Newbie 2023 - Hedgehogs - Day 3

[Andresvmb]

So are you positing a bulge Shelly team Andre? Or a me bulge team where we don’t just meta defend each other the whole game.

Or a me Shelly team?

I think shellyc / The Bulge is likely, yes. I think The Bulge having you as Town most if not the entire game, and you having them as Scum, is a smart tactic as a Team as well, and a decent alternative. I have no idea why the worst as Scum would ever bother to TR me here. I mean, The Bulge always struck me as Scummy, and you as Towny (and it does seem like most players agreed), so you guys have certainly distanced properly, if anything.

I have conflicting thoughts about you notscience, because I ISO'ed you, and frankly I couldn't square your votes with your posts, though I did not read a single post from you that I thought came from a Scummy mindset. I think you have been somewhat disinterested, but I also know that you are a good player, so these conclusions from you about me just don't square with that view.

[Andresvmb]

It's late where I am, but I would feel bad if I did not at least give this game on this last day a decent shot, so let me re-read, and I'll come back with some more concrete thoughts.

[the worst]

Spoiler:

Andres, well, seems too scummy to be scum, with the exception of being really agressive like a how I think a VT should be, and not posting as much, even with an ATE like you said. Since he is experienced, if he is scum, then he is acting like scum to get away with being scum, do you think the other newbies would WIFOM like that? I'd think not; most newbies would probably call him out on being scummy and wagon him with newbie majority; that gambit is too risky for anyone but a VT (I also did something similar as a town role) in a newbie game. So therefore, he is probably town.

I should add the caveat that while experienced, Andres' towngame is quite a lot stronger than his scumgame. He is liable to make "scummy" posts as scum and while I'm not sure his absence is directly alignment indicative, I think there's quite a ridge between his real thought processes, and the thought processes he takes as scum.

Sorry if this feels kind of contrary/defeatist; the point you made about someone self-aware trying not to come across as scummy only applies to players who have fairly strong scumgames and can basically make a flash decision on how they want to be perceived. To turn the table back on you, does this information make you reconsider your read on him?

(As an aside btw, please don't try to talk about reads on players as "likely vanilla" or "likely power role"; this is very much a ~teaching moment~ if Andres has already claimed but if he *hadn't* then those types of reads may help scum shorten their list of potential town power roles)

That's fine. I'm gonna call an Andres/JOYED team so we can all read this and laugh postgame if I'm right.

I'm not sure if I'd outright call his scumgame "weak", but it sounds like you've got roughly the right idea of what I was trying to explain, yeah. Do you think I'm lying and Andres is town? Could you explain a bit on why you townread him prior to it being pointed out that he's experienced?

Did you drop your scumread on Bella or on me? if so why/why not etc.

Also why would scum Andres claim VT. That seems like a huge mistake in my eyes if he was scum sitting at 1 vote from death AND shelly said they were waiting to hammer them until we got a bella replacement but thought andres was scum too. Assuming they are self aware in that they are most likely going to get elimed, how would they not claim a PR there to lure out the counterclaim PR, so then their partner knows who to kill?
Unless ... they have a mafia rolecop and have already found the other PR.

this is an interesting theory point. i'm going to talk about it because it is kinda important, but if you think i'm speaking gibberish then just let me know and we can pick this up after the game.

this setup is what we call a "semi-open" game. there's a predefined number of players who can be town power roles (1-2) and a predefined number of players who can be truly be vanilla townies (4-5). so if we have more than 3 people in the TPR pool, we know for a fact that [1-2 of 3] players are scum. Under some circumstances, the players in the TPR pool are also confirmable as town just because of their role.

If we have too many claims in the VT pool, on the other hand, all we know that [1-2 of 5-8] are scum. so there is some dayplay utility in claiming a TPR to draw a counterclaim, but there is also a high utility in claiming VT to try to 'blend into' the larger pool of players.

so as a really rough rule of thumb:
- scum will claim TPR if they think they are going to die. they will do this to set their partner up well. this happens via killing the TPR and/or thinking that after they flip red, their partner is unlikely to be considered a partner.
- scum will claim VT if they think they can survive until endgame, because there is a higher number of viable mis-elims in the VT pool than in the TPR pool.

given Andres has claimed VT and then AtE'd to shift votes off himself, it strikes me as entirely possible that he thinks he can survive.

For the record I am withdrawing my andres/plusjoyed team suggestion.

Why are you withdrawing it without much happening after you suggested it?

I think a lot happened. I gather that Joyed has been townreading Andres for the bulk of the game. Yet when presented with an opportunity, he backed off on it. When I suggested that his reasoning for townreading Andres might be dubious, he backed off it and (despite me actively trying and failing to discern the reason for his actual read in the first place) his tact changed. Despite allegedly townreading Andres all game, he suddenly seemed to actually quite urgently want to shift his vote to Andres. And yet when I asked for an explanation on the scumread, all I got was posturing around who may/may not be an Andres partner.

I don't think Joyed's read on Andres is real, and I think Joyed was all too happy to shift his vote onto Andres. Partners (particularly newbies) tend to signal that their partner ~could be scum~ or even outright vote each other. But I think it takes a pretty uncommon scum mindset to actually defiantly shift your vote against the flow of your reads in order to E-1 your partner despite having townread them all day and then fail to explain why you're changing your mind and scumreading them.

There's just a lot about my exchange with Joyed which didn't feel like I was engaging with town, but also didn't feel like I was engaging with someone who was scum with the person they were townreading.

pedit: I'm like literally confused as to what you think is a contradiction. I'll be very surprised if that is the scumteam after my exchange with Joyed.

The worst, do you have any questions for me? I read NS / PlusJoy reading me as town and I'm curious how you think of this.

I'd like an explanation on the JOYED read and a bit on how you felt through our dialogue over the last few pages - read on Andres as well while we're at it?

like again JOYED strikes me as a complete newbie and like I just don't agree that they see a vector to really sloppily bus their partner there and then rather than explaining their read just move their vote and go to bed? I just think that's a bizarre conclusion to come to after following that exchange

The whole way through I was like "oh they're reversing their townread for no reason. they're about to vote Andres aren't they. ok get a read out of the-- oh..nope they voted Andres. ok get their Andres rea-- nope they're going to bed."

am I bad? I think this is a much stronger scum!JOYED tell than town!Andres indicator

[spoilers=]

AFK tracker

VOTES

Bellaphant - not science
notscience - the bulge
Clarity - Andrevmb
WaltertheDunce - clarity
Andrevmb - me

HAVE NOT VOTED YET:

happiJS
jankofan
the bulge

VOTE: happiJS

Probability estimations:

mafia + roles are most likely

happiJS
jankofan
the bulge

oh there is a second page already

Hi Ouroel, a couple things for you.

1) Please get an avatar, it makes it much easier to remember who someone is (the visual stimulus)

2) Please don't openly discuss in thread who you think PRs are. If you're town its giving scum more info and it makes sense as scum trying to garner reactions to get more info.

Anyways, why do you think all the people who haven't voted yet are scum? That seems like a stretch.

Is it typically this difficult for anything to happen in a Newbie game? I guess so.

Anyway, our best course of action is probably to vote whoever has the least amount of posts until we get enough content to really judge players. So, who has yet to post here?

VOTE: jankofan

VOTE: happiJS

Putting aside the PR-hunting elements, what do you gain from voting someone who isn't here? The mod's stated that they're being replaced, so it's not like they're actively lurking or anything. It's better to put your vote somewhere where it'll actually make an impact.

VOTE: Ouroel

Is it typically this difficult for anything to happen in a Newbie game? I guess so.

Anyway, our best course of action is probably to vote whoever has the least amount of posts until we get enough content to really judge players. So, who has yet to post here?

Well, a few players still aren't here. Content exponentially increases the more players we have. There's still plenty we can get started with now though.
(also you can use see who's missing from the activity overview in the bottom right, just below the page counter)

VOTE: jankofan

Interrupt Edit: See above, but now I lose my wagon whatever, I'm staying on anyway.

[/.spoiler] {fixed for post#1702}

@Andres

pls check back in

what like.. went through your head when you made your posts in the middle of this, if u remember?
it's like you're trying to engineer dramatic irony
you're here like "we really need interesting things to happen." while an elephant balancing on a rubber ball is floating past in the background

like did you not find ouroel's posting noteworthy at all

VOTE: Bellaphant

Just my early guess. I can’t see a lot of what’s in 272. Hence, my vote.

Can you be more specific?

VOTE: Bellaphant

Just my early guess. I can’t see a lot of what’s in 272. Hence, my vote.

Can you be more specific?

I was in my immediate next post. I certainly can’t say either way what your alignment is Nash and I have a hard time seeing how anyone can argue that you’re a strong TR. That’s what made me most skeptical.

this is a really interesting engagement
i don't really get the impression nash was interested in andres' answer
particularly given he'd already explained it
i'll w8 and see if i'm wrong

I ISO’ed Clarity really quickly. I had Clarity as Lean Scum at first but I feel bad about that read now. Clarity is a bit null to positive for me. The vote on me via process of elimination I can’t really object to (though I would be interested in them maybe expanding on what you think has been Towny from Bellaphant and The Bulge), and otherwise they seem to be trying to figure out the game.

rn tho I think I will let andres keep posting

yeah i vibe this x2
andres has probably given the most sincere read on clarity which anyone has for a while; i feel like there's some noncommittal townreads on her and some noncommittal scumreads on her and people are kinda just Moving Around her slot

also feel like the bulge is rolling downhill, i don't have a ~particularly strong~ read on him yet but his posting is getting a lot more like, fun/interesting as i go on.

@The Bulge you should keep posting. Why was I SR you again? Whatever it was I was probably wrong.

at a meta level this post is somewhat Unlikely to come from scum!andres mid brainspam catchup


oh hold on i'm semi-live commentating this post

Spoiler:

At this stage I think {Nash, Bellaphant} is where I want to focus my energy on.

yes good.

Nash’s posting seems too detached, and I’m not seeing any genuine interest to figure out anyone’s alignment.

yes nash literally pops up with strange Conclusions with no trajectory

Not that boredom can really give away anyone’s alignment - I did call the game a bland read.

cripplingly

But Nash sounds smart to me, right? Comments about how one player is “less likely than random” to be Partner’s with another player usually come from experienced players with some sway.

certainly, and

Yet I’m seeing no hard stances almost,

n

o

t

h

i

n

g

j

u

i

c

y

.

yes yes YES YES YES

There’s already a lot of players highlighting Nash’s agreeableness. I’m 100% with them. Being safe is what I expect Scum to be doing here. Give me a reason to TR Nash.

:partying_face:[/.spoiler] {fixed for post#1702}

ty for listening

UNVOTE: annoyingly, Andres doubling down makes more sense as town. Although if hia focus stays relatively narrow, I'll look at it again.

yeah this page is increasingly Good for andres.
i'm starting to see why people were kinda skethcy abt my slot

i think these posts are like... very illustrative of the fact i've spent more time sorting andres than anyone?
like to suggest we're scum together suggests i
- replace in on d2 & start messing with his pocket on JOYED for no reason
- force JOYED to evaluate whether his read on my scumbuddy who has pocketed him is actually correct
- hyperfocus on JOYED's read on andres rapidly shifting because hey Hard Defending Scumbuddies Who Are The Leading Wagon Is Fun
- wagons are tied on {

myself

/

andres

/

bulge

}. JOYED is offwagon and pocketed. rather than using my replacein wallpost clout to force a miselim onto Bulge (which would not have been easy), leaving JOYED (who literally looked exactly like a wolf) for f5...... i decide it's a good idea to basically scream at my partner's pocket until he's forced back into my partner's pocket, and then spent two pages driving a miselim on him to create a f5 where the miselim prospects are three transparently competent/experienced players.


alternative?
- i'm trying to sort andres.
- i was incorrect on nash/JOYED because they were both scummy.

[the worst]

2022 I hammered my buddy in 5p but was scumreading him bc it was obvious going in to the day he got clowned

it feels quite Unlikely that i'll read that game, i'm sorry.

[the worst]

on shelly/bulge since nobody wants to do this for me )))):

Spoiler:

Initial Impressions (I am not a scumhunting god; will revisit this)
...
Andresvmb - This slot is really scummy to me. They were the other wagon yesterday and IV was town. They were on the IV wagon. Their ISO doesn't look good at all.
...
The Bulge - I am null on this lad. Been a little bit lurking, also under the radar for most of the game. I want a closer look, but I think they are leaning town.

tonality around bulge is kinda stiff but it's probably more improtant that it's a nulltown read for effectively no reason.
andres similarly isn't really for any reason but is being positioned as a miselim.

Andres, I think Bulge is pushing you because yesterday you were the other leading wagon.

against: i'm not really sure a guilty scum mindset who feels anxious having a read on bulge answers questions for him.

My read on Bulge is continuedly null, a bit leaning scum imo. Being defensive and not inclining strongly either way is a scumtell to me. However they weren't on that IV wagon... I need a rethink on this slot. They are competent and I am sure this is within Bulge's scumrange.

nil trajectory & read has shifted down but still no pressure/urgency from shelly to actively sort bulge
competency/scumrange comments are very vague and don't address things bulge is Actually Doing

My lynchpool today is Bella/Bulge/Andres. Bell has a townie mindset to me. I am leaning NS town - they are being protown and actively scumhunting. I hope the Nash replacement gives me a better insight on the slot.

*quite unreadable.

Also I feel the scumteam appears within Andres/Bella/Bulge/Nash. You and NS are my pretty solid townreads. All depends if Nash's replacement displays town-ness.

this PoE is pretty unhelpeful in sorting shelly; it's kinda just consensus
the nash trajectory is kinda predictable as either alignment (resolves below with nash in her PoE)

Bulge I miss you what do you think of the replacement

Is this...

POCKETING

? NS, why do you keep directing questions at Bulge? I notice Bulge often does the same thing. NS and Bulge can you express a read of each other?

again not sure if shelly/bulge scumteam results in shelly calling out a pocket when bulge is (in this universe) transparently pocketing NS

But bulge just feels different. Even though I was scum there I would have genuinely townread him but I don’t feel that way here.

Hmmm so the Bulge read is based off gut feeling? Might read the game thread so I can do a bit of meta research myself.

this doesn't go anywhere.

interested to hear what, if anything, happened between these two posts

Me too. I asked about what happened there, and Andres hasn't replied.

These will probably be my only posts today - will not have internet access.

this interaction is not useful in sorting bulge.

mason claims are designed to be pointless in most setups no, that was a scum claim

What?! Bulge are you claiming scum with Bella? Are you claiming Neighbour? I have no idea what's happened to Bulge here

i think this reaction is either sincere or insincere and i have no opinion about which one it is.
if shelly is scum i think there's been a few points (likely here, and likely again wrt bell TPR status) where she's sort of gone down the "overt public manipulation" path. this could also be confused town who doesn't understand the shitpost. i'm not sure a partner struggles to make this post any more than someone unaligned.

i want this to be ai but it's not.

IMO I might put Bella back at E-1, still feeling scum on this slot I guess. Where is your claim Bella? Are Bulge / Bella claiming a pair of masons? I'm confused about the whole Bella / Bulge thing, and i don't understand why bulge would TR Bella.

shelly's interactions around the bella/bulge team read ultimately result in her suspecting & voting my slot, rather than evaluating bulge.

EBWOP (didn't put the vote): VOTE: Bellaphant E-1. Claim as soon as possible please.

forgot it was so soon. lol. there's the vote.
i'm neutral about whether the request for a claim is sincere or rolefishing.

Probably going to be my only check-in for today I guess. IMO PlusJoy's self vote looks geniunely like a town trying to bait scum. Right now I TR PlusJoy a bit, NS a bit, and Bell a lot.

I am not sure what to make of the bulge slot. They have been hard to read and I have no idea what the mason claim was.

Bella is gone I guess. They could be PR though, since they still haven't claimed. Still scumreading the slot.

Andres is a huge nullread to me, maybe a slight scumlean. Some of their posts look like they might have been posted from a townie mindset, but I'm still having wary thoughts about this slot.

If Bella flips red I think Bella / Bulge scumteam is most likely. #1068 states "Bulge is town"...

this... kind of makes sense as a point where she started to consider bulge might be going down.
again she is pushing /away/ from bulge, but is posturing the bella slot to look worse in the event bulge flips red.
this is quite likely to come from a scumbuddy who knows that they'll need to pull off a couple of miselims following their partner's red flip.

I'm fairly sure that was hammer. If that turns out to be town PR Andres is almost outed scum here. If that's red, I'm rethinking the reads on Andres and Bulge.

signalling that she'll reevaluate bulge; again, this doesn't happen.
also another count of posturing but i think pre-flip associatives are just A Thing shelly thinks about and i'd be very surprised if they're outright scum indicative atp

Back in town. We should finalise lynchpool - Bella eliminate would be cool and I'm fine with Andres or the Bulge as well.

I would say that Bell/notscience and The Bulge/Bellaphant are the potential Scum Teams. shellyc is always Town. And I don’t know what to make of plusJOYED, probably Town I guess.

I agree that Bell has been sheeping NS - Bell pivoted towards the Bulge when NS suspected them. Bell seems townie to me though. Is NS trying to pocket Bell?

The Bulge has been defending Bella and I'm not sure scum!Bulge would do that when many players have sussed the Bella slot.

this is more posting ~around~ bulge without ever quite taking the plunge and actually trying to sort him
the softclear on bulge for hard defending scum!bella because other players are scumreading is pretty underwhelming

First post; it's LimLo. How PlusJoy flipped town is still a mystery to me.

RIP Bell so we know now the setup is rolecop + goon and tracker + doctor

I stand by my TR on NS. I still TR the worst slightly for that town mindset from that readthrough.

My most likely solve here is the bulge / andres.

bulge remains in the solve & in the PoE but is still not pressed or sorted.

tl;dr:
- shelly ~talks around~ bulge a whole lot and remains null on him for a long time but never actually makes a quantifiable effort to sort him.
- bulge remains in her PoE consistently in the lategame, but she seems to be putting her effort into ~sorting slots around~ bulge rather than like, actually correcting her own read.
- there is some evidence of postruing but i'm not convinced it's ai.

past shelly=>bulge associatives:
- during d2 she maintained pressure against myself and kept andres in the spotlight; regardless of what happened & despite her nullread/discomfort towards bulge, she never showed any sign of actually being interested in his elim.
- following my replace in she made it priority #1 to pressure me into producing content. i actually think this was a little over-the-top, which is why i responded in kind. despite not being able to get a firm read on bulge she has never felt compelled to apply that level of pressure to him.
- when i Did My Thing and dropped my townies all over the place while townreading andres, rather than evaluating Bulge (who she has consistently nullread and who was an existing wagon) she yeeted her vote onto JOYED and started posturing around what we should do following his flip.

i'm not totally vehemently sold on this and want some feedback because i'm finding it very hard to get like, a mindset profile on shelly as either alignment this game.

as an aside she bussed her partner d1 in her other game which was probably sensible but there is very little meta of associatives.
if anything maybe she would have intuited that bussing bulge on d2 was a better play? i'm not really sure this occurs to scum as a good idea given the NS deep pocket

[the worst]

@andres/NS i really need you two to read this slowly and objectively and tell me how you weigh these tells to & against. i'm... apprehensive, but i don't think shelly is all that likely to be scum with either of you. so if i'm wrong i think there's a very high chance that she's town.

[the worst]

i suppose shelly and bulge are welcome to read it too but i'm unlikely to take them all that seriously

[shellyc]

OK so you're saying that I talk around bulge a whole lot but am not interested in sorting them. This could apply to you not sorting me in your solve.

If you wish I can spend the afternoon scumcasing them. I will scumcase them if someone says "oh bulge is def a townie"

[the worst]

oh bulge is def a townie

[shellyc]

as an aside she bussed her partner d1 in her other game which was probably sensible but there is very little meta of associatives.

I bussed them slightly because they were half lurking. When deadline came about a lot of the thread sussed me and my partner so the only option was to counterwagon my partner

[shellyc]

oh bulge is def a townie

Thank you for giving me something to do this afternoon.

[the worst]

OK so you're saying that I talk around bulge a whole lot but am not interested in sorting them. This could apply to you not sorting me in your solve.

sure, that's fair. i think we're an improbable team for other reasons, and i don't think we're avoiding each other to take lengths to keep townies in the spotlight. we're very front-and-centre in this game.

pedit: sure, that's fair; you didn't lolbus them straight out the gate, you picked the correct moment to bus them.
that's mostly valuable for the purposes of "we don't have lategame shelly partner meta".

[the worst]

So are you positing a bulge Shelly team Andre? Or a me bulge team where we don’t just meta defend each other the whole game.

Or a me Shelly team?

I think shellyc / The Bulge is likely, yes. I think The Bulge having you as Town most if not the entire game, and you having them as Scum, is a smart tactic as a Team as well, and a decent alternative. I have no idea why the worst as Scum would ever bother to TR me here. I mean, The Bulge always struck me as Scummy, and you as Towny (and it does seem like most players agreed), so you guys have certainly distanced properly, if anything.

I have conflicting thoughts about you notscience, because I ISO'ed you, and frankly I couldn't square your votes with your posts, though I did not read a single post from you that I thought came from a Scummy mindset. I think you have been somewhat disinterested, but I also know that you are a good player, so these conclusions from you about me just don't square with that view.

i actually vibe really hard with this wrt reading NS. :/

[the worst]

@shelly when did you realise bell was the tpr?

i am a Fool
a FOOL

[the worst]

i'll talk abt the tpr tells postgame because they're really fun and you'll all know i saw them for reals then

[the worst]

I kinda didn't expect this game to empty out
please all say word things when you get a chance ): despite my serene disposition I don't feel confident about this game at all.

[shellyc]

I kinda didn't expect this game to empty out
please all say word things when you get a chance ): despite my serene disposition I don't feel confident about this game at all.

Was busy with work IRL, haven't cased The Bulge yet. Sorry

[the worst]

please don't feel bad for busyness, happens to us all! <3

make sure to play some marathons as well while the event is on I saw you pop up in the marathon chat in discord!

[shellyc]

make sure to play some marathons as well while the event is on I saw you pop up in the marathon chat in discord!

yeah im playing a marathon right now

[notscience]

It was Shelly who read 2022 not worst I was tired and blurred people

[notscience]

Just so we’re clear though, you’re positing the entire d1 last minute flash wagon was by town on town? This is directed at worst/Andres

[Andresvmb]

I fell asleep reading yesterday, though I intend to finish catching up today. I am working right now, but I did read your posts The Worst and I can see what you’re saying. In my (limited) experience, Scum tend to dance around their Partners until such time as they are forced to take a stance, either because the Town pressure is too great, or because of a mechanical outcome. Hard bussing happens, but is rare, and hard Town reading your Partners and buddying with them tends to happen with players that know each other well and trust each other to play a good game (but not much otherwise, unless a Scum player is able to correctly place themselves in the Town block). I would expect that hard bussing or hard TR your Partner would be a challenge in a newbie game, which is why I had the same thought that it would be difficult for The Bulge / notscience to be a Team, except for the fact that they know each other well and are friends (as stated by notscience). Instead, shellyc not really focusing on The Bulge (who has been under pressure most of the game), and leaving them as a potential Scum and in the POE, fits very well with what I would expect from a Partner here. shellyc has also been broadly TR, so I don’t expect that you’ll find much about shellyc in The Bulge’s ISO.

From a strategic perspective, I see why shellyc has focused most of her attention on me. I think if The Bulge flips Scum, she probably knows that nobody objective would consider me as the Partner (which is why those posts of shellyc trying to place me as the Partner are so bad), which notscience clearly demonstrated skepticism towards by asking some obvious questions.

I think The Bulge is the correct vote for today. I don’t think the Town wins a game with The Bulge as Town, personally, because (i) a The Worst / shellyc Team would involve some beautiful theater both yesterday and today, (ii) I can’t bring myself to vote for The Worst, who makes no sense as the Partner of practically anyone in my mind, and (iii) notscience doesn’t seem like Scum to me.

[Andresvmb]

Just so we’re clear though, you’re positing the entire d1 last minute flash wagon was by town on town? This is directed at worst/Andres

I haven’t checked the votes, but it’s entirely possible. If Town are cannibalizing themselves, then why intervene and not just let it happen?

[notscience]

Out of curiosity why were you reading 2022 Shelly

[notscience]

There /is/ very little mention of shelly in bulge's iso or her predecessor.