FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

What's your scum pool, Lancer?

[Servant Avenger]

Have you ever mentioned you liked Rider for town?
Why the swing?

[Servant Lancer]

What's your scum pool, Lancer?

Saber, and some combination of you, Beast, and Ruler right now.

My townlist isn't 100% firmed up but I'd confidently say there's no scum in Berserker or Alter Ego. Avenger is probably also not scum but they feel like the type of player I'm always going to be a little paranoid about.
Rider I TR and don't particularly find scummy so I'm curious about the SRs I've seen from a few players.

@Avenger - I dunno, I don't think I've talked about Rider a lot but I haven't SRed him, I think his takes make sense.

[Servant Assassin]

I like Rider for town, why is he more likely scum if I'm town?

You've been the player in the POE he's been most consistently pushing toward eliminating, and if we have you town and a couple other players in there as scum then it's concerning you're the one he went after.

[Servant Lancer]

Oh I do also townread Foreigner from early game stuff and as a result I haven't paid much attention to new Foreigner. I should though.

[Servant Lancer]

I like Rider for town, why is he more likely scum if I'm town?

You've been the player in the POE he's been most consistently pushing toward eliminating, and if we have you town and a couple other players in there as scum then it's concerning you're the one he went after.

I'll be the first to admit I still don't have the best grasp on every part of the gamestate, but is Rider significant in pushing me? Or is he just the player you townread least who is?
Rider's reason for SRing me is currwntly the only one I can remember offhand.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Alterego, what's your read on me and why?

Town. I townread you on stances most of Day 0. I had flickers of paranoia about how hard you went after the buff but not nearly enough to actually think you're scum.

I voted assassin over you because, from their progressions I felt like they would do really well leading Day 1 and 2, would have good reads, make good choices on who to master, and would use the IC to good effect. Part of that came down to the model I was using of who their posts remind me of. I'm 99.9999% sure the model is not the player, but it led me to a really good place.

When it looked like Assassin didn't want the buff, I spent a few hours going crazy re-isoing you and caster. My conclusion was that caster, if town as I thought, would have some of the same drawbacks I see in myself with the buff. If Assassin hadn't changed his mind I would have voted you. I was literally minutes away from moving my vote.

(I hated having the extra responsibility of likely also moving Foreigner's vote. And that's the responsibility I knew I wouldn't handle well if I got the buff.)

Not exactly what you asked,

But, here's an iso analysis of Day 0

Spoiler:

10. Avenger
8 VOTE: Avenger
19 High confidence that town will get the buff.
30 The campaign begins
60 Townreads: Berserker
70 Implicit scumread: Foreigner? (picks a side in the 1v1)
97-112 I just get a sense here that nothing matters but the buff.
~tons of setup/mechanics spec~
173 Not scumreading Foreigner
194 - 197 scumhunts Archer wow
202 implies a super strong townread of Foreigner
207, 213 Foreigner read basis comes out in back and forth with Archer
267 explanation for post 19
279 Doesn't like my townread of assassin, rider. "watching caster". Like they're focused on potential rivals for the buff
281 Just 2 posts later "Caster you're looking good to me so far".
283 is a sort of line of questioning stopper.
325, 331 helping shielder into the game. that dumb catchup help scumtell that's ALWAYS wrong. still, it's overly helpful, somewhat narrative setting, and perhaps done in order to further the aim of getting the buff.
335 pushback on my tinder post. Perhaps not the way to engage me if the overriding objective is to gain my vote?
343 some analysis. Assassin read is a little hedgy maybe? Re Assassin: "He’s experienced enough that I’m cautious about giving him too strong a read too early. The Rider read in some ways feels too rosy? The stuff he claims to like for the most part is not stuff that I was townreading Rider for. It was more the readiness to engage with me whenever I had questions or he disagreed with me, along with liking where he pushed back and where he agreed. E.G. I townread for stuff that knocks his read down "His reads are pretty grounded, his questions are dull and this is part of what keeps me from leaning town on him.. He’s looking at what people want and their reads and negotiating those reads." OTOH Moon Caster may agree more with him on this!
400 Analysis of Moon Cancer's shares about role. "Hilariously transparent" -- ON THIS ONE TOPIC. obscure as fuck on just about everything else.
~Catchup/Q&A stuff here
531 2 readslists. Group 1 is scummy/null? (Beast, Saber, Shielder, Rider, Archer Lancer, Mooncancer, Ruler)
647 Scumread: Rider
678 Townread Alter Ego
679 reasons for townread
1139 Hammervotes Assassin

Sadly, I haven't had the time/motivation to continue dissecting the game like this since early day 1 and I've shifted focus to trying to improve null/scumreads, not continue to laud townreads. I'm unfairly relying on the Hero Town Deserves more than I should.

[Servant Avenger]

Has your read of me being town increased or decreased significantly from day 1 or day 2?

[Servant Avenger]

What's your scum pool, Lancer?

Saber, and some combination of you, Beast, and Ruler right now.

My townlist isn't 100% firmed up but I'd confidently say there's no scum in Berserker or Alter Ego. Avenger is probably also not scum but they feel like the type of player I'm always going to be a little paranoid about.
Rider I TR and don't particularly find scummy so I'm curious about the SRs I've seen from a few players.

@Avenger - I dunno, I don't think I've talked about Rider a lot but I haven't SRed him, I think his takes make sense.

You dunno.

[Servant Lancer]

You asked me if I mentioned townreading Rider before. I don't remember if I did say it in the thread.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Has your read of me being town increased or decreased significantly from day 1 or day 2?

Increased slightly through early day 1. Steady state since then.

[Servant Avenger]

You asked me if I mentioned townreading Rider before. I don't remember if I did say it in the thread.

Why haven't you mentioned a read on rider for master phase and 2 days into the game?

[Servant Lancer]

Idk? Nothing prompted me to talk about it until I saw assassin's post mentioning Rider and wondered about it.

[Servant Assassin]

Oh I do also townread Foreigner from early game stuff and as a result I haven't paid much attention to new Foreigner. I should though.

Foreigner unfortunately I think we're going to have to treat as a legacy read given the replacement, although their substitute has been fine. There's plenty of points in their favor for them being town but another one that just came to me is this: When they were picking up townreads during the first phase, they explicitly refused the idea of being given the master upgrade. Now, I know I had suggested at that time there was some false modesty going around, that scum were simply passing on a chance at the upgrade, but I think combined with the rest of their play it makes them likely town. To explain this: Foreigner 1 did not seem like a particularly confident player. Part of this is a little identity guesswork, but the overall tone of their posts gave that impression, plus the whole thing about being afraid of Berserker, it does not fit the profile of a player who avoided the master phase because they felt they could go through to endgame. I think had Foreigner been scum they would have ran with the townreads on them and taken the votes for the sake of not having to keep up the act. That they were meek about it makes them more likely to be town in their case.

I voted assassin over you because, from their progressions I felt like they would do really well leading Day 1 and 2, would have good reads, make good choices on who to master, and would use the IC to good effect. Part of that came down to the model I was using of who their posts remind me of. I'm 99.9999% sure the model is not the player, but it led me to a really good place.

I appreciate the vote of confidence although I've been retired for [redacted] years and so my ability to read people hasn't been great, but I'll try to do the best I can and hopefully I don't let people down.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Oh I do also townread Foreigner from early game stuff and as a result I haven't paid much attention to new Foreigner. I should though.

Foreigner unfortunately I think we're going to have to treat as a legacy read given the replacement, although their substitute has been fine. There's plenty of points in their favor for them being town but another one that just came to me is this: When they were picking up townreads during the first phase, they explicitly refused the idea of being given the master upgrade. Now, I know I had suggested at that time there was some false modesty going around, that scum were simply passing on a chance at the upgrade, but I think combined with the rest of their play it makes them likely town. To explain this: Foreigner 1 did not seem like a particularly confident player. Part of this is a little identity guesswork, but the overall tone of their posts gave that impression, plus the whole thing about being afraid of Berserker, it does not fit the profile of a player who avoided the master phase because they felt they could go through to endgame. I think had Foreigner been scum they would have ran with the townreads on them and taken the votes for the sake of not having to keep up the act. That they were meek about it makes them more likely to be town in their case.

I voted assassin over you because, from their progressions I felt like they would do really well leading Day 1 and 2, would have good reads, make good choices on who to master, and would use the IC to good effect. Part of that came down to the model I was using of who their posts remind me of. I'm 99.9999% sure the model is not the player, but it led me to a really good place.

I appreciate the vote of confidence although I've been retired for [redacted] years and so my ability to read people hasn't been great, but I'll try to do the best I can and hopefully I don't let people down.

Hilariously, so has the player I used as a model. I'm still ~eh~ about you in reality being that player. One day, we'll know!

[Servant Alter Ego]

Has your read of me being town increased or decreased significantly from day 1 or day 2?

Why did you ask this?

[Servant Avenger]

Has your read of me being town increased or decreased significantly from day 1 or day 2?

Why did you ask this?

I'm putting together puzzle pieces. And trying to predict the mod again even though I'm severely under equipped to do so.

[Servant Avenger]

Would you change your answer after you've thought about it any?

[Servant Alter Ego]

Is that a question for me?

You were a strong enough townread that I was willing to move my vote, under the pressure of possibly swinging one or two addition votes your way by sheer gravitational force. I felt like my vote would hit the scale way harder than the weight of a single vote. (I've seen this happen too many times. I'm not sure if I'm a really good harbinger of where town is about to move, or I actually have that much influence sometimes. It makes me cautious)

There's not much further up for a read to go. Your play has been consistently cagey and you keep hold of a lot of suspicions, appear to keep reevaluating, mostly with a suspicious eye.

I don't know if that's optimal town play, but damned if it isn't town play. If I'm wrong, then I should probably retire, myself.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I wish I had nearly as much conviction about scumreads as I do town. :/

[Servant Avenger]

Yes, it was a question for you. It sounds like I might be barking up the wrong tree.
It probably isn't optimal town play. I'm just shaped by my experiences and the people I played with. Though yeah, town Avenger, obviously.

I think Lancer's response to my question about Rider is bad.

[Servant Avenger]

Hi berserker. I said this already, but I am apologetic and am willing to move my vote whereever you please. Once. With the exception of the listed exceptions.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

If it turns out Assassin was trying to impersonate me in the early game, I'm going to lol

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I kinda don't like the way they talk about my slot, like they're not sure if they want to townread me or not because I'm being heavily scumread, and then today they call me consensus scum pretty confidently.

Is this the only reason you think Saber is scum?

What posts by Caster changed your mind on that read?

And which of Rider's "takes" do you like?

[Servant Lancer]

It's enough that I'm happy to push Saber and see what he does.

I quoted one of the posts by Caster I liked, but his whole reaction to Moon Cancer's reaction to Berserker's "guilty". I didn't know if I should townread it but it gave me the same feeling his earlygame posts did and prompted me to rethink the stuff I didn't like end of day 1. Emotional posting a few times is one thing but the fact that Caster's done it multiple times in response to different things and I've felt the same way instinctively, makes me more willing to want to give him another shot and see what he does going forward.

The stuff I didn't like about Caster (lack of followthrough, disconnect between thinking he should be obvtown to assassin and how he talked to me when I pushed him on the former) could be personality and the fact he's stuck to his guns on it adds to that a bit.