FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)


Forum rules
User avatar
Servant Ruler
Servant Ruler
Townie
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Ruler
Townie
Townie
Posts: 97
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1700 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:35 am

Post by Servant Ruler »

In post 1690, Servant Rider wrote:Archer didn't swing shit, he jumped back on at L-2 (E-2?) in the hopes of getting cheap towncred. The backfire was magnificent on that one. Are you trying to say that the Assassin wagon was scum led? Why would they, and where is the evidence of a concerted effort for such a claim?

Servant Ruler wrote:
Rider - voting me does things for me, I'm a masochist like that.

I've not voted for you in the history of this thread, so... Nani?
I think assassin's wagon was assassin led and assisted by AE and I have reason to townread AE so no.

But let me put it like this. If scum were going to cede the master to town where is the most likely place they would have ended up?

I doubt stagnating on Avenger is the play. Caster/shielder as a duo still doesn't make multiple scum on assassin any less likely.

I looked back at archer moving from Assassin to avenger and back and it reads to me like Archer trying to generate favor for himself and being coached back onto Assassin. Alternate theory is Archer trying to reverse trajectory in the hopes that caster goes through but Lancer flipped from Caster to assassin and that may have made Caster unmasterable. The dominos fell after that.

I thought you were voting me sorry, I that read wrong.
User avatar
Servant Assassin
Servant Assassin
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Assassin
Goon
Goon
Posts: 530
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1701 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:33 am

Post by Servant Assassin »

I think the question for me is what a coordinated flip from Archer/Lancer to me does for them at all? I had expressed skepticism toward both players at earlier points in the thread and I'm not terribly sure what they would have been hoping to accomplish with such an approach. Letting my wagon die likely would have been for the better.

Suddenly realizing I probably shouldn't be starting interaction analyses going through my townreads as that is likely to be a very inefficient process. Will have more to say later today, hopefully.
User avatar
Servant Avenger
Servant Avenger
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Avenger
Goon
Goon
Posts: 706
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1702 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:11 am

Post by Servant Avenger »

@Alterego: #1688. Noted. Defender, Shielder.
@Rider: Right after our little tiff. I'd be happier with full reads lists with reasons still. As it gives me something more solid to work with. But you're doing better this day phase in general imo.
User avatar
Servant Alter Ego
Servant Alter Ego
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Alter Ego
Goon
Goon
Posts: 758
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1703 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:37 am

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 1513, Servant Shielder wrote:some of you may have noticed that i was not on the archer wagon. i could have been on the archer wagon, but had i been those of you inclined to think im scum would have thought i was simply bussing.
I dont think there was much to be learned from me being on the wagon, so i sat it out
(despite it being on someone i stated a scumread on pretty early). whats interesting is who else was off-wagon. i think the elim was kinda inevitable so scum could easily have bussed, yet most of my scumreads were off-wagon. interesting.
I know you've been asked about this post before, but I still have a question.

At the time, was the bolded why you decided not to vote?
User avatar
Cabd
Cabd
QT Sniper
User avatar
User avatar
Cabd
QT Sniper
QT Sniper
Posts: 15090
Joined: February 3, 2013

Post Post #1704 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:37 am

Post by Cabd »

Vote Count D1-4 (Second Elimination)



With 13 players alive, it will take 7 votes to eliminate a player.

Caster (3): Beast, Berserker, Shielder
Shielder (3): Foreigner, Avenger, Caster
Lancer (2): Saber, Rider

Phase Page Usage: 22/60

Day one will end in: (expired on 2020-09-18 22:00:00)
Have retired for good; Life is too busy to have time or energy for mafia. It was fun~
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
Goon
Posts: 377
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1705 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:55 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Could people town reading Beast tell me why they think he's town?

Also please include your thoughts on his Caster vote when you do so.

TIA
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
Goon
Posts: 377
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1706 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:00 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Please also mention his gun to head town read on Caster and his reasoning for voting Caster over like... anyone he actually thinks is likely scum when doing so.
User avatar
Servant Caster
Servant Caster
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Caster
Goon
Goon
Posts: 543
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1707 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:02 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

I have no reason for town reading beast I just felt bad saying all the lowposters were scum because that's never the answer
User avatar
Servant Avenger
Servant Avenger
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Avenger
Goon
Goon
Posts: 706
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1708 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:20 pm

Post by Servant Avenger »

@Caster: Statistically, Scum post less than town. This is just a known fact. Some players (bless their hearts) go against the grain with effort/passion/genuinely enjoy playing scum. Sometimes, IRL, gets in the way. But this is absolutely not a reason to town read em.
User avatar
Servant Caster
Servant Caster
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Caster
Goon
Goon
Posts: 543
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1709 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:25 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

I just don't think this game is that easy, ya know. And like if I saw my team all not trying, I'd be like. Fuck this I'm carrying.
User avatar
Servant Avenger
Servant Avenger
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Avenger
Goon
Goon
Posts: 706
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1710 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:31 pm

Post by Servant Avenger »

I hope this game is not that easy because then I couldn't continue playing it. Favorite game on site so far.
But knock it off and just try to read people rather than think about it in purely pessimistic terms as a form of ego protection (or some weird mafia thought process about what you think town looks like)
User avatar
Servant Caster
Servant Caster
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Caster
Goon
Goon
Posts: 543
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1711 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:35 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

Well then I have to confess I wouldnt mind losing Beast, although I want to delete Shielder and Ruler more.
User avatar
Servant Caster
Servant Caster
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Caster
Goon
Goon
Posts: 543
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1712 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:41 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

Oh the third scum I put down was saber? That's stupid I don't agree with past me.

I currently would guess all scum are to be found in berserker lancer ruler beast shielder.
User avatar
Servant Saber
Servant Saber
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Saber
Goon
Goon
Posts: 195
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1713 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:09 pm

Post by Servant Saber »

I will catch up tomorrow morning. I was out later than expected tonight.
User avatar
Servant Beast
Servant Beast
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Beast
Goon
Goon
Posts: 588
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1714 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:37 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Prod dodging for the moment. Be back soon
User avatar
Servant Shielder
Servant Shielder
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Shielder
Goon
Goon
Posts: 146
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1715 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:50 pm

Post by Servant Shielder »

In post 1703, Servant Alter Ego wrote:
In post 1513, Servant Shielder wrote:some of you may have noticed that i was not on the archer wagon. i could have been on the archer wagon, but had i been those of you inclined to think im scum would have thought i was simply bussing.
I dont think there was much to be learned from me being on the wagon, so i sat it out
(despite it being on someone i stated a scumread on pretty early). whats interesting is who else was off-wagon. i think the elim was kinda inevitable so scum could easily have bussed, yet most of my scumreads were off-wagon. interesting.
I know you've been asked about this post before, but I still have a question.

At the time, was the bolded why you decided not to vote?
yep
User avatar
Servant Shielder
Servant Shielder
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Shielder
Goon
Goon
Posts: 146
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1716 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:52 pm

Post by Servant Shielder »

In post 1712, Servant Caster wrote:Oh the third scum I put down was saber? That's stupid I don't agree with past me.

I currently would guess all scum are to be found in berserker lancer ruler beast shielder.
ok then please explain why each is likely to be scum.
User avatar
Servant Alter Ego
Servant Alter Ego
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Alter Ego
Goon
Goon
Posts: 758
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1717 (ISO) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:17 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 1715, Servant Shielder wrote:
In post 1703, Servant Alter Ego wrote:
In post 1513, Servant Shielder wrote:some of you may have noticed that i was not on the archer wagon. i could have been on the archer wagon, but had i been those of you inclined to think im scum would have thought i was simply bussing.
I dont think there was much to be learned from me being on the wagon, so i sat it out
(despite it being on someone i stated a scumread on pretty early). whats interesting is who else was off-wagon. i think the elim was kinda inevitable so scum could easily have bussed, yet most of my scumreads were off-wagon. interesting.
I know you've been asked about this post before, but I still have a question.

At the time, was the bolded why you decided not to vote?
yep
:neutral:
User avatar
Servant Beast
Servant Beast
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Beast
Goon
Goon
Posts: 588
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1718 (ISO) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:09 am

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 1652, Servant Rider wrote:
In post 1599, Servant Beast wrote:Invested? Not really. Just riding that post scum elim high, so I'm willing to sell my vote to beserker especially since the alt wagon is shielder and I don't feel comfortable eliminating them today.
Why are you voting Caster instead of one of your other four scumreads? I'm inferring from your post that you're sheeping Berserker, but why are you sheeping them onto someone you've stated you think is town?
Because when have I ever been right about my scum/town reads day 1? I'm happy with eliminating one in the first half and sheeping a strong town read for the second. Best chance to get lucky, let someone else be lucky.
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
Goon
Posts: 377
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1719 (ISO) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:22 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

So your reasoning for voting Caster is you may be wrong in thinking Caster is town and you aren't ever right D1 (if we ignore Archer)? Am I understanding that correctly?

And if you don't trust your own reads, then why trust Berserker's over, I dunno, literally anyone else's? Is she your strongest town read?
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
Goon
Posts: 377
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1720 (ISO) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:25 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

See, if
I
were a town player here (hypothetically), I'd think being correct about a scum read would mean I was on the right track, not that I should abandon all my reads and sheep someone because when am I ever right?
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Moon Cancer
Goon
Goon
Posts: 377
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1721 (ISO) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:28 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(Though arguably most of the player list was right if the gun to head reads are anything to go by, but I don't really see where the sudden lack of confidence in your reads would come from regardless.)
User avatar
Servant Assassin
Servant Assassin
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Assassin
Goon
Goon
Posts: 530
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1722 (ISO) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:48 am

Post by Servant Assassin »

Apologies if these summaries are a little difficult to read/not exactly rife with analysis but the purpose, anyway, is to try to compile these instances of interaction and let people draw their own conclusions. These are direct mentions searches so I may have missed a few instances of talking where there weren't direct quotes, unfortunately.

Archer/Shielder:

Archer is very light on mentions of shielder. Questions shielder about saying they have an issue with the game being mechanically complex in . They give a scumread of shielder in that is not explained. Archer made that very scummy vote on shielder in . However, when Berserker went to the lengths of defending shielder and I pumped the brakes on a quickvote, they argued with berserker about shielder in but ultimately unvoted and asked shielder if they were "trolling", seemingly attempting to throw them a line. They also conclude Berserker is townie for defending shielder in , which is a bit weird.

Shielder puts an out of nowhere scumread on Archer with the . is weirded out by my master vote on Archer in , which would make sense with those prior thoughts, but makes no comment on my unvote. makes a very strange comment about Archer. argues with Archer. in they say "this is a pretty vanilla take and my reasoning doesnt differ from other people" as Archer had become the consensus scumread.

Conclusion

I would not say any of this behavior really clears Shielder particularly, in fact given the level of interaction here I would say cross-bussing seems entirely possible.

Archer/Saber:

Archer expressed disagreement with Saber 1's opening strategy in , questioned Saber over the signal to noise ratio comment in , and explains himself to Saber in , saying "I will try to cut down on the fluff if you'd want which should resolve the problem of quote striping."

Saber calls out Archer in for low signal-to-noise ratio. This is shortly after Beast and Moon Cancer both expressed scumreads of Archer. Their reasoning in reply to Archer is that their quote stripes "are a reasonable tactic for instilling a lack of desire to read and re-read the thread, which pairs well with artificial thread inflation." which is a bit strange to say. Saber 2 expresses unease at how easy the vote is in but does not draw a conclusion

Conclusion

There is not a lot to go on here, but I would give Saber some credit for their early callout of Archer and repetition of their position, and the way Archer responded to them looks like scum attempting to appeal to a townie. I would say they are slightly less likely to be partners.

Archer/Ruler:

In Archer shades replacement Ruler, saying "I'm not a fan of this lazy play, but that would be hypocritical. Just be helpful in the future because this is not really a good first look for you." He mentions ruler as a scumread in the GTH, and in says "Also, I don't really have a read on ruler, but that means scum."

In Ruler says "With that said id agree there is a degree of coordination involved in Assassin being mastered and I would have given Archer a ton of points if they stuck to Avenger.". This is the only comment on Archer they make on Archer prior to their flip.

Conclusion

The inactivity from Ruler has hurt a lot which makes this hard to read. I could see Archer distancing from Ruler, or I could see Ruler as a weaker townie that Archer felt they could push for lurking. My gut says the latter but it's not very strong at all. The lack of many interactions is certainly suspicious.

Archer/Rider:

In Archer says "Rider's entrance was somewhat lacking". In , Archer says Rider could be town for having an unseen progression on Lancer. When called out by Rider, he answers them in , and that is about it in terms of their interactions.

Rider initially starts off by saying he likes Archer in , but does not have an explanation. When Moon Cancer calls them scum, they say "I very much am interested to hear words pertaining to this subject" in . In they reverse their read on Archer, saying " made me 180 and march right down scumfuck lane with that one." They elaborate on this in , calling it fluffy and criticizing Archers reasons for townreading them in the quotestripe post. They question archer twice later in that post about certain things they've said. Asks Caster why they're "degrading on Archer" in . Then mentions Archer as a "must-die" read in .

Conclusion

I would not say there is anything in the interactions between the two here that makes them incompatible, Rider did call Archer as scum but was not among the earliest or the loudest voices to do so. The slightly too early townread and reversal on Archer is suspect.

Archer/Lancer:

In Lancer asks Archer why he's voting for them, and asks if he's scumreading Berserker. They clarified in interpreting the "busywork" comment as being directed at Berserker. In disagrees with archer about his interpretation of alter ego talking about how they'd been treating moon cancer as town, and asks some probing questions. In Lancer says "Archer I would probably lazily have my vote on if this were a normal phase." Makes further criticism of Archer in , saying "Archer, you mention a lot of posts (ex Alter Ego's) and with Moon Cancer with your that you say feel like busywork. But a lot of your own comments are also just neutral questions or statements. Like, in you just say "good point" to something. What's the difference between scummy busywork and just casually saying words?" The sequence in // is a bit funny as part of their read flip on me is my reaction test vote on Archer. Do they do that as a teammate? Would be sort of on the nose. They follow up on Archer asking them to respond to their earlier question in - I do like the persistence here, and think a partner would be less likely to ignore a partner's questioning. In mentions archer continuing to ignore him. Continues to press Archer for an explanation in but says they like his answer in . Asks Archer why he townreads them in , and that's it.

Archer 'votes' Lancer on the first page in as an RVS-ish kind of vote. Gives an explanation of "Mostly joke as you were last poster, but also because partial tone. I'll keep it here until I find someone better." in response to Lancer's question in . Criticizes Lancer for calling Alter Ego scum without reasons in , saying "I really don't see the point in calling random people scum and town without at least outlining reasons. That just makes me think scum trying to look good." Later in that post, commenting on me attacking Lancer, says "Overall, I like Assassin more than Lancer here, but that doesn't mean Lancer is scum." Responds to Lancer's questioning in . He actually answers Lancer about his scumhunting in in a pretty waffly way.

Conclusion

There's some things in here I like, but also some I don't like, and I wouldn't say any of it is clearing but the way Lancer pestered Archer and got ignored for some time is slightly town, given how we saw Archer clam up under pressure it is possible to give Lancer towncred here although the end result of his questioning is a bit disappointing.

Archer/Moon Cancer
:
After being accused of being scum by Moon Cancer, he replies with "Well I'm not" in . Think this sort of blunt protest is much more likely to come from scum to a town. Asks Moon to explain their read in . Asks again in and a continued "it's not me" protest at the end. Then in says Moon Cancer saying they might do a meta-dive on me "sounds like something scum would say.", explaining that it felt "showy" in . Names Moon Cancer as a scumread in . Seems a clear-cut case of OMGUS-ing a townie who had caught him. Jokingly calls a Moon Cancer post a "scumslip" in . Interestingly, lists her as town in GTH, defends her from Berserker in . Defends himself to moon cancer in .

Moon cancer fairly persistently called Archer scum, starting in , which may be the first instance of someone calling him out. Gets excited by Beast calling Archer and Alter Ego scum in , says to read them in double-iso in . Says it's about how Archer is talking to Alter Ego in . Does feel like the sort of "eureka" moment a townsperson would have. More mentions of archer is scum in . Gives a "heh" in in response to archer naming two town reads and two scum reads. Asks archer if me and alter ego are still his only townreads in . Asks the question about there being zero resistance to shielder and archer being gone, and what it means for the remaining scum in . Says they haven't thought about Archer since writing him off as scum in the master selection phase in .

Conclusion

Moon Cancer is very unlikely to be a teammate of Archer, I would say. The push is persistent enough and Archer's response to it looks like caught scum, not teammate being bussed.

Archer/Caster:

Archer converses with Caster a few times in /, and is mostly passive in response to the "weak shit" from Caster in . in Archer says "I don't think your sense of urgency reads natural." to Caster's vote on Foreigner, which is an odd comment to make. Explains that it was "weird tone" in , gives a "hmm" in response to saying their read of archer may have degraded. Then agrees with Caster about townreading me in . Replies to caster about not mastering foreigner in . Again, we return to him saying caster does not "inspire confidence" in . and says he would rather vote avenger than caster in , says caster is "lower than" foreigner in .

I am not going to fault Caster for their GTH town on Archer. However, I find Archer's scumread on Caster to be very notable. In their list of 4 scumreads, Archer named Beast, Ruler, Shielder, and Caster. These were all among the lower activity posters, they might have been slots archer saw as viable pushes to maybe keep him alive long enough to use the strongman. Caster is notable because he does not fit this mold. This is a player who had just gotten to M-2 in the previous phase, surely he would not be seen as someone who was likely to get burned anytime in the near future? I can't help but look at this in combination with the end of the master phase, where Archer seemed to not be concerned about optics and instead with trolling people off my wagon. Archer very much seemed to want to keep away from the Caster wagon, but he stopped from calling him scum outright or trying to stop it from going through. I am perhaps venturing into overthinking, but I could see this being how a scum player would treat a master wagon on a partner.

Only notable interaction after the GTH is to ask caster about berserker defending Shielder in

Caster names Archer as a possible vote in , which seems a curiously early read. They then criticize some of Archer's posts in , but stop short of an actual read change. In response to Archer's criticism of their "sense of urgency", in they say "I don't have any objections to that actually". In he says "Archer may have degraded a bit since he started quote striping, but this is a popular opinion now." Next interaction with Archer is much later in where Caster responds to Archer saying he doesn't care if Foreigner wants the upgrade, that he is town. In he says "I am alarmed that all my scumreads are currently lowposters, but I'm not sure who I'm missing. Archer/Lancer are the most obvious candidates, but I hardly remember why.". Then in there's this gentle acquiescence to eliminating Archer when I show he's a consensus scumread. Claims archer was town in the GTH "due to math". There's just conspicuously little discussion of Archer from Caster.

Conclusion

I would say Caster looks very plausible as a potential partner for Archer based on interactions. The early townread, the light criticism of each other that went nowhere, and the hesitance to re-evaluate the read when other players began attacking Archer look suspect to me.
User avatar
Servant Assassin
Servant Assassin
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Assassin
Goon
Goon
Posts: 530
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1723 (ISO) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:54 am

Post by Servant Assassin »

Still want to go through alter ego/avenger/beast/berserker/foreigner for the sake of completeness but most of those are liable to take a fair chunk of time to do. And if I missed anything because of my sloppy ctrl+F searching, let me know.
User avatar
Servant Beast
Servant Beast
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Servant Beast
Goon
Goon
Posts: 588
Joined: August 28, 2020
Location: The Throne of Heroes

Post Post #1724 (ISO) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:55 am

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 1719, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:So your reasoning for voting Caster is you may be wrong in thinking Caster is town and
you aren't ever right D1 (if we ignore Archer)
? Am I understanding that correctly?

And if you don't trust your own reads, then why trust Berserker's over, I dunno, literally anyone else's? Is she your strongest town read?

I'm not right %100 of the scum team. If at the end of the game my day 1 scum reads include the entire scum team, I will buy you a beer.

And currently yes. I don't see scum coming off archers elimination with that much passion just to push a miselimination and my avenger town read has waned since we got out of day 0.
Locked