Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[redtea]

@Puppy I kept missing your posting hours, and then you were gone but I did indeed read your posts and had some opinions I couldn't go anywhere with without you around.
People were askin me "hey what're you sniffin on puppy" and I couldn't answer.

also i was thinking about spares again. i forgot why we gave up on them. i know it's unlikely that we'll spare correctly 4 times in a row, but is the 4 spare ending really that bad? say there's one scum in finale, wouldn't that be pretty good odds with strong town players? or would paranoia + no flips be too much to overcome?

.

[redtea]

pagetops kinda ruining my multi-posts vibe honestly

[Elements]

Spoiler:

thanks isis! sorryr for not bolding

so genocide is just better right? at least to start? sparing has a 1/12 chance of just plain losing the game, fighting has a 1/12 chance of hitting the vengeful but that would help in the Zero spare route and even if we hit town we'll still be setting up more cop clears in the 1-3 route.

yeah, pretty sure killing is just better here. is that a meta-commentary on the game of mafia? we could chose to work together but always end up fighting instead. we could be loving and kind and caring, but... killing is just better anyways. uh, neat. kill on!

One to three : The mafia must choose an unspared player to be publicly investigated for each living mafia. Skip night 4. Return spared players to the game thread. If mafia was spared, the mafia immediately wins if two of its players survive the day 5 decision.
Zero : The mafia must choose two players to be publicly investigated. If Chara was fought, the mafia must choose everyone. Skip night 4.

I think 1-3 could be better in one or two cases. 0 is better if chara gets fought, but 1-3 is better if no scum get eliminated (though that would depend on chara living which is unlikely?) Hm, maybe 0 spares straight up is better

i kind of really want sparing to work, but i just don't think it does

how do you figure that sparing works best in the first two days? that's also when we could spare chara and that's an autoloss. if you spare early you also increase the risk of the chara surviving

also though

hectic who would you spare right now

hm. how would we agree on who gets nominated?

also i was thinking about spares again. i forgot why we gave up on them. i know it's unlikely that we'll spare correctly 4 times in a row, but is the 4 spare ending really that bad? say there's one scum in finale, wouldn't that be pretty good odds with strong town players? or would paranoia + no flips be too much to overcome?

Anyone want to apologise for hurting me for saying puppy was changing their tune?

[Elements]

fyi my elements vote is semi-serious now, it's more than sheeping chara (actually i think she made the point first and technically i voted first?) anyways, i think i have a decent reason for voting elements if you want to hear it (you want to hear it don't you squidward)

please do, I don't believe you.
HURT: puppy

[Elements]

wow, I feel like my reads are completely the opposite to everyone elses

[catboi]

Prism, if you care for it, Your Nightmare just concluded. Hectic won this as scum. i caught him day 1 but wasn't confident enough to get him eliminated and then got killed.
it'll certainly effect my own approach this game, and as it's fairly short i thought i'd mention it to you.

(●´ω｀●)ゞ Have to ask: what do

you

think of him this game?

IYO, does this look like coalition pooky? Because it feels like a similar approach.

i don't know, actually? wasn't he like... giving reads and trying to be townread in coalition? how does it feel like a similar approach?

and to make it clear, i'm not saying "he's not trying to be townread" = "town"

Just, the overall chummy hey guys let's have fun and pick the town attitude, the lack of real

serious

commentary or attempting to sort people. Honestly his whole last couple page of posting makes my skin crawl.

i think what I was thinking of was how Pooky points out our odds go up immensely if days 1 and 2 are slamdunk townread winners guaranteed. I guess i can find it somewhat more believable that he believes in his plan, if that makes sense.

I was also going to say I liked his "I always do this every game with mechanics, I always try to break the setup" but on other pass ehh maybe not as much i dont think its AI

You know the funny thing though? We fight mafia on day 1, our odds also drastically go up, to the point it's not even worth comparing. I want to get this thing in the bag as early as possible.

okay catboi how did I get in here and not Prism. That isn't a thing that happens.
For real though, did you like, forget them?

I'll go ahead and make it clear here that my reads of that list is [town, neutral, town-lean]. Not trying to kick Tanner out or anything; for all Intents and Purposes I may as well consider him an ally, as I wouldn't fight him today and he doesn't seem to have the formidable-scary-maf reputation Chara does.

(.=^・ェ・^=) You feel like an easier read than Prism. I have one recent forum game with you, you feel similar this game and you haven't rolled scum in a long time. Prism I do not have recent forum game experience with, only a handful of chat games, and I think he's capable of strong scum play. The bar for him to clear for being a strong townread is higher than it is for you. He's not quite there yet.

[Hectic]

-of my townplay so high, that they become suspicious when I inevitably don't meet those standards. VERY clever...

But seriously, I have a very loose grasp of this game currently. My check for how much I'm into a game is if I can sort the playerlist into a readlist (everyone gets their own tier) without having to reISO or reread anyone, and I am VERY far from being able to do that right now. Pooky has inspired me to sit down and put more time into this though, so I'll be doing that tonight.

[Hectic]

wow, I feel like my reads are completely the opposite to everyone elses

[Hectic]

-emoji department. Pick up the pace, Morning; it's KILL or BE KILLED in this world, and you're currently being killed... metaphorically speaking.

[CantHateAPuppy]

]
Sure, hit me.

Okay!

It started with Chara's observation in 160 that elements is talking about sparing, but isn't really looking for spares. Like, he still isn't, btw, he's just sort of moved on since everyone is over sparing. But where's the passion, does he look like he's trying to town hunt at all?

Ok that was old stuff but then there's my argument (?) With him around 196. He sort of decides that my asking about spares is scummy. Uh...? He doesn't posit why this is scummy, he just asserts that I'm "changing my tune" and after a respectable distance he parks his vote on me (and hasn't done anything with it?)

Maybe this is weak but it's only D1 and I'm fine with this read and would wagon him for it

[Elements]

Hectic - Town
Elements - Town
Chara - null
Prism - town
PookyTheMagicalBear - chara
catboi - town
Morning Tweet - town
Tayl0r Swift - eh
Lavender - who?
redtea - eh
Tanner - scum
CantLynchAPuppy - scum

[CantHateAPuppy]

@tanner

why are you voting taylor? is it just because she's still talking setup/spare stuff, or because you have some stronger scumread? if you did i couldn't find it

it's because she keeps going "yes i will play once you stop talking about mechanics" but we have stopped talking about mechanics a long while ago and started talking reads while she's *still* saying how she needs mafia content to play so... what am i supposed to think exactly?

also i was thinking about spares again. i forgot why we gave up on them. i know it's unlikely that we'll spare correctly 4 times in a row, but is the 4 spare ending really that bad? say there's one scum in finale, wouldn't that be pretty good odds with strong town players? or would paranoia + no flips be too much to overcome?

ok, i'll remind you. (1) in order to win immediately, we need to correctly townread and agree on 7 players. there are 9 town players in the game. those are very bad odds. (2) we have not one, but

two

losing conditions (sparing two mafia/sparing Chara). (3) the game becomes half-flipless. that is a much harder environment to solve in, and then it becomes frustrating and demotivating. (4) if we make it to the end of day 4 and we haven't won yet (or lost), town's EV then becomes 25%. which is already bad enough, but also with the possibility of there being 2 scum in 5 players, which means one wrong vote and gg.

4 spare route is literally shooting ourselves in the foot for no reason.

puppy, can you talk a bit about your read on me? the only *concrete* thing you've said so far (unless i missed something, in which case link me) is that i sound kinda like that game we played together (151)

On phone so not gonna parse the quote just a few different things:

* Tanner you're kinda prickly you know? I noticed it in our last game when you got on me and didn't let go. (I don't mean it's a bad thing lol) but in addition to the other stuff about wanting you to be town, you have that same sticky energy by hunting down the people talking about spares (which tbh maybe you are doing too much of? It's not *that* productive)

Also I'm lately trying something where I just assume a few players are town and work on that basis. Less wifom that way, and if you get a deep townbloc going that's way more powerful than pure scumhunting. If you're not town I think you'll be unable to keep up with me

[CantHateAPuppy]

Also I think taylor still talking spares is null, maybe she's just stubborn? There are a few players I'd like to see reads from more than setup spec (looking at you pooky ) and you're maybe tunneling on them tbh?

[CantHateAPuppy]

@Puppy I kept missing your posting hours, and then you were gone but I did indeed read your posts and had some opinions I couldn't go anywhere with without you around.

It's me! I'm here. Ready once again to save the day and help you do, uh ...?

[CantHateAPuppy]

Hectic - Town
Elements - Town
Chara - null
Prism - town
PookyTheMagicalBear - chara
catboi - town
Morning Tweet - town
Tayl0r Swift - eh
Lavender - who?
redtea - eh
Tanner - scum
CantLynchAPuppy - scum

Lmao

[Elements]

Hectic - Town
Elements - Town
Chara - null
Prism - town
PookyTheMagicalBear - chara
catboi - town
Morning Tweet - town
Tayl0r Swift - eh
Lavender - who?
redtea - eh
Tanner - scum
CantLynchAPuppy - scum

Lmao

did i not guess your partners correctly or something?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i mean at this point if you aren't reading me as Chara your reads are just weird ^^

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

unfortunately catboi is too town for that

I don't believe it's possible for an experienced player to be "too-town" unless they like single-handedly are responsible for getting rid of like nearly the entire scum-team or whatever.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

one of them should be pooky
one of them should be me
one of them should be hectic

btw this post is why i think elements is chara.

he very conveniently puts himself in the middle of the order - he can't be last because he'd die on D3 - so it's a sneaky middle of the pack insert - he doesn't put himself first because he's a very sneaky chara.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Hectic - Town
Elements - Town
Chara - null
Prism - town
PookyTheMagicalBear - chara
catboi - town
Morning Tweet - town
Tayl0r Swift - eh
Lavender - who?
redtea - eh
Tanner - scum
CantLynchAPuppy - scum

This is just hilarious read from Elements because to believe Pooky-Chara / Puppy-Goon you'd have to think we are 2 of the worst mafia players in history. It makes no sense for puppy to say I give good vibes and be like that close to me especially considering that if I was the actual chara I'd flip on D1 if town goes the hurt route and there's pretty big chance town does go the hurt route.

If you take the time to think about how a chara would actually be behaving on D1 if the town is heavy against 4-spare, you'd either see less posting, distancing or some kind of weird in between - it would be nearly suicidal stupid to openly buddy a scum goon to the chara.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Also I think taylor still talking spares is null, maybe she's just stubborn? There are a few players I'd like to see reads from more than setup spec (looking at you pooky ) and you're maybe tunneling on them tbh?

in case it wasnt clear, i was advocating that we fight

[Tanner]

* Tanner you're kinda prickly you know? I noticed it in our last game when you got on me and didn't let go. (I don't mean it's a bad thing lol) but in addition to the other stuff about wanting you to be town, you have that same sticky energy by hunting down the people talking about spares (which tbh maybe you are doing too much of? It's not *that* productive)

ehh, you're not wrong. is there a reason you're putting it to alignment rather than personality? (other than "assume some people town" i guess)

i mean, define productive. imo getting people onto the highest EV path is productive. getting everyone to start talking reads is productive, because i will have a very hard time caring about this game if there's 3 people ~doing nothing~. am i succeeding in what i'm doing? debateable.

elements's pooky/puppy/tanner team is a... spicy take.

in case it wasnt clear, i was advocating that we fight

ok, who do you want to fight?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i mean, define productive. imo getting people onto the highest EV path is productive. getting everyone to start talking reads is productive, because i will have a very hard time caring about this game if there's 3 people ~doing nothing~. am i succeeding in what i'm doing? debateable.

you know it probably would've been way easier to get AI-reads on the scum team if we had at least pretended to be down with the 4-spare strategy for a few days to give the incentive for scum to try to get a chara-spare win rather than just being like hell no there's no way we r giving chara a chance to win early.

[CantHateAPuppy]

* Tanner you're kinda prickly you know? I noticed it in our last game when you got on me and didn't let go. (I don't mean it's a bad thing lol) but in addition to the other stuff about wanting you to be town, you have that same sticky energy by hunting down the people talking about spares (which tbh maybe you are doing too much of? It's not *that* productive)

ehh, you're not wrong. is there a reason you're putting it to alignment rather than personality? (other than "assume some people town" i guess)

sorry, i guess i left out the thought that goes "you're kind of prickly and i think that matches what i saw of your town game, also im not sure if you could fake being prickly or not"

like, i think if you were scum you'd have to be more accommodating? maybe you're prickly as scum, you can point me to a scumgame of yours and convince me you're not town if you want

[Tayl0r Swift]

my lame take is that lavender is scummy for lurking. my spicy take is that puppy might be a good candidate to fight.