OK before I get into pure scumhunting I wanted one more post where I run down mathematical and night action based reasons for excluding (or leaning less intensely on ) certain players today.
will not lynch:
TheHermit/TSPN
-He is dead tonight without protection. If IAUN wants to mess with the SK by using his Jailkeep that's fine by me, but I see no reason for the town to pursue his lynch at this point as TheHermit's death is assured tonight and we'd be clearly wasting a lynch if we use it on TheHermit/TSPN.
should not lynch:
Rishi
-Given Rishi's night action is confirmed he clearly was not the mafia "killer" last night. This gives him ~1/3rd less chance of being scum than any other player (correct my math if wrong). Also as stated above a Rishi/Twomz scumpair targeting the Tracker is really not an ideal situation. I think of the confirmed night action players he is most likely not mafia.
iamusername
-Unless mafia are playing shenanigans with their night kills, iamusername is not mafia. Since, he had no way of predicting Twomz would turn up dead, it would be very unlikely IAUN would no-kill, because doing such only proves him to not be mafia if Twomz turns up dead. Thus I find it only possible that IAUN is mafia if the kill was somehow not submitted. This is highly unlikely as IAUN was tracked by CyberBob to his night choice. As such IAUN is 50% less likely than any other player to be scum, and I don't think a good lynch.
low probability lynch:
armlx
-armlx has a confirmed night action. Thus he is ~1/3rd less likely to be scum than an "average" player. However, him being a vig, I cannot see armlxscum not using his night action. Thus I weigh this less than Rishi's confirmed night action. However, I do not think an armlx lynch should be considered today.
OK so who should we be considering. Let's look back quickly at the lynching vote count:
curiouskarmadog wrote:Pug89 - 7 (M4yhem, Rishi, Twomz, Claus, Alabaska J, armlx)
Alabaska J - 5 (NabakovNabakovob, shafted, iamausername, Pug89, Cyberbob)
Not Voting: TheHermit
We see Twomz was bus'ing. I don't think Mayhem would be double bus'ing his partner, so I don't suspect him for mafia at this juncture. Claus has been fairly pro-town thus far and I do not suspect at this juncture. I'm not a fan of Alabaska, and it is possible he went for a bus with Twomz since his only lynch was the only other viable option. Rishi and armlx are a part of the less likely group. So that leaves only Alabaska amongst the Pug voters.
On the other wagon there is me, Nab and CyberBob. I've already admitted there are a list of examples where I have defended both dead scum. I completely understand that I am a viable lynch today from an outside viewpoint. I've already previously stated that I don't like CyberBob's night actions. Between a Tracker and a Watcher it is more likely that the Tracker would make the NK, since he can fake claim an investigation as long as he doesn't have to claim first. I'm really not liking his tracking of armlx, as it was posted for the world to see, and his target was advertised before the night even began. I'm also not liking Nab's excuse for not picking up Pug's role last night. It seems after the public diminishment of the Inventor's utility, Nab had an excuse not to pick up the role, and thus the watcher would not have to fakeclaim. However, many players made the same mistake so I'm not sure this holds.
Anyway I think the lynch today should be between me, Alabaska, NabNab and CyberBob. I'm not saying we should only focus on these players, but I think this is where we should end up at days end.
