Mini 627 - Riverworld Smalltown - Over!!!

[shaft.ed]

Wait scratch the SK comment above. It'd be too risky for armlx to use his vig and have a possible two other NK's flip. Then he'd have to be the SK. Level of concern downgraded.

[armlx]

I see what you're getting at, but I'm really uncomfortable with it since if you are scum you get to 1) survive today's lynch since you have to be alive at night to exacute your plan 2) score a mislynch, 3) kill two people at night with your vig power and 4) possibly perform a NK if you're the SK. This means you get rid of four players if your the SK in a single day/night cycle. That makes me rather uncomfortable.

Where did I specify I was automatically disqualified from being lynched? If people find me suspicious, they can force me to self kill as the 3rd lynch. And how is that plan of actions any more dangerous if I was the SK compared to you just being lynched today?

I'd much rather just get lynched than sign up for this plan.

I don't know what I think about this.

[shaft.ed]

armlx see my follow up post.

And I didn't know one could self vig.

I'm thinking about the utility of your plan. It might work actually.

[armlx]

Just to confirm.

Mod, can I self-vig?

It'd be too risky for armlx to use his vig and have a possible two other NK's flip. Then he'd have to be the SK.

How so? And its 3 other NK's, there are still 2 living scum groups.

[shaft.ed]

Just to confirm.

Mod, can I self-vig?

It'd be too risky for armlx to use his vig and have a possible two other NK's flip. Then he'd have to be the SK.

How so? And its 3 other NK's, there are still 2 living scum groups.

Well if you didn't realize it, then I guess it doesn't much apply. The quote of mine above should be clarified to ..."too risky for SKarmlx"...

[armlx]

I honestly am befuddled as to what you are talking about here.

[shaft.ed]

Crap, my math is totally off. Forget that whole line of reasoning, it only works for differentiating mafiaarmlx from town/SKarmlx. Not differentiating town/mafiaarmlx from SKarmlx as I had initially thought.

[curiouskarmadog]

Just to confirm.

Mod, can I self-vig?

yes

[armlx]

Crap, my math is totally off. Forget that whole line of reasoning, it only works for differentiating mafiaarmlx from town/SKarmlx. Not differentiating town/mafiaarmlx from SKarmlx as I had initially thought.

Yeah, the whole SK using ability + kill makes things interesting.

[Alabaska J]

Well, then we lynch NabNab today?

unvote, vote: NabakovNabakov

shaft.ed could hide behind me as I'm basically vanilla now. I'm also suspected by people. What do you think? shaft.ed behind me and armlx vigs me; we both die. NabNab gets lynched and town wins (hopefully)!

[armlx]

shaft.ed could hide behind me as I'm basically vanilla now. I'm also suspected by people. What do you think? shaft.ed behind me and armlx vigs me; we both die. NabNab gets lynched and town wins (hopefully)!

We should think about these actions a bit before we do them, but ATM I think this is the optimal plan.

[Rishi]

Posting in all my games: Back home, but things are a bit hectic right now. Will get caught up in my games tomorrow.

[iamausername]

I haven't run through every possibility, but I think we might just be able to guarantee ourselves a win by combining this new plan with armlx's original plan.

lynch NabNab
shaft.ed hides behind Alabaska
armlx vigs Alabaska
Rishi motivates me
I jail Claus and M4yhem
TSPN (obviously) finds out who killed Twomz
Cyberbob tracks one of me/armlx/Rishi (not sure which is the optimum at the moment)

Assuming worst case scenario, NabNab shows up town, there's a mafia and an SK left to screw with the plan.

If Alabaska is scum, he'll be dead anyway, so no problem there.
If shaft.ed is scum, he'll be dead if he follows the plan, and we'll lynch him tomorrow if he doesn't; no problem there.

So, is there any combination of two of the other seven players as SK/mafia that would still be able to screw us over if we go by this plan?

[Alabaska J]

Cyberbob shouldn't track armlx; it should be fairly easy to see if he deviates.

Rishi is also a waste as you will be able to confirm him.

I think Cyberbob should track iamausername.

[armlx]

I'm deciding whether announcing who they are targeting is better then not doing it for IAUN and Cyber.

[Cyberbob]

I can possibly see me announcing my target, but I don't think IAUN should.

[shaft.ed]

Cyberbob, could you post your top three serial killer suspects?

[shaft.ed]

Cyberbob shouldn't track armlx; it should be fairly easy to see if he deviates.

Rishi is also a waste as you will be able to confirm him.

I think Cyberbob should track iamausername.

The point isn't to determine if armlx vig'd anyone or not, it's to determine if he is the SK. Obviously if the SK is lynched he shouldn't be tracked.

Also if you guys still want to go forward with the plan may I suggest swapping out Alabaska and NabNab. If Alabaska comes up mafia, then we can resort to a back up plan where NabNab picks up the inventor role in the night and this allows us for more options regarding TSPN finding the SK.

mod: If NabNab were to pick up Alabaska's ability tonight, when he officially obtain the extra life?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I'd say the other way around. If claus or mayhem is scum, they can't really do anything about being jailkept. But being tracked might certainly change behavior.

We could keep the WIFOM of whether or not IAUN is going to jail me, but, in retrospect, the SK pretty much has to target me anyway.

[shaft.ed]

The point isn't to determine if armlx vig'd anyone or not, it's to determine if he is the SK. Obviously if the SK is lynched he shouldn't be tracked.

Also if Cyberbob is in fact telling the truth about tracking armlx yesterday, there is no need to retrack since he'd have already outed the SK.

[iamausername]

The point isn't to determine if armlx vig'd anyone or not, it's to determine if he is the SK. Obviously if the SK is lynched he shouldn't be tracked.

Also if Cyberbob is in fact telling the truth about tracking armlx yesterday, there is no need to retrack since he'd have already outed the SK.

This is an excellent point. OK, so, if Cyberbob tracks me, then unless the SK is Cyberbob or Rishi, he'll be caught (or killed) by the plan I outlined above.

[curiouskarmadog]

mod: If NabNab were to pick up Alabaska's ability tonight, when he officially obtain the extra life?

he would get that particular passive ability that night.

[armlx]

Also if Cyberbob is in fact telling the truth about tracking armlx yesterday, there is no need to retrack since he'd have already outed the SK.

Good call. That means both people he claimed to track are clear unless he is mafia.

[iamausername]

Oh yeah, he tracked me too! OK, Cyberbob tracks Rishi, and the SK is caught for sure, no?

[Cyberbob]

Cyberbob, could you post your top three serial killer suspects?

Well, you would be at the top, followed by Nabakov and maybe TSPN (though that's rather weak).