Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[catboi]

Lavender:
already said I think there's a chance she could just be scum who doesn't know how to fake it. I actually really dislike the tone of 373. However, I feel as though she'd be a waste of a vote today. evaluate on day 2.

why would she be a waste of a vote on day one? do you think it's gonna get *easier* to evaluate a nothing slot on day two?

have a theory that she might open up some if she's town or at least give us more to work with if not.

[catboi]

Effort for me is NAI, bordering on slightly scummy. I have made a giant reads note post at least one time as scum in both my scum games this year, whereas I do it maybe 1/2 - 2/3rds the time as town. sometimes as town i just say fuck it and follow my heart without doing heavy backtrack reading

I have heard of the fabled scum notedump from you, but I noticed in the example I could find those notes were heavy on the play-by-play but here your notes trend mostly toward analysis.

pooky:
Fuck if I know. 387 bothers me a little because, like, if hectic is good as scum how does following the spare route actually help? His whole game here of just trying to push toward the spare route while offering nothing else is certainly suspect.

A) when we are scum-hunting - we must hunt down all the scum to win.

B) If we r going for 4 spare-win, we r trying to hit 4 townies with spares.

In one scenario (A) if hectic is scum and we fail to deal with him - we lose.

in scenario (B) if hectic is scum but we hit 4 town-spares -it won't matter that hectic is scum.

Why are you assuming he wouldn't get spared, though? This doesn't follow at all unless you'd have a large number of players you're more confident a town than hectic and I don't feel that impression here.

[catboi]

In all seriousness, hadn't decided on who I actually wanted to vote.

The more I think about it, the more I think I'm with you on pooky.

HURT: PookyTheMagicalBear

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Do you think hectic wants to be spared?

[Tanner]

i can try to quantify why I like you more when i get access to a pc again proly

i would appreciate that

Tanner is the kind of easily likeable guy I let slip by too easily and is making things hard rn honestly

while i do enjoy being called a likeable guy, is there anything i can do to make things not-hard?

re: lavender's 431:
am i the only one who sees just how many things are wrong with this post?
~ while i know i didn't make it explicit, i think i've made it pretty clear so far that i'm begging certain people to talk about dayplay-related things, and the fact that lavender answers my question going "oh most of the pages so far are mech" is just?? not to mention that that's blatantly false, since there had been

plenty

of non-mech discussion so far?
~ the next line is again, a non-stance on pooky, and calling the 4 spare route fun?? (while in the last paragraph they wrote how they think they have a better understand of the game because of the mech talk?)
~ when asked who'd they fight if they had to, they chose taylor, because mech-talk is apparently not nothing in their opinion, but in the next line they hurt the backup-mod?

in scenario (B) if hectic is scum but we hit 4 town-spares -it won't matter that hectic is scum.

and good scum cannot be townread enough to the point of getting spared because...????

ok other things in a new post

[Tayl0r Swift]

why are we talking about sparing? didnt we decide that killing was the better option?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

and good scum cannot be townread enough to the point of getting spared because...????

ok other things in a new post

I'm explaining the difference between those 2 scenarios.

in Scenario (A) you need to exec hectic-scum to win

in Scenario (B) you do not need to exec hectic-scum to win - hence an individually brilliant scum player is not nearly as dangerous

[Tanner]

@tanner

why are you voting taylor? is it just because she's still talking setup/spare stuff, or because you have some stronger scumread? if you did i couldn't find it

it's because she keeps going "yes i will play once you stop talking about mechanics" but we have stopped talking about mechanics a long while ago and started talking reads while she's *still* saying how she needs mafia content to play so... what am i supposed to think exactly?

also i was thinking about spares again. i forgot why we gave up on them. i know it's unlikely that we'll spare correctly 4 times in a row, but is the 4 spare ending really that bad? say there's one scum in finale, wouldn't that be pretty good odds with strong town players? or would paranoia + no flips be too much to overcome?

ok, i'll remind you. (1) in order to win immediately, we need to correctly townread and agree on 7 players. there are 9 town players in the game. those are very bad odds. (2) we have not one, but

two

losing conditions (sparing two mafia/sparing Chara). (3) the game becomes half-flipless. that is a much harder environment to solve in, and then it becomes frustrating and demotivating. (4) if we make it to the end of day 4 and we haven't won yet (or lost), town's EV then becomes 25%. which is already bad enough, but also with the possibility of there being 2 scum in 5 players, which means one wrong vote and gg.

4 spare route is literally shooting ourselves in the foot for no reason.

puppy, can you talk a bit about your read on me? the only *concrete* thing you've said so far (unless i missed something, in which case link me) is that i sound kinda like that game we played together (151)

[catboi]

also i was thinking about spares again. i forgot why we gave up on them. i know it's unlikely that we'll spare correctly 4 times in a row, but is the 4 spare ending really that bad? say there's one scum in finale, wouldn't that be pretty good odds with strong town players? or would paranoia + no flips be too much to overcome?

The 4 spare ending is pretty bad if you miss once, yeah? What you're missing is that town then has to select

another

person to be spared of the remaining 4, not pick the lone mafia among them, and then if they get that right, take a blind guess at the mafia among 4 people. 1 in 4 is really hard! by comparison on the fight route you can get a 1/2, 1/3 endgame at worst. But there's also another factor.

I guess the best way to explain this is, to win the spare route outright, you technically need to correctly townread 7 players (4 spares + the three mafia NKs). Technically, to win the fight route, you need to do the same - you have 5 eliminations, tops, so that leaves 7 people you can't eliminate. BUT with the fight route, you get the benefit of flips immediately that you can draw conclusions from, including chara if we end up missing on day 1. It also creates an endgame scenario where it's virtually impossible to deepwolf.

I've never been one to townblock, and I don't think I can win the game on day 1 by identifying 7 townies, but I'd like to try to assemble something, maybe get 5 people. If it's bad we'll probably learn right away from the chara flip.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you don't need 7 consensus townreads

you just need 4

[Tanner]

Lavender:
already said I think there's a chance she could just be scum who doesn't know how to fake it. I actually really dislike the tone of 373. However, I feel as though she'd be a waste of a vote today. evaluate on day 2.

why would she be a waste of a vote on day one? do you think it's gonna get *easier* to evaluate a nothing slot on day two?

have a theory that she might open up some if she's town or at least give us more to work with if not.

is this theory based on experience...?

oh hey look a serious wagon for once?
HURT: pooky

why are we talking about sparing? didnt we decide that killing was the better option?

we have, except for this one person that keeps pushing it. any dayplay related thoughts?

in Scenario (B) you do not need to exec hectic-scum to win - hence an individually brilliant scum player is not nearly as dangerous

and if that individually brilliant scum player gets spared, which if they're so amazingly brilliant is very likely, then we still need to execute him.

you don't need 7 consensus townreads

you just need 4

scum will kill townread people
like this is not difficult
even if we don't say it aloud which players we're townreading
scum isn't brainless

also i find it funny how me and catboi explained pretty much the same thing at the same time.

[catboi]

re: lavender's 431:
am i the only one who sees just how many things are wrong with this post?
~ while i know i didn't make it explicit, i think i've made it pretty clear so far that i'm begging certain people to talk about dayplay-related things, and the fact that lavender answers my question going "oh most of the pages so far are mech" is just?? not to mention that that's blatantly false, since there had been plenty of non-mech discussion so far?
~ the next line is again, a non-stance on pooky, and calling the 4 spare route fun?? (while in the last paragraph they wrote how they think they have a better understand of the game because of the mech talk?)
~ when asked who'd they fight if they had to, they chose taylor, because mech-talk is apparently not nothing in their opinion, but in the next line they hurt the backup-mod?

No, you're right, I didn't like her "ask me questions so I have something to talk about" and the more I read that post, the more I hate it. That first paragraph is such a non-statement, and the comment on taylor at the end is really bad, that looks like a really manufactured fos, like, dislikes mechanics talk = must not be townie? it looks like a read from someone who doesn't know how to fake it, yeah.

[catboi]

Okay I'm proposing an alliance between me, Tanner, Morning Tweet, and redtea. Just need to find one more person there I'm comfy with.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

scum will kill townread people
like this is not difficult
even if we don't say it aloud which players we're townreading
scum isn't brainless

If you rank order them of course but the people who are charismatic and dominate gameflow and the people who they read as town are different people.

I'd expect scum to shoot for the people who pose danger to them but noobs who town-slip would not be one of the choices.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

and if that individually brilliant scum player gets spared, which if they're so amazingly brilliant is very likely, then we still need to execute him.

You're kind of missing the point here.

The individually brilliant player would not want to be spared - so he is not a danger.

[Tanner]

if we're going the 4-spares route, noobs who are blatantly obvtown are like... the perfect nightkill material...

pedit: scum's wincon in that scenario literally is to get spared though?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

r the scum going to kill the brilliant town players who are good at picking out town-tells and sparing the right players or are they going to target fire the noobs townslipping? Can't have it both ways

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

pedit: scum's wincon in that scenario literally is to get spared though?

yes but think about what a brilliant TOWN player's win con is.

[catboi]

is this theory based on experience...?

No, I just had a little observation of her games and had a really crackpot theory of "she's probably not chara so leave her be for now", not that exclusively chara hunting is a smart thing to do, just that I don't need to worry about her poofing the game with no content. I also felt like if she is town, mis-eliminating her would get us basically nothing. That post you just mentioned was scummy enough that I'm no longer concerned with that and would happily vote her today, as much as it would pain me to do so ( ◞᷄દ◟᷅ )

oh hey look a serious wagon for once?
HURT: pooky

IYO, does this look like coalition pooky? Because it feels like a similar approach.

[Tanner]

r the scum going to kill the brilliant town players who are good at picking out town-tells and sparing the right players or are they going to target fire the noobs townslipping? Can't have it both ways

this is assuming that the brilliant town players who are good at picking out towntells won't pick out the towntells from each other which is... wrong? and why can't i have it both ways exactly, if scum saw the townspewing nweb getting spared, why not shoot them on like night 2 or 3 after taking out a storng town player first? like they can change their strategy for nightkills?

also why do you want to argue about hypothetical scum and hypothetical noobs townspewing themselves when like... nobody has exactly newb-townspewed themselves so far and i doubt that they will?

pedit: scum's wincon in that scenario literally is to get spared though?

yes but think about what a brilliant TOWN player's win con is.

to get spared? to read people correctly and ensure scum isn't spared?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Tanner,

like let me give you a really simple example.

Let's pretend you are the world's best mafia player - you are brilliant as both scum and town - your range is very wide in both directions.

Let's say you know with 99% certainty that 2 players are widely outside their scum-range and have town-slipped.

In a normal game that doesn't really help you much because the PoE only narrows from 11 to 9 and you still are limited by mistakes made by the remaining players. However in this game it's almost as good as gold -

You could push for A-B to be back to back spares. Scum use their shot on you because you're super awesome, and A-B get spared back to back and we are 50% of the way towards winning the game.

If scum shoot B, we still got A and you can still find the next town-slip or def-town player.

So if a brilliant player like Hectic is town, he would be a tremendous asset if we are going the Spare Route. However if he was scum - it's really hard for him to actually do damage because a Good-Town Hectic would not actually want to get spared himself.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

this is assuming that the brilliant town players who are good at picking out towntells won't pick out the towntells from each other which is... wrong? and why can't i have it both ways exactly, if scum saw the townspewing nweb getting spared, why not shoot them on like night 2 or 3 after taking out a storng town player first? like they can change their strategy for nightkills?

Brilliant players by definition cannot town-slip.

Because the whole point of being a "brilliant player" is that your scum-range is so freaking wide that nothing would constitute a town slip from you.

Only noobs can townslip.

[Tanner]

IYO, does this look like coalition pooky? Because it feels like a similar approach.

i don't know, actually? wasn't he like... giving reads and trying to be townread in coalition? how does it feel like a similar approach?

and to make it clear, i'm not saying "he's not trying to be townread" = "town"

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I mean this is me in every game with weird voting rules and stuff.

I will always go super try-hard on figuring out a way to game the system to get us the win.

Like I do this for like every game I've ever played when I'm trying it out for the first time.

[Chara]

So if a brilliant player like Hectic is town, he would be a tremendous asset if we are going the Spare Route. However if he was scum - it's really hard for him to actually do damage because a Good-Town Hectic would not actually want to get spared himself.

but town Hectic did want to get spared and did get spared the last time this setup was run.