FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Caster]

Did that post come from the same person who just tried to vote assassin

[Servant Assassin]

as i recall you were blocing with caster foreigner and rider? basically the rest of my PoE.

How, exactly was I forming a bloc with them? two of them were voting me, yes, but that didn't mean I was necessarily in sync with them in any way. As for Caster, how was I blocing with them at all? And, for that matter, when did you begin to suspect Rider?

863 saw you posting in concert with scummy people and making posts that i thought most likely came from scum. but then i saw other posts that were almost certainly from town. so i decided that while you were probably being led around by the nose, i decided that you are town. i still wouldnt vote for you because i wasnt confident in the townread, and also because i disagree with your reads too much to trust your judgement. Im concerned that you are gonna master scum and that your reads will be unduly influenced by scum.

The post you are citing as coming from town was 829, though. That happened before post 863. So I'm curious as to how the earlier post somehow changed your thinking toward the later post? And for that matter, if you felt there were scummy people voting me, why is it an issue when

I

raised the concept that there were scum on my wagon? How is it that I was "being led around by the nose" when I expressed skepticism toward my supporters? What reads of mine do you disagree with? The views you are expressing seem wildly contradictory.

[Servant Assassin]

Did that post come from the same person who just tried to vote assassin

Why are you so hung up on a post that was fairly clearly a joke?

[Servant Caster]

I thought they were serious but also what do you mean so hung up this is the first time I've mentioned it

[Servant Assassin]

You thought they were seriously voting me, the IC, after they answered my GTH?

[Servant Caster]

I don't know what a GTH is but yes I thought they were that behind/not paying attention or accepting their death and trolling

[Servant Assassin]

The gun to head question? The thing that ran for two whole pages?

If you're seeing someone not paying attention, I think it's because you're looking in a mirror.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Before I get into reading the 5-6 pages since day start. AE can I get your thoughts on the eod movement onto Assassin (haven't read how that developed yet either).

I'm specifically interested in what you think it means for the three slots vying for master and the slots that moved votes. I want to pick someone else's brain on the macro.

There was one vote that went from Caster to Avenger without progression in the thread prior to the vote. That was Saber's vote in 1031. They gave a partial explanation a few posts after the vote, and then more in their first post after the flip. I really need more from them about how they're processing the game.

The first vote that occurred in the midst of Berserker's posts about Assassin self voting making them likely scum and should set off alarms of every townie in earshot was Archer. The Assassin wagon revival would have happened anyway IMO, but Archer's vote started breathing life back into it. They'd been voting Assassin since 189. Tonewise, Archer was as insistent that Assassin was town as Berserker was insistent Assassin was scum.

Is there a problem with that? For me there is, but I'm not as jumpy as I was while Archer's posts were hitting the thread yesterday. Up to that point, Archer hadn't really struck me as someone who'd go toe-to-toe with the loudest and most polarized player in the game over one of their reads. Keep the read, yeah. Vote the player, yeah. Argue against the loud voice? Not so sure. It seems at least a little more likely that Archer would be arguing (my impression: without much depth) for town Assassin, knowing the read was correct than risk getting into a match with Berserker over a read that could be wrong.

Lancer also vocally wanted votes to swing back to Assassin, and was vocal about it before Assassin self-voted in 1034. Of all the stances during those votes Archer and Lancer felt the most like they could be coordinated. But, I have a weak townread on Lancer and the correlations between their posts during the timeframe totally could be coincidental.

The other large-ish set of correlations in that period were me/rider/Foreigner. And these really stand out to me because at the time I felt like I was potentially wielding 2 to 3 votes not just my own. I didn't expect or try to talk Rider into considering Avenger. Foreigner wanted to move to Avenger if I did (it's a little more complicated than that). I felt a lot of pressure to be right if I moved my vote to Avenger. I'd just gotten to the point of steeling my nerves to change my vote when Assassin showed up again.

What have you gleaned from your reread?

[Servant Shielder]

Did that post come from the same person who just tried to vote assassin

Why are you so hung up on a post that was fairly clearly a joke?

something something scum something cognitive load something not getting jokes something something

[Servant Shielder]

as i recall you were blocing with caster foreigner and rider? basically the rest of my PoE.

How, exactly was I forming a bloc with them? two of them were voting me, yes, but that didn't mean I was necessarily in sync with them in any way. As for Caster, how was I blocing with them at all? And, for that matter, when did you begin to suspect Rider?

863 saw you posting in concert with scummy people and making posts that i thought most likely came from scum. but then i saw other posts that were almost certainly from town. so i decided that while you were probably being led around by the nose, i decided that you are town. i still wouldnt vote for you because i wasnt confident in the townread, and also because i disagree with your reads too much to trust your judgement. Im concerned that you are gonna master scum and that your reads will be unduly influenced by scum.

The post you are citing as coming from town was 829, though. That happened before post 863. So I'm curious as to how the earlier post somehow changed your thinking toward the later post? And for that matter, if you felt there were scummy people voting me, why is it an issue when

I

raised the concept that there were scum on my wagon? How is it that I was "being led around by the nose" when I expressed skepticism toward my supporters? What reads of mine do you disagree with? The views you are expressing seem wildly contradictory.

ill address the second thing first. i was posting as i read so i think the timing of the posts might be a little wonky. if i made 863 prior to reading 829, and then made 865 about 829 and then that makes sense right? i honestly couldnt tell you what any of your reads are at this point, so i couldnt tell you what i disagree with. i feel no need to be consistent or coherent or non-contradictory at this early stage. I'm gonna call things as I see them post by post, and eventually the bad ideas will be weeded out leaving only the good ideas at the end. if anything, me not pushing a consistent agenda should suggest that perhaps i dont have an agenda that im pushing? it struck me as odd that youd call attention to the fact that there was probably scum voting for you. if you know youre town then you also know scum has an incentive to not master you. now thats different from voting you (scum also wants to blend in), but the post just struck me as odd.

as for the first point, it just seemed like you all were largely in sync and disagreeing with the people that i was confidently townreading (alter ego, berserker, etc). agreeing with my scumreads and disagreeing with my townreads makes me skeptical of you.

[Servant Assassin]

i honestly couldnt tell you what any of your reads are at this point, so i couldnt tell you what i disagree with.

You...just said you disagree with my reads too much trust my judgment. How can you disagree with something you don't know? I feel dizzy.

it struck me as odd that youd call attention to the fact that there was probably scum voting for you. if you know youre town then you also know scum has an incentive to not master you. now thats different from voting you (scum also wants to blend in), but the post just struck me as odd.

But...you yourself had expressed skepticism of some of the people voting me. Why is it wrong for me to do that myself? I think assuming that everyone who was pushing the master vote on me was town would be a serious error in judgment. And again: how is this supposed to cohere with me "blocing" with your scumreads when I am being skeptical of them?

as for the first point, it just seemed like you all were largely in sync and disagreeing with the people that i was confidently townreading (alter ego, berserker, etc). agreeing with my scumreads and disagreeing with my townreads makes me skeptical of you.

I would like some concrete examples, please. I can't just accept this explanation based on vague feelings. Show me these posts.

[Servant Assassin]

And, not to foist too much work on you, but as I have it here, your current scumreads are: Lancer, Ruler, Rider, Caster, and Archer. Would you mind giving me a few words on why you suspect each of these people? You don't need to pull quotes for this, 1-3 sentences on each should suffice.

[Servant Beast]

I kind of like new shielder.

Yea that's right, I'm still here.

[Servant Assassin]

Hello Beast, I missed you very much.

[Servant Beast]

Hello Beast, I missed you very much.

I'm just going to skip by the part where I asked for anyone but you for master, if that's ok.

Do you still want that GTH list?

[Servant Shielder]

i honestly couldnt tell you what any of your reads are at this point, so i couldnt tell you what i disagree with.

You...just said you disagree with my reads too much trust my judgment. How can you disagree with something you don't know? I feel dizzy.

it struck me as odd that youd call attention to the fact that there was probably scum voting for you. if you know youre town then you also know scum has an incentive to not master you. now thats different from voting you (scum also wants to blend in), but the post just struck me as odd.

But...you yourself had expressed skepticism of some of the people voting me. Why is it wrong for me to do that myself? I think assuming that everyone who was pushing the master vote on me was town would be a serious error in judgment. And again: how is this supposed to cohere with me "blocing" with your scumreads when I am being skeptical of them?

as for the first point, it just seemed like you all were largely in sync and disagreeing with the people that i was confidently townreading (alter ego, berserker, etc). agreeing with my scumreads and disagreeing with my townreads makes me skeptical of you.

I would like some concrete examples, please. I can't just accept this explanation based on vague feelings. Show me these posts.

i dont really see any conflict in the second point. i think your unique position as the person being voted was strange. its a moot point. youre town.

as for the first and third point, ill give a single response: day 0 was not an enjoyable read for me. I read it through once and gave thoughts as I did. I remember impressions i got but not specific posts, and I have absolutely zero inclination to go back through and re-read. like i said earlier, day 1 and forward ill be contributing more and differently, and that should establish me as town. if you want to lynch me for that...... ok? i dont mind efforting, but i do mind putting in a bunch of effort to rehash day 0.

[Servant Assassin]

Hello Beast, I missed you very much.

I'm just going to skip by the part where I asked for anyone but you for master, if that's ok.

Do you still want that GTH list?

I would appreciate it, yes, especially seeing as you are certainly one of the more opaque posters currently.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Mooncancer,
It's a loaded question, but what are you lying about? Your entry just doesn't fit with the rest of your play this game.

Not sure exactly what you're misinterpreting but this is funnily enough probably the only game in a long, long time where I'm breaking my usual style and telling nothing but the truth lol. Though I suppose you have to determine whether I'm lying in this post : ]

[Servant Beast]

MOON CANCER
LANCER
BEAST
RULER

Scum
Town
Town
Scum

RIDER
SHIELDER
CASTER
ARCHER

Town
Scum
Town
Scum

SABER
AVENGER
ALTER EGO
BERSERKER
FOREIGNER

Scum
Town
Town
Town
Town

Loses it potency without being an actual gun to my head, but there you are.

[Servant Assassin]

as for the first and third point, ill give a single response: day 0 was not an enjoyable read for me. I read it through once and gave thoughts as I did. I remember impressions i got but not specific posts, and I have absolutely zero inclination to go back through and re-read. like i said earlier, day 1 and forward ill be contributing more and differently, and that should establish me as town. if you want to lynch me for that...... ok? i dont mind efforting, but i do mind putting in a bunch of effort to rehash day 0.

My intention is not to re-litigate day 0 but to try to draw out the reasoning behind your thought process. After all, your current reads can only be based on what happened on that day 0. Your play so far this game has been to pop in occasionally, fire off a handful of reads without much support, and then disappear again. I suspect this is a large part of why many people want to bury you right now. This has to change. You need to explain yourself more, and a necessary part of that is going to be looking back at what shaped your current view of the game.

[Servant Beast]

Your play so far this game has been to pop in occasionally, fire off a handful of reads without much support, and then disappear again.

This also describes me to be fair, and I'm town.

[Servant Shielder]

as for the first and third point, ill give a single response: day 0 was not an enjoyable read for me. I read it through once and gave thoughts as I did. I remember impressions i got but not specific posts, and I have absolutely zero inclination to go back through and re-read. like i said earlier, day 1 and forward ill be contributing more and differently, and that should establish me as town. if you want to lynch me for that...... ok? i dont mind efforting, but i do mind putting in a bunch of effort to rehash day 0.

My intention is not to re-litigate day 0 but to try to draw out the reasoning behind your thought process. After all, your current reads can only be based on what happened on that day 0. Your play so far this game has been to pop in occasionally, fire off a handful of reads without much support, and then disappear again. I suspect this is a large part of why many people want to bury you right now. This has to change. You need to explain yourself more, and a necessary part of that is going to be looking back at what shaped your current view of the game.

fair enough. that isnt gonna happen just because you tell me i need to go reread though. first, im not gonna reread day 0. second, those wont be natural reads, so it would be pretty easy to fake as scum and i dont feel that youd learn that much. how about this. lets table me as the elim for day 1.1. let me contribute and prove myself, and if youre still concerned you can always elim me in day 1.2 without any real cost to you.

[Servant Shielder]

note that already today ive been contributing more and betterer. i also think im better in the lategame than earlygame. and again, my day 1s are generally scumread.

[Servant Assassin]

...I don't think it's too much to ask you to back up claims you made with evidence of what you saw. We were provided a notes topic for a reason! I recommend using it.

But, if you won't dredge up examples for me right now (and I can at least understand not wanting to wade back through the muck right away), can you at least answer 1311 and explain your current scumreads?

[Servant Ruler]

Before I get into reading the 5-6 pages since day start. AE can I get your thoughts on the eod movement onto Assassin (haven't read how that developed yet either).

I'm specifically interested in what you think it means for the three slots vying for master and the slots that moved votes. I want to pick someone else's brain on the macro.

There was one vote that went from Caster to Avenger without progression in the thread prior to the vote. That was Saber's vote in 1031. They gave a partial explanation a few posts after the vote, and then more in their first post after the flip. I really need more from them about how they're processing the game.

The first vote that occurred in the midst of Berserker's posts about Assassin self voting making them likely scum and should set off alarms of every townie in earshot was Archer. The Assassin wagon revival would have happened anyway IMO, but Archer's vote started breathing life back into it. They'd been voting Assassin since 189. Tonewise, Archer was as insistent that Assassin was town as Berserker was insistent Assassin was scum.

Is there a problem with that? For me there is, but I'm not as jumpy as I was while Archer's posts were hitting the thread yesterday. Up to that point, Archer hadn't really struck me as someone who'd go toe-to-toe with the loudest and most polarized player in the game over one of their reads. Keep the read, yeah. Vote the player, yeah. Argue against the loud voice? Not so sure. It seems at least a little more likely that Archer would be arguing (my impression: without much depth) for town Assassin, knowing the read was correct than risk getting into a match with Berserker over a read that could be wrong.

Lancer also vocally wanted votes to swing back to Assassin, and was vocal about it before Assassin self-voted in 1034. Of all the stances during those votes Archer and Lancer felt the most like they could be coordinated. But, I have a weak townread on Lancer and the correlations between their posts during the timeframe totally could be coincidental.

The other large-ish set of correlations in that period were me/rider/Foreigner. And these really stand out to me because at the time I felt like I was potentially wielding 2 to 3 votes not just my own. I didn't expect or try to talk Rider into considering Avenger. Foreigner wanted to move to Avenger if I did (it's a little more complicated than that). I felt a lot of pressure to be right if I moved my vote to Avenger. I'd just gotten to the point of steeling my nerves to change my vote when Assassin showed up again.

What have you gleaned from your reread?

This might get kind of Wall-y.

So I'll preface all of this by saying I wasn't really town leaning Assassin until his reaction gambit on Archer. But enough people were townreading that slot that I figured he must have done some really townie shit before my rep in. But he brought up something I thought was interesting in 709-711.

Specifically his theory on scum participation in the master process. So I want to say part of what I was doing was to sort assassin but he never called me out on it which was kind of disappointing.

I figured if his assertion was accurate then scum wouldn't really shuffle the board themselves but Assassin being on the money would likely force them to master someone less able to connect the dots. So I picked Caster to offer as a viable alternate option.

I was mostly interested in your thoughts on rider / foreigner since that's who bit on Caster being viable. I'm not sure if foreigner followed up on their analysis of anti-assassin wagon slots that they used to explain their vote but I'll read through day start in a bit.

I'm thinking the pivot to assassin might just be a play to avoid making an enemy of assassin who would be easier to appease for two days and then get rid of than have him as a likely non lynchable variable.

With that said id agree there is a degree of coordination involved in Assassin being mastered and I would have given Archer a ton of points if they stuck to Avenger. Avenger comes out looking really townie by virtue of his static wagon I believe.

That's a good question. Foreigner said it was because Assassin didn't want it.
Part of it might be that Rider and Caster merely got the cold shoulder from assassin.

I voted Caster because I thought I could talk Berserker, Alter Ego, and Foreigner into swapping over and ending this interminable phase, not because my townread on Assassin dipped. Sadly, this did not work out. However, I have no reason to go back to Assassin because that wagon now looks dead.

I'm hesitant to group Rider with foreigner with this in mind. But I also don't get Riders movement if he felt Caster was town enough to vote over assassin but assassin was also town. Barring any eod shenanigans with Avenger (opposed to mastering Avenger) then it's a 50/50 between his two townreads OR more likely Berserker converts to Caster to avoid Assassin getting the upgrade.