.
The fourth vote would be hammer.

[PlusJOYED]

I'm not sure if I'd outright call his scumgame "weak", but it sounds like you've got roughly the right idea of what I was trying to explain, yeah. Do you think I'm lying and Andres is town? Could you explain a bit on why you townread him prior to it being pointed out that he's experienced?

Did you drop your scumread on Bella or on me? if so why/why not etc.

I think you're telling the truth. Though if Andres flips town then I think you replaced into a scum slot.

I concede this is a team game and I've been easing off my tunnel on NS quite a bit but I still think they're scum, but it doesn't really matter if I'm the only one who votes them.

Also why would scum Andres claim VT. That seems like a huge mistake in my eyes if he was scum sitting at 1 vote from death AND shelly said they were waiting to hammer them until we got a bella replacement but thought andres was scum too. Assuming they are self aware in that they are most likely going to get elimed, how would they not claim a PR there to lure out the counterclaim PR, so then their partner knows who to kill?
Unless ... they have a mafia rolecop and have already found the other PR.

You know what, your statement about Andres is very telling of the gamestate. Assuming Andres flips town, you are probably lying as scum, and town goes after you next I think and probably kills you. If he flips scum, I'll probably be lynched but we're closer to solving.

I think I'll hammer Andres in a moment, but I'll let you respond to this post first before I do.
UNVOTE: Notscience

Well, he has been acting scummy all game and pretty sure you'd agree and the crux of my townread is him being too scummy to be scum.

[the worst]

Also why would scum Andres claim VT. That seems like a huge mistake in my eyes if he was scum sitting at 1 vote from death AND shelly said they were waiting to hammer them until we got a bella replacement but thought andres was scum too. Assuming they are self aware in that they are most likely going to get elimed, how would they not claim a PR there to lure out the counterclaim PR, so then their partner knows who to kill?
Unless ... they have a mafia rolecop and have already found the other PR.

this is an interesting theory point. i'm going to talk about it because it is kinda important, but if you think i'm speaking gibberish then just let me know and we can pick this up after the game.

this setup is what we call a "semi-open" game. there's a predefined number of players who can be town power roles (1-2) and a predefined number of players who can be truly be vanilla townies (4-5). so if we have more than 3 people in the TPR pool, we know for a fact that [1-2 of 3] players are scum. Under some circumstances, the players in the TPR pool are also confirmable as town just because of their role.

If we have too many claims in the VT pool, on the other hand, all we know that [1-2 of 5-8] are scum. so there is some dayplay utility in claiming a TPR to draw a counterclaim, but there is also a high utility in claiming VT to try to 'blend into' the larger pool of players.

so as a really rough rule of thumb:
- scum will claim TPR if they think they are going to die. they will do this to set their partner up well. this happens via killing the TPR and/or thinking that after they flip red, their partner is unlikely to be considered a partner.
- scum will claim VT if they think they can survive until endgame, because there is a higher number of viable mis-elims in the VT pool than in the TPR pool.

given Andres has claimed VT and then AtE'd to shift votes off himself, it strikes me as entirely possible that he thinks he can survive.

[the worst]

Well, he has been acting scummy all game and pretty sure you'd agree and the crux of my townread is him being too scummy to be scum.

Sure. Sorry if this sounds obtuse, but I still don't really understand where your read originated. If it's not too much trouble could you like, dig a couple of his earliest posts which made you think he was town?

[PlusJOYED]

hammer =the eliminating vote.
It takes 4 votes to eliminate.
The fourth vote would be hammer.

Oops, I forgot notscience switched off of andres and onto bulge, my mistake.

[PlusJOYED]

Well, he has been acting scummy all game and pretty sure you'd agree and the crux of my townread is him being too scummy to be scum.

Sure. Sorry if this sounds obtuse, but I still don't really understand where your read originated. If it's not too much trouble could you like, dig a couple of his earliest posts which made you think he was town?

Sorry, I should really go to bed. I have work in 7 hours, so this will be my last post. For now, I guess know that I think just about every player has scumread him at some point to a degree this game that I can remember. From that, and given what you said, you will probably scumread him too.
VOTE: Andres

[the worst]

VOTE: PlusJOYED (this is a placeholder vote but also serious)