Newbie 2023 - Hedgehogs - Day 3

[Andresvmb]

I’ll re-read D2 now - I think D1 was a convoluted mess and the only noticeable thing is how little pressure The Bulge and Ouroel applied on other players towards the end of the day.

[the worst]

Just so we’re clear though, you’re positing the entire d1 last minute flash wagon was by town on town? This is directed at worst/Andres

I don't have a strong feeling on that tbqh. Nash was the slimiest voter eod1 and he's now flipped town so :shrug:

literally either it was town on town or scum slipped into it well

what's your feeling?

[the worst]

There /is/ very little mention of shelly in bulge's iso or her predecessor.

oh, yeah: I literally can't work out what bulge is doing towards Shelly's slot which is why I focused on shelly=>bulge not the other way around.

[The Bulge]

Spoiler: big ugly quote wall further explaining what i am seeing from the worst / andre today

Okay so, first of all I fully expect that this game will be a Mafia sweep.

andres if ur super bored could you ctrl+f "bulge" in shelly's iso & tell me what you think?

something Interesting is tickling my Brain

the worst and andre share a little bit of banter about notscience before diving in today, but none of that matters since ultimately notty's answer is...

[bugger that's] not very helpful

anything below andre is <50% certainty, andre flips red is all that is clear to me. Otherwise what am I going on? nka is pointless, i have nothing to PoE, if someone does some vca that might be helpful

pedit top of my list was plusjoyed and bell. bellaphant had been iffy for me but was pretty solid in the end.

If you’re Town we’ve lost the game, so I might just have this 1v1 happen soon and just get it over with. Because the fact that plusJOYED flipped Town and the player you most SR is the guy that didn’t have to vote there seems way off to me.

setting the stage with some lite AtE

Why are you trying to posit we should trust a dead persons reads? Is joyed like an Andre whisperer or something?

i'm not sure if andres thinks this is a silver bullet dude. i get the impression this is hyperbolically asking bulge why he hasn't flinched at his scumread on andres for like, a long ass time.

take for example
- plusjoyed locktownread andres (not very important)
- bulge apparently partner read plusjoyed/andres (now debunked, should probably prompt reconsideration of whether they were partnery or just independently scum)
- i have spoken about why i think andres is town; bulge doesn't seem to think andres/i read partnery, but doesn't seem interested in engaging on my incorrect read or trying to sort me in more depth off it

it doesn't... feel like something bulge strongly believes and wants to determine why other people don't believe and/or whether it's correct? it's just an opinion he's doubling down on?

I'm still scumleaning on Bulge. the worst / bulge scumteam still seems feasible here

the biggest road block in my soul is the SE interactions in this game. for a core of players who enjoy playing with each other a whole bunch and seem to know each other very well there was v v little urgency around them sorting each other or like, co-solving

I don't think it necessarily suits the styles of any of notty/bulge/bella to block the fuck up and smash the game together but there's a weirdly high partner/pocket equity in out trio

I'm not sure why shelly is quoted here, unless the worst forgot what he was originally going to say about her post and got distracted by his agenda to sow confusion between notty (today's chosen kingmaker) and the other 2 SE slots

I suppose I can say

There's very few solves left without one of {NS,me} being fucked up levels of pocketed. I don't *feel* pocketed but when do I ever etc. etc.

to that end I basically need Andres to nuke his scumrange like asap and so far I basically agree with the way he's approaching this phase which means either he's just town or I've Dived In Too Deep : )))

I see things about you/bulge which make for interesting content
I'm curious to see how Andres approaches them
I'm curious to get another perspective into what I'm seeing

I need actual trajectory from notty because his entrance to this phase looks like a wolf in a good spot

That being said, can't really see reasons for andres TR other than "sincerity", " agreeing with reads" (which is half a scumtell) and "gut" from the worst

"Pretty good" but "wrong". Shivering in your scum PT?

pedit: I'm aware of a NS pocket. I really TR them and if needed i can towncase them

neither of them seem particularly interested in my thought experiment.
that's basically why i'm townreading andres, yup. i still don't feel wrong and am still waiting for someone to go "bang. here is why andres is scum.". i suppose i'm hoping my sincerity will shine through because i'm a lazy shit and towncasing him sounds like an awful time.

i still strongly argue that my d2 is like, absolutely riddled with misplays if i'm actually scum with andres but i don't think this is a particularly serious solve so it's kind of a rabbit hole :/
1-2 of {myself,NS} are wrong unless the scumteam is exactly {NS,Bulge} which is a kind of... goofy solve

both of these posts make unnecessary concessions to not have the worst's "on a whim" plan seem over-confident/fabricated. also quite obviously some more baseless sowing of doubt regarding notty's read on my slot

NS me might make sense since we're townbinning each other but I just don't see scum townbinning and not attacking their partner throughout

if you're scum it's probably just with the bulge. bam. said it.

not a convincing reveal of a supposedly back pocket read. before this post it was obvious this was already his decided angle for the day

It's late where I am, but I would feel bad if I did not at least give this game on this last day a decent shot, so let me re-read, and I'll come back with some more concrete thoughts.

this post alone doesn't sketch me out, but its position as a herald for the big plan certainly does.

@andres/NS i really need you two to read this slowly and objectively and tell me how you weigh these tells to & against. i'm... apprehensive, but i don't think shelly is all that likely to be scum with either of you. so if i'm wrong i think there's a very high chance that she's town.

i suppose shelly and bulge are welcome to read it too but i'm unlikely to take them all that seriously

this one's interesting. here you concede that your read on shelly is uncertain, implying that if you're wrong, my partner is in fact andre or notscience. so... why take their response to the post any more seriously than shelly's?

@shelly when did you realise bell was the tpr?

i am a Fool
a FOOL

also unconvincing.

I kinda didn't expect this game to empty out
please all say word things when you get a chance ): despite my serene disposition I don't feel confident about this game at all.

more unnecessary concessions as I touched on above.

I fell asleep reading yesterday, though I intend to finish catching up today. I am working right now, but I did read your posts The Worst and I can see what you’re saying. In my (limited) experience, Scum tend to dance around their Partners until such time as they are forced to take a stance, either because the Town pressure is too great, or because of a mechanical outcome. Hard bussing happens, but is rare, and hard Town reading your Partners and buddying with them tends to happen with players that know each other well and trust each other to play a good game (but not much otherwise, unless a Scum player is able to correctly place themselves in the Town block). I would expect that hard bussing or hard TR your Partner would be a challenge in a newbie game, which is why I had the same thought that it would be difficult for The Bulge / notscience to be a Team, except for the fact that they know each other well and are friends (as stated by notscience). Instead, shellyc not really focusing on The Bulge (who has been under pressure most of the game), and leaving them as a potential Scum and in the POE, fits very well with what I would expect from a Partner here. shellyc has also been broadly TR, so I don’t expect that you’ll find much about shellyc in The Bulge’s ISO.

From a strategic perspective, I see why shellyc has focused most of her attention on me. I think if The Bulge flips Scum, she probably knows that nobody objective would consider me as the Partner (which is why those posts of shellyc trying to place me as the Partner are so bad), which notscience clearly demonstrated skepticism towards by asking some obvious questions.

I think The Bulge is the correct vote for today. I don’t think the Town wins a game with The Bulge as Town, personally, because (i) a The Worst / shellyc Team would involve some beautiful theater both yesterday and today, (ii) I can’t bring myself to vote for The Worst, who makes no sense as the Partner of practically anyone in my mind, and (iii) notscience doesn’t seem like Scum to me.

now if all my observations are correct, this post is essentially a poor attempt at generating discussion around the worst's assertions. andre basically rehashes everything the worst already said, with only the occasional bit of theory talk to claim as original content. this one is a bit of a reach but I feel like the most meaningful bits of discussion these two had about this case happened in the scum pt.

[The Bulge]

i'll still get to explaining my early thoughts on bella to you notty

[The Bulge]

I’ll re-read D2 now - I think D1 was a convoluted mess and the only noticeable thing is how little pressure The Bulge and Ouroel applied on other players towards the end of the day.

throw this one on the pile lol. ouroel was completely absent from the game by the end of day 1. what a weird way to try and further paint the bulge/shelly pairing as plausible

[The Bulge]

i think that reach is a pretty big slip

[notscience]

Bella was the vote that pushed IV iver Andres at the end of d1. Ive said before that if anyone’s scum with Andres it’s most likely your slot.

I also don’t think your progression is nearly as good as you are trying to pass off. I’ll look more when I get home if I don’t pass out

[shellyc]

Out of curiosity why were you reading 2022 Shelly

Reason 1: weaversden came from the same chat mafia site that I played in and I wanted to see how he did
Reason 2: Meta-reasearch reasons

[notscience]

Candidly I think you/bulge isn’t out of the realm of suspicion leading up to today either tbh

I’m most tempted to clown worst frankly but I need to evaluate more

Pedit

I liked playing with weaver! Just needs to not scumread the entire player list lol

[shellyc]

throw this one on the pile lol. ouroel was completely absent from the game by the end of day 1. what a weird way to try and further paint the bulge/shelly pairing as plausible

Bulge pocketing me here?

[notscience]

That doesn’t look like a pocket? I think he’s addressing the supposed team of you two. If anyone’s tying you two together I’d say it’s more the other two. Bulge isn’t really actively trying to pocket anyone? Hes saying the right stuff but he’s not stupid so it’s nai

[notscience]

Shelly as an unbiased 3p hows my treatment of bulge been this game? Do you think it’s more in line with super caution or being pocketed.

[the worst]

in a similar vein, I don't like how the worst has come into this day phase posting lots of long posts, not giving the thread enough time to fully parse and react to his posts, and then presenting his findings again almost as fact. like he is trying to leave people in the dust wrt his thought process to advance the narrative of "it can only be bulge/shelly or worst/andre"

this is pretty close to the opposite of what I'm doing o.0

[the worst]

more gaslighting. ns is very obviously cautious of me this phase and has been since gamestart.

are we reading the same game lol

[notscience]

Please show me where I’m not treating him with extreme caution

Show me the light

[notscience]

@IV I bet you’re in the dead pt enjoying watching my paranoia. I think this is karma.

[shellyc]

Planning to case Bulge today

[The Bulge]

throw this one on the pile lol. ouroel was completely absent from the game by the end of day 1. what a weird way to try and further paint the bulge/shelly pairing as plausible

Bulge pocketing me here?

this post makes a lot more sense if you imagine it at the end of my spoiler wall

in a similar vein, I don't like how the worst has come into this day phase posting lots of long posts, not giving the thread enough time to fully parse and react to his posts, and then presenting his findings again almost as fact. like he is trying to leave people in the dust wrt his thought process to advance the narrative of "it can only be bulge/shelly or worst/andre"

this is pretty close to the opposite of what I'm doing o.0

iirc you waited for andre's take? like i said in my post it looks like 1701 was your queue to get rolling

[notscience]

Shelly js if worst is scum with Andres they just asked for the case to drive you further down the conf bias tunnel. Idk why she’s asking for a case when they are the main pusher of bulge scum?

[shellyc]

Shelly js if worst is scum with Andres they just asked for the case to drive you further down the conf bias tunnel. Idk why she’s asking for a case when they are the main pusher of bulge scum?

im not asking for a case I'm reading their ISO right now

[notscience]

No I’m asking why do you think the worst- who has been pushing bulge as scum ALL DAY would be asking you to case him.

[notscience]

I’m not even defending bulge because I think he’s townie I’m defending him because this push is weird as fuck

[shellyc]

Might not post as much here because of Marathons.

IMO the worst asked me to case him because they thought we were viable partners and they're trying to establish that we are partners (which isn't true)

[notscience]

That crossed my mind too. Idk.

Can you sell me on your worst townread when you’re done your case?