Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[Datisi]

ahh gotcha

question still stands, got feels on anyone other than hoopla/drd?

pedit: @word

[word321]

he caught my attention with the vote, and he was closer in time, and he needed more content
theres no real reason as to why him and not anyone else

[word321]

no, dnt rly have other hot takes

[word321]

but I am interested on urs
if u have any takes, do share em by all means

[word321]

whats the point on gypyxs wagon?

[Datisi]

but I am interested on urs
if u have any takes, do share em by all means

i'm getting townpings from ico
s_s and drd are my "my gut is telling me this person is town but i have no reasoning to back it up with" reads
i have a sorta scumread that i'm gonna sit on for a bit more
uhhh that's about it

whats the point on gypyxs wagon?

back when i voted him i was thinking his posts on page one were forced/awkward
then his response to my poking felt kinda weird
i'm taking the fake hammer reaction thing to be NAI
i'll think more about this read in the morning

[Grumpy Cat]

i have a sorta scumread that i'm gonna sit on for a bit more

It better not be me. Sitting on cats is not okay people

[Datisi]

i would never sit on a cat

grumpy, were your townreads from before serious?

[Grumpy Cat]

Townread is a strong word but town impressions yes

[Datisi]

S_S, Gypyx, Green Crayons, Clover town.

elaborate on green and especially clover?

[Grumpy Cat]

Hey everyone! Quick question, are wolves normally able to talk about what numbers they want to pick like on other sites? Because if that's the case it's probably 1 max in each group.

This kind of innocent mech question comes from town most of the time, rather than scum faking it,

if

there's valid reason for asking it, which there seems to be here since Clover has played the setup on other sites.

[Grumpy Cat]

Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.

[Datisi]

as much as i'm finding it weird to get townpings from one mech post, i sorta find myself nodding along to 210

grumpy town maybe???

[Grumpy Cat]

Change the "maybe" to "definitely" and replace the ??? with !!!

and you're golden

[word321]

I also liked 210
and henceforth, 212 for thinking the same way

[Green Crayons]

can you tell me why do those posts you linked in 125 ping you?

didn't like the 180 on rvs to serious in a fingersnap on page 2 or 3 (whatever it was), plus those specific posts felt inorganic

[Green Crayons]

Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.

btw i would suspect scum to deny faking it

bc faking it for a reaction to a reaction test is lol

[Something_Smart]

Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.

good post

[Hoopla]

hoopla, I would like one essay on number analysis please.

in actuality, i'd probably prefer to wagon a player who hasn't been doubled/tripled up.

can you elaborate on why you'd prefer this when you can pls ty

it was late last night, so i didn't have enough time to finish collating the data.

one more set;

of the 196 slots across 14 games, 42 are scum, 154 are town. a given slot individually has a 21.42% chance of being scum.

how often does each slot fall on a singularly chosen number? a double, a triple etc.

singleton

mafia - 20 (29.85%)
town - 47

double

mafia - 12 (18.2%)
town - 54

triple

mafia - 6 (15.38%)
town - 33

quadruple

mafia - 1 (12.5%)
town - 7

quintuple

mafia - 1 (10%)
town - 9

sextuple

mafia - 0 (0%)
town - 6

[Hoopla]

to me, the frequency with which scum land on singular numbers is the most influential data point... if we're to look at the numbers.

in games gone past, i have probably relied on them more than necessary at the expense of scumhunting. i intend to use them as a guide this game, rather than an out and out solution - because it isn't that. we can't just rely on numbers. but they are a good framework to help visualise where scum are expected to be, and can help guide wagon choices.

as the game progresses i expect actual suspicions to arise more naturally, but the distribution of scum in the top half of the draft, as well as in the single numbers is too big to ignore on day 1, which is the lowest information phase.

Am I gonna have to bring up the

duck

dragon

elephant in the room regarding Hoopla's plan?

The people toward the top of the list are more likely to have PR's. And, uh, PR's are how you win games.

you win games by executing scum. allowing scum vigs/PGO's/blockers to roam free because they

might

be a town PR is a recipe for settling for a low% execution.

[Hoopla]

an example of how we should use number analysis;

- gypyx is 11th in the draft (a low frequency slot for scum)
- he also chose 11 (a low frequency selection for scum)
- he is also on a doubled up number (an average frequency outcome for scum)

i'd want to be quite confident gypyx is much more likely scum than random if we're to wagon there.

[Hoopla]

in the mean time;

VOTE: something_smart

[Something_Smart]

you win games by executing scum. allowing scum vigs/PGO's/blockers to roam free because they might be a town PR is a recipe for settling for a low% execution.

Sure, but PR's exist to help with that by identifying scum, clearing players, earning extra mis-executions, and keeping important players alive. Killing town PR's because they have a slightly higher chance of being scum isn't necessarily going to benefit us overall.

[Something_Smart]

in the mean time;

VOTE: something_smart

Just because I disagree with you?

[Something_Smart]

Also, italicizing

might

is pretty disingenuous. According to your stats DrDolittle for instance has a 30% chance of being mafia. That puts him at a 70% chance of being a town PR, and probably a strong one as well.