Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Prism]

I blocked both of those games out of my memory too don't worry

[Prism]

and you would think from how we treat each other that me/catboi live just to tear down the other for daring to have a correct read, but somehow we've been very good friends for just over 10 years now

[Prism]

"Man, look at this. You're right that I'm town catboi, but it's entirely for the wrong reasons. Sad. My reasons for townreading you are spot on, though, dunno why you won't admit it."

cue Benny Hill theme as slapfight ensues

[Chara]

the only thing that's genuinely bugging me at this point (since i'm gonna pretend i trust hectic's read there for the time being) is why *didn't* scum try to get lhf!town!lavender? especially since if Not Chara were to hardpush her through, they could do so without consequence. like, from my pov, the only two people to ever actually vote there were two town. was hectic really that convincing with that read?

i don't have a satisfying answer to this. i am instead quoting this post for further study postgame once all alignments are known, because i think it's interesting and maybe, finally, i could learn something about mafia theory.

[Prism]

That's a large part of why all 3 of the lurksquad are at the top of my scumpool. There's a chance that Pooky decided to go for the towncred instead of trying to swap it, and a chance that Tanner+one other person meant they couldn't really get the votes for something else.

Chances are though...one or two of the lurker slots are scum and the deepwolf isn't that deep.

[Chara]

........
Okay okay. Catboi has given me reasons to tr him. He hasn't not given me any counteracting maf-y hints. It's that easy yo.

Pooky, almost

everyone

was sus of you/pushing you.

Redtea,

Why is everyone sus of me/pushing me?

Is it because I wanted to do 4Spare?

Or is it because I'm LHF for scum to push?

Let's try to do some reasoning.

i try to do as Prism asks to help out, am instead reminded of this post of redtea's that i still do not like. the kitty TR is... eh, in its wording, and the statement that almost everyone was sus of Pooky, so therefore he shouldn't be scumreading kitty specifically for it also feels pretty weak.

[Prism]

Buddying catboi in the wake of their strong performance in SIN is also a very valid strategy here as scum. I should probably check into redtea's scumgames.

I checked around in Sujimichi's meta, too, and found that they like to give questions

as

they catchup as town, rather than at the end, and have low confidence in their scumgame+instantly flaked from their last. I'm not sure how much that means given the timing of their replacein today, sadly, but it does bother me.

[Prism]

604 is just bizarre, along with that whole exchange, because they gave coherent reasons for catboi waaaaaaaay back. It wasn't exactly hard to come up with something.

[Prism]

I don't know how to feel about the appeal to the safety of the masses part for defending catboi. I would have liked something like "

I

suspected you too."

[Prism]

And I mean, feel free to put me to work here too. This isn't a one way street.

[Chara]

Okay I didn't read this before sending my previous post and this is hilarious because both of these are why I think Pooky might be scum (Wanting to be nicer NAI, I put too much stock in the strategic comment from the game, his catboi case was always very hostile/unforgiving imo but now it's easier to look back and think it might have been in bad faith)

In comparison his vote on beeboy+his play today has been much stronger imo, instantly able to whip out justification on reads and they all line up pretty well

you say both here, but i only see the catboi case as a reason for Pooky to be scum. what's the other?

what about the case makes you believe it's in bad faith? i tried to read it from the perspective of pooky scum, but the way he prefaces it by saying if anyone thinks he's being unfair to catboi to say so is the opposite of hostile, to me. i suppose you could call his conclusion that kitty was scum or lazy town as unforgiving?
it just doesn't seem very manipulative. it's laid out to be seen quite plainly and, more than a bid to get kitty miseliminated, at best i could see it as scum Pooky's attempt to do a big visible "hunting" thing in order to get townread and overturn his bad position within the game.

from

that

perspective, i might see something here. but taking his play as a whole i do feel, without a way to better explain it, that Pooky is probably town.

[Chara]

And I mean, feel free to put me to work here too. This isn't a one way street.

i don't feel a need to put you to work when you're doing quite a bit of it on your own, Prism.

and yes, i really like how you put it in 1333. that's a good way of articulating my problem with the post.

do you find a redtea/Tanner team likely?

[Chara]

i should sleep, i just wanted to look at Pooky's catboi case before i did so.

i appreciate the affirmation that you enjoy my presence in this game, too.

[Prism]

I'll comb back over 610 and give my perspective on it. First, to answer the start, rereading the thread I actively hated all of the early spare pushes and was like "Okay this dude really is Chara, why on earth did I swing to townreading him? He's only kicking into gear when it's clear he might actually have to do something". I also liked the catboi engagement less on reread, where I was digging more into faith and a little less into his game explanation/the strategic comment I found there.

Chara generally just has to not get eliminated Day 1, which is pretty easy and the bar is on the floor. If a scum fight happens, or someone actively starts pushing them a la catboi, they

really

have to kick into gear and not blow the only job they have.

[Prism]

I'll look over Tanner/redtea specifically to see the interactions after I go back over 610 but I wouldn't be surprised by most combos of the 5 I listed. Maybe like, Tanner/Lavender or redtea/Pooky.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

pretty sure it's better for scum if chara gets elim'd than a mafia on D1 ?

[Prism]

This is going to be really hard to sort without quotewalling, I'll tackle it in forms of catboi post numbers quoted+responded to by Pooky in 610.

So for the start, I don't think it's really scummy but to pose a counterpoint to you saying it's town...claiming to be acting in good faith, and extending open invitations of goodwill in the form of questions, is pretty standard scumplay. I don't really see "Question me if you think I'm being dishonest!" as evidence they're being honest.

The entire post is very "none of this is from a town perspective from the get go". For 370, I don't think "But why would scum oppose town strategically like that? Catboi thinking I'm scummy for it is weak and he isn't asking me questions about it" is really persuasive. Pooky had been talking plenty about why he felt spares were correct-what everyone in the game was interested in and pressing him for was

reads

. His attack on 430 from catboi centers on catboi correctly pointing out that Pooky resisted persistent pressure from multiple people, primarily me, to discuss players/reads. The focus on "Why doesn't he question me more on my spare strategy?" is again missing the point, and pushing someone for interactions with others that they don't like is perfectly valid as town.

Pooky's highlighting of 451 I brought up previously, but when Pooky wants to talk mechanics/strategy, it's totally fine to pose an entirely new question in response like this, especially mechanically. The natural response to asserting that you don't have to worry about fighting Hectic in a spare scenario is "Why don't we have to worry about sparing Hectic scum, though?". Pooky explains why he's not worried here, but calling this shifting the goalposts and that it doesn't come from a town perspective is a stretch. Bonus that this is directly engaging with Pooky's discussion of strategy: catboi sees Pooky believes something, questions it, gets a response, and asks a followup.

I've always thought Pooky's reaction to 452 was tinfoil. Catboi has made clear what bothers him about Pooky and why in multiple posts at this point. Exclaiming that Catboi didn't explain that CATBOI believed him to be scum in the same post (which catboi did, by saying he agreed with voting Pooky, and he clearly gave his reasoning in previous posts) is really going fishing here. 468, about Coalition, I agree catboi should have elaborated. But assuming he didn't because he's scum is working backwards. I glanced over the game on reread and came away saying "Yeah, catboi is kind of right, tonally this looks similar"

The reaction to 571 is a bit overblown. As town this is coming from someone who doesn't realize exactly how frustrating it was to have him stonewall us on the content front for eons. If you're not going to give reads after multiple players request you too, then yeah, you're going to earn shit for it and you're going to get votes for it until you actually engage with us. If catboi's best guess based on the spare push is that you're scum,

and you adamantly refuse to give us anything else

, then what do you expect him to do?

I don't really see it as implausible that he reacted very harshly in adjustment to his initial strategy not working out. I've obviously spent a lot of this post playing the part of catboi's guardian angel, giving him the benefit of the doubt and his intentions so crystal clear and good, but I really don't think much if any was given at all in that post. Whether that initial strategy is likely or not is an open question.

[Prism]

pretty sure it's better for scum if chara gets elim'd than a mafia on D1 ?

My instinct is that it's better for mafia to get eliminated over Chara. Two mafia have to get voted at any point in the game. Chara leaves the game optimally for the role after one misfight. One scum has to never get fought, one has to only dodge it for a day vs. both have to dodge it every day. I don't really feel like punching the numbers though.

[Prism]

Re: Chara there's a lot of engagement between Tanner/redtea, I don't feel like grabbing post numbers but I'd consider just Ctrl+F searching their names in each. Tanner also immediately brought up a problem with redtea at the start of the day. Unlikely team imo.

[Prism]

That's probably going to wrap it up from me for the night. I'll try to be in tomorrow, but I'm happy with what I've done for the day.

And maybe with a bit more time I can actually lock Pooky/Tanner as town

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

pretty sure it's better for scum if chara gets elim'd than a mafia on D1 ?

My instinct is that it's better for mafia to get eliminated over Chara. Two mafia have to get voted at any point in the game. Chara leaves the game optimally for the role after one misfight. One scum has to never get fought, one has to only dodge it for a day vs. both have to dodge it every day. I don't really feel like punching the numbers though.

the way I thought about it is, I'm much happier when Ele flipped mafia instead of chara - because even tho I was wrong about him being Chara - we still get a Chara-flip today if we miss, whereas if he was Chara we wouldn't have that extra information touchpoint to look foward to on D2.

Anyway have a good night.

[Prism]

8/10*6/7*4/5*1/2=27.4% scum win (Mafia voted Day 1)
7/9*5/7*3/5=33.33% scum win (Chara voted Day 1)

It is indeed better to hit mafia Day 1. Wack.

[Prism]

To hit Chara, sorry

[Prism]

You asking about the scum perspective but me using "hitting" like from a town perspective has me all twisted but you get the point

Night bear, night Chara

[Tanner]

okay this thread is actually active again. okay i will put at least some effort into this game goddammit.

i'm gonna like... ignore the spare posts for now because we do not need another 5 paragraphs of me arguing about that

not really worth much. pooky as chara is kindr of interesting, kind of distanced from a few slots, redtea/taylor/lavendar maybe most notable

what is noteable about those three? the fact he put them in "eh/who?"? do you think that is + or - partners?

1269 and 1271 are a mood... nope, it's too early in the morning to drink.

After being suspicious of Pooky, I went to look at Tanner, whose interactions with Elements were early and

totally fine

. The only issues are that he gave beeboy a chance to post content and said the wagon was a bit too fast. Somebody call 911 on him. He also shuts down the Tayl0r vote so unless this it's Tayl0r/Tanner ???

I feel like if there's a deepscum it's one of those two but at this point there might not even be one. I just feel bad for still being cautious of Pooky for his early game despite obvious strong play.

am i insane? am i seriously crazy for thinking that the pretty much only wagon on day one, a deadline consolidation with no serious counters and almost no resistance (and the late counters/resistance coming from me/catboi, so confirmed town to me) flipping scum, in a game where a day one scumflip is so damaging to scum, that wagon flipping scum is at least a little bit concerning? like just a tiny bit of a possibility of some 9000 iq theatre bus happening?

also i'm finding it p funny that scum!me would be classified as deepscum in this game.

Tanner-can you talk more about your Puppy vote? I remember liking a lot of their interactions with Elements in hindsight. I also really don't see the point in pushing for a spare from them unless it is exactly Puppy+Chara...which I find really unlikely.

Any explanation you can give on how you've thought about redtea/Sujimichi would also be really helpful here imo

sure. i was already of the thought that "this game is either really easy or there's something concerning going on." and puppy's posts from 1084-1092 just... creeped me out, i dunno, they feel like they belong in the latter gamestate. i wanted to see if he got better, and... he didn't? like i think i'm bringing up a valid concern about the possibility of an *actual* deepscum (though if you feel like i'm not, tell me, because at this point i can't tell myself) and why sparing right now is very dangerous, and i kinda find it odd they didn't interact with it further than "scum wouldn't buss day one, it's silly."

and 1225 is also kinda :/ since it was made right after hectic and i were talking and where it seemed i was a viable vote for today...

ok. at first i vaguely liked redtea, and was also half sheeping you/catboi since i was townreading you two and you seemed to have a dope metaread there so whatever, you're probably better at reading them than i am. somewhere along middle/late day one, i was reskimming their iso again, and realized i plainly don't remember why i was so town on them? and after the flip, i decided to at least take a loot at the people off-wagon during the night, and uhhh, redtea wan't *great* (1064). also obviously not thrilled about suji.

ok posting before this turns into a bigger wall