Newbie 2025 | Lilies | Game Over

[Casey]

Casey, can you help me understand what it is that you are looking for when you scum read someone? I remember you described yourself as a behavioral player.

I have a theory that you are good at picking up on tells in others behaviors, and that you scum read people who seem anxious and guarded, is this true?

I rely 100% on gut. If someone is meshing with me, I'm totally down to just TR them right away and never look back. I desperately look for posts that make me go "that person is town." I review ISOs to see if I can follow someone's mindset from start to finish. I look for crucial interactions and find ways to disprove buddies. I point out gross posts. I don't keep notes; I post all my thoughts.

And I post a lot. I can be loud. I kick every nest and goad every hornet. I have a habit of being the momma bird protecting the flock.

Mafia games are like temporary chat rooms where we kick out the people who aren't the coolest of the cool kids. I do my best not to be a bitch, though! I'm mostly chill. If I'm ever too rude, please call me out on it.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah I feel it, the behavior you just described is reflected consistently in your posts.

What I was speculating on in 798 and 799 was what sorts of behavior your gut picks up on.

[Frogsterking]

I'm trying to find common ground.

[Casey]

I am hesitantly walking into this.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

In post 759, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Frogsterking

Now I remember why I was scumreading Frogsterking.

Care to elaborate?

Originally, I started to scumread Frogsterking for his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill. Then, Casey made the following post.

Okay so look at these.

Welcome to the town Casey!

Welcome aboard, Casey.

Welcome to the game Casey.

Italiano and Rock welcome me to the game / aboard, but you specifically welcome me to the

town

.

The post added more fuel to my suspicions. I first questioned Frogsterking's obsession over what everyone thinks of the nightkill. Meanwhile, I reread some part of the thread and misinterpreted a post Frogsterking made. I prepared to make a post to question Frogsterking on the post and saved it as a draft. Frogsterking appeared to answer the question of why he was so obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill, so I dismissed it. I then posted the draft. After Frogsterking clarified the meaning of the post I misinterpreted, I actually didn't understand the clarification. However, while I started to make another post to further point out what was the problem with the post, I noticed that no such problem actually existed. Instead of questioning on an issue that was now evident to me was non-existent, I unvoted instead since I had no further reason to scumread him. Several hours later, I look at my spreadsheet with the list of all my reads thus far and the post(s) from which I deduced them. I noticed I listed Frogsterking's post 640 as my reason for scumreading him. Actually, when I made the post you quoted, I still thought I only remembered scumreading Frogsterking for post 640 and the post I misinterpreted. It is only while looking into the question I remember asking Frogsterking something that I didn't remember that I remembered my true reason for scumreading Frogsterking.

In conclusion, my current scumread on Frogsterking is over his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill, while my reason for scumreading Frogsterking when I made the post you quoted was for post 640 and my very first suspicions on Frogsterking was because of his obsession over the nightkill.

In post 758, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:

Spoiler:

Frogsterking, why do you seem the most obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill.

In the mafia format I have almost all of my experience in (livechat, roughly 5-20 minute days and 1-5 minute nights on average) I relied extensively on analyzing night kills to complement behavioral reads.

Part of the reason that method was useful to me was I understood how players of different levels approached their night choices in that format.

Things are different when players get a couple days to make their choice instead of a couple minutes and I'm not sure how much of what I know carries over to this format and I'm trying to learn quickly.

Actually, I just noticed that this answers the question "Why are you so interested in the nightkill?" and not the question I actually asked, which is "Why do you seem the most obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill?"

So that you don't get to pretend to not understand what I am trying to say, let me put it bluntly. Please answer the question (Why are you so obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill?)

I don't like the shade here where you assume that I intentionally misinterpreted your question, when you yourself just tripped over your own words and notes in the lengthy paragraph above trying to explain what exactly you're doing here. I'm not an expert on your thoughts so it's not necessary that I would pretend anything to misunderstand what you're saying. This inclusion in your case is unhelpful at best and scummy at worse.

The "obsession" angle looks like poor or made-up reasoning and is also unnecessary to the case. Analyzing the night kill is simply another means of finding the scum. You seem just as "obsessed" here as I do, you seem very over-reactive to the idea of analyzing the night kills, something that as a behavioral player I value more than the night kill analysis itself.

This is also my answer to your question, by the way: I did those things because analyzing the night kill and asking questions are both methods of scum hunting.

Your double-take going into this FoS looks strange as well. I'm tempted to give Casey town credit if Frederick flips scum either now or at a later date because it appears as though Frederick decided I would be his best push only after he read her most recent posts. I will elaborate on this in the next post.

The only way I can see Frederick being town here is if it's in his meta to FoS for night kill analysis as town or if it's a pre-emptive townie OMGUS because he feared I would push him after my long post #734 (which I was not planning.)

In case of the latter situation I could see an equal argument your play here is an example of a scummy OMGUS. At this point I would be the second townie you overreacted to in an OMGUS, the first being shelly, something which made me believe you might be an anti-town townie.

In case of the first situation of a TvT I'm imagining, where it's in your meta to FoS for night kills,

Frederick do you have any completed games on this site where you FoSed another player for night kill analysis and you were aligned with town?

I will unvote you if you can supply an example of this.

VOTE: Frederick

This also reminded me of something you said which is incongruent, Frederick:

In post 629, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:

Spoiler:

@Frederick: what do you think about the Mush kill?

I think nothing of it.

You mean you weren't pleased that the player who tunneled you all game was killed during the night? Not even a little bit? And you allegedly kept a spreadsheet of all of our tells yet you don't bother to make any notes whatsoever about the night kill? This looks like a lie to me. I think you wanted to kill the discussion on this topic because it was inconvenient to you.

This type of play on Frederick's part is exactly what I was referring to about letting the scum force plays in the part I bolded below. Frederick, your scumread looks like something you're trying to force into the game because night kill analysis ultimately is not a scum tell it's a method of scumhunting and the situation you're introducing it as a scum tell is convenient for you to avoid blame.

Spoiler:

I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels uncomfortable with the dynamics of Shelly, Redados and Italiano. Redados has, at least, modified his play after having been called out to something that could be considered more pro-town, but Shelly is hyper-focused on Redados and Italiano is hyper-focused on Shelly. This doesn't help anyone else make any decisions at all, and might very well end up with two mis-eliminations to satisfy the paranoia of these three so we can actually get down to business.

I have no intent of listing reads quite yet, but this is not good play for town from Shelly and Italiano. I think they should back up and focus attention on other people altogether for a while. Especially Italiano, who hasn't so much as sniffed in the direction of other players, as far as I can tell.

Now then...



Shelly, if town "tunnels" someone, scum don't need to say much to come across as town that's just late to the party. "Yeah, I'm honestly here on this wagon. I have nothing to add, everyone else has made my arguments for me. I think it's the right idea." Scum shouldn't be allowed to direct the conversation either, but if town gets stuck on "YES WE HAVE THE ANSWERS" scum doesn't need to do anything except not rock the boat too much.



Frogster, you have a dependent chain of events for "scum forcing interactions" being a good idea, whether you recognize the chain or not.
First, town has to town read most of town.
Second, town has to mostly not town read at least one scum.
Third, town has to be mostly coordinating rather than throwing suspicion at or questioning each other.
Only if all three things are true does scum have to try to steer the ship, so to speak. I'd like to point out that we can't get reads on enough of the players to fulfill the first chainlink yet, and we are ALL bickering too much for the third link to be fulfilled.

Letting scum force interaction at this stage is a TERRIBLE idea.

I'm really not a fan of how you're spinning my desire to be able to get reads on the majority of players. It's making something that's fairly pro-town into a vehicle for highly pro-scum play, and that is just not a good look at all on you, particularly with how town read I seem to be.

I've mentioned before: I tend to jump the gun, and I am aware of that tendency. So I'm just going to ask if anyone else feels like my words and intent might be getting twisted for hidden motives here. Because I have that feeling, I feel it in my bones, and I don't like it at all.

VOTE: Frogsterking

I always feel more comfortable having voted, and this feels like the right place to rest my vote for the time being.



I also want to bring up that MagikHorse has made himself one of my favorites with just the recently-passed flurry of posts. These are direct, cutting posts that aren't over-determined or stuck on irrelevancies. Good stuff for town, though I have yet to feel comfortable giving reads out.



And last for now, notes on why I'm avoiding giving a player overview or a reads list for so long.

Remember how I mentioned pattern-matching before?

I'm seeing patterns in all of the active users. Some I'm curious about, some I just plain don't like, all of them I want to avoid drawing too much attention to until I have reached a conclusion about the patterns I'm seeing.

If you've posted more than 6 times, I'm considering you in some way. I won't tell you how or for what until I'm good and ready, because that would give away the patterns and make it too easy to disrupt the picture I'm building. I'm going to sit on these and see what comes of my approach before I try giving reads. So you'll all have to wait a little while longer.

I think your dependency chain is an accurate example of the possible late game scenarios I'm visualizing in which town can still win in case there is little aid from prs. I would describe your dependency chain as a win condition following good early town play. I'd imagine you can see how a chain like that is unrealistic on D1 as you pointed out, but could materialize later in a 3-way or 5-way lylo situation as a result of a good D1.

I'm interested in hearing your conclusions about the player patterns and the reads list later and I agree they will be more impactful given some time. I believe this is another benefit of using the full 10 days.

I assure you there was no deliberate attempt to spin what you were saying and my motivation for paraphrasing was to express what I thought you were saying so you could confirm (or in this case deny) that there was a mutual understanding.

I suspect there is an issue with communication rather than underlying ideas about the game because I agree with most of the points you've been making. I suspect the issue is a linguistic one and we are based on different definitions of what letting scum force plays or interactions means. In my mind "forcing an interaction" or "forcing a play" is usually a bad move for the side doing it because it implies the play was unnatural or awkwardly timed (hence it had to be forced in) and will be generally less effective. A "forcing interaction" that is dominant and controls the choices the other side has available is not what I was suggesting we want to allow others to be doing.

The tunneling trio you pointed out is a solid example of what I'm referring to about forcing an interaction (not a forcing interaction.) If the scum team decides to play that way that's fine with me but if it's the town doing that then there will be problems not only today but in the endgame as well.

I believe that Redados, Shelly and Italiano will be receptive to moving forward and focusing on other players. I also believe that the incoming replacements are more likely to be an asset than a liability.

What did you mean by "The tunneling trio you pointed out is a solid example of what I'm referring to about forcing an interaction (not a forcing interaction.)"

(added spoiler so others don't have to scroll past the original quotes)

I meant that the trio of Redados, Italiano and shellyc came in with preconceived feelings about each other and were skewing the discussion toward their point of view.

I was contrasting the early actions of these three with some type of play where one or more players are able to dominate the game, force the other players to respond to them or limit the actions of the other players in some way. I didn't feel like this was what they were doing because I felt like I could read their discussion and then respond to it as I chose.

I remember at this point in time I thought (incorrectly) the conflict between Mush and I was that Mush interpreted my statements about letting mafia force plays and make mistakes as allowing other players to dominate the game, and I was attempting to clarify my point of view in ways I thought might make sense to her.

Firstly, I wasn't assuming that you were intentionally misinterpreting my question. Instead, I was warning you to not further misinterpret the question.

Secondly, the "obsession" angle you are referring to doesn't even seem to be the reason I am scumreading you for. It is a misrepresentation of a part of the case, and there is no need for me to argue for something that I am not arguing about.

Thirdly, the "This is also the answer to your question" again, does not answer the question.

"Your double-take going into this FoS looks strange as well. I'm tempted to give Casey town credit if Frederick flips scum either now or at a later date because it appears as though Frederick decided I would be his best push only after he read her most recent posts. I will elaborate on this in the next post. The only way I can see Frederick being town here is if it's in his meta to FoS for night kill analysis as town or if it's a pre-emptive townie OMGUS because he feared I would push him after my long post #734 (which I was not planning.) In case of the latter situation I could see an equal argument your play here is an example of a scummy OMGUS. At this point I would be the second townie you overreacted to in an OMGUS, the first being shelly, something which made me believe you might be an anti-town townie. In case of the first situation of a TvT I'm imagining, where it's in your meta to FoS for night kills, Frederick do you have any completed games on this site where you FoSed another player for night kill analysis and you were aligned with town?
I will unvote you if you can supply an example of this."

No. I have attempted to clarify that I am not scumreading you over analysing nightkills, but you have failed to understand. I will repeat myself for the umpteenth time and will continue to do so. I am scumreading you for being concerned about what other players think of the nightkill. Also, even if I could provide evidence that I have scumread someone for it, the fact that you are basing your argument on something that is not true means that your argument is invalid.

"This also reminded me of something you said which is incongruent, Frederick:

@Frederick: what do you think about the Mush kill?

I think nothing of it.

You mean you weren't pleased that the player who tunneled you all game was killed during the night? Not even a little bit? And you allegedly kept a spreadsheet of all of our tells yet you don't bother to make any notes whatsoever about the night kill? This looks like a lie to me. I think you wanted to kill the discussion on this topic because it was inconvenient to you."
I don't analyse night kills. I simply don't. You can search every game I have ever played and I have never scumread anyone over a nightkill. I always suspect others for what they have posted instead of a nightkill that they may or may not have committed.

"This type of play on Frederick's part is exactly what I was referring to about letting the scum force plays in the part I bolded below. Frederick, your scumread looks like something you're trying to force into the game because night kill analysis ultimately is not a scum tell it's a method of scumhunting and the situation you're introducing it as a scum tell is convenient for you to avoid blame."

You have unwittingly just pointed out the actual problem I had in the post I thought was non-existent. Why were you thinking that "the trio of Redados, Italiano and shellyc came in with preconceived feelings about each other and were skewing the discussion toward their point of view." was a forced interaction? Also, I suggest that you acknowledge that what you believe is going on in my head is not evidence of my alignment, just as I am fully aware that whatever I think is going on in your head is not evidence. It does warrant suspicion, however.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

The scumread isn't over your obsession of the night kill. It is over your obsession of what others think of the night kill.

Analyzing the night kill and asking questions are both valid ways of scumhunting. Asking everyone their opinion also does not qualify as an obsession. I used similar methods of scumhunting on D1 when I asked all of the players who their current choice in a daykill would be. Your case here is quite the stretch.

I'm not arguing that analysing the night kill and asking questions are not valid ways of scumhunting. I agree that asking everyone their opinion does not qualify as an obsession, so I will call it a concern from now on. Your asking of all the players who their current choice in a daykill would be does not seem related to asking all the players what they think of the nightkill.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

That actually lines up pretty well with what I have observed thus far.

UNVOTE:

That literally doesn't explain why you find me scummy?

The fact you're asking for an explanation instead of accusing me of being scummy (as though you're more worried that I cheated than if I really know if you're scum or not) is another tick in the scum direction from my point of view.

Not a fan of this.

By don't care I mean I don't care if I have to vote Rocknil or Lavaar, not that I don't care about the outcome of the game! I do want to win and I am town and I think either one of these is the best move.

My opinion of Frog is dropping each time he posts. This "I do want to win and I am town" phrasing is baffling.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Congratulations. You have made me suspicious.

Good vote.

I think Mush was killed to try and frame Frederick.

Has anyone even hypothesized this today?

I think Mush was killed to try and frame Frederick.

Has anyone even hypothesized this today?

Mush was out for Frederick's blood. If Frederick is on the scumteam they would probably need to kill Mush.

Oh look at that.

I'm feeling pretty confident that Redados, Italiano, and Lavar are town.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Now I remember why I was scumreading Frogsterking.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Now I remember why I was scumreading Frogsterking.

Care to elaborate?

Originally, I started to scumread Frogsterking for his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill. Then, Casey made the following post.

Okay so look at these.

Welcome to the town Casey!

Welcome aboard, Casey.

Welcome to the game Casey.

Italiano and Rock welcome me to the game / aboard, but you specifically welcome me to the

town

.

The post added more fuel to my suspicions. I first questioned Frogsterking's obsession over what everyone thinks of the nightkill. Meanwhile, I reread some part of the thread and misinterpreted a post Frogsterking made. I prepared to make a post to question Frogsterking on the post and saved it as a draft. Frogsterking appeared to answer the question of why he was so obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill, so I dismissed it. I then posted the draft. After Frogsterking clarified the meaning of the post I misinterpreted, I actually didn't understand the clarification. However, while I started to make another post to further point out what was the problem with the post, I noticed that no such problem actually existed. Instead of questioning on an issue that was now evident to me was non-existent, I unvoted instead since I had no further reason to scumread him. Several hours later, I look at my spreadsheet with the list of all my reads thus far and the post(s) from which I deduced them. I noticed I listed Frogsterking's post 640 as my reason for scumreading him. Actually, when I made the post you quoted, I still thought I only remembered scumreading Frogsterking for post 640 and the post I misinterpreted. It is only while looking into the question I remember asking Frogsterking something that I didn't remember that I remembered my true reason for scumreading Frogsterking.

In conclusion, my current scumread on Frogsterking is over his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill, while my reason for scumreading Frogsterking when I made the post you quoted was for post 640 and my very first suspicions on Frogsterking was because of his obsession over the nightkill.

This sequence of events is extremely scummy. You clearly "remember" why you were scumreading Frogsterking after you see that Casey FoSes Frogsterking. It looks as if Casey decided she FoSed someone else you would have refrained from pushing on me at all. The paragraph attempting to explain this away is confusing and appears contrived.

I also find it extremely unlikely someone detail-oriented enough to keep a spreadsheet of their notes on every player would have nothing to say about the night kill.

As it happens, Casey's FoS on you was what triggered me to check why I even had you as a scumread in the first place.

By the way, I keep a spreadsheet because I understand limitations in my memory. I don't detail every little thing in my spreadsheet as that would be just as time-consuming for me to wade through as the whole thread. Also, I don't have notes on every player. I have notes on a select few posts that brought me closer to a conclusion on someone's alignment. Actually, it is even in the paragraph explaining my scumread on you.

[Casey]

Secondly, the "obsession" angle you are referring to doesn't even seem to be the reason I am scumreading you for. It is a misrepresentation of a part of the case, and there is no need for me to argue for something that I am not arguing about.

This is what I was looking for. Frog's position didn't seem like the right one and Fred confirms my suspicions here.

[Redados]

@Mod, will there be an extension for Rocknil's replacement to catch up?

[Frogsterking]

Wow there is a lot to dig in here.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not really sure where to start.

[Redados]

We have a little over 24 hours left, so I think it's time to get our limpools together. I would prefer to lim Fredrick A Campbell or Rocknil today. Where is everyone else at?

[Frogsterking]

Okay, last try. I've had enormous difficulty formatting this post correctly.

[Frogsterking]

In post 759, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Frogsterking

Now I remember why I was scumreading Frogsterking.

Care to elaborate?

Originally, I started to scumread Frogsterking for his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill. Then, Casey made the following post.

Okay so look at these.

Welcome to the town Casey!

Welcome aboard, Casey.

Welcome to the game Casey.

Italiano and Rock welcome me to the game / aboard, but you specifically welcome me to the

town

.

The post added more fuel to my suspicions. I first questioned Frogsterking's obsession over what everyone thinks of the nightkill.

Meanwhile, I reread some part of the thread and misinterpreted a post Frogsterking made. I prepared to make a post to question Frogsterking on the post and saved it as a draft. Frogsterking appeared to answer the question of why he was so obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill, so I dismissed it. I then posted the draft. After Frogsterking clarified the meaning of the post I misinterpreted, I actually didn't understand the clarification. However, while I started to make another post to further point out what was the problem with the post, I noticed that no such problem actually existed. Instead of questioning on an issue that was now evident to me was non-existent, I unvoted instead since I had no further reason to scumread him. Several hours later, I look at my spreadsheet with the list of all my reads thus far and the post(s) from which I deduced them. I noticed I listed Frogsterking's post 640 as my reason for scumreading him. Actually, when I made the post you quoted, I still thought I only remembered scumreading Frogsterking for post 640 and the post I misinterpreted.

It is only while looking into the question I remember asking Frogsterking something that I didn't remember that I remembered my

true reason

for scumreading Frogsterking.

In conclusion, my current scumread on Frogsterking is over his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill, while my reason for scumreading Frogsterking when I made the post you quoted was for post 640 and my very first suspicions on Frogsterking was because of his obsession over the nightkill.

In post 758, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:

Spoiler:

Frogsterking, why do you seem the most obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill.

In the mafia format I have almost all of my experience in (livechat, roughly 5-20 minute days and 1-5 minute nights on average) I relied extensively on analyzing night kills to complement behavioral reads.

Part of the reason that method was useful to me was I understood how players of different levels approached their night choices in that format.

Things are different when players get a couple days to make their choice instead of a couple minutes and I'm not sure how much of what I know carries over to this format and I'm trying to learn quickly.

Actually, I just noticed that this answers the question "

Why are you so interested

in the nightkill?" and not the question I actually asked, which is "Why do you seem the most obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill?"

So that you don't get to pretend to not understand what I am trying to say, let me put it bluntly. Please answer the question (Why are you so obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill?)

I don't like the shade here where you assume that I intentionally misinterpreted your question, when you yourself just tripped over your own words and notes in the lengthy paragraph above trying to explain what exactly you're doing here. I'm not an expert on your thoughts so it's not necessary that I would pretend anything to misunderstand what you're saying. This inclusion in your case is unhelpful at best and scummy at worse.

The "obsession" angle looks like poor or made-up reasoning and is also unnecessary to the case. Analyzing the night kill is simply another means of finding the scum. You seem just as "obsessed" here as I do, you seem very over-reactive to the idea of analyzing the night kills, something that as a behavioral player I value more than the night kill analysis itself.

This is also my answer to your question, by the way: I did those things because analyzing the night kill and asking questions are both methods of scum hunting.

Your double-take going into this FoS looks strange as well. I'm tempted to give Casey town credit if Frederick flips scum either now or at a later date because it appears as though Frederick decided I would be his best push only after he read her most recent posts. I will elaborate on this in the next post.

The only way I can see Frederick being town here is if it's in his meta to FoS for night kill analysis as town or if it's a pre-emptive townie OMGUS because he feared I would push him after my long post #734 (which I was not planning.)

In case of the latter situation I could see an equal argument your play here is an example of a scummy OMGUS. At this point I would be the second townie you overreacted to in an OMGUS, the first being shelly, something which made me believe you might be an anti-town townie.

In case of the first situation of a TvT I'm imagining, where it's in your meta to FoS for night kills,

Frederick do you have any completed games on this site where you FoSed another player for night kill analysis and you were aligned with town?

I will unvote you if you can supply an example of this.

VOTE: Frederick

This also reminded me of something you said which is incongruent, Frederick:

In post 629, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:

Spoiler:

@Frederick: what do you think about the Mush kill?

I think nothing of it.

You mean you weren't pleased that the player who tunneled you all game was killed during the night? Not even a little bit? And you allegedly kept a spreadsheet of all of our tells yet you don't bother to make any notes whatsoever about the night kill? This looks like a lie to me. I think you wanted to kill the discussion on this topic because it was inconvenient to you.

This type of play on Frederick's part is exactly what I was referring to about letting the scum force plays in the part I bolded below. Frederick, your scumread looks like something you're trying to force into the game because night kill analysis ultimately is not a scum tell it's a method of scumhunting and the situation you're introducing it as a scum tell is convenient for you to avoid blame.

Spoiler:

I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels uncomfortable with the dynamics of Shelly, Redados and Italiano. Redados has, at least, modified his play after having been called out to something that could be considered more pro-town, but Shelly is hyper-focused on Redados and Italiano is hyper-focused on Shelly. This doesn't help anyone else make any decisions at all, and might very well end up with two mis-eliminations to satisfy the paranoia of these three so we can actually get down to business.

I have no intent of listing reads quite yet, but this is not good play for town from Shelly and Italiano. I think they should back up and focus attention on other people altogether for a while. Especially Italiano, who hasn't so much as sniffed in the direction of other players, as far as I can tell.

Now then...



Shelly, if town "tunnels" someone, scum don't need to say much to come across as town that's just late to the party. "Yeah, I'm honestly here on this wagon. I have nothing to add, everyone else has made my arguments for me. I think it's the right idea." Scum shouldn't be allowed to direct the conversation either, but if town gets stuck on "YES WE HAVE THE ANSWERS" scum doesn't need to do anything except not rock the boat too much.



Frogster, you have a dependent chain of events for "scum forcing interactions" being a good idea, whether you recognize the chain or not.
First, town has to town read most of town.
Second, town has to mostly not town read at least one scum.
Third, town has to be mostly coordinating rather than throwing suspicion at or questioning each other.
Only if all three things are true does scum have to try to steer the ship, so to speak. I'd like to point out that we can't get reads on enough of the players to fulfill the first chainlink yet, and we are ALL bickering too much for the third link to be fulfilled.

Letting scum force interaction at this stage is a TERRIBLE idea.

I'm really not a fan of how you're spinning my desire to be able to get reads on the majority of players. It's making something that's fairly pro-town into a vehicle for highly pro-scum play, and that is just not a good look at all on you, particularly with how town read I seem to be.

I've mentioned before: I tend to jump the gun, and I am aware of that tendency. So I'm just going to ask if anyone else feels like my words and intent might be getting twisted for hidden motives here. Because I have that feeling, I feel it in my bones, and I don't like it at all.

VOTE: Frogsterking

I always feel more comfortable having voted, and this feels like the right place to rest my vote for the time being.



I also want to bring up that MagikHorse has made himself one of my favorites with just the recently-passed flurry of posts. These are direct, cutting posts that aren't over-determined or stuck on irrelevancies. Good stuff for town, though I have yet to feel comfortable giving reads out.



And last for now, notes on why I'm avoiding giving a player overview or a reads list for so long.

Remember how I mentioned pattern-matching before?

I'm seeing patterns in all of the active users. Some I'm curious about, some I just plain don't like, all of them I want to avoid drawing too much attention to until I have reached a conclusion about the patterns I'm seeing.

If you've posted more than 6 times, I'm considering you in some way. I won't tell you how or for what until I'm good and ready, because that would give away the patterns and make it too easy to disrupt the picture I'm building. I'm going to sit on these and see what comes of my approach before I try giving reads. So you'll all have to wait a little while longer.

I think your dependency chain is an accurate example of the possible late game scenarios I'm visualizing in which town can still win in case there is little aid from prs. I would describe your dependency chain as a win condition following good early town play. I'd imagine you can see how a chain like that is unrealistic on D1 as you pointed out, but could materialize later in a 3-way or 5-way lylo situation as a result of a good D1.

I'm interested in hearing your conclusions about the player patterns and the reads list later and I agree they will be more impactful given some time. I believe this is another benefit of using the full 10 days.

I assure you there was no deliberate attempt to spin what you were saying and my motivation for paraphrasing was to express what I thought you were saying so you could confirm (or in this case deny) that there was a mutual understanding.

I suspect there is an issue with communication rather than underlying ideas about the game because I agree with most of the points you've been making. I suspect the issue is a linguistic one and we are based on different definitions of what letting scum force plays or interactions means. In my mind "forcing an interaction" or "forcing a play" is usually a bad move for the side doing it because it implies the play was unnatural or awkwardly timed (hence it had to be forced in) and will be generally less effective. A "forcing interaction" that is dominant and controls the choices the other side has available is not what I was suggesting we want to allow others to be doing.

The tunneling trio you pointed out is a solid example of what I'm referring to about forcing an interaction (not a forcing interaction.) If the scum team decides to play that way that's fine with me but if it's the town doing that then there will be problems not only today but in the endgame as well.

I believe that Redados, Shelly and Italiano will be receptive to moving forward and focusing on other players. I also believe that the incoming replacements are more likely to be an asset than a liability.

What did you mean by "The tunneling trio you pointed out is a solid example of what I'm referring to about forcing an interaction (not a forcing interaction.)"

(added spoiler so others don't have to scroll past the original quotes)

I meant that the trio of Redados, Italiano and shellyc came in with preconceived feelings about each other and were skewing the discussion toward their point of view.

I was contrasting the early actions of these three with some type of play where one or more players are able to dominate the game, force the other players to respond to them or limit the actions of the other players in some way. I didn't feel like this was what they were doing because I felt like I could read their discussion and then respond to it as I chose.

I remember at this point in time I thought (incorrectly) the conflict between Mush and I was that Mush interpreted my statements about letting mafia force plays and make mistakes as allowing other players to dominate the game, and I was attempting to clarify my point of view in ways I thought might make sense to her.

Firstly,

I wasn't assuming that you were intentionally misinterpreting

my question. Instead,

I was warning you to not further misinterpret

the question.

Secondly, the "obsession" angle you are referring to doesn't even seem to be

the reason

I am scumreading you for. It is a misrepresentation of a part of the case, and there is no need for me to argue for something that I am not arguing about.

Thirdly, the "This is also the answer to your question" again, does not answer the question.

"Your double-take going into this FoS looks strange as well. I'm tempted to give Casey town credit if Frederick flips scum either now or at a later date because it appears as though Frederick decided I would be his best push only after he read her most recent posts. I will elaborate on this in the next post. The only way I can see Frederick being town here is if it's in his meta to FoS for night kill analysis as town or if it's a pre-emptive townie OMGUS because he feared I would push him after my long post #734 (which I was not planning.) In case of the latter situation I could see an equal argument your play here is an example of a scummy OMGUS. At this point I would be the second townie you overreacted to in an OMGUS, the first being shelly, something which made me believe you might be an anti-town townie. In case of the first situation of a TvT I'm imagining, where it's in your meta to FoS for night kills, Frederick do you have any completed games on this site where you FoSed another player for night kill analysis and you were aligned with town?
I will unvote you if you can supply an example of this."

No. I have attempted to clarify that I am not scumreading you over analysing nightkills, but you have failed to understand. I will repeat myself for the umpteenth time and will continue to do so. I am scumreading you for being concerned about what other players think of the nightkill. Also, even if I could provide evidence that I have scumread someone for it, the fact that you are basing your argument on something that is not true means that your argument is invalid.

"This also reminded me of something you said which is incongruent, Frederick:

@Frederick: what do you think about the Mush kill?

I think nothing of it.

You mean you weren't pleased that the player who tunneled you all game was killed during the night? Not even a little bit? And you allegedly kept a spreadsheet of all of our tells yet you don't bother to make any notes whatsoever about the night kill? This looks like a lie to me. I think you wanted to kill the discussion on this topic because it was inconvenient to you."
I don't analyse night kills. I simply don't. You can search every game I have ever played and I have never scumread anyone over a nightkill. I always suspect others for what they have posted instead of a nightkill that they may or may not have committed.

"This type of play on Frederick's part is exactly what I was referring to about letting the scum force plays in the part I bolded below. Frederick, your scumread looks like something you're trying to force into the game because night kill analysis ultimately is not a scum tell it's a method of scumhunting and the situation you're introducing it as a scum tell is convenient for you to avoid blame."

You have unwittingly just pointed out the actual problem I had in the post I thought was non-existent. Why were you thinking that "the trio of Redados, Italiano and shellyc came in with preconceived feelings about each other and were skewing the discussion toward their point of view." was a forced interaction?

Also, I suggest that you acknowledge that what you believe is going on in my head is not evidence of my alignment, just as I am fully aware that whatever I think is going on in your head is not evidence. It does warrant suspicion, however.

The scumread isn't over your obsession of the night kill. It is over your obsession of what others think of the night kill.

Analyzing the night kill and asking questions are both valid ways of scumhunting. Asking everyone their opinion also does not qualify as an obsession. I used similar methods of scumhunting on D1 when I asked all of the players who their current choice in a daykill would be. Your case here is quite the stretch.

I'm not arguing that analysing the night kill and asking questions are not valid ways of scumhunting. I agree that asking everyone their opinion does not qualify as an obsession, so I will call it a concern from now on. Your asking of all the players who their current choice in a daykill would be does not seem related to asking all the players what they think of the nightkill.

That actually lines up pretty well with what I have observed thus far.

UNVOTE:

That literally doesn't explain why you find me scummy?

The fact you're asking for an explanation instead of accusing me of being scummy (as though you're more worried that I cheated than if I really know if you're scum or not) is another tick in the scum direction from my point of view.

Not a fan of this.

By don't care I mean I don't care if I have to vote Rocknil or Lavaar, not that I don't care about the outcome of the game! I do want to win and I am town and I think either one of these is the best move.

My opinion of Frog is dropping each time he posts. This "I do want to win and I am town" phrasing is baffling.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Congratulations. You have made me suspicious.

Good vote.

I think Mush was killed to try and frame Frederick.

Has anyone even hypothesized this today?

I think Mush was killed to try and frame Frederick.

Has anyone even hypothesized this today?

Mush was out for Frederick's blood. If Frederick is on the scumteam they would probably need to kill Mush.

Oh look at that.

I'm feeling pretty confident that Redados, Italiano, and Lavar are town.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Now I remember why I was scumreading Frogsterking.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Now

I remember why I was scumreading Frogsterking.

Care to elaborate?

Originally, I started to scumread Frogsterking for his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill. Then, Casey made the following post.

Okay so look at these.

Welcome to the town Casey!

Welcome aboard, Casey.

Welcome to the game Casey.

Italiano and Rock welcome me to the game / aboard, but you specifically welcome me to the

town

.

The post added more fuel to my suspicions. I first questioned Frogsterking's obsession over what everyone thinks of the nightkill.

Meanwhile, I reread some part of the thread and misinterpreted a post Frogsterking made. I prepared to make a post to question Frogsterking on the post and saved it as a draft. Frogsterking appeared to answer the question of why he was so obsessed over what everyone thinks of the nightkill, so I dismissed it. I then posted the draft. After Frogsterking clarified the meaning of the post I misinterpreted, I actually didn't understand the clarification. However, while I started to make another post to further point out what was the problem with the post, I noticed that no such problem actually existed. Instead of questioning on an issue that was now evident to me was non-existent, I unvoted instead since I had no further reason to scumread him. Several hours later, I look at my spreadsheet with the list of all my reads thus far and the post(s) from which I deduced them. I noticed I listed Frogsterking's post 640 as my reason for scumreading him. Actually, when I made the post you quoted, I still thought I only remembered scumreading Frogsterking for post 640 and the post I misinterpreted.

It is only while looking into the question I remember asking Frogsterking something that I didn't remember that I remembered my

true reason

for scumreading Frogsterking.

In conclusion, my current scumread on Frogsterking is over his obsession of what everyone thinks of the nightkill, while my reason for scumreading Frogsterking when I made the post you quoted was for post 640 and my very first suspicions on Frogsterking was because of his obsession over the nightkill.

This sequence of events is extremely scummy. You clearly "remember" why you were scumreading Frogsterking after you see that Casey FoSes Frogsterking. It looks as if Casey decided she FoSed someone else you would have refrained from pushing on me at all. The paragraph attempting to explain this away is confusing and appears contrived.

I also find it extremely unlikely someone detail-oriented enough to keep a spreadsheet of their notes on every player would have nothing to say about the night kill.

As it happens,

Casey's FoS on you was what triggered me

to check why I even had you as a scumread in the first place.

By the way,

I keep a spreadsheet

because I understand limitations in my memory.

I don't detail every little thing

in my spreadsheet as that would be just as time-consuming for me to wade through as the whole thread. Also,

I don't have notes on every player

.

I have notes on

a select few posts

that brought me closer to a conclusion on someone's alignment. Actually, it is even in the paragraph explaining my scumread on you.

[Nahdia]

@Mod, will there be an extension for Rocknil's replacement to catch up?

I'll pause the deadline at 24 hours and resume when our game is full and active.

Prodding LavarManos.

[Frogsterking]

@Mod, will there be an extension for Rocknil's replacement to catch up?

I'll pause the deadline at 24 hours and resume when our game is full and active.

Prodding LavarManos.

Phew.

We have a little over 24 hours left, so I think it's time to get our limpools together. I would prefer to lim Fredrick A Campbell or Rocknil today. Where is everyone else at?

I believe it's critically important to hammer Frederick today because his plan is to bandwagon me off of Casey's vote who is town. I outlined my theory of this in 813.

If my theory is correct then Frederick believed now was the best time to force a play. He would only need to persuade one more townie to join the bandwagon after Casey's vote; Italiano who scum reads neither Frederick nor I or Lavar who I accused of being scum earlier today. Pretty solid odds for a scum in this setup.

I'm especially weary of Frederick's timing around the mod's announcement of a replacement of Rocknil and you and I's brief discussion of the pros and cons of a policy lynch.

If a) Rocknil is scum who voted Frederick at the beginning of the day with Frederick's guidance, creating distance and giving Rocknil the option of bussing or changing his vote later, now is an opportunity for the replacement to appear, "unvote while he rereads", and then hop on my bandwagon "for x reason."

If b) Even worse Rocknil is town, then policy lynching Rocknil will enable Frederick a cross with me on lylo day where he and his partner can vote me and only one townie is needed to be persuaded to vote me to win the game (which he believes could be Casey.)

I have two more things to add in follow up posts.

[Frogsterking]

Who is on right now

The deadline is coming and it looks like it’s getting very close to a no elimination.

Italiano, I'm on. Want to switch to Fredrick A Campbell so we dodge no elim?

I don't understand why he didn't hammer!!

We are out of time to discuss and Fredrick should know that he is the lim target if we don't lim Shelly.
LavarManos, *I* think that you should vote Shelly. But you should vote for Shelly or Fredrick at the very least. No elimination is bad for the town and not an option at this point.

You have to move your vote off MagikHorse now cause it's not doing anything there.

That was pretty sloppy play on Fredrick's part. Pretty sloppy.

Italiano, I'm on. Want to switch to Fredrick A Campbell so we dodge no elim?

Sorry Redados, I went to go drop off my sister at work and was gonna come back and do so. I didn’t like how he didn’t vote when I asked him. He said “he didn’t see the point”. I think he may be the Day 2 target. I may have been wrong about him.

No need to apologize, we got the lim.

If one of you two are scum then this was very good acting.

[Frogsterking]

I feel honored
Sorry shellyc! I think rocknil's vote felt a little forced, so that's where I'm going to start my day. Frederick had some redeeming qualities.
VOTE: rocknil

I think he couldn't be around deadline so he wanted us to discuss more. Just my thought and he can give a better answer if I'm wrong.

I won't be around at the last hour before the deadline. Unless you guys are fine for a hammer in six hours or less than six hours before deadline, I can't place the hammer.

This seems to be his explanation.
Redados, do you have a better read on Italiano now?

I am still townreading Italiano and I still townread you, so I am thinking we can try to find the scumteam in the remaining pool of four players based on how they have interacted. I do not think rocknil is scum with Fredrick because there is no need to open up the day with a vote on his scumbuddy. I also do not like how rocknil chose to ignore my vote on him.

Assuming Italiano is town, we have that the possible scum teams are
rocknil-Fredrick
rocknil-Frogster
rocknil-Magik Horse
Fredrick-Frogster
Fredrick-Magik Horse
Frogester-Magik Horse
I have already explained why I don't think rocknil and Fredrick are aligned, so I will be looking at the remaining 5 hypothetical teams. This assumes that Italiano is town which is dangerous, but I am still believing in it right now.

Assuming Italiano is town, we have that the possible scum teams are
rocknil-Fredrick
rocknil-Frogster
rocknil-Magik Horse
Fredrick-Frogster
Fredrick-Magik Horse
Frogester-Magik Horse
I have already explained why I don't think rocknil and Fredrick are aligned, so I will be looking at the remaining 5 hypothetical teams. This assumes that Italiano is town which is dangerous, but I am still believing in it right now.

Lavar, if the Rocknil replacement arrives, unvotes, rereads, and votes someone other than Frederick, would you still be eliminating the Rocknil-

Frederick

scum team from your list of possible pairs?

Why are you voting rocknil instead of me though and why do you think we are scum together? Do you really think I would choose to attack him, but have him completely ignore my presence?

Answer my question

That literally doesn't explain why you find me scummy?

Watergun missed!

I think most newbies queued up for this game because they wanted to find scum

This is fair.

your slot replaced through until the most competitive personality joined (you).

Don't you think shellyc was more competitive? Also, why do you think that is alignment indicative?

To be more specific I don't think either Frederick or Magik would have killed Mush if they were scum I think both would have killed Redados and between the newbie slots alone you're a lot more likely even though you and the other replacement seemed townie in your initial posts.

I don't follow this at all. MUSH suspected you, Fredrick, and rocknil to some extent, so why are you saying they wouldn't have incentive to kill her and instead kill Redados? This seems like quite a stretch, and you may even trying to be

intentionally

twisting the narrative. I do not know yet.

The fact you're asking for an explanation instead of accusing me of being scummy (as though you're more worried that I cheated than if I really know if you're scum or not) is another tick in the scum direction from my point of view.

I'm trying to see your thought process to see if how you arrived at this rocknil/me scumteam is a reasonable vs malicious.

I also think you were most active at the beginning of the daystart because you were the one to hammer the night action.

I'm speculating here that the frustration and contempt come from the combination of Lavar's pride in being townread by the other players and the fact that I'm voting him correctly but for completely the wrong reasons. That's pure speculation though because what everyone does around this hammer and D3 will be much more AI IMO.

Right now I have in order from most to least likely:

Very likely: Fred-Lavar, Fred Rocknil

Very unlikely: Fred-Italiano, Fred-Red, Fred-Casey

[Frogsterking]

Okay, I have a third and final follow up to my posts 813 and 815.

In Casey's 745 and Frederick's 753 from which I'm drawing my conclusions about what would otherwise in my opinion be EXTREMELY erratic play from town!Frederick's point of view, Casey also states for the first time that now, unlike earlier, she

townreads

Lavar. This means that scum!Frederick's play is substantially less risky in a Lavar-Frederick world because should he fail to get me hammered today and get himself hammered instead, Lavar can night kill me, policy-lynch Rocknil, and then enter a three-way lylo where at least one if not two town players have him as a townread.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why is this play erratic?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

The scumread isn't over your obsession of the night kill. It is over your obsession of what others think of the night kill.

So he shouldn’t ask what people think about what's going in the game? This is a weird statement.

The issue isn't that he asked. The issue is what I think his intention of asking was, which was to ascertain if it was necessary to nudge everyone towards the conclusion intended by him to be drawn from the nightkill.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Wow there is a lot to dig in here.

By the way, this is exactly how I felt after you made those series of long posts. I just dissected everything bit by bit, post by post.

[Frogsterking]

Wow there is a lot to dig in here.

By the way, this is exactly how I felt after you made those series of long posts. I just dissected everything bit by bit, post by post.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have a theory that you are good at picking up on tells in others behaviors, and that you scum read people who seem anxious and guarded, is this true?

Since this was addressed to Casey, who is only scumreading you, this post seems to suggest that you are anxious and guarded. Also, if you are not scum, why do you consider Casey good at picking up on tells in other's behaviors. Shouldn't it be the opposite?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

@Mod, will there be an extension for Rocknil's replacement to catch up?

I'll pause the deadline at 24 hours and resume when our game is full and active.

Prodding LavarManos.

Phew.

We have a little over 24 hours left, so I think it's time to get our limpools together. I would prefer to lim Fredrick A Campbell or Rocknil today. Where is everyone else at?

I believe it's critically important to hammer Frederick today because his plan is to bandwagon me off of Casey's vote who is town. I outlined my theory of this in 813.

If my theory is correct then Frederick believed now was the best time to force a play. He would only need to persuade one more townie to join the bandwagon after Casey's vote; Italiano who scum reads neither Frederick nor I or Lavar who I accused of being scum earlier today. Pretty solid odds for a scum in this setup.

I'm especially weary of Frederick's timing around the mod's announcement of a replacement of Rocknil and you and I's brief discussion of the pros and cons of a policy lynch.

If a) Rocknil is scum who voted Frederick at the beginning of the day with Frederick's guidance, creating distance and giving Rocknil the option of bussing or changing his vote later, now is an opportunity for the replacement to appear, "unvote while he rereads", and then hop on my bandwagon "for x reason."

If b) Even worse Rocknil is town, then policy lynching Rocknil will enable Frederick a cross with me on lylo day where he and his partner can vote me and only one townie is needed to be persuaded to vote me to win the game (which he believes could be Casey.)

I have two more things to add in follow up posts.

I don't see such a thing in post 813.