Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Farren]

Voting out GuiltyLion is a mistake for Town.

Voting out GuiltyLion before he gets replaced is an even bigger mistake. I'd be willing to bet treestumps will not be replaced, which means one less potential conftown slot trying to figure things out.

[Farren]

I didn't think it would be a hammer

Can you point to any self-meta showing that you do things like this as Town? Or otherwise convince me that this is Town|you doing this and not scum|you? Because this weakens the argument that says scum|you wouldn't play this set in a directionless fashion.

[Bell]

I would totally replace into a stump slot.

[Bell]

If I could, I would only replace into those.

[Isis]

I didn't think it would be a hammer

Can you point to any self-meta showing that you do things like this as Town? Or otherwise convince me that this is Town|you doing this and not scum|you? Because this weakens the argument that says scum|you wouldn't play this set in a directionless fashion.

Subject: Micro 891 - Death List (Game Over)

Hey pops, I don't think MariaR is scum or has a <rand chance of being scum as of now.

VOTE: Layer

Would like to vote pair after.

Why are you townreading me?

I've expressed interest in like 6 different lynches today

And mostly I want to lynch the nullscum lurkers which isn't exactly a beacon of innocence
I doubt it can be the same reason Azure has, want to hear it in your own words.

You don't seem like you're pushing an agenda.

Subject: Micro 891 - Death List (Game Over)

I may or may not be familiar with your scum patterns.

[Isis]

So, short answer, no!

[Morning Tweet]

Lol i forgot Dunn could vote

uh oh we have a LURKEY!!!

Is my world MT’s pocket dimension.

wHat?!

[Morning Tweet]

Help! Help! I'm being BoPed!

I'm not even that good at scum. Check my last scumgame (Your Nightmare), Morning and see the stark contrast of my play. Seriously, I'm obvtown here if you compare it to my play there.

But then i might be proven wrong >;(

Also, Morning, I think you're focusing on finding scum far too much from just looking at who was pushing and interacting with Ydrasse. Associations is helpful, but look at how individually towny/scummy people are too. If you're seeing a lot of towny things from me, that just means I'm town and not some kind of scum behemoth.

Well yes. if i go by individual towniness i might end up with (imo)

Bell, tea leaves, Farren
---
Isis
GuiltyLion

But how can it be Guilty?!!!!??!

[Dunnstral]

But how can it be Guilty?!!!!??!

All bite and no bark

[Morning Tweet]

i would argue he was pretty serious about wanting Ydrasse dead, the amount of suspicion he laid on her locked him in to either eliminating her D1 or D2

mayyyybe the swap to Bell at end of D2 was an attempt to salvage it. I dunno. He gave up on Ydrasse being scum right at the finish line, which is sort of weird if you're trying to bus someone

[Isis]

the eternal moral dilemma about eliminating a replacing slot that is scummier than rand versus waiting to see if the replacement brings it to townier than rand, potentially benefitting from view diversity that theoretically shouldn't be available in a forum mafia game with full integrity

[Dannflor]

VOTECOUNT 3.4

Willow

[2] Guilty Lion :

Isis, Dunnstral

[1] tea leaves :

Morning Tweet

[1] Isis :

Bell

[3] Not Voting :

GuiltyLion, Farren, tea leaves

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to exile.

The Day 3 deadline is in: Paused at 1 day, 10 hours, 30 minutes pending replacement.

[Farren]

VOTE: Isis

Inertia is setting in.

Inertia is the enemy.

[Isis]

Farren seems to have this same inherent backslidey feeling about my alignment that I feel about tea leaves

[Farren]

If you'd switched to tea leaves right there, I'd probably have gone along with you. Part of why I'm voting for you right now is that I don't think Town|you would settle for an inertia-fueled gamestate. Unless it was pointing squarely at your candidate of choice and you were confident about it. And even then, I'm thinking about how you acted earlier with regards to tea leaves. How you're acting now doesn't line up with that.

Thing is, I don't think Town|tea leaves settles either. So obviously this logic is wrong somewhere. Maybe there are non-game factors at play. Or maybe I'm underestimating the strength of the inertia. Or something else that I'm not considering. But is it fundamentally flawed, or is it just wrong with respect to one of you?

[Isis]

i wish this game had a mechanic where i could win or lose solely based on the accuracy of my townread on Farren

Dannflor could you please add one

[Farren]

Well, there's a mechanic where all but one of us win or lose based on the accuracy of the townread of the person who isn't one of us. Isn't solely, though. Need to figure out a way to get around the "having to convince others you're right" bit ...

Trees make lousy vigilantes.

[Isis]

my reads are relatively flat, so it makes sense that I wouldn't be particularly townreadable

this game has repeatedly presented to me the paradox/conundrum/catch-22 that if you solve who the scum are and show that to people, that process will generally show people you are town. but, if you can't figure out a solve for the game, you don't have any changed probability %s on other people's flips as something to work towards, so knowing your own rolecard is green and doing stuff that demonstrates that is the best thing to do instead. But, the "stuff that demonstrates that", is figuring out a solve for the game!!!!! there's a couple here and there other ways but not as many

I feel like this paradox needs a page and a wiki page but doesn't have one.

i feel it stronger than most other players would, I think, because my town stat sheet is pretty heavily skewed towards campaigning and canvassing. Convincing other players to vote the way I want them to is something I'm disproportionately good at/focused on/DunningKruger'ed onto (choose 2/3 that you like) and I put comparatively low effort into determining those reads are correct in the first instance. Generally it doesn't take much effort, to get a notion I believe in, and I don't work as hard as other tryhard players to make sure what I believe in is correct.
so the main thing I have a tendency to want to focus on is kind of nullified by having organic suspicions towards several slots, but those suspicions being countered by counterarguments from those players themselves or white knights (queue, spelled "queue", Farren complaining that that term has negative connotations even though I only want the denotation and not the connotation here). Repeatedly I've struggled with the idea of deciding that I've never scumread Hectic as scum and carried my way through to effectuating his elimination without him talking me out of it which makes me just want to pretend I didn't read any of his defenses. But that can be intellectually disingenuous and overreactive and bad. Feeding into the temptation is the knowledge that I am able to scumread Hectic correctly in the first instance, apparently, I found out during this game in the Nightmare Scum PT that he was a secret alt I grew suspicious enough of to investigate, which changed my record.

another element of being a highly persuasion-polarized player is I run into the strange effect that my ability to canvas for eliminations can often outstrap my ability to make them accurate, which means that postgame review of my losses me queda con which means "leaves me with" but it's gotten so weird to use half of Hectic's alt name, me queda con a bunch of games where I would have been more likely to win if I had done nothing at all. It's like, always going to look like that if I get a high proportion of my desired eliminations. So where other players might slightly want to get lethargic or "allow inertia to take over" as you say I have an increased propensity to do so?

so when you say, "town!you" wouldn't let inertia take over here, I think, I very strongly agree with the sentiment when "you" is generic and could be freely exchanged with any other player put into this position. Based on like the gamestate, how my instincts' alignment with town consensus is not super lined up. but when it's specifically me I'm not surprised or particularly disappointed in myself when I consider some characteristics of how I play. And if i consider them carefully enough I think there might be a blind spot in my scumrange where I wouldn't exactly be able to play a game like I've played this one because it would be too difficult to not start to settle on something by now. I'm not sure I should count it as a strike against myself or a gap if it's something where town's just are blithely rewarding my scumgame for wincon aligned behavior, actually, so maybe gap in scumrange is a bad term, just like no one has yet to punish me for muffling but not snuffing my memeposting when I roll scum. It's pretty convenient to only rarely project doubt or deference as scum, you get to kill all the people you want to get killed. I remember when after a game ended that Firebringer was barely paying attention to he complained that I didn't do anything, and it was only when that prompted me to look back at what I had done that I realized that I'd been primarily responsible for every single mis-elimination since I repped in. And I just finished Nightmare where I pretended to be tunneled on a consensus nulltown and vigged him. So I'm talking myself into it's free money not a range blind spot. But not doing anything is a pretty singularly town behavior, I think.

there's another dimension to it too, I think. I think the persuading part always goes faster when I'm right. And part of how I try to correct the whole, looking back at games where I talked people into what I wanted is, trying to decide to stop canvassing for a wagon if it's not easy. Generally I'm capable of getting the last few votes on something I want, but if it's hard, that can be an indicator my logic is less fundamentally compelling than usual and it's more parts charisma than usual and it's not as good. This is actually still kind of decent for winrate in games with some strong PoE where reducing my own eliminations is a positive side effect but this gamestate doesn't feel like that, this is one where an inability to control the town certainly makes me doubt whether I should. Which might seem like a weird belated realization with Ydrasse already flipped red but she's town in my heart or something idk.

blindsheeping Dunnstral is pretty underrated, i'm probably up to a dozen games played with him and my unverified recollection of his accuracy is pretty good. You wanting to do what I wanted to do shares an identity with like trusting myself on what I want to do. I feel very sure you're town, but like, is tea leaves scum, or did I just talk you into it, and if I did, why couldn't I make it so crisp and rich that you're confident in it and maybe even townread me?!?!

this post feels long and I'm not exactly sure what sparked it or which point I wanted to condense on exactly.
pedit: lol

[Bell]

Am I a bad person if I don’t read all of that

[Farren]

Are you already 100% convinced of Isis's alignment?

[Bell]

No.

[Bell]

My verified recollection of his accuracy is also that he’s pretty good.

[Farren]

my reads are relatively flat, so it makes sense that I wouldn't be particularly townreadable

this game has repeatedly presented to me the paradox/conundrum/catch-22 that if you solve who the scum are and show that to people, that process will generally show people you are town. but, if you can't figure out a solve for the game, you don't have any changed probability %s on other people's flips as something to work towards, so knowing your own rolecard is green and doing stuff that demonstrates that is the best thing to do instead. But, the "stuff that demonstrates that", is figuring out a solve for the game!!!!! there's a couple here and there other ways but not as many

Solving for the scum is a necessary part of being Town - or being able to recognize a correct solve, if someone else is able to do it. The fact that it helps establish one is Town is icing on the cake. "knowing your own rolecard is green and doing stuff that demonstrates that" sounds like describing LAMIST, minus the connotation of "this is scummy."

[Farren]

i feel it stronger than most other players would, I think, because my town stat sheet is pretty heavily skewed towards campaigning and canvassing. Convincing other players to vote the way I want them to is something I'm disproportionately good at/focused on/DunningKruger'ed onto (choose 2/3 that you like) and I put comparatively low effort into determining those reads are correct in the first instance. Generally it doesn't take much effort, to get a notion I believe in, and I don't work as hard as other tryhard players to make sure what I believe in is correct.

I'm having a tough time parsing this. Let's try a paraphrase and see where it gets me. Keeping the filter on high.

You're good at talking other people into getting the eliminations you want. You focus more on that than you do on trying to figure out if you're eliminating scum or not - as Town.

That's the first part. It's definitely not my playstyle, but this game does not consist of an army of clones of me. You've mentioned earlier that you've been finding it difficult to do that. That may contribute to the drift. (You may have said that as well; I don't recall). That may also contribute to a reason why you're not fighting the inertia.

Any of that wrong?

[Isis]

my reads are relatively flat, so it makes sense that I wouldn't be particularly townreadable

this game has repeatedly presented to me the paradox/conundrum/catch-22 that if you solve who the scum are and show that to people, that process will generally show people you are town. but, if you can't figure out a solve for the game, you don't have any changed probability %s on other people's flips as something to work towards, so knowing your own rolecard is green and doing stuff that demonstrates that is the best thing to do instead. But, the "stuff that demonstrates that", is figuring out a solve for the game!!!!! there's a couple here and there other ways but not as many

Solving for the scum is a necessary part of being Town - or being able to recognize a correct solve, if someone else is able to do it. The fact that it helps establish one is Town is icing on the cake. "knowing your own rolecard is green and doing stuff that demonstrates that" sounds like describing LAMIST, minus the connotation of "this is scummy."

yes, sometimes as town I do stuff that can show I'm town. Some of it isn't always solving.
most of the time just doing whatever you are doing and that somehow showing you are town is most of it though