FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm not really sure where you're going with that so I'm just going to nod sagely.

[Servant Assassin]

I would be surprised if beast pulled the scheme of "bus archer and then do nothing" as mafia, although that behavior is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

I think I'll be shelving my interaction analysis on Alter Ego/Avenger/Beast/Berserker/Foreigner with Archer for now, I know I'll be around tomorrow and outing those right now won't do much good.

---

In the meantime, I am going to pose the question: Why do people townread Caster, exactly?

This is a question that was on the edge of my mind during the Master phase and in its aftermath I couldn't help but look back and wonder. They have shown a high degree of irritability in their posting, but I find them entirely lacking in substance. Let me take you through a tour of the stances Caster has offered:

140 says Lancer had a bad post. Fencesits on Berserker and Foreigner.

199 says he would put the master vote between Archer and Alter Ego. No reasons given.

208 says he likes foreigner for town based on 204

218 Explains townread on Alter Ego, saying "I liked that you felt fine admitting that you don't really have your head in the game yet. I liked 78 and 193. A third reason I'll keep to myself."

280 reiterates townread on foreigner, saying "I don't feel confident enough about anything else."

317 claims to be developing a townread on rider, maybe me, and says "Archer may have degraded a bit"

358 says they have been suspicious of lancer but that my attack on them in 358 was "a bit extreme"

409 puts a townread on me

418 Snark directed at lancer, saying they don't care about Lancer's opinion of me

438 Says lancer's objection to the townread of me looks like omgus

603 asks again to master universal townread foreigner

618 says they haven't seen reasons to townread avenger

680 snipes at shielder "having contrarian reads for the lols because they're scum "

698 responds with "ok scum"

708 selfvote without reasoning. had previously not expressed a high degree of interest in receiving the master upgrade,

729 hints avenger may be scum for campaigning for the upgrade, but does not really shape it into a full-blown accusation.

746 more snark directed at shielder for calling them scum

1079 says berserker is successfully making them paranoid about me, and are "finally comfortable townleaning" assassin

1105 "I'll be real my plan for the future is 1. eliminate shielder 2. ??? 3. profit"

1218 Vote on shielder. It is worth noting, at this point, that Caster has not given a single concrete reason as to why shielder is scum.

1281 says very little, just calls berserker wrong and says their scumreads are lowposters.

1300 attacks shielder for having voted me in what I thought was clearly a joke

1344 Tries putting doubt on Berserker over their entrance posts

1445 Says Ruler's vote on them is suspicious as their vote was done with no reason. This, I suppose, is not unfair, but in 1447 they criticize Ruler for talking about seeing "who bit on Caster being viable." when they voted Caster as well, seemingly missing the point that they were claiming to have done it to fish for reactions. It's a very selective reading of what Ruler was saying.

1568 further criticism of that one weird shielder post

1588 says they would vote ruler or shielder. no further reasons.

1633 Says they don't buy shielder's claim.

1634 Votes Ruler, per my dictum of going for bigger fish, and "dueling wagons". Notably, Shielder was the only other vote on Ruler at the time, and Caster still has not given a reason on Ruler-scum other than lurking and their vote on Caster during the master phase.

1711 "Well then I have to confess I wouldnt mind losing Beast, although I want to delete Shielder and Ruler more."

1712 "Oh the third scum I put down was saber? That's stupid I don't agree with past me.

I currently would guess all scum are to be found in berserker lancer ruler beast shielder."

1822 attempts to bury Shielder mk. III early for their claim

1826 "I wish the new one didnt sound so town" from this poit on, they've been soft-playing the new shielder and is starting to make excuses for them

---

Is it just me, or am I not seeing someone who is trying particularly hard to scumhunt or have a real process of looking at the game? Most of what comes off their posts is tone, but it's just generic complaining that serves to obfuscate the fact that this person is not really looking for the forces of evil.

VOTE: Caster

Between the unimpressive ISO and the early awkwardness in their interactions with Archer, I am more than comfortable placing my vote here.

[Servant Caster]

Super.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I don't really want to go through everything in Caster's ISO that I think is a town indicator, but I will briefly just say that of the posts you referenced...

Honestly, I just want to king Foreigner whether he likes it or not and call it a day.

because he's not avenger

The above two are examples of what I consider a town indicator.

And so is #1105 in the context of what it is responding to.
And so is the first paragraph of #1281.
And the entirety of #1712. And #1826.

(I should mention that what I consider a town indicator comes down to a lot of factors, including context, phrasing and generally just parsing the the posts for intent, so if you disagree or you just don't see it, I don't particularly feel like explaining it in any depth.)

[Servant Assassin]

I will have to respectfully disagree.

In fact, a minute after 1105 was posted I made a note wondering if caster/shielder was a possible pairing.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I don't really agree with the macro assessment either (lack of scum hunting / looking at the game).

I'm neutral on the Archer interactions. There's nothing I'd consider a strong negative or positive interaction, at least that I can remember.

[Servant Assassin]

(normally I wouldn't get so specific with the details of notes but seeing as I'm conftown I figure it's no harm)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I think it's about having a plan for the future after you win the vote.

And I think to some degree Caster both doesn't have one of those and also isn't showing they aren't thinking about the future.

To put #1105 into context, as a response to this, I consider it a town indicator. But again, I'm not interested in explaining it if you don't see why.

[Servant Berserker]

Assassin

If I said I thought the remaining team was something like...

Caster/Moon Runes/Foreigner

Would you trust me?

[Servant Avenger]

Berserker, why did V2 shielder lie about their role pm?

[Servant Berserker]

Berserker, why did V2 shielder lie about their role pm?

Why did the player whose logic to avoid being voted was "Let me avoid voting on the obvious scum wagon because it'll be too scummy if I get on, and then tell everyone that was my thought process" lie about their role pm?

Likely a similar logic point.

I cannot see a good argument for how scum plays like this. This player, if you'll notice, was asked by me if they wanted help learning how to play after this game ended.

A thing I plan on taking up with them, given they SAID YES.

Now, consider this.

A player who is open to coaching and knows they are playing badly/are uncomfortable with the game.

If they have access to a scum QT.

Why are they not using it to be told what to say and how to react?

They're not scum. They simply cannot be scum here. I do not have faith Taylor Swift has enough 6D chess moves in them to fake this.

They are simply inexperienced and trying their best not to die, and in the act of doing this, made bad choices thinking it would help them not die.

It's as simple as that.

[Servant Avenger]

Why do you write like that berserker?

[Servant Caster]

Assassin

If I said I thought the remaining team was something like...

Caster/Moon Runes/Foreigner

Would you trust me?

Hahahahahahahhahahahshudhdkodiendjx.

[Servant Avenger]

Scum lie disproportionately more often than town. There's no feasible reason why this would improve their lifespan. I find the simpler answer that they just didn't have it and then when V3 came in, there was enough information for them to be comfortable reversing that course. I do not think Shielder is a good elimination today, however.

[Servant Caster]

[Servant Assassin]

Assassin

If I said I thought the remaining team was something like...

Caster/Moon Runes/Foreigner

Would you trust me?

Seems unlikely by my notes off certain interactions, but I can't fault you for taking the shot. I like the ambition.

[Servant Caster]

i think berserker is scum in a shit position trying to expand the elim pool because their buddies aren't doing well and you're all going to sit back and let it happen after i get eliminated today

[Servant Foreigner]

I think if Shielder flips scum (highly likely)
And Caster flips town (also highly likely)

Berserker's positioning is that of scum. I am just not going to act on it now because I can't pretend my read accuracy is perfect.

[Servant Caster]

unfortunately i likely can't make an at all compelling case without more flips because they're charismatic

[Servant Avenger]

I don't really want to go through everything in Caster's ISO that I think is a town indicator, but I will briefly just say that of the posts you referenced...

Honestly, I just want to king Foreigner whether he likes it or not and call it a day.

because he's not avenger

The above two are examples of what I consider a town indicator.

And so is #1105 in the context of what it is responding to.
And so is the first paragraph of #1281.
And the entirety of #1712. And #1826.

(I should mention that what I consider a town indicator comes down to a lot of factors, including context, phrasing and generally just parsing the the posts for intent, so if you disagree or you just don't see it, I don't particularly feel like explaining it in any depth.)

I'm going to give my opinion on this. I'll respect that you aren't interested in discussing it.

I think his viewpoint could be a simple way of setting himself back to gain town cred early. Give up a shot at the crown but get a seat up at the table. Later, he wasn't uninterested in being elected if he could rack up the votes, if I recall.
On the other hand, there's consistency of view point where it's harder to see him playing from that angle.

[Servant Assassin]

If Caster is town I would say my estimation of Berserker would sharply drop, yes

[Servant Caster]

i was going to try to do some goodposting tomorrow but now i feel buried under assassin having decreed my death and i don't feel like it anymore

[Servant Foreigner]

Why did the player whose logic to avoid being voted was "Let me avoid voting on the obvious scum wagon because it'll be too scummy if I get on, and then tell everyone that was my thought process" lie about their role pm?

Likely a similar logic point.

I cannot see a good argument for how scum plays like this. This player, if you'll notice, was asked by me if they wanted help learning how to play after this game ended.

A thing I plan on taking up with them, given they SAID YES.

Now, consider this.

A player who is open to coaching and knows they are playing badly/are uncomfortable with the game.

If they have access to a scum QT.

Why are they not using it to be told what to say and how to react?

They're not scum. They simply cannot be scum here. I do not have faith Taylor Swift has enough 6D chess moves in them to fake this.

They are simply inexperienced and trying their best not to die, and in the act of doing this, made bad choices thinking it would help them not die.

It's as simple as that.

This entire post is just shit, the explanation is simple, they didn't read their fake claim because some scum just likes to truthfully claim their role to avoid fucking up. This is especially true for inexperienced scum which is the entire argument we have at hand.
It has no town motivation even if you want to argue it has no scum motivation. And random lies that with no motivation that happen to line up with claiming the contents of a scum PM is pretty iffy to me.

The blatant attempt here to grasp at straws is actually kind of impressive.

[Servant Foreigner]

I mean Berserker's main is apparent to me.
And I don't think I can beat them in a 1v1.

So I guess if you guys want to be terrible and not eliminate Shielder that's fine.

But I am literally laying out 3/4 members of the scum team for you guys to take.

[Servant Avenger]

i was going to try to do some goodposting tomorrow but now i feel buried under assassin having decreed my death and i don't feel like it anymore

*sigh* No. Bad Hedge Wizard. Be a good Wizard, it's the townie thing to do.