Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[ItalianoVD]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

[callforjudgement]

We're 11 now, 2v9. Say Raya is town and we elim town today tomorrow we are at 2v7 and scum!Italiano is "confirmed" by their partner, we elim another townie. 2v5. Scum!Italiano is still alive and has no confirmation message, claims to have fn'ed the night kill. Yes you're right we elim the partner first and on a scum flip Italiano is dead.

Oh right, Italiano would have to come up with a third target N3.

If Italiano confirms that he is a

full

Friendly Neighbour (i.e. can confirm himself every Night all game, rather than just once or twice), that would be sufficient for me for today. (I don't want a scum Italiano weaselling out this by claiming to have limited shots.)

[ItalianoVD]

I just realised that there's a scenario in which Italiano could be town, but nonetheless display the behaviour shown so far this game – if Italiano is

not

a Friendly Neighbour, but

is

confirmable as town via some other means. This would explain the otherwise inexplicable stalling: if he confirms himself, he'll likely just end up drawing the nightkill, whereas if he just waits and hopes the pressure will go away, there's a chance that day ends with him looking very scummy, and scum shoot elsewhere, and there's always a fallback plan for if a wagon does build on him.

Now you’re thinking outside the box.

[ItalianoVD]

It’s not quite exactly like you’ve said it, but you’re kind of in the area

[ItalianoVD]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

[RCEnigma]

It’s not quite exactly like you’ve said it, but you’re kind of in the area

Weasely.

[Frogsterking]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I think you're underestimating shelly, she does more random things than you expect.

[WaltertheDunce10]

HMM
I am with frog on that.

[Frogsterking]

I view Raya and CFJ as the enemy, and CFJ must be eliminated first because he's the loudest and most active.

[Gamma Emerald]

And don’t pressure Walter. He doesn’t know and it’s not his decision.

Then why did he say he did?

[Gamma Emerald]

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Of the 4 remaining offwagon slots, coming into the day I had sjreaver/looker as the most likely town in that grouping. But lookers reasoning and timing on gerain is a lot less natural than gammas in general + a couple of town indicators in their iso puts gamma up there for now.

Looker has been on a downward trajectory since repping in but I don't know if that's necessarily scummy or if it's just him wanting to be contrarian.

Yeah I feel that. I rationalized this with the idea that Looker is an unorthodox player, similar to the player he replaced, SJReaver, and is attempting to scumhunt/gamesolve by his own means, and kept Looker as a townlean.

I agree they are unorthodox but I think rn it’s a way that seems scum indicative

[Gamma Emerald]

With that said, RCEnigma seems pretty likely as an Italiano partner, and is also pretty likely scum if Italiano is town (even if Italiano thinks he has a good reason to wanting to increase the general confusion and antagonism surrounding the game at the moment, RCEnigma doesn't really). My main reservation against joining that wagon is that I don't much like the wagon that's there at the moment – I would have expected it to dissipate upon realising that RCEnigma has a tendency to do stupid and ill-advised gambits as town, but it didn't (in particular, the fact that Raya is still there is something of a point against Raya, as she doesn't seem to have a scumread for independent reasons). I guess I'm starting to see where the Raya wagon has come from.

This position strikes me as mildly convenient, and also a sort of hilltop positioning (where cfj is poised to progress this read in any direction)

[Gamma Emerald]

Then gg town wins.

I'm not convinced: in Nosferatu's scenario, then D3 we have Italiano (scum), Italiano's buddy (claims a town result on Italiano), 7 townies. We'll probably waste a few days miseliminating townies in that scenario, and if we do get suspicious of the Italiano+buddy pairing, we'll almost certainly eliminate the buddy first. At that point, we'll still have no idea whether or not Italiano is scum; after all, even if he's town, he could have targeted scum and the scum player in question would confirm him. I fail to see how this scenario is an automatic town win.

Are you thinking in that situation the town (as a collective) will immediately regard the buddy as town?

[callforjudgement]

Then gg town wins.

I'm not convinced: in Nosferatu's scenario, then D3 we have Italiano (scum), Italiano's buddy (claims a town result on Italiano), 7 townies. We'll probably waste a few days miseliminating townies in that scenario, and if we do get suspicious of the Italiano+buddy pairing, we'll almost certainly eliminate the buddy first. At that point, we'll still have no idea whether or not Italiano is scum; after all, even if he's town, he could have targeted scum and the scum player in question would confirm him. I fail to see how this scenario is an automatic town win.

Are you thinking in that situation the town (as a collective) will immediately regard the buddy as town?

No, I'm not. My mistake was forgetting that Italiano would, in this hypothetical, have a night action on N3 (RCEnigma corrected this).

[Gamma Emerald]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

[Frogsterking]

Raya if you scum read CFJ why not join his wagon? You've commented multiple times now you view him as scummy.

[Frogsterking]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

This post looks like horse crap. Shoot Gamma up to FoS #2.

Raya it's your insistence on voting Walter that make me read you as scum or stubborn townie.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

This post looks like horse crap. Shoot Gamma up to FoS #2.

Raya it's your insistence on voting Walter that make me read you as scum or stubborn townie.

scum or stubborn townie isnt much of a read. like what are the odds that someone is either scum or town? pretty sure its 95% or so in this setup. why should we think scum rather than town? my PoE is now raya, cfj, and froggy

[Raya36]

If someone on the Raya wagon would prefer to push that one through, I'd be interested to hear your case

honestly if i wasnt scumreading raya i wouldnt remember that shes in the game

100 posts with almost no substance, no impact on the game that i can think of, and she also refuses to put her vote where her mouth is wrt the italiano claim, almost like she knows that he's town and knows his claim will get confirmed

I've said at least once or twice that I think Italiano is town making a bad decision and playing in an anti-town manner. I don't think scum would risk this kind of gambit. They don't even really get anything from it. Plus he seems to genuinely think what he's doing isn't hurting town. I strongly disagree with that but will never vote Italiano today because I think he is town.

[Raya36]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I've also been getting that feeling from cfj in general too. Maybe a bit biased but why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked. He even kinda set it up by saying he was worried about me trying to buddy him. Doesn't make much sense as scum.

[Raya36]

And don’t pressure Walter. He doesn’t know and it’s not his decision.

Then why did he say he did?

I'm curious about this too

[Raya36]

Raya if you scum read CFJ why not join his wagon? You've commented multiple times now you view him as scummy.

I'm shifting towards town reading him now

[Raya36]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

This post looks like horse crap. Shoot Gamma up to FoS #2.

Raya it's your insistence on voting Walter that make me read you as scum or stubborn townie.

I don't currently scumread anyone else. I'm not really insistent on it being Walter and if anyone can convince me it's someone else I'd be willing to move but so far nobody has done that.

[ItalianoVD]

I think you're underestimating shelly, she does more random things than you expect.

I'm not sure about that and what about Banana?

Then why did he say he did?

He said he knew who I targeted, which he does. What I was saying was he doesn't know why I'm holding back on revealing the target.

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

That's pretty muchf how I'm feeling right now. I had something all written up but after doing the isos, I'm torn.

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I've also been getting that feeling from cfj in general too. Maybe a bit biased but why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked. He even kinda set it up by saying he was worried about me trying to buddy him. Doesn't make much sense as scum.

Mmm...okay. And if you could make a list, given that you don't have scumreads, who would be your strongest to least townread?

[ItalianoVD]

Also is it your meta to not scumread players? @Raya