FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Avenger]

I'm pretty sure there's day talk.
A master phase with no day talk that goes straight into day 1 is just kinda mean.

[Servant Caster]

Agreed.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

moon cancer, once youre caught up could you say who you think the scum are if its not anyone on my wagon?

I think this post prompted me to try to do a full reset on Shielder because I couldn't really understand the scum angle there. And uh...

so you think scum was overwhelmed and decided to ask in public rather than PT or PM to the mod? if you're serious about pursuing this argument, please walk us through it in detail. i'm gonna go make some popcorn while i wait.

pedit: i think this is probably a waste of time, and probably also a waste of limited post space. but feel free to make your case if you really want.

I have a soft spot for people who show incredulity at my read on them. (Actually, I reversed my read on Assassin for a similar reason.)

Ultimately decided if that slot is town, she had to have been lying about her role, but didn't wanna say anything until I saw what Shielder v3 would claim.

[Servant Caster]

I guess I'm more willing to believe v2's play and dumb lies came from some random newbie

[Servant Alter Ego]

Oh, Beast was another who started calling that slot town but I currently also think Beast is town so not as weirded out by that.

I am, more so since the replacement.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I don't think Shielder v2 was a newbie to mafia, just a newbie to this site. Shielder v2 seemed relatively experienced. (I just don't understand what the goal of lying about the role stuff was if she was town because even if I assume gambit, I'm struggling to see what she was trying to achieve.)

[Servant Avenger]

The enormity of this revelation is building into a headache.

[Servant Avenger]

Like, there's no resolution here.

It's just infinity question marks works.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Surely you meant unlimited and not infinity...

[Servant Avenger]

I am the bone of my question mark.
Question mark is my body and question mark is my blood
I have created over a thousand question marks
Unknown to death
Nor known to life.
Have withstood pain to create many question marks.
Yet those questions will never have answers.
So as I pray, unlimited question marks.

TaylorSwift is a goddamn mystery.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'm pretty sure there's day talk.
A master phase with no day talk that goes straight into day 1 is just kinda mean.

My neighborhood has daytalk so I assume scum have it too.

[Servant Berserker]

Hey, checking in but a bit busy rn

[Servant Saber]

If scum decided to cede the master to town, which they evidently did, their votes end up literally anywhere.

This is not true. Some town options can be better than others for scum. You're putting the cart before the horse.

Only if you look at the end of d0. I was talking in terms of the bigger picture of d0. Ceding master to town early allows scum to avoid associatives with each other because they can't/aren't pushing a wagon on one of their own. As such, they can individually vote anyone they like.

And certainly, some town options will be better than scum for others. However, this predicates two things, scum knowing roles and scum believing that person X will have less of an impact on town as an IC than others. The former is impossible (excepting the people who outed information) and the latter is far more likely. I do think Archer jumped to Avenger of his own volition and that he was coached (or more likely ordered) to go back to Assassin.

I suppose my point is, where are you going with all this?

It's my cog dis because of how Lancer admitted he was inactive. He didn't accuse people of being scummy for pushing him but he took responsibility for his prior play.

I like naked voting right now because I feel we have scum on the ropes but then I see a post like that and I am not so sure.

I'm getting a bit confused. So you're saying that you're being inconsistent on how you're reading lancer because you liked his admission? And what does naked voting have to do with it?

1) My point is that scum always have a preference. They don't need to know roles to have one. We can determine that preference by seeing how the votes show on the wagons.

We can use a flipless votecount based on dayplay but it requires alternative theories, is weak, and is more headache than it's worth.

2) I felt we did better without wall fights. Those wagons lead to Lancer. Yet, I feel Lancer's tonally town. So either a) my strategy theory is wrong and a fluke or b) my tonal theory is off.

[Servant Saber]

Caster wagon is pretty bad, not the people on it, outside shielder of course.
But it just isn't going to hit scum.

Does anyone on the Caster wagon think that it's going to go anywhere if you don't try to persuade a fairly large contingent of the game that Caster is likely to be scum?

If Caster is scum, one of these two is scum with him.

[Servant Saber]

I should also mention that I'm pretty biased towards the idea of Shielder being scum purely via POE at this point, so feel free to take my posts with a grain of salt with regards to Shielder, though I really do not believe that claim.

My read on Beast fluctuates each time I read her posts.

I'm not a fan of Beast's reply to me. My vote on Beast is clearly because I don't feel Beast is taking personal responsibility and Beast just ignores the rationale entirely.

[Servant Saber]

We should not lynch Shielder but Beast. His vote is incredibily bad.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Not really. Looks like a standard "I feel dumb for defending a scum fake claim" vote to me.

It could theoretically be scum who found an excuse to vote Shielder, I guess, but the vote itself doesn't mean much to me.

[Servant Saber]

That's the problem with Beast though. His reads are always sheeps and rehashes of other reads. There's nothing to ask about or engage upon. In a vacuum, each post may look fine. It's the lack of individual thought as a whole that's the problem.

If Shielder turns out to be town, Beast can blame the primary pushers. He doesn't have to think.

[Servant Avenger]

1. Beast is a she.
2. V2 shielder lied about their role pm info per V3 Shielder.
3. Sure.

[Servant Alter Ego]

hello
I've played fate/stay night vn and watched fate zero but that's as far as my fate knowledge goes
I'm confused since I'm going in blind but I'll do my best

Hello new shielder. Sorry you replaced into this slot but you are a popular wagon choice for today due in large part to how your previous owner claimed a part of their ability. Can you check your role PM and confirm, how many and under what conditions can you grant someone else a master?

Is it more likely that Town-Beast or Scum-Beast makes a post like this to (assumption!) Town Shielder?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Both could probably make that post. Though I suppose it entirely depends on what scum-Beast thought the outcome of that would be (i.e whether scum-Beast thought town-Shielder v2 was lying and Shielder v3 would reveal that and give scum-Beast the necessary excuse to vote town-Shielder? A bit far-fetched)

[Servant Alter Ego]

Both could probably make that post. Though I suppose it entirely depends on what scum-Beast thought the outcome of that would be (i.e whether scum-Beast thought town-Shielder v2 was lying and Shielder v3 would reveal that and give scum-Beast the necessary excuse to vote town-Shielder? A bit far-fetched)

I feel like town players would be a little more reserved (not sure that's the best word for what I'm getting at) and observational. Shielder 3.0's first few posts coming into the thread were pretty much the only chance they had to towntell or even inject more uncertainty about reads on their slot. The first part of Beast's post sound like the outcome was already foreordained against Shielder.

Scum might be more reserved, too, and wait for town to set the direction on where Shielder reads went from there?

I'm talking myself out of it a little just writing this up, but that post set off some alarms when I saw it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I think Beast was already partial to the idea that Shielder might be scum fake-claiming and so asked about that, yes.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I mean, what you see as 'outcome was already foreordained' I see as being partial to that idea.

But again, scum-Beast would have to assume town-Shielder v2 was lying for there to be some foreordained outcome against Shielder? Or do you think Beast was going to vote Shielder regardless of what Shielder said?

[Servant Alter Ego]

I mean, what you see as 'outcome was already foreordained' I see as being partial to that idea.

But again, scum-Beast would have to assume town-Shielder v2 was lying for there to be some foreordained outcome against Shielder? Or do you think Beast was going to vote Shielder regardless of what Shielder said?

Shielder 2.0 had to have lied, though. They claimed 2 different things about their role, either by accident initially and then stuck with it, or as some kind of gambit. It's more a question of whether Shielder 3.0, if town, can shine a bright townie light through all the fog, and the best chance for them of that happening is the first few posts under pressure.