Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Hectic]

-puppy, and this one was less cute.

[Hectic]

1 SPARE/3 FIGHTs has a lot of utility over 4 FIGHTs in a timeline where we FIGHT 4 town in a row, because that results in a loss
but i don't think we'll do that and it's likely we get 1 scum in the first 3, which would then make the 4 FIGHT benefit actually superior to the 3 FIGHT/1 SPARE one
i think Ele has good odds of flipping scum, the interaction i pointed out earlier is very reminiscent of this one:

never mind, i was going to post the exchange leading up to the vote here, but it's not actually too similar

i wish i knew how to calculate the EV for 1 SPARE/3 FIGHT
in a worst case scenario it's certainly better than 4 FIGHTs, i think i'm already changing my mind on what's optimal
i think it's fair to say that mafia win a fair amount of the time with sweeps and losing no members
it gets easier and easier to control the gamestate as you hold a larger percentage of the slots
so maybe that's what we should be playing around and going with 1 SPARE to prevent that?

i think Morning is strongly town and we should be SPARING her today
then, if we FIGHT town 3 times, we'll still get 2 cop checks and still have a great chance of recovering the game
otherwise, if we FIGHT 1 scum/2 town, we'll only get 1 cop check but i think this disadvantage is worth voiding the risk of losing to 4 misFIGHTs
also of course there's the day 5 clause if no mafia is fought then but that's very unlikely and is also dependent on Morning being scum (highly unlikely)

HEAL: Morning Tweet
^^^^^^^^^^^^this is the play, pals

[CantHateAPuppy]

-puppy, and this one was less cute.

Spoiler:

[Tanner]

...who's gonna tell him?

[CantHateAPuppy]

not it

[Hectic]

-puppy, and this one was less cute.

Spoiler:

[Hectic]

...who's gonna tell him?

[Tanner]

NotChara doesn't flip when going 1spare>3fights.

[Hectic]

[Tayl0r Swift]

catboi is my top scumread fwiw. i also dislike hectic for pushing a spare today, after everything else we've talked about re sparing/fighting.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm not sure why you would go spare -> 3 fight rather than fight -> spare -> fight x 2

early fight would remove the chara threat and I don't see any gain for town-side to do spare first then fight?

[Hectic]

[Hectic]

catboi is my top scumread fwiw. i also dislike hectic for pushing a spare today, after everything else we've talked about re sparing/fighting.

-about something?

[Tayl0r Swift]

i kinda think it would be hard to forget after fucking 25 pages of this nonsense. but its not a sure thing, so you get a scumpoint but im not voting for you. also heya

[Hectic]

[CantHateAPuppy]

the scum motivation is arguing for spares, and then when it doesn't gain traction, u can pretend u were just forgetful and of course u're for the good pro-town option. not sure whether that's what u'd do or not though. having a hard time reading ur slot this game

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if the scum motivation is hoping that the town suffers from mass-amnesia about the game its pretty dumb lol

[Hectic]

worse than FIGHT>SPARE>FIGHT>FIGHT
you think scum!me could think there's any chance that would instantly not be shot down?

[Morning Tweet]

tbh i totally forgot about that clause cause i just simplified it to "Not Chara dies if we fight a townie"

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i forgot that clause too

i was just talking about how it makes no sense to risk chara getting spared when we can get rid of it by fighting first lol

[Prism]

Alright, I'll be in to catch up later tonight.

Before that:

1) Pooky-how are you feeling atm on Hectic? Ctrl+Fing your ISO it looks like you mentioned being confident in your ability to read him earlier but not having enough yet-has anything changed? Skimming I saw just the spare/fight scum/town Hec hypotheticals so sorry if this is a repeat
2) catboi-are you still scumreading Pooky? I felt he might be overplaying the spare angle at first, he was 2/3 in my scumpool, but after he got more vehement it became more of a coinflip to me. I haven't read his case on you yet. Without really knowing his meta, it seems possible for the heavy hitting out of left field to be a reliable tool in an experienced player's arsenal. But what do you think?
3) Chara-where are you at friend?

[Prism]

[trimmed of the content I'm not focusing on]

i think Morning is strongly town and we should be SPARING her today

HEAL: Morning Tweet
^^^^^^^^^^^^this is the play, pals

This is really wack to me. At first I thought you forgetting was +town? But the more I think about this the weirder this is.

You haven't made the case for Morning town. You've said that you have a reliable towntell on them that you aren't going to out because it's too valuable. You haven't cited anything else that you would be willing to share.

There's no real attempt to get others to come around to Morning town and jump on this spare. The result is that this feels performative. I really don't like you this game.

[Prism]

I didn't addressed this earlier because I thought it was selfexplanatory but the push on Elements for memeing that you're town after he misread you 4 games in a row was also extremely puzzling. I get overplaying the hand here but like ??? this was not even something you mentioned, the background you gave was not nearly sufficient and seemed to be willfully missing a super important point.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

1) Pooky-how are you feeling atm on Hectic? Ctrl+Fing your ISO it looks like you mentioned being confident in your ability to read him earlier but not having enough yet-has anything changed? Skimming I saw just the spare/fight scum/town Hec hypotheticals so sorry if this is a repeat

I'm confident in my ability to read him as town when he's town but I haven't felt very town about him yet this game - I'm actually fairly suspicious of him this game but not to the point where I am going to push him.

[Hectic]

I didn't addressed this earlier because I thought it was selfexplanatory but the push on Elements for memeing that you're town after he misread you 4 games in a row was also extremely puzzling. I get overplaying the hand here but like ??? this was not even something you mentioned, the background you gave was not nearly sufficient and seemed to be willfully missing a super important point.

mentioning at the time. It felt a little off tonally and he was legitimately pushing for me to be SPARED alongside Pooky/himself, but without any reasoning I could see, especially for Pooky being town at the time.