Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[the worst]

I already responded. Twice.

well, one and a half.
sorry, I was working and when I iso'd you I just saw the second vote on ico and assumed it was the original one.

[the worst]

Okay, I'm starting to read

This is going to be one of those games that hits page 80 halfway through day 1 and I never quite catch up, isn't it

Page 80? this isn't a micro, no

[the worst]

literally just crossing our fingers and following hoopla's plan turns this from mafia into a badly designed logic puzzle so like please use the statistics but please just kill scum while flipping off probability.

[Green Crayons]

literally just crossing our fingers and following hoopla's plan turns this from mafia into a badly designed logic puzzle

who wants to do this though?

[Green Crayons]

well, one and a half.

you say one and a half

and i say five times

so let's meet in the middle and say it was twice.

[Green Crayons]

literally just crossing our fingers and following hoopla's plan turns this from mafia into a badly designed logic puzzle

who wants to do this though?

FWIW i might be interpreting what you are interpreting to be the thread's interpretation of hoopla's plan incorrectly.

[Something_Smart]

trying to parse that makes my head spin but tw's characterization of Hoopla's plan is very unfair.

[the worst]

in fairness I thought it was zero. I really think one and a half is a fair compromise.

if anyone wants to do the logic puzzle thing I actually want to fight them.

pedit: oh I think your interpretation of Hoopla is on point. there's always someone who does some kind of stat analysis in an open this nuanced & frequently-run. Hoopla is like actually smart so will not be suggesting that we just blindly follow policy, merely that we allow policy to inform our play as appropriate. I'm just reaffirming.

[Hoopla]

Hey everyone! Quick question, are wolves normally able to talk about what numbers they want to pick like on other sites? Because if that's the case it's probably 1 max in each group.

i agree with the grumpy cat re: clover.

questions like these, especially from new-ish players are a pretty reliable towntells. most mafia don't think to fabricate questions like this - or at the very least, it takes a cheeky scumbag to work this angle.

that was probably the most alignment-relevant thing that has happened all game. points for grumpy cat for picking it up and correctly interpreting it.

[Hoopla]

i'm unsure what to make of the gypyx fake-hammer and fake-reaction fiasco.

when you have players acting in a disingenuous way in order to harvest reactions, you risk players responding in kind (which is what gypyx did).

so, now the question shifts from "was gypyx's reaction genuine?", to "was the decision to fake a reaction to a fake hammer town?", which is just too flimsy of a premise to really parse anything meaningful imo.

if pressed, my intuition leans town on gypyx because it's kind of overt and bombastic to respond to a fake hammer with an equally facetious reaction test.

[the worst]

ditto, better tell for Grayons than Gypyx tho

[DrDolittle]

I think Iama is very overreaching wrt SS

[DrDolittle]

I don't get the townread on Clover tbh., Could easily be faked for some cheap town cred. Someone said he played this in another forum? Is there any evidence of that

[DrDolittle]

SS for once hasn't sent me any scum pings which is very rare.

[DrDolittle]

Re stats. Numbers never lie but presentation and analysis does. What you get do with data is a condensation to a single statistic. How you choose to condense could be benignly wrong or maliously incorrect.

[DrDolittle]

hoopla, I would like one essay on number analysis please.

in actuality, i'd probably prefer to wagon a player who hasn't been doubled/tripled up.

can you elaborate on why you'd prefer this when you can pls ty

it was late last night, so i didn't have enough time to finish collating the data.

one more set;

of the 196 slots across 14 games, 42 are scum, 154 are town. a given slot individually has a 21.42% chance of being scum.

how often does each slot fall on a singularly chosen number? a double, a triple etc.

singleton

mafia - 20 (29.85%)
town - 47

double

mafia - 12 (18.2%)
town - 54

triple

mafia - 6 (15.38%)
town - 33

quadruple

mafia - 1 (12.5%)
town - 7

quintuple

mafia - 1 (10%)
town - 9

sextuple

mafia - 0 (0%)
town - 6

Like for example in this post. Hoopla could notice this is her scum PT as well and say guys let's both pick 5. I can use stats to defend us. Im largely uninterested in using these stats to figure out alignment, especially based on day 1

[DrDolittle]

I want gypyx to come in and give us a takeaway in what he got from the bombastic evaluation before making a read on the slot

[DrDolittle]

I have a very teeny scum read on tw but I'd rather not say what its due to and see it develop. No pressure duck

[the worst]

that's ok, don't feel the need to mention it all yet. i might wise up and start posting well. imagine that.

[DrDolittle]

Imagine that

Its good to be playing with u tho

[the worst]

yeah right back at you always a pleasure to bump into players i enjoy again.

[Green Crayons]

way too many good vibes rn

[the worst]

sorry; i'll obligatorily yell at the next person who enters the thread.

[Umlaut]

sorry; i'll obligatorily yell at the next person who enters the thread.

Hi!

[Something_Smart]

SS for once hasn't sent me any scum pings which is very rare.

lol