Open 789: Two-Fold 2d3 [Game Over]

[teacher]

Yoink.

[Hiraki]

Gonna wait for Hiraki and Almost50's claims, but from there we can drive to the win.

vt

[PenguinPower]

Chem > Hiraki > A50 then?

[dramonic]

nah

I'm not actually the doc.
or a PR for that matter.
Teacher kind of hit the nail on the head earlier today in regards to scum having a window to fakeclaim a PR as a goon and I wanted to block that window since there was no way they'd CC me (they COULD have, but they didn't).
Teacher and Marashu's roles are actually just named townie, we don't have clears on penguin and chkflip.

Don't think it'll matter much, since just lynching chemist ends the game, but otherwise I'd actually expect Hiraki or Almost to double-down and CC me as a goon, reading through my plan.

anyways

vote: chemist

Feel free to chastise me :p

[PenguinPower]

[chkflip]

CC'ing Doc with this many townies alive? All by themselves?

You can't be serious.

[dramonic]

They know I'm lying chk, they know they're a goon and therefore there is no PR besides the dead cop.
It's not a risky CC

[teacher]

Yea, so.....you got me to out myself as named Townie when I was very much in the PoE and could have been a scum push who could safely claim....why, exactly?

[dramonic]

I literally just explained that <_<

[teacher]

To prevent a fake cc. But there never would be a fake cc today OR TOMORROW because we have three eliminations. So what again was the public benefit of claiming today?

[dramonic]

exhibit A)
If I were scum, nobody questionned my claim. I can shoot you tonight and win because we autolynch chemist, almost and hiraki.

[Almost50]

CC'ing Doc with this many townies alive? All by themselves?

You can't be serious.

If I was a Goon I probably would have CC'd. dram is the town leader and there's no way he's getting eliminated otherwise. At night I remove the Auditor to prevent any further "false" confirmations (or worse, him checking me and finding me out). Tomorrow we eliminate Chemist and I shoot any of you/PP/Marashu (doesn't matter cuz marashu can't catch me), and then we eliminate Hiraki (the only one seemingly unconfirmed) and it's game over (me vs 2 confirmed townies going into the night).

Nice play, dram. Really nice play

P-edit: WAIT! You bring up another angle I never really considered. You probably would NOT have been eliminated today because that would have been really poor play if you were scum, so you probably would have been acquitted. Hmmm...

[Almost50]

So, recalculating: dram becomes un-eliminatable (is that a word?), and with 2 PRs and 2 "falsely" confirmed townies; scum!me would have been cornered. Geez! That's even BETTER play by dram than I thought it was.

[teacher]

I’m missing something, maybe?

Scum never counter claims today or tomorrow because if they do, we can eliminate both claimants and autowin.

Only scum knew we were in column C.

If we were really in column A or B, someone could have counterclaimed Dram, and town would lynch both

So Drams fake claim would have had the downside of: outting our PRs (as it did) and the upside of.....what exactly, if you do not assume knowledge that we are in column C?

[Almost50]

Scum never counter claims today or tomorrow because if they do, we can eliminate both claimants and autowin.

Actually, you're spot on. I was looking at it from the wrong perspective. 2 contradicting claims = one is scum, guaranteed, and we only have one scum alive so eliminate both and auto-win is correct.

[Chemist1422]

dram is still town

game doesn't end with me being executed, still need to find a town in {PP/A50/Hiraki} like I originally told y'all to

chk should also probably be in there if i'm counting correctly? not sure why he wasn't originally

[Hiraki]

Don't think it'll matter much, since just lynching chemist ends the game, but otherwise I'd actually expect Hiraki or Almost to double-down and CC me as a goon, reading through my plan.

let me be clear

scumHiraki would absolutely not see this plan

i am still very garbage with roles and role spec - i have tried for years to get better but it just doesn't work

scumHiraki sees what townHiraki sees which is that if you CC, it's autowin for town and if you don't, it's not autowin since there's one PR dead and one VT dead making it a 1v4 (or 5?) scenario. not sure where your head was at with this one but maybe i'm missing something?

they know they're a goon

i don't follow this either, how do they know that? i thought the roles on the mafia/wolves tables were separate?

i still think chemist flips scum here btw

exhibit A)
If I were scum, nobody questionned my claim. I can shoot you tonight and win because we autolynch chemist, almost and hiraki.

and since i am town, i would then lynch you tomorrow for not being dead. this is the realization that i think you keep forgetting and why this is making me paranoid

[Hiraki]

Unvote

actually i need to think for a moment

i don't see a scenario where dunn doesn't investigate chemist tbh

[Almost50]

I am going to stop arguing/thinking about this because I keep mixing theory with reality. Like, I started thinking that it could still be PP/chkflip (albeit in theory) and considered I could have been eliminated along with dram (if I was a PR) and then Hiraki and chemist would probably be "mis"eliminated, totally forgetting that if I was a PR then PP/chkflip would have been

truthfully

confirmed and chemist/Hiraki would not both miseliminations to begin with. I probably need to take break now to give my brain a little break (doing 3-4 things at the same time has that effect, but I can't help it.. I'm a Gemini)

[Hiraki]

a50 - who do you think dunn targets N1?

[Almost50]

I don't know. I

assumed

he targets someone off wagon (as he implied that was his pool) but then he didn't hint he had a clear on any of the living 3 at the time, so I again

assumed

he targeted Dann or RCE

[Almost50]

VC 1.26

Jake The Wolfie (5) - dramonic, Hiraki, Marashu, Almost50, Bell [E-2]

teacher (2) - Dunnstral, RCEnigma
Dunnstral (2) - PenguinPower, teacher
dramonic (1) - Gamma Emerald
Hiraki (1) - Jake The Wolfie
Marashu (1) - Dannflor

Not voting: Chemist1422

With 13 alive it takes 7 to exile.

Day 1 deadline is currently frozen at 4 days, 0 hours, 0 minutes until replacements are found.

Marashu has been prodded.

Last mafia is probably in Penguin/Gamma/Teacher/Chemist. It can likely be narrowed down further from pr claims and actions tomorrow

Dunn probably checked in RCE/Dann (both N1 kills). First off, I very much doubt he would have checked ON the wagon (for obvious reasons). Second, He listed ALL LIVING PLAYERS off the wagon at the time of the quoted VC, which means he couldn't clear any of them.

His only post after that was:

Of those, Chemist/Teacher both basically said 'whatever' and voted jake at the last moment, while Penguin was actively campaigning for anybody else he could convince. Gamma did a bit where he asked someone why they thought jake was town, then a few posts later said they were considering lobbying against the wagon, but after reading decided against it. Kind of weird progression

Which -again- confirms he didn't have a clear on any of the 4 slots.

Dunn's 4 were all the living players off the wagon at the time of this VC (aside from himself). chemist/teacher both joined the wagon later on, so I deduced Dunn had all 6 players off wagon in his pool and checked one, and when that one (and another) flipped he removed them from the pool, but had no clear to announce or crumb.

[dramonic]

I’m missing something, maybe?

Scum never counter claims today or tomorrow because if they do, we can eliminate both claimants and autowin.

Only scum knew we were in column C.

If we were really in column A or B, someone could have counterclaimed Dram, and town would lynch both

So Drams fake claim would have had the downside of: outting our PRs (as it did) and the upside of.....what exactly, if you do not assume knowledge that we are in column C?

You're missing something, indeed.

If we were in A/B, someone woulda CCed me and I'd just back out. Neither dies in that instance. From there we just win because your clear pool shrinks the suspects to just those 3, but if you were a guardian instead
A) neapo/tracker has at least 1 clear hopefully
B) Doc makes for 4 townslots (I'm counting myself) and it's really improbable that we miss scum 3 times in a row?


Scum knows we're in column C.
Scum knows my claim is a lie.
I think savvy scum might CC me because they know I have to back out of the claim if challenged (cuz I'm not a PR and we both know it).
Less experienced scum cowers at the claim and claim VT, revealing the setup to the town.
Everyone knows we're in C


Compare and contrast no claim today:

Scum still knows we're in column C and therefore knows both town living PRs are just named townies.
They can fakeclaim with impunity because we have no way of knowing if they're lying unless we have a living auditor who has checked them and hasn't claimed before they do.

In case you forgot, I may be spearheading but I'm not truly confirmed so I was in your "not confirmed" pile. In a vacuum I would expect whoever is alive in endgame lynched over a WIFOM PR if it comes down to endgame between the two of them not being "confirmed".


tl:dr you're gonna die, but scum has no tactics left beside play.

[dramonic]

they know they're a goon

i don't follow this either, how do they know that? i thought the roles on the mafia/wolves tables were separate?

...cuz they read their role PM? Scum knows their own role?
I don't understand how you're questionning this :p

exhibit A)
If I were scum, nobody questionned my claim. I can shoot you tonight and win because we autolynch chemist, almost and hiraki.

and since i am town, i would then lynch you tomorrow for not being dead. this is the realization that i think you keep forgetting and why this is making me paranoid

doc implies a scum roleblocker, I can get blocked and teacher shot. -> we exec one of you/almost -> I got blocked and marashu shot -> we exec almost/you -> I win


And sorry I assumed you'd catch on as scum.

[dramonic]

I might be overestimating scum here, but there is (well was) little benefit to not CC me as scum, especially after Teacher listed his investigations.