FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Archer]

Berserker is being given way too much credit for their entrance. A savvy scum player could very easily see from their fake claim PMs that ramming that angle as hard as possible would get them townread.

What do you think about how Berserker was defending Shielder?

[Servant Assassin]

Berserker is being given way too much credit for their entrance. A savvy scum player could very easily see from their fake claim PMs that ramming that angle as hard as possible would get them townread.

I've been thinking about that for the last hour or so and came to the exact opposite conclusion.

And I only just realised I've been thinking about the master-upgrade mechanic entirely incorrectly for most of the game lol. I've been operating internally on the assumption of chain upgrades being a thing (even though I distinctly recall Assassin / Rider bringing up that this wasn't the case, it never really clicked for me until I started thinking about Ruler v1's first post).

I have just confirmed that there are no chains, for the record. This will influence my approach. However, you are all beautiful and lovely and I wish I could give all of you a gift, even the baddies whom it is my job to kill. Having to play favorites will hurt my heart.

[Servant Beast]

What's it like being invisible Beast?

Oh, it's alright. Cabd gave me this unique avatar.

Pretty neat. What's it do?

Let's people know I'm a unique butterfly in their world of plain gold. No one noticed it though.

Shame...

Expressions of envy are kinda gauche, though.

Where's your head at regarding the exciting finale to the master phase?

Concerning myself, not feeling great about being wrong. Concerning the way people finished that wagon, avenger's hammer was maybe not the towniest thing but I still feel good about his slot. If I continue to view Archer as the scum I believe he is, I think his vote which seemed to shift the momentum a bit, could be motivated by a desire to give master to the person who didn't want it because they read that as the person with a weaker power. Avenger was flat out saying at the time his power was the cats pajamas so they wouldn't want to give it to him of course. (This theory assumes an Avenger town alignment).


What are your thoughts on shielders request to be spared until second elim?


Side note: I've only just caught on to the L word being a no no word now, I was confused earlier but I get it now. Sorry if I slip on it any further after this.

[Servant Alter Ego]

What's it like being invisible Beast?

Oh, it's alright. Cabd gave me this unique avatar.

Pretty neat. What's it do?

Let's people know I'm a unique butterfly in their world of plain gold. No one noticed it though.

Shame...

Expressions of envy are kinda gauche, though.

Where's your head at regarding the exciting finale to the master phase?

Concerning myself, not feeling great about being wrong. Concerning the way people finished that wagon, avenger's hammer was maybe not the towniest thing but I still feel good about his slot. If I continue to view Archer as the scum I believe he is, I think his vote which seemed to shift the momentum a bit, could be motivated by a desire to give master to the person who didn't want it because they read that as the person with a weaker power. Avenger was flat out saying at the time his power was the cats pajamas so they wouldn't want to give it to him of course. (This theory assumes an Avenger town alignment).


What are your thoughts on shielders request to be spared until second elim?


Side note: I've only just caught on to the L word being a no no word now, I was confused earlier but I get it now. Sorry if I slip on it any further after this.

It makes me twitch more than I probably would in a game that doesn't hint at many strange mechanics.

[Servant Rider]

I'll be on for about an hour. Tomorrow I won't be able to look at this for most of the day, if not all of it. If you have questions for me, or want me to look at something, now is the time.

[Servant Beast]

What's it like being invisible Beast?

Oh, it's alright. Cabd gave me this unique avatar.

Pretty neat. What's it do?

Let's people know I'm a unique butterfly in their world of plain gold. No one noticed it though.

Shame...

Expressions of envy are kinda gauche, though.

Where's your head at regarding the exciting finale to the master phase?

Concerning myself, not feeling great about being wrong. Concerning the way people finished that wagon, avenger's hammer was maybe not the towniest thing but I still feel good about his slot. If I continue to view Archer as the scum I believe he is, I think his vote which seemed to shift the momentum a bit, could be motivated by a desire to give master to the person who didn't want it because they read that as the person with a weaker power. Avenger was flat out saying at the time his power was the cats pajamas so they wouldn't want to give it to him of course. (This theory assumes an Avenger town alignment).


What are your thoughts on shielders request to be spared until second elim?


Side note: I've only just caught on to the L word being a no no word now, I was confused earlier but I get it now. Sorry if I slip on it any further after this.

It makes me twitch more than I probably would in a game that doesn't hint at many

strange mechanics

.

lol, that's putting it mildly.

I should have prefaced the question with I am willing to give him that half day. Don't want to give the impression I was feeling out the way the wind is blowing. As much as I enjoy mechanic theorizing, I'm pretty sure cabd isn't going to screw us over with a scum power that is somehow more beneficial if eliminated second in the day.

[Servant Assassin]

And, speaking of data...I bring you:

data

!



I was almost going to fire off a post with a chart this morning, but I am glad I put it off as beast joined us to contribute and that's one more set of data points to draw from. The rows represent the player answering, the column is the player being given a read on. The thicker dividing line separates berserker, who I consider close enough to have given "in the moment" reads, from everyone who answered after the fact, making their reads (theoretically) more composed. I do not know if this will ever be meaningfully relevant, but I included it as a reference just in case. We do not have answers from Ruler (who is still catching up, and I respect that, although they are welcome to try to do their own still if they feel like it) and Moon Cancer (who remains a beautiful enigma to all of us and I wouldn't have it any other way). That is all right, this is more than plenty to work with.

FIRST, A DISCLAIMER:

The purpose of this chart is not to form a consensus or dictate elimination targets. It's simply information for us to reference and draw conclusions from, that also provides a record we can look back on in the future.

I would like to make note of a few things that stood out to me while assembling this chart:

• Despite all the hemming and hawing from various individuals during the day phase yesterday, Avenger finds himself a consensus townread (I am sure someone will yell at me for pointing this out, but this was all out in the open, anyone could have made this chart). I am curious as to how much people's trepidation around him was real, as this seems an abrupt shift in public opinion.
  
  Avenger, bless his heart, does not reciprocate the trust in him, rating as the most paranoid player with 6 scumreads. I think the total number of reads fits with his play, and paranoia tends to be more likely to come from townies (though not always). This is good reason to agree with the public opinion on Avenger.
  
  Perhaps the most surprising thing to me was that Beast is only scumread by 2 players. I thought having her as a townread was spicy, but it is in fact very mild. I would expect that a poster who has provided little in the way of content would be a prime target for mafia, but there is little interest in her at the moment and while I'm sure this makes her feel lonely, at least 2 mafia answered this and it might mean she is not seen as a viable push.

I could make a few other observations, but some I want to hold onto for the time being and I don't really want to spend

too

much time discussing every townread I agree with. Feel free to provide commentary of your own. If anyone has anything they would like to discuss, feel free to do so. I will have more to say in a little while.

[Servant Rider]

I think your Total T and Total S columns on the right are backwards (or at least the values in them are).

I also find it interesting the number of people townreading me, I'd swear there were more yesterday. I'll look into it.

[Servant Avenger]

I have to submit this soon. Did we decide yet? Or do you guys just want assassin to pick one.

[Servant Archer]

I don't think there is consensus, but don't you have around 22 hours left?

[Servant Avenger]

Oh, has it? Eliminations can be derailed though.
I'm not really looking for consensus, that would be kinda silly.

[Servant Avenger]

VOTE: Archer
Doot

[Servant Archer]

Well yeah, but we haven't really even have had any serious wagons yet besides maybe Shielder. The most likely option seems to be Assassin commanding an elim, if he wants you to get buffed.
pedit:

[Servant Avenger]

It's good to see I'm a universal town read.
Can you imagine if I wasn't.
That would be awful.

[Servant Assassin]

God damn it, all that time doing fancy formatting and I fuck up something so basic. My shame is endless.

I have to submit this soon. Did we decide yet? Or do you guys just want assassin to pick one.

Discussion in that direction has not been as eventful as I'd have hoped, but I do have a thought on who I want to go first. I don't want to just be the emperor giving the thumbs down, though. I will be making a case and presenting it and people can tell me if they think it's good or not. I dunno if your own timetable requires me to just throw a name out there, though, rather than taking the time to compose everything.

[Servant Avenger]

Are you the designated miselimination Archer?
Why aren't you mafia this game? if you don't mind me asking.

[Servant Avenger]

Archer is probably right about how long I have left. We have 20 hours.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I should have prefaced the question with I am willing to give him that half day. Don't want to give the impression I was feeling out the way the wind is blowing. As much as I enjoy mechanic theorizing, I'm pretty sure cabd isn't going to screw us over with a scum power that is somehow more beneficial if eliminated second in the day.

Probably, but there's only one game day where there's a "second in the day", so if some hypothetical ability resolves in twilight, what would happen if the elimination happened in the middle of the day?

Anyway, regardless of alignment, wanting more time to naturally just do town stuff and get townread for it is motivation enough for asking to go second, I guess. Maybe.

~adjusts tinfoil hat to a jaunty angle~

[Servant Caster]

is it weird that this makes me feel more okay with an archer vote i feel like it should be less

[Servant Avenger]

It is kinda weird.
It depends of your opinion on the scum team.
Is he the bus?
Or is shielder?

[Servant Avenger]

Or is it ruler, etc.
Or are none of them busses and the team is infact, Beserker, Alterego, Foreigner and assassin who cabd accidentally misread.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I missed it if people have talked about it, but are the reasons that people other than Shielder have given for why Caster is a scum read?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

It's amusing that the only person with a town read on Archer is being scum-read by Archer.

[Servant Avenger]

Okay I'm good with Caster winning the vote too.

My preference is

Avenger
Caster
Berseker
...
I don't have other preferences, I would only place votes in those 3, in that order.

I'm Up on Moon, Rider and Shielder.

I'm down on Caster and Archer.

1. Shielder
2. Saber
3. Archer
4. Lancer
5. Rider
6. Caster
7. Assassin
8. Berserker
9. Ruler
10. Avenger
11. Moon Cancer
12. Alter Ego
13. Foreigner
14. Beast

Avenger
Moon
Rider
Shielder
Saber (I have felt bad about them... but some of their posts feel really good? This is gonna be a gut read I flucuate on I bet...)
Ruler (Feels Good Man)

----
In no Order
Foreigner
Alter Ego
Archer
Assassin
Caster (Ugh, this one I'm back and forth on too. I have a strong town read on them because of a gut thing I felt and saw and it was so chefs kiss good. But these last pages and everything around them are souring me. I think... I'll just put them down here and reevaluate later, ezpz.)
-----------------

No fucking Idea:

Beast
Lancer

Remind me to read (or someone takl to me) about Beast and Lancer.

Berserker is successfully wigging me out a little.

I'm wigging you out? For not wanting to have someone I think is scum win?

lol?

She Took a dive in reads on caster when Caster and Alter disapproved of calling rider scum. Never recovered. Mentioned that caster had made some posts that reduced or weirded her out a little a little bit before deadline and did not elaborate.

[Servant Alter Ego]

It's amusing that the only person with a town read on Archer is being scum-read by Archer.

Are you interested in sharing thoughts about Ruler?