Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Tayl0r Swift]

who do you think is scum now raya? and why

[callforjudgement]

Cfj bringing up vig so often is interesting, I'm not sure what to make of it but I don't think vig fits the setup. For that town would have FNN + Taylor as a presumed pr + protective/rb + town kp in a vig which is insanely townsided for at best 2 scum prs.

NM was a scum kill.

I was going to argue with this but after thinking about it a bit more, I think you may be right. If the hypothetical vig has more than 1 shot it'd need something like a scum roleblocker or doctor to balance, and that's a somewhat hideous setup that I don't think is likely. A 1-shot vig would fit (especially alongside a protective) but only if town has additional power somewhere (e.g. if Tayl0r's role is powerful or if there's an additional unclaimed power role); that might actually be a fairly elegant setup (if the scum kill is stopped N1, then town buys an extra day but the vig is unconfirmed, so it's self-balancing to some degree).

[Tayl0r Swift]

my role is not powerful so im assuming theres other town power out there of sorts.

[Gamma Emerald]

If it’s a one shot vig would it be okay if they claimed?

[callforjudgement]

If a town power role is out of shots, normally the only reasons not to claim are a) that you want scum to fear you have more and waste a nightkill on you, or b) that you think you can confirm yourself via describing your previous night actions (generally speaking if you can confirm yourself, you want to leave that until the last minute because a confirmed townie late is more valuable than a confirmed townie early). As RCEnigma pointed out, a) is unlikely in this setup. b) may be a consideration, but there may be a lot of doubt about a vig claim if there wasn't actually an additional kill, in which case there'd be no reason to delay it.

[callforjudgement]

All this said, a reviewer-meta note: last time I put a 2-shot vig into a setup, mastina's estimate of its power was somewhat lower than the other reviewers'. The setup was modified during review and became Mini Normal 2148, which is now completed; the review isn't public. I don't know Nexus's or Datisi's opinions on the strength of a vig.

Even so, though, a 2-shot vig seems unlikely based on what we know about the setup, even if the reviewers underestimated its power (and unless the scum have a roleblocker, a D2 claim of a 2-shot vig doesn't hurt much because scum can't kill them fast enough to stop the second shot).

[Frogsterking]

Why are we revealing the extent of power town has available to them and who has it for the scum?

[Frogsterking]

It's not like you're discussing the mechanics of the setup, it's just laying out the options for the night kill.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ again

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: CFJ again

why is this scummy rather than anti-town?

[ItalianoVD]

Aren’t they mutually exclusive?

anti-town = selfvote
scummy = selfvote

anti-town=lolhammer/quickhammer
scummy = lolhammer/quickhammer

Unless I’m oversimplifying it?

[Tayl0r Swift]

anti-town things are things done by either alignment that work counter to town's interests. scummy things are things done by scum, or at least thats the implication. so my question is, why do you think thats coming from scum rather than just town doing a no-no

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ again

why is this scummy rather than anti-town?

I agree it's anti-town rather than scummy.

There are other reasons why I consider CFJ to be scummy, in short: he tried to pull the BW off of a confirmed scum player, he seemed frustrated after the scum player got lynched, and he posted an inauthentic looking town read on me in 1002.

If CFJ is supposed to be anti-town then I've been reading the slot wrong all game.

Posts like this toward the beginning of D1 caused me to read CFJ as pro-town (at least in communication, if not in decision-making) from the very beginning:

(PEDIT: re #58)

Why do you care about whether we're cultured, as opposed to whether we're scum? This is a Mafia game, not a classics exam. (Also, #4 doesn't have a single correct answer; Assyria no longer exists and its capital changed over time.)

There's only one town-indicative reason I can think of to make a post like #44, and if it were the actual reason, I'd expect you to have mentioned it.

As for your previous comment: I know I post a lot of text sometimes, but I'm trying to convince people to play in a more town-sided way. In the current metagame, town wins quite easily when townies put in effort, scum win quite easily when they don't. There are a lot of players out there (some of them in this game; hi Not_Mafia!) who are good players when they put their minds to it, but more commonly just end up passively floating through the game and eventually making everyone impossible to read. I therefore see trying to persuade people to get their brains into gear as important, as I'm unlikely to win otherwise.


PEDIT re #59: I believe we're out of RVS as soon as anyone posts anything that can be scumhunted from. We were out of RVS

before

my two posts, not

because of

them. That's why I didn't cast a random vote, and why I don't expect any more random voting in this game.

For a slot that approached the game as pro-town I'm seeing increasingly anti-town play from CFJ. This makes sense from a scum!CFJ perspective as he's now on D2 down one partner and failed to hit a PR N1 and still doesn't even know exactly what town has available to them (shelly failed to role phish before her death which I believe caused his frustration with her inactivity.)

For the reasons above, I'm reading these actions as aggressive scum play rather than merely anti-town because the progression of the game hasn't allowed CFJ to play pro-town because he would likely lose.

[ItalianoVD]

Well last time CFJ was on wagon it dissipated. I think the town is a little more sure of itself, at least I hope so.

VOTE: CFJ

[WaltertheDunce10]

I agree.
VOTE: CFJ

[Tayl0r Swift]

hmm ill compromise there at deadline if we havent solved by then

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t think that’s the right interpretation of of CFJ is doing at all? Am I failing to read between the lines here?

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 2.5

Looker(3)

~ Nosferatu(13), Gamma Emerald(24), callforjudgement(31)

callforjudgement(3)

~ Frogsterking(28), ItalianoVD(28), WaltertheDunce10(11)

RCEnigma(2)

~ Raya36(28), geraintm(13)

Raya36(2)

~ RCEnigma(20), Tayl0r Swift(41)

Frogsterking(1)

~ Looker(13)


Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-22 17:44:55)

[geraintm]

Quickbcheck in.
Thought: I still hate enigma, and the growth of various small co unterbwagons is interesting. I need to work out who is starting them and where they were on shellys wagon

[Looker]

I'm pushing you mostly because a) my vote on Gamma isn't doing much any more, with the game stalling (the Gamma wagon produced some good content but is unlikely to generate more), and b) you seem really disconnected with what's going on in the game more generally. In particular, I'd expect the self-vote in #994 to be more likely to come from scum than town; it doesn't make any sense to do intentionally as either alignment, but it seems more likely that scum would do it by mistake (as they aren't normally as invested in any particular read as a typical townie is; scum are more likely to forget who they're suspicious of than townies are).

On a more general note, do you normally consider defending players to be scummy behaviour in general? (I'm trying to understand your read on Raya.)


PEDIT: It takes me a while to write posts. (And I've been receiving quite enough / too much attention recently, which is why I was surprised that you apparently hadn't noticed at all.)

• Ok. Your vote's a reaction test.
  
• Just because I don't think you're important doesn't mean I'm disconnected from the game.
  
• Self-votes are NAI.
  • Also, with as much formatting as there is in my posts, surely I would've read an unintended vote and corrected it.
  • Also, also, what's the difference between your and Nosferatu's reaction test votes and my own
• I don't care who anyone defends; it was the hypocrisy and expressed contradiction that I wanted to emphasize. That and I disagree that I should be accepting unconfirmed claims blindly.

I agree.
VOTE: CFJ

I agree
VOTE: RCEnigma

[callforjudgement]

There are other reasons why I consider CFJ to be scummy, in short: he tried to pull the BW off of a confirmed scum player, he seemed frustrated after the scum player got lynched, and he posted an inauthentic looking town read on me in 1002.

I was frustrated with the scumflip D1. Obviously it's very helpful in terms of our win condition, but on the flipside of that, it doesn't make any sense (and nor does the nightkill). OK, so one scum was apparently unaware that this game was happening, which increases the chance that scum simply couldn't control the D1 voting (alternatively, one scum was intentionally avoiding the game, but that makes less sense rather than more). But even so, how often does it happen that scum end up getting voted out D1, when there's a viable counterwagon and many/most of the players on the wagon don't even think they're scum?

To me, scumhunting/townhunting is all about trying to figure out what everyone else is thinking. In a situation like this, I have no idea at all what scum were thinking, and that makes it very hard to work out what I should be looking for.


@

Frogster

: in terms of the "inauthentic townread", I've explained where my townread came from. Is there part of my reasoning that you specifically think can't/doesn't come from town? If so, which? I'm concerned that you think the read is inauthentic because you think I'm scum, rather than vice versa.

[callforjudgement]

And just to elaborate on why this is frustrating: "looks like all my reads were wrong, I need to re-evaluate" is one thing that often happens to townies and can be annoying for them; but in this case, it's more like "looks like all my assumptions about how people play Mafia are wrong". We're in a game where some players are/were intentionally obtuse about their actions (Not_Mafia, RCEnigma), and some players have an excessively reactive playstyle which makes them hard to read (geraintm, Nosferatu, even Walter to some extent), and (perhaps because of this) few players seem to have a strong read on anyone.

Just look at the shelly wagon, for example:

• Tayl0r Swift: Appears to have had a genuine (if mild) scumread on shelly, but didn't explain it D1 (the closest to an explanation is #690), and didn't really push it.
  
• Frogsterking: Recently claimed to have had a D1 scumread on shelly; this surprised me, because it wasn't apparent in his D1 posting (it's stated in #619 and #734 but without explanation, and was explained but weak in #488).
  
• Italiano: Deadline vote; apparent counterwagon vote to Walter, who Italiano was defending at every opportunity D1 (presumably due to getting a townread from the neighbourhood), rather than being due to a scumread on shelly.
  
• Walter: Cross-voting the counterwagon. Doesn't appear to have had a scumread on shelly.
  
• Nosferatu: Explicitly stated a townread on shelly, but disliked the composition of the Walter wagon.
  
• RCEnigma: Had already expressed a willingness to hammer either the shelly or Walter wagons (apparently primarily as a deadline scramble, but RCEnigma rarely explains anything); chose shelly after the Nosferatu vote, with a "+1" implying sheeping/agreeing with the reasoning.
  
• geraintm: Naked hammer vote. geraintm seemed to be interested in both the shelly and Walter wagons (going back and forth to some extent) but scumread shelly towards the end (#830).

Based purely on the apparent motivation behind the votes, what would you consider the possibility that shelly would flip scum? I'd put it as close to 0%; a wagon like this, with no apparent attempt by scum to stop it, would make me think that the target of the wagon was town purely based on the wagon composition and the way other people were reacting to the slot. The resulting scumflip, therefore, didn't make any sense.

(In fact, you can even scumhunt from this to some extent; I'd expect scum to think town would think "yay, shelly flipped scum!", whereas I think the more probable town reaction is along the lines of "huh, shelly flipped scum?", at least from someone who didn't have a scumread on shelly in the first place. This is one of the main arguments for Frogster as scum, due to #864, although he subsequently claimed that he had had an actual strong scumread on shelly and had simply forgotten to mention it.)


Side note that I found while reading this: I wonder if #574 was the reason for the Not_Mafia nightkill? To me this was an obvious fake guilty (especially given the context), but scum might have assumed that the choice of shelly's slot for the fake guilty was non-random in some way.

[callforjudgement]

VOTE: Walter

This is still the simplest explanation for what happened at the end of D1. I didn't have a strong scumread on Walter at the end of D1 (what weak scumread I had was primarily based on Italiano associatives that have now been explained), but his D2 play is somewhat concerning; it seems to have been intentionally trying to fly under the radar and soft-pushing wagons, without much of a read progression. (#1074 is fairly concerning, especially given the subsequent vote on me in #1114; it looks a lot like scum hedging because they aren't sure which wagons will take off and want to be in a position to push any of them.)

This reminds me: everyone has posted since #898. I'm wondering if we can learn anything about Italiano's Friendly Neighbour target from the fact that they haven't confirmed him yet. (In particular, I see no town motivation in refusing to / failing to confirm Italiano, whereas scum would obviously benefit from the uncertainty about Italiano's slot if his Friendly Neighbour action was on scum N1 and fails/is roleblocked N2. So I think the target in question is more likely than random to be scum.)

[callforjudgement]

Like, there's no theory reason to fail to confirm a claimed Friendly Neighbour as town. You aren't giving away anything about their role because they've claimed it, and you aren't giving away anything about your role other than that you aren't Ascetic. So it doesn't meaningfully help scum with their rolefishing at all.

[WaltertheDunce10]

I said maybe CFJ not yes. Really cfj because earlier I said that you were on my vote list and scum pool so my vote should not come as a surprise to you.
I agree with 1123.