Newbie 2027 | Doggos | Town Win

[Mundivore]

Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

[Mundivore]

I mean, Nikahang just voted for shelly over and over and never did anything else that game. It's possible for scum to do that, but it would be weird. I'd expect scum to do something more like Sirius did—lead with a vote on a scummate if it was a wagon, then hop to the freshest wagon. Sirius likes wagons so far, and in my experience that's a scum trait.

But my voting for you is not OMGUS. I've been sus of you since Day 1 lmao. I'm mostly voting just to see what happens, there are a couple of different reactions I'm interested in seeing.

Also, just gotta say, if I was scum:

1) I walk in and shelly has just made that crazy play. Why would I have pressured a kill on Plus so aggressively? It was probably completely unnecessary to get the kill (considering plus himself was angling for it) and ultimately got a lot more attention put on me. It's also debatable that it's

even better

for scum if I don't pressure you into making the kill and let you go the day without the kill happening. It puts the game into the same game-state (ultimately town still has wasted an elim, so scum still gets another night) except that now scum has more control over the outcome. Scum has more flexible options if there's no kill: they can NK plus to create the same game-state, we're currently in, or gamble on the set of possible night-actions to hope for a scenario where nobody receives Plus' night action to try to get shelly to live for another day

2) Frankly, the fact that the people who were NK'd were all people who FoS'd me at some point is NAI. I've seen scum try to use their NK's to frame people more often than I've seen them try to use them to eliminate critics. Think about it: the way scum wins is by getting them to waste their elims. There is no other victory condition for scum, that's just how the numbers play out. Every time town kills a townie, scum gets one more night. Every time town skips a vote and every other time after that, scum gets another night. Scum need three false elims to win in total.

Defensive NKs point a bunch of arrows towards you. It might reduce some day suspicion, but if someone notices, there's a decent chance the town tries to kill you. It puts you in the spotlight even if you successfully defend yourself in the daythread, and might force you to try to fakeclaim to stay alive, which often leads to a 50/50 which is quite bad for scum. Meanwhile, framing someone else with your NK's puts

them

in the spotlight, taking pressure off of you. It's especially effective if you don't draw attention to it, and see if someone else connects the dots to the person you're framing, although you can pull it out yourself to get the final miselim too. Basically, as scum, you don't want to be feeding townies lines that give them better odds of catching scum than elim'ing purely randomly, and playing often leads to that.

3) Let's say I am scum, and I am using my NK defensively. I'd rather kill 72 than Frogster: 72 also announced suspicion of me, and while Frogster FoS'd me Day 2, I seem to recall that he liked me Day 1. Not sure on that. Either way, 72 seems to have more of a proclivity towards tunneling on scum targets, and I was his sole scumread at that point. His initial suspicion of shelly was long and aggressive, and after the counterclaim nonsense he continued to think that Plus was scum. I think it's pretty clear that 72 and shelly can't have been scummates, so I definitely would have killed him night 2 if I hadn't on night 1.

I actually still think that the Sirius/shelly scumteam is a bit more plausible than the Noraa/shelly scumteam. I'm mostly just trying to get discussion rolling, and people tend to start replying when you vote for them. To that end,

VOTE: Sirius9121

What do you think about all this, huh?

This whole thing was low-key confusing to me. I have a hard time understanding where I fall into all this. I should prolly read it again and try to understand but dude nah right after this calc hw, I'm not feeling it. Can u like make it more obvious where I come into all this?

Mostly, I was defending myself. Didn't spend much time accusing you of anything. See the above post for the main reason that I'm sus of you.

[Noraa]

Dude ur likely scum. Pr wouldn't ever out day 2

[Noraa]

Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

I don't like your reasoning. So assuming that you are the pr, Redados is 100% town then just like I predicted. Sirius is not confirmed since if shelly could out herself day 1, god knows what other risky af things she would do.

[Noraa]

and that literally means ur choices are me, 72, and sirius. I am 99% convinced that if one of us is scum, it must be 72. Sirius has seemed more and more town to me which is why I think he's not scum. So it can only be 72. Also I'm unvoting unless someone cc's in which case my vote might be going back. But I'm not going to help kill a pr bc town desperately needs a leader. I'm fine with dying for town but the problem is that if I die today, tmrw you will have 2 less people on town's side and the stakes will be so much higher. I am not fine with that. UNVOTE: Mundivore

[Redados]

Acknowledged and my apologies.

No hard feelings.

Then again Echo also had the purest townie energy ... ever so that might be the reason behind that maybe?

IMO Echo was limmed because he was basically conftown and he wasn't going to get mislimmed. I don't think we're really going to get info out of that.

Honestly, I feel like I really don't understand why Echo was so confirmed town? I feel like I missed something, could you give me a run down for future reference?

He posted with no filter and I didn't feel like he was hiding anything. A bunch of people were also openly townreading him, which is a NK death sentence for a townie imo

[Redados]

Dude ur likely scum. Pr wouldn't ever out day 2

VOTE: Noraa
It's Day Three.

[Redados]

Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

Why did you push for PLUSjoy lim if you knew that ShellyC's claim was impossible?

[Noraa]

Dude ur likely scum. Pr wouldn't ever out day 2

VOTE: Noraa
It's Day Three.

Acknowledged and my apologies.

No hard feelings.

Then again Echo also had the purest townie energy ... ever so that might be the reason behind that maybe?

IMO Echo was limmed because he was basically conftown and he wasn't going to get mislimmed. I don't think we're really going to get info out of that.

Honestly, I feel like I really don't understand why Echo was so confirmed town? I feel like I missed something, could you give me a run down for future reference?

He posted with no filter and I didn't feel like he was hiding anything. A bunch of people were also openly townreading him, which is a NK death sentence for a townie imo

I agree but rn its day 3(I remembered wrong) and that means 3 votes is a hammer. I finally understand how plus must've felt but I feel like tbh rn the stakes r even higher.

[Redados]

I thought Sirius was the PR because he knew that Shelly was scum on day one. I thought they were either scum or PR. Knowing that they're not the PR makes them look a little more sketch because of the behavior that's already been outlined in addition to the fact that he refused to vote for either Shelly or PLUSjoy on day one.

[Redados]

Noraa why would you jump to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum after he outs when you can wait for a counterclaim? That was super sketch to just go "ur scum".

[Redados]

NORAA IS AT E-1 FYI

[Noraa]

I really am not sure what to say rn cuz I feel like it doesn't matter what I say, if people believe mundivore, they will eliminate me today. I mean yes I'm not that helpful, don't have the greatest reads, and prolly won't be able to live to the end of this game anyways. But town will be wasting a lim and tmrw the stakes will be even higher than today.

[Redados]

Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

Assuming no counter claim appears, I really like this logic. I think we should vote for Noraa today and Sirius tomorrow. I'm fine with taking an L to scum!72. I like this a lot and I look forward to seeing if there's a counterclaim.

I'll start. When I claimed to be the town friendly neighbor in post 1410, I was

lying

. I'm a vanilla townie and I do not counterclaim.

[Redados]

NORAA IS AT E-1 FYI

No one should hammer until we give everyone a chance to counterclaim.

[Noraa]

Noraa why would you jump to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum after he outs when you can wait for a counterclaim? That was super sketch to just go "ur scum".

bc I feel like at a time like this, our pr would think more carefully. Ig its just cuz when you are the one getting limmed and you know very clearly that u r town aligned, it just sucks and u feel a wee bit ig backstabbed?

[Redados]

I really am not sure what to say rn cuz I feel like it doesn't matter what I say, if people believe mundivore, they will eliminate me today. I mean yes I'm not that helpful, don't have the greatest reads, and prolly won't be able to live to the end of this game anyways. But town will be wasting a lim and tmrw the stakes will be even higher than today.

Are you going to counterclaim?

[Noraa]

I really am not sure what to say rn cuz I feel like it doesn't matter what I say, if people believe mundivore, they will eliminate me today. I mean yes I'm not that helpful, don't have the greatest reads, and prolly won't be able to live to the end of this game anyways. But town will be wasting a lim and tmrw the stakes will be even higher than today.

Are you going to counterclaim?

no I am not a pr

[Redados]

Noraa why would you jump to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum after he outs when you can wait for a counterclaim? That was super sketch to just go "ur scum".

bc I feel like at a time like this, our pr would think more carefully. Ig its just cuz when you are the one getting limmed and you know very clearly that u r town aligned, it just sucks and u feel a wee bit ig backstabbed?

do you understand the logic? What Mundivore is saying is that assuming 72 is town then we win the game. Because of that, it's worth it for him to claim because he believes 72 to be town.

[Redados]

Noraa why would you jump to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum after he outs when you can wait for a counterclaim? That was super sketch to just go "ur scum".

bc I feel like at a time like this, our pr would think more carefully. Ig its just cuz when you are the one getting limmed and you know very clearly that u r town aligned, it just sucks and u feel a wee bit ig backstabbed?

do you understand the logic? What Mundivore is saying is that assuming 72 is town then we win the game. Because of that, it's worth it for him to claim because he believes 72 to be town.

Following Mundivore's logic, if we lim you today and you're town, we still win the game! And it's all good! And there's no need for you to. fret.
Following Mundivore's logic, if we lim you today and you're scum, we (town) win the game and you lose the game. In that scenario there is indeed need for you to fret.

So I'm scumreading you a bit because you're fretting.

[Redados]

Noraa, if you're scum, your win condition right now is to make a really good case that 72 is scum imo.

[Noraa]

Ok so we have Redados, Sirius, 72, Mundivore, and me.
Y'all kill me today. Someone else is nk'ed
the next day
you have Redados, Sirius, 72, and Mundivore excluding the nk'ed one
the next day
you kill sirius. someone else is nk'ed.
and then ur left with scum and one vt

[Redados]

Ok so we have Redados, Sirius, 72, Mundivore, and me.
Y'all kill me today. Someone else is nk'ed
the next day
you have Redados, Sirius, 72, and Mundivore excluding the nk'ed one
the next day
you kill sirius. someone else is nk'ed.
and then ur left with scum and one vt

1. Let's assume that Mundivore is NKd because he's the tracker. We lim you today. You're scum, we win.
2. Let's assume that Mundivore is NKd because he's the tracker. We lim you today. You're town and we move to LIMLO
-it will be me, Sirius, and 72 left. I'm conftown, I've been cleared by the tracker. 72 and I vote for Sirius.
2a. Sirius is scum, we win
2b. Sirius is town, we lose, scum!72 wins.

[Noraa]

Cuz sirius and i arent scum. I am 99% sure this is true

[Redados]

Cuz sirius and i arent scum. I am 99% sure this is true

So you're saying that Scenario 2b. from my post 1497 is going to play out?