FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Cabd]

Vote Count D2-5

With 12 players alive, it will take 7 votes to eliminate a player.

Moon Cancer (3): Berserker, Saber, Caster
Lancer (2): Foreigner, Rider
Saber (1): Lancer

Phase Page Usage: 14/60

Day two will end in: (expired on 2020-09-27 22:00:00)

[Servant Ruler]

Welcome Ruler 3.0! Are you caught up?

3.0?

May my grand Dynasty last a great while longer than those pathetic posers.
I am the true Ruler, and none other. Forget whatever you knew about them!

That said, no. I an doing that now though.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Assassin is our Honorable Innocent Child. They're a trust-able player to ask for cliff notes if you want/need them.

[Servant Ruler]

Assassin is our Honorable Innocent Child. They're a trust-able player to ask for cliff notes if you want/need them.

Excellent. A trustworthy servant who I can actually gain meaningful information from.

This pleases me. Bring forth this noble assassin, and keep an eye on him. His type are rarely to be trusted, despite their pleas of innocence.
(that's just flavor. Of course I would like to hear from them! I'll read Day Two as well and see what else I need to know)

[Servant Assassin]

So, on Beast:

In 254 they express concern about moon wanting them to "feed them a read" when moon agreed with them about their archer/alter ego scumread but asked if they were seeing what moon was seeing, which seems a townish sort of distrust, feels less likely for that to be the first impulse of a scum player. Read of avenger in 259 makes decent sense, them liking avenger for "stopping of that mechanic claim" is consistent with their overall distrust toward claiming things demonstrated throughout the game. Also continues to take digs at archer, while it's likely archer was bussed I give Beast some credit for being on him early. I made a joke about 593 being them trying to get scumread at the time, but I didn't actually scumread it, just suspected that was the type of post other people might jump on. Actually felt the attitude of 'I don't care what anyone thinks, screw you all, I'm town' to be more likely to come from an independent-minded townie than a scum player trying to be townread. This is reinforced by the "I town read myself more than you" in 625. Slight paranoia toward Avenger's hard sell in 648 is fine although not difficult to fake especially seeing as 'cautious unease' was something a lot of people expressed toward Avenger. After I was mastered, 1314's "I'm just going to skip by the part where I asked for anyone but you for master, if that's ok." and 1352's "not feeling great about being wrong." feel like a townie who's been a bit humbled by a read being off. 1320's "This also describes me to be fair, and I'm town." when I explained the (wrong) reasons for shielder to be scumread also feels more like a townie admission, hard to see scum coming in saying 'the things this person is being scumread for also apply to me'. Them being willing to sheep a townread in Berserker in 1599 is okay, I don't ncessarily have a problem with sheeping there especially as that was partly my own thinking as well, but if Caster is town then it looks not quite as good. Lack of confidence in their own reads in 1718/1724/1725 also feels like the sentiment of an unsure townie rather than scum trying to hang back and drive an agenda. In addition, the way they express how their avenger townread has "waned" in 1724, explained in 1730 as distrusting his power claim and their further suspicion and distrust of it in 1734 1738 and 1744 comes across as the real thoughts of someone reading the game and trying to evaluate. That type of paranoia toward someone who was otherwise a universal townread is just much more likely to come from town than scum here I think. Caps it off with 1747's "I'm not scum reading you on total. I'm just not as strongly town reading you anymore." which is a decently nuanced thought. The immediate test of shielder's claim in 1814 I'm neutral on, immediate impulse is to say scum wouldn't have any idea the predecessor was lying but I've seen scum pull tests like that and it could have just as easily been a play for towncred so I'd treat it as a neutral action at best. Other people have faulted her for her hardline 180 on shielder but I'm kind of neutral on it. Not really particularly enthused by 2490 just being a list of names without much support though, feels salad-y. Would need some clarity on how beast got to thse players being the list of names they're willing to eliminate. The expression in 2494 of "would prefer the Saber wagon over anyone honestly" is interesting, though.

So ultimately all in all I feel fairly decent about Beast being town, actually? But would appreciate some more clarity from them on their reads right now.

@Beast:

Why did you you say you'd prefer the Saber wagon over anyone? Do you feel that way now that I've shifted the momentum in that direction? Do you still dislike Caster? What was that read based on?

[Servant Assassin]

I should go back to look at who else was jumping on Shielder early. If we accept the theory that scum was likely setting them up to be pushed, I doubt Archer was the only scum that jumped on them. Early votes there were foreigner/avenger/caster, though, and I don't really scumread any of them, I'd be looking more at someone who was shading Shielder but didn't jump right away, I suppose. Assuming the other scum stayed away from the Village Idiot wagon for posturing.

[Servant Assassin]

Assassin is our Honorable Innocent Child. They're a trust-able player to ask for cliff notes if you want/need them.

Excellent. A trustworthy servant who I can actually gain meaningful information from.

This pleases me. Bring forth this noble assassin, and keep an eye on him. His type are rarely to be trusted, despite their pleas of innocence.
(that's just flavor. Of course I would like to hear from them! I'll read Day Two as well and see what else I need to know)

I can provide a summary and answer questions if you'd like. In all honesty your slot is probably not in a great position as its last occupant was lurk-heavy and not especially townish in what they did say, although you're unlikely to get eliminated today.

[Servant Avenger]

Okay I need a tentative name.

[Servant Assassin]

Saber. Very comfortable with that vote given what's transpired today. Working on putting together a list and some analysis right now, actually feel decent-ish with regard to naming 6 townreads which should be enough to sew the game up. Will give Ruler's replacement a chance to post out of courtesy, want to hear back from Beast as well. Should finish interaction analysis with Archer just for the sake of it, and I think that should complete the agenda for today.

[Servant Avenger]

Done.

VOTE: Servant Saber

[Servant Avenger]

I am going to state that I will give Berserker one controlled vote as I feel indebted and genuinely bad about it. I ask however, that this not be on Caster, or Rider (or me!), Or assassin, or berserker.

[Servant Assassin]

As of right now I feel fairly good about the following names:

Town Reads (Strongest -> Weakest)

Foreigner
Alter Ego
Avenger
Caster
Berserker
Moon Cancer

If I'm right on all of these, the game is won, if I'm wrong on only 1 it should hopefully be resolvable through mechanics.

[jump cut to Berserker seeing this list and screaming]

Can go in depth on any of these, will probably need to with Moon Cancer but the short of it is that I just don't see someone playing...the way they are...as scum. They've had little moments I liked as well, things I wouldn't necessarily expect scum to do. For Avenger/Alter Ego in particular there's interaction stuff with Archer that make me think less likely to be aligned that I'll try to get into.

Outside that list I only

really

suspect Saber and Ruler, with Beast/Rider/Lancer giving me reasons to have doubt. For Rider, I think the most towny moment he's had was getting a bit perturbed with Avenger toward the end of the master phase? My townreads in Avenger and Alter Ego trust him but I haven't seen what they're seeing (RIP my brilliant idiotic solve of Caster/Rider/Shielder). If Lancer is scum, Rider looks a lot better, if Lancer's town I would be very skeptical of Rider.

[Servant Beast]

@Beast: Why did you you say you'd prefer the Saber wagon over anyone? Do you feel that way now that I've shifted the momentum in that direction? Do you still dislike Caster? What was that read based on?

Oh man... A whole post dedicated to me. Senpai noticed me!

Anyway... The slot tried to spread doubt on the archer wagon while it was happening and disappeared toward the end of it. Minor offense. My biggest irk of theirs I didn't comment when it happened because it involved me. With all the indecision happening while the shielder caster lancer wagons were building, they jumped in with a vote on me. That was so pointless when clearly the room had decided it was going to be between those three. They really did minimal amount of work around those three. I'm also not a fan of the slots day 1 use of the master vote to root out a scum.

I'm for a saber vote for sure.

VOTE: Saber

Casters AtE is a big turn off. Yea i'm pretty sus over them lately. I'll give it time though.

[Servant Avenger]

Beast, why do you think that Saber is more likely to be scum with his root out scum philosophy, than the mainstream one?

[Servant Beast]

Beast, why do you think that Saber is more likely to be scum with his root out scum philosophy, than the mainstream one?

Are you talking about the day 0 strategy?

[Servant Beast]

Hit post when I didn't mean too, continued:

Its what I would have done if I was scum and wanted the master. Say I want to scum hunt with it and then vote my partner so I can live and get those sweet sweet buffs.

[Servant Avenger]

You said you weren't a fan of his day 1(master phase, but nevertheeless) plan to root out scum. This comment was blocked together in the paragraph where you listed out reasons you think Saber might be scum. but I don't understand what the reason is for scum reading him for that.

[Servant Avenger]

I see.

[Servant Alter Ego]

As of right now I feel fairly good about the following names:

Town Reads (Strongest -> Weakest)

Foreigner
Alter Ego
Avenger
Caster
Berserker
Moon Cancer

If I'm right on all of these, the game is won, if I'm wrong on only 1 it should hopefully be resolvable through mechanics.

[jump cut to Berserker seeing this list and screaming]

Can go in depth on any of these, will probably need to with Moon Cancer but the short of it is that I just don't see someone playing...the way they are...as scum. They've had little moments I liked as well, things I wouldn't necessarily expect scum to do. For Avenger/Alter Ego in particular there's interaction stuff with Archer that make me think less likely to be aligned that I'll try to get into.

Outside that list I only

really

suspect Saber and Ruler, with Beast/Rider/Lancer giving me reasons to have doubt. For Rider, I think the most towny moment he's had was getting a bit perturbed with Avenger toward the end of the master phase? My townreads in Avenger and Alter Ego trust him but I haven't seen what they're seeing (RIP my brilliant idiotic solve of Caster/Rider/Shielder). If Lancer is scum, Rider looks a lot better, if Lancer's town I would be very skeptical of Rider.

While I'm alive y'all aren't messing with Rider. When I'm dead, you won't want to.

[Servant Lancer]

I'm not totally sold on Caster-town. There's something that feels out of balance in his game behavior. He's so salty about getting pushed. But he's pretty gleeful about piling on to other players being pressured.

I also think this could be personality. Obligatory secret alt game caveat but I didn't get the same feeling of falseness when Caster was talking about his own play as I did originally. It's not a read I'm fully happy with but being salty about a push is pretty standard for a lot of types of players. I know you're commenting on that in comparison to being happy to push wagons but I don't really see how they connect.

I am somewhat concerned that Lancer keeps coming in late and echoing other people but he has a point about Saber's read on him which doesn't quite feel organic, in addition to everything else. At any rate he's playing ball and Saber...isn't, so much, and Lancer has had more town sounding posts. If Saber is town Lancer remains firmly in the PoE regardless. Think we'll be okay so long as I end today with a solid list of townreads.

What am I echoing? I was posting as I was getting caught up.

did you even do anything between saber flipping his read on you?

Nothing I could see, Saber went from going back and forth and tonally townreading me to being fine with eliminating me today and I don't see him actually exploring the read.
I'd be interested to see what he has to say about it.

[Servant Avenger]

Alterego, what's your read on me and why?

[Servant Saber]

My work took off like a rocket and it's date night tonight.

I'll try to be back tomorrow afternoon.

[Servant Avenger]

Okay, have fun Saber.

[Servant Lancer]

I like Rider for town, why is he more likely scum if I'm town?

[Servant Lancer]

There was supposed to be a quote there. that's @ Assassin.