Newbie 2023 - Hedgehogs - Day 3

ISO · Post Post #1800 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:38 pm

i don't really feel like it's bulge/andres

ISO · Post Post #1801 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:40 pm

i can't work out if bulge's bewilderment at me pushing him actually comes from scum who has decided he needs to set me up as a miselim

i'm realising you never pushed andres either despite apparently scum/null-reading him for a long ass time

notscience · Post Post #1802 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:46 pm

Andre can you walk me through what the worst did that convinces you they were town?

Because I saw you say you thought one of joyed and worst is town and then coming into today you said worst convinced you they were town and I don’t see it. I could have missed it, but I’m trying to understand your POV.

ISO · Post Post #1803 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:48 pm

I think I'm 100% ok with an Andres/bulge crossvote atp
I think a me/shelly crossvote probably comes in second place

ISO · Post Post #1804 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:49 pm

I'd kinda like to know if she's scum or if my understanding of the gamestate is like, just utterly bricked

but I think that's self serving and we will need to sort in Andres/bulge to get anywhere near a solve

notscience · Post Post #1805 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:51 pm

I’d rather the second, frankly.

Pedit
You and Andres are in such lockstep it’s so weird.

I don’t get why everyone keeps saying it has to be Andres or bulge

Andresvmb · Post Post #1806 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:55 pm

In post 1802, notscience wrote:Andre can you walk me through what the worst did that convinces you they were town?

Because I saw you say you thought one of joyed and worst is town and then coming into today you said worst convinced you they were town and I don’t see it. I could have missed it, but I’m trying to understand your POV.

the worst has spent a tremendous amount of time trying to figure out my alignment, and they are hard defending me here (almost, not quite, but close to it), in ELo. So from my POV, the worst is extremely polarized. Either he is Town, is reading me right, and is trying to avoid my mis-elimination (and pushing the player that is very likely to be Scum once you conclude that I am Town). Or, he is Scum, and setting me up for a bad vote tomorrow if we do still execute Scum (in his Partner) today.

Right? I don't think there are any other scenarios worth thinking about, for me. I am concluding that 1. is far more likely than 2.

notscience · Post Post #1807 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:02 pm

In post 1499, Andresvmb wrote:^the worst/Bella v. plusJOYED/Nash*

In post 1497, Andresvmb wrote:VOTE: The Bulge

Let’s say that the worst/Nash v. plusJOYED/Nash is a 50/50 or close to it. Then this makes more sense with everybody SR the slot by now.

In post 1579, Andresvmb wrote:Now, The Worst did convince me yesterday about their potential Towniness, but I just think it’s fairly evident that The Bulge and I are not SvS. At least I hope you can see that.

I would like to know what changed between these two posts please. The worst has not even posted toDay as of this point.

notscience · Post Post #1808 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:03 pm

Bulge I still want to understand your trajectory on the worst slot for the record.

shellyc · Post Post #1809 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:04 pm

In post 1801, the worst wrote:i'm realising you never pushed andres either despite apparently scum/null-reading him for a long ass time

BulgevAndres is TvS, i believe Bulge is scum and andres town here

pedit: Bulge is null on worst iirc

Andresvmb · Post Post #1810 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:05 pm

In post 1805, notscience wrote:I’d rather the second, frankly.

Pedit
You and Andres are in such lockstep it’s so weird.

I don’t get why everyone keeps saying it has to be Andres or bulge

I am biased, obviously, but I have very little insight into what The Bulge or you are even leaning right now if we were to try and solve between the worst / shellyc. And that makes me uncomfortable.

notscience · Post Post #1811 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:06 pm

He is working on detailing his trajectory over the whole game. He had a weird townread on bella slot as does Andres and at different points.

I’m frankly wondering if Andres and myself are both pocketed.

Pedit

I’m pretty sure I’ve said a few times I would prefer worst to go today because they make sense as scum with both you and bulge.

shellyc · Post Post #1812 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:09 pm

new lynchpool

Bulge
Worst
Andres
NS

shellyc · Post Post #1813 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:09 pm

didn't worst TR bell because they PR slipped somehow (can't find the PR slip)

notscience · Post Post #1814 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:10 pm

Mmmm I might not have said it.

But I want worst to go, yes.

ISO · Post Post #1815 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:11 pm

In post 1811, notscience wrote:He is working on detailing his trajectory over the whole game. He had a weird townread on bella slot as does Andres and at different points.

I’m frankly wondering if Andres and myself are both pocketed.

Pedit

I’m pretty sure I’ve said a few times I would prefer worst to go today because they make sense as scum with both you and bulge.

this is dead on how i feel about shelly.

Andresvmb · Post Post #1816 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:12 pm

In post 1807, notscience wrote:
In post 1499, Andresvmb wrote:^the worst/Bella v. plusJOYED/Nash*

In post 1497, Andresvmb wrote:VOTE: The Bulge

Let’s say that the worst/Nash v. plusJOYED/Nash is a 50/50 or close to it. Then this makes more sense with everybody SR the slot by now.
In post 1579, Andresvmb wrote:Now, The Worst did convince me yesterday about their potential Towniness, but I just think it’s fairly evident that The Bulge and I are not SvS. At least I hope you can see that.
I would like to know what changed between these two posts please. The worst has not even posted toDay as of this point.

If the worst is Scum, then what chance do I have? I have one, and only one, near certainty here. That is it. And that is The Bulge's alignment. Why? Because of how they have treated my slot, how they continue to try and marginalize me, and how they were inviting me to vote "my buddy" yesterday. It's blatant.

plusJOYED pushed for the worst *hard*. So I did indeed feel like it was a 50/50. And it is possible, in some scenarios, that the worst pushed for plusJOYED so hard back so that The Bulge would make it here. I am not discounting it. But then I am in such a horrible situation that I am almost trying to avoid facing this possibility until I absolutely have to make a decision. Does any of that make sense?

notscience · Post Post #1817 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:14 pm

It sounds like you might be pocketed my dude

Idk I might be too

ISO · Post Post #1818 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:15 pm

i feel this sense of Calm

i'll be voting bulge in like an hour if everyone can gimme a "eh shrug sure"

Andresvmb · Post Post #1819 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:17 pm

In post 1817, notscience wrote:It sounds like you might be pocketed my dude

Idk I might be too

I am not saying that this is not a possibility. It totally is. But I have to take it one step at a time. This solve here is hard.

notscience · Post Post #1820 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:18 pm

Idk.

I’m back and forth on it but I don’t really think it answered my question well either.

I don’t understand how you go from “there is scum in this pair” to “this pair is both town” with the limited posts from the worst between there. Maybe it could be desperation- idk

Pedit

I haven’t reread but I’m the kingmaker so I don’t think my opinion matters. I do think that’s interesting given me calling out how you all kept insisting between Andres and bulge and now mine and shellys solves both have you two as a pair and that’s the new pair

ISO · Post Post #1821 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:19 pm

i think i lose to a {andres/shelly} team. i think there are several points where shelly realises it is correct to bus, rather than play to scum!andres' survival.
i don't think notty really.. has equity with anyone.
i like Literally Feel the conflict of 1816.

i think it's just shelly/bulgy

ISO · Post Post #1822 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:21 pm

tbqh i'd be comfortable enough voting either of them.

i think there's a nonzero chance this game just ends with my elim. i would prefer it didn't happen after all the really obvious work i've put into this, and will fight it, but i won't really lose sleep over it.

i think andres/bulge is too hard to solve.
i think me/shelly is too hard to solve.
let's cross the floor.

Andresvmb · Post Post #1823 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:22 pm

In post 1820, notscience wrote:Idk.

I’m back and forth on it but I don’t really think it answered my question well either.

I don’t understand how you go from “there is scum in this pair” to “this pair is both town” with the limited posts from the worst between there. Maybe it could be desperation- idk

Pedit

I haven’t reread but I’m the kingmaker so I don’t think my opinion matters. I do think that’s interesting given me calling out how you all kept insisting between Andres and bulge and now mine and shellys solves both have you two as a pair and that’s the new pair

It's not "desperation". I am hopefully postponing the decision until the point where I am not under the amount of pressure I am here to simply not lose the game for Town. And it *could* be WIFOM. But I am not completely understanding the angle, and that's why I can't SR it.

Andresvmb · Post Post #1824 (ISO) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:28 pm

In post 1821, the worst wrote:i think i lose to a {andres/shelly} team. i think there are several points where shelly realises it is correct to bus, rather than play to scum!andres' survival.
i don't think notty really.. has equity with anyone.
i like Literally Feel the conflict of 1816.

i think it's just shelly/bulgy

I don't think you could seriously argue this is my Scum game after seeing me play a few times.