Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Tayl0r Swift]

catboi has done nothing sus this whole game that I've seen, and any association-based reads would be formed by negative space, making them not very strong. Plausible, technically, but not strong.

isn't the whole point of being mafia to not do anything suspicious?

i think this is only true if youre playing scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Do you think "not doing anything suspicious" and "playing it safe" are enough to town-read a player?

[redtea]

the thing is Tanner I feel like either lavender or taylor swift could fill that role of no associations.
I suppose it makes sense to give up as NotChara once town locks onto genocide route, since immediately is almost a given, but since both were absent from the beginning (and one still is)...
Like, Town historically doesn't take kindly to lurkers. I could see that being the first strategy to come to mind, yeah, but it's also extremely shallow. It doesn't hold up.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like if you read Catboi's ISO.

His push on me is extremely shallow - and he doesn't really take the time or effort to try to figure me out or figure out if my slot is scum - it's just a push for ML without any real thought behind it.

While Tanner actually engages me in conversation in trying to convince me 4Spare is a bad idea - Catboi's faith IMO feels much shadier. I will do a full ISO recap of Catboi so far this game and another ISO with foccus on his posts regarding me to show you what I mean.

[redtea]

........
Okay okay. Catboi has given me reasons to tr him. He hasn't not given me any counteracting maf-y hints. It's that easy yo.

Pooky, almost

everyone

was sus of you/pushing you.

[Tayl0r Swift]

the thing is Tanner I feel like either lavender or taylor swift could fill that role of no associations.
I suppose it makes sense to give up as NotChara once town locks onto genocide route, since immediately is almost a given, but since both were absent from the beginning (and one still is)...
Like, Town historically doesn't take kindly to lurkers. I could see that being the first strategy to come to mind, yeah, but it's also extremely shallow. It doesn't hold up.

i would associate with you

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

........
Okay okay. Catboi has given me reasons to tr him. He hasn't not given me any counteracting maf-y hints. It's that easy yo.

Pooky, almost

everyone

was sus of you/pushing you.

Redtea,

Why is everyone sus of me/pushing me?

Is it because I wanted to do 4Spare?

Or is it because I'm LHF for scum to push?

Let's try to do some reasoning.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like if anyone can actually present a decent case on me I'm happy to defend myself. Right now all I see is "let's kill Pooky cuz he wanted to do something fun and go for 4 spares"

It's kind of a dumb reason to vote somebody out but if you guys want to play that way then *shrug*.

[Tayl0r Swift]

hot take: pooky is town

[Lavender]

I’m so tired dear lord, I roughly skimmed and I ugh.
I’ve already tried to write this 5 times my mind is scattered right now.
I remember someone asking why I unvoted where I unvoted, short reason, indecisive.

Okay I’m just going to get some sleep, see if I can do some thing in the morning

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

This post is going to be rather long. It's an ISO of every catboi post in which in mentions me and I will analyze each of them and show you why these posts are not done from a townie-perspective. Many of you will feel tempted to skip this post because it is rather long but I think there is some important stuff in here especially if you are deciding to use me as a D1-lynch. I am happy to address any of the points I raised that you think are unfair to catboi.

My sense of feeling of Catboi's "push" on me is that it is not done in good faith - he doesn't really put in the effort to try to sort out whether I am town or scum, and it's mostly base level shading on a very shallow thought process. I have gone over Catboi's entire ISO and picked out every post he made that is addressed to me or at my guilt/innocence.

Most of it is not done from a town-perspective because it's not about trying to figure out my alignment - it is done with the intention of pushing an LHF town-lynch.

Below is my analysis of each of catboi's posts targetting me and you are free to look over his ISO and come to your own conclusions:

what if... the scumteam was... exactly taylor/lavender/pooky .. aha ha, just kidding.. unless.. ?

pooky and lavender have decent chance, taylor being standoffish in an antagonistic way is mayyybe town? lavender probably doesn't know how to fake it and pooky is riding the spare thing way too hard

This is the first post in which Catboi "suspects" me - his basis is that I am riding "spare" way too hard - hence I am scum.

On surface level this is a very weak line of attack because he doesn't really explain the

why

behind it.

On an EV-probability basis - 4Spare is worse than 4Fight given random lynches - however we are playing a game - the lynches will not be random - if his argument is that Pooky is scum because Pooky is trying to push for 4Spare - it doesn't quite make sense if you consider that most of the town is

against

4-spare as a strategy - he doesn't bother to consider the meta-game of whether a scum player would push for 4spare in the game-state where people are mostly against the strategy - does it really make sense for scum to stand out on D1 in a mountainous game with no other leads to push for a sub-optimal strategy?

Rather than trying to ask me questions directly about why I prefer 4-Spare to figure out my mind-state for pushing it - he just directly shades me for the plan.


This is Catboi's next post shading me:

pooky:
Fuck if I know. 387 bothers me a little because, like, if hectic is good as scum how does following the spare route actually help? His whole game here of just trying to push toward the spare route while offering nothing else is certainly suspect.

Again, his mindset here is focused attacking me rather than asking me what my thoughts are - I think this is a very anti-town mindset to have. If my post bothered him, why not simply just ask me at the time what my reasoning or plan is ? Why instead just use it to be like ooh this guy is suspicious? Mafia is a game about dialogue and it doesn't seem like Catboi is really interested in it.

Why are you assuming he wouldn't get spared, though? This doesn't follow at all unless you'd have a large number of players you're more confident a town than hectic and I don't feel that impression here.

This is the first question he directly addresses to me - in response to me going at him for his earlier shade. It's actually very subtle what he does here, because I've addressed his original question of why Hectic-scum would not have to be dealt with in the spare-scenario versus the fight-scenario but now he changes his question to whether Hectic would be spared and then have to be fought.

Here's why this response doesn't make sense from a town-player;

My response directly addresses his question about why Hectic-Scum is not as scary in a Spare-Game versus a Fight-Game, because the possibility exists where we can win the game without fighting Hectic-Scum. In the Fight-Game, if Hectic is scum, we basically have to flip his slot to win the game as he is Mafia. That is a difference between the two games. But now he's shifted the goalpost to "well what if Hectic-scum gets spared?" - in the Spare Game, it's not necesary that Hectic-Scum would get spared in the first place, hence it's not a given that you would have to flip Hectic-Scum, but even IF Hectic-scum did get spared and you'd have to flip him, you would also have to do the same in the fight-game to begin with.


***DRUMROLL***



This next Post is where Catboi votes me :

In all seriousness, hadn't decided on who I actually wanted to vote.

The more I think about it, the more I think I'm with you on pooky.

HURT: PookyTheMagicalBear

This post is a real doozy and for many reasons.

First do you notice anything missing in the post?

He doesn't mention that he thinks I'm scum - this is a bit of a slip here because the proper mind-frame of a town HURT: vote at that stage of the game when we are not really going for pressure but for actual killing, is "I decided Player XXX is a bad guy, so I'm voting to flip his card" That's not Catboi's mind-frame in this vote, there's a subtle push of responsibility of the vote towards Hectic - "I'm with YOU", he's subtly shifting the responsibility of the Pooky-Mislynch onto Hectic because when Pooky flips town, it's not Catboi's fault, he was simply following Hectic! This is kind of a huge-tell that Catboi knows when he casts his vote that I am town, he doesn't directly state his belief of me flipping scum but instead implies that his vote is because of Hectic! Which is doubly wierd since he had already spent 3 posts previously shading me in the first place.

A real townie making this push should've been like "I'm voting Pooky because of A, B and C or whatever reasons he wants to come up with. But instead he's just saying to Hectic "I'm with you"

What makes this even more strange is that Catboi doesn't elaborate in this post exactly what Hectic has said previously about Pooky to have convinced him to go with him to push Pooky for the D1-kill.


His next post regarding Pooky is :

IYO, does this look like coalition pooky? Because it feels like a similar approach.

Which is just another shade-throw about me in another game I was scum in. This is one of those posts used by scum to frame suspicion- notice here that he doesn't explain why he thinks my play here is similar to coalition - only trying to get others to find the clue so they can think "hmm Pooky is playing like scum like he was in coalition".

If my play here actually reminded catboi of coalition - he would've actually posted the similarities like "Pooky did ____ in coalition and he did the same thing here ____"

That would be something I could address - instead it's just shade that is completely unsubstantiated and I can't really answer since I have no idea what the heck he's talking about.


Here he clarifies:

Just, the overall chummy hey guys let's have fun and pick the town attitude, the lack of real serious commentary or attempting to sort people. Honestly his whole last couple page of posting makes my skin crawl.

It's strange that he chooses now to shade me for trying to be nice. but I will address why my playstyle in this game has been this way:

I had just completed Mini 960 about a week before this game started:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=83833

It was probably one of the most brutal games I've ever taken part in. The last day was absolutely exhausting and the fight felt like it was quite real from day 1, I had almost been mislynched on the first day of D1 and I spent most of the game being lynchbait for reasons I'd rather not discuss. On the last day of the game I wrote something like 500 posts defending myself as I dangled somewhere between certain death and a glimmer of hope and I was so exhausted by the end I just wanted to take a break from scumhunting.

But I was pretty excited for ISIS's game, the setup looked very interesting and I wanted to try to have less fighting and be nicer - one of the most common feedback I got after 960 was that I was simply too antagonistic and emotionally invested into the outcome so I decided to tone things down and post some cute gifs.

That's mostly the reason why I've been more of a pacifist and less aggressive. I didn't think it would make your "skin crawl" but I'm explaining my viewpoint and why I've chosen to play the way that I have.

I see pooky has changed his tune and started spouting BS when he finally faced real pressure, who could have seen that coming? (me)

This is simply more shade and here I just kind of lose it and demand a flip and flip because I've had enough of Catboi's non-specific shading. Notice here he doesn't really say exactly what I am "spouting" that is "bs" it's just general shade in my general direction.

The reason this is more likely to come from scum pushing an LHF mislynch is because its basically an unfair attack - it doesn't come from a "solving perspective" if he believes what I am saying is "BS" he would be actually asking questions about the "BS" to understand my viewpoint, instead it's just more general attacks.

He simply has no interest in figuring out whether I am town or scum and it seems like a goal of his to mislynch me for whatever reason - am I 100% sure he's doing it because he's scum trying to push LHF? Nope, he could just as easily be doing this as a lazy-town player playing badly - however I think it should be clear that his content directed at me is not really in an effort to solve my alignment, but really just to shade me for the easy LHF D1 push.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Okay okay. Catboi has given me reasons to tr him.

sure,

give me your

best

reason to TR Catboi.

[redtea]

this dude just wrote a whole-ass wall of china

[Morning Tweet]

what the fuck

[catboi]

I also didn't want to nip the townreads on us for mech in the bud too early, I really wanted the content/reactions-and I think redtea's validates this-but now I'm fine saying I think we both out the strat here as scum as long as one of us is town

Lol, probably. Although I don't know that I'd go to the extent of arguing that I would.

lol

my style is to ask questions and try to do it in a neutral way, because i like seeing how people respond when you don't cue them exactly how you want them to respond. like, if you warn someone "im probing you" before you probe them you get a different response than if you don't. fyi. i think some people misread me when i do this

also i wanted hectic to elaborate more than he did. i still feel like he shoudl feel townier than he does, so i'm kind of null on the slot. (maybe it's just the posting gimmick? i admit the pictures do get me to at least read what he says)

I recall talking with a friend over your alignment in a game we were spectating. He was extremely confident you were town while you were basically a coinflip to me. I will accept that it is possible your style is just one that is difficult for me to read.

As for Hectic, I feel comfortable enough now to say he has said things I like, as well as some I do not like. I do not have a definite conclusion on him, but I would say my misgivings are relatively minor right now.

[catboi]

I see that pooky made A Post, but I suspect he is just trying to push back and bury me in WIM, which is about in line with my expectation. Still catching up, will respond to his earlier question but I am not going to bog the game down in tedium.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I see that pooky made A Post, but I suspect he is just trying to push back and bury me in WIM, which is about in line with my expectation. Still catching up, will respond to his earlier question but I am not going to bog the game down in tedium.

This is yet another example of catboi not really engaging in good faith or actually trying to solve my alignment.

[redtea]

While I feel like I've been talking about catboi all day and would rather not continue to do so, I'll read your take thoroughly and respond tomorrow Pooky.
Also: the case against you is that you pushed for a strategy that is most helpful to maf wincon. It doesn't help you've been playing like you're jester til now. It really is that simple.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

While I feel like I've been talking about catboi all day and would rather not continue to do so, I'll read your take thoroughly and respond tomorrow Pooky.
Also: the case against you is that you pushed for a strategy that is most helpful to maf wincon. It doesn't help you've been playing like you're jester til now. It really is that simple.

1. You have not replied to me about what your best reason to TR catboi is.

2. That case is silly and surface level wrong. If pushing for 4-spare is scummy, it would make no sense for a scum player to push for 4-spare and draw attention to themselves that way.

Also the pure-probability case against 4-spare ignores town-reads vs scum-reads and treats implied probability as random - which we know in game it is not. We are not "rolling dice" when we flip a player's card - if we were this entire game would be pointless.

[Morning Tweet]

They didn't say pushing for 4 spare is scummy. They said the 4-spare plan is one that benefits scum. And you were pushing it.

Scum wouldn't start the game knowing by default that pushing for 4 spare is scummy. They might know secretly that it helps scum the most, but that doesn't mean they aren't going to try and push it for ulterior motives

now im not saying thats what you're doing, idk. and tbh it's going to be a whole ordeal figuring that out when i dive into the whole catboi v pooky thing

I will say that I can very conceivably see you pushing for 4 spare, knowing fully well it is suboptimal, as town, just for the 'fun' factor

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

im getting 22% odds for winning with 4 spare

Nope I calculated here. But those are pure-probability odds and not the actual odds given town-reads/skilled play. We aren't rolling dice when we play a game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like it's trivial to calculate the pure-probability odds of each path. but we're not playing a game to roll dice - this is a social interaction game.

If the case against me boils down to "he pushed a sub-optimal win path according to pure-probability distributions" and you don't actually look at posting/meta or think about whether I would even be doing this as scum - then it's just kind of weak play from town here.

[catboi]

like it's trivial to calculate the pure-probability odds of each path. but we're not playing a game to roll dice - this is a social interaction game.

And how did you attempt to generate social interactions prior to the point I started attacking you?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the case against you is that you pushed for a strategy that is most helpful to maf wincon.

So Pooky-scum decided to calculate the odds of 4-spare. posted them in the boards. Then spend his time pushing the 4-spare path that not really anyone wanted to do.

And the reason Pooky-Scum did this was so he could win the award of getting exec'd on Day 1.

I mean is this really what you believe?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like it's trivial to calculate the pure-probability odds of each path. but we're not playing a game to roll dice - this is a social interaction game.

And how did you attempt to generate social interactions prior to the point I started attacking you?

Can you please state your case against me ?