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[Nosferatu]

VOTE: gamma

[Frogsterking]

For what it's worth, I also have quite a strong scumread on Looker at this point. #1384 looks pretty bad after the Raya flip, in addition to #802…#825 looking bad after the shelly flip.

If the remaining scum aren't RCEnigma + Looker, I think Gamma and geraintm are the next most likely possibilities, but have no particular reason to think that either of them are scum.

As do your own actions around the shelly flip discussed yesterday and your post 1493 around the Raya flip:

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

If your read is that strong, I'm willing to sheep it, even though I don't have a scumread on Raya myself (especially as my current scumreads aren't all that strong).

VOTE: Raya

[callforjudgement]

On Day 1, my reads were wrong and Tayl0r's were right.

On Day 2, we'd reached a deadlock, and my reads weren't all that strong. So I was interested in sheeping players who I believed to be town and had strong reads. I held off on voting Raya for as long as I did primarily because I wasn't sure whether Nosferatu's and Tayl0r's votes were just weak PoE votes or strongly held reads.

I previously explained this in #1274.

[Frogsterking]

On Day 1, my reads were wrong and Tayl0r's were right.

On Day 2, we'd reached a deadlock, and my reads weren't all that strong. So I was interested in sheeping players who I believed to be town and had strong reads. I held off on voting Raya for as long as I did primarily because I wasn't sure whether Nosferatu's and Tayl0r's votes were just weak PoE votes or strongly held reads.

I previously explained this in #1274.

And how is this excuse different from Looker's?

[Frogsterking]

Or in other words, if Looker makes the same excuse, why should I believe you over him?

[callforjudgement]

(PEDIT: followup to #1577)

I should also point out that you were acting similarly; your vote was "virtually" on the Raya wagon, seeing as you'd given intent to hammer repeatedly, most clearly in #1498. So was mine as of #1274, and I moved it when it was clear that my stated conditions to move my vote were met. And you joined the virtual votes on Raya much later than I did.

You need to stop tunnelling; accusing something of being a scumtell when you did it yourself means that you aren't thinking clearly, because if you did it yourself (knowing that you're town) then it's clearly something that can come from town. You probably didn't realise that the situation was the same, but that's because you were tunnelling and thus assuming things about the situation rather than thinking about them.

I

strongly

recommend that you reread the game under the assumption that I'm town. Even if you continue to maintain me as scum afterwards, it would make your reads on

other

players more accurate. Don't ever vote other players based on conclusions drawn from the assumption that I'm scum; that sort of behaviour may well be how the Raya wagon built up momentum. If you have conclusions based on me as scum, please only aim them at me; at least that way your reads will be more accurate on future days after you re-evaluate, as opposed to the potential for repeatedly flipping innocent townies based on incorrect assumptions and

still

holding a scumread on me

[callforjudgement]

Or in other words, if Looker makes the same excuse, why should I believe you over him?

You should follow the reasoning that players stated at the time, if available, rather than after-the-fact reasoning.

Looker's vote for Raya is in #1384. It appears to be written as a lurker-vote, plus a bit of "agreeing with" Tayl0r and not with Walter. This is strange as a sheep vote given stated reads (he hadn't stated a read on either for a while, but #962 shows scepticism of Tayl0r and I can't see anything to contradict that read in between). Reads evolve, but if Looker had a strong enough townread on Tayl0r to trust her judgement, I would expect him to have mentioned it at some point.

Incidentally, Looker calls me scum in #1479 for

not

voting Raya, which is an interesting form of soft pressure in retrospect. #1416 contains similar pressure, although not directed specifically at me.

[callforjudgement]

Actually, take geraintm out of my PoE for good (this is me upgrading a town read to locktown). #824/#830 can't possibly come from a geraintm/shelly scumteam unless Walter is on it too, and #828 doesn't come from a geraintm/Walter team because it would be too much of a risk.

Between #826 and #828, Walter was only one vote (quite possibly Looker's, based on what was publicly known of his reads) away from an almost certain flip. All a hypothetically scum geraintm had to do to get a townflip at the time, therefore, was nothing. The Walter wagon would almost certainly get over the line before the shelly wagon did, especially given the existence of a deadline rush. geraintm might well not get credit from a shelly flip, and would be unlikely to get the blame from a Walter flip. So there was very little scum motivation not to just wait.

[Frogsterking]

As far as I'm concerned I've voted scum correctly both days now while you have done the opposite. There is no similarity the way you're framing it. You're trying to use AtE to guilt me into second guessing myself.

After Raya's claim I was heavily expecting Raya to flip town and would only have hammered her to prevent a nolynch. I believe Raya should have claimed much earlier than she did.

I've never seen a town!player be as convinced as you are that another player who is tunneling them is town. It's unbelievable play.

You say that I'm /italic still /italic holding a scum read on you as though continuing to vote townies will earn you a town read for some reason.

If the goal of your post was to change my mind then it was unsuccessful.

[Frogsterking]

I will read your posts explaining how your excuses are any better than something Looker could say after I get some sleep.

[ItalianoVD]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are. I’m guessing the night kill happened for two reasons:

1) The scum were more scared of Taylor’s ability than mine or
2) I was off in my scumreads/not a threat to them right now.

I think we need to hit scum today and I think we can/will, but I’m pissed! Why’d we take out all the women in this town?

[ItalianoVD]

For what it's worth, I also have quite a strong scumread on Looker at this point. #1384 looks pretty bad after the Raya flip, in addition to #802…#825 looking bad after the shelly flip.

Not really. If he scumread her.

If the remaining scum aren't RCEnigma + Looker, I think Gamma and geraintm are the next most likely possibilities, but have no particular reason to think that either of them are scum.

I don’t think it’s either. Probably Gamma.

[ItalianoVD]

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

Did you really read it right?

[ItalianoVD]

Looker's vote for Raya is in #1384. It appears to be written as a lurker-vote, plus a bit of "agreeing with" Tayl0r and not with Walter. This is strange as a sheep vote given stated reads (he hadn't stated a read on either for a while, but #962 shows scepticism of Tayl0r and I can't see anything to contradict that read in between). Reads evolve, but if Looker had a strong enough townread on Tayl0r to trust her judgement, I would expect him to have mentioned it at some point.

Why? Different playstyles right? Not every player writes down everything they’re thinking.

Incidentally, Looker calls me scum in #1479 for

not

voting Raya, which is an interesting form of soft pressure in retrospect. #1416 contains similar pressure, although not directed specifically at me.

Why are you framing it this way? He never called you scum for not voting Raya; he didn’t call you scum at all actually. He pointed out the hypocrisy of your perceived callout of his vanity wagoning in 1469.

[callforjudgement]

Incidentally, I've been checking SJReaver/Looker and RCEnigma in double ISO, looking for how plausible the slots are as a team.

(Note that this post is "tunnelled reads", starting by assuming that they're a team and trying to determine how consistent the theory is, i.e. the same thing I've been accusing Frogster of doing. So even though the post looks overwhelmingly bad for them, it should be taken with a pinch of salt.)

It starts very early on, with #95 and #99. I've picked up weak scumtells from SJReaver, and acknowledged that they're weak. RCEnigma defends him just a little harder than would seem warranted in the situation. Incidentally, I expressed scumreads on all of SJReaver, RCEnigma and Banana(=shelly) in #119. If those reads turn out to be correct, no wonder I got attacked early (e.g. #216, #215/#216 being SJReaver's next posts after I posted it)!

#118 also looks bad in this situation, an "obviously nonserious vote" that nonetheless shows up on the vote count. In the past, scum used to use these really frequently when distancing. Then towns caught on, and scum generally stopped doing it, but maybe it's making a revival now that fewer people are aware of it?

#225/#231 looks quite a bit like a scum/scum interaction in retrospect. It's the sort of "safe banter" that lets you fill out your post count while looking like you're scumhunting, whilst simultaneously not doing much to give players a scumread on you or really progressing the gamestate.

(#232 seems like a relevant post. But I'm not sure what conclusions to draw for it, so I'm just going to note it for now.)

#272 looks like it's setting up for a scumread on me at a later date. It expresses "retractable townreads" on RCE and Banana, which look a little different from the read on Walter, and diverting suspicion elsewhere without any actual scumreads. If the scumteam really is SJReaver/RCEnigma/Banana, they would badly need to be ready to cause a distraction in the gamestate at the time.

In the late 300s, the wagon on me starts developing. I read #379 as townish at the time (seeing it as a pressure vote as the gamestate was stalling out). In retrospect, though, assuming RCEnigma is scum means that it could easily come from a scum SJReaver; scum needed a change to the gamestate, and would be especially interested in discrediting me.

#525 is RCEnigma's towniest post of the game (even if scum does manage to reason that scum Tayl0r likely implies town me, why mention that to the thread?), and it doesn't look any less town in this hypothetical. This is one of the reasons I'm a little torn about voting for RCEnigma. That said, RCEnigma would know that Tayl0r

wouldn't

flip scum, so the relational townread on me would be safe for scum to make, and RCEnigma immediately backpedals a little in #526.

#641 starts to retreat from the wagon on me. My reads are much worse at this point than they were at the start of the game (I now have SJReaver as town and am retreating from my RCEnigma scumread, and scumread Tayl0r and Italiano who are both now confirmed town). I am moderately easy to pocket as players go, and retreating from a scumread on me not that long after my reads get a lot worse seems like the sort of thing that scum would be likely to do.

Not only that, but #641 and #642 are a wagon out of nowhere immediately after shelly replaces in. #642 is a wagoning vote from a now-confirmed scum slot. How come #641 turns up just a few minutes before that, for shelly to wagon? This is a daytalk game, these posts look a lot in retrospect like scum decided on an Italiano wagon in their PT and then decided to make it happen in a reasonably convincing-looking way. (Soon afterwards, shelly calls Looker's #648 scummy, when most players agree that it isn't; overblowing a scumtell on your partner, so that nobody follows you, is a classic method of distancing.)

#661 is weird. I totally agree with the content of the post. But what's up with the

timing

? RCEnigma could have noted how weird #381 was at the time, but didn't. Instead, he went for a random reaction test in #397. Why do something like that to mark time if you've spotted someone do something alarmingly scummy, rather than pointing out your feelings? (Note that RCEnigma uses the past tense "sent" in #661, implying that he noticed the issue at the time, it wasn't the consequence of a reread or anything like that.) Well, an obvious scum motivation would be that they really wanted to avoid derailing the wagon on me (who was, in this hypothetical, accurately scumreading them at the time), and were happy to accept any help they could get, planning to make use of the scummy-post-from-town later on if they needed a new wagon to push. (This is especially the case as "I'm reading CFJ's posts as being constructed to look town, thus they're artificial and from scum" was a reasonable reason to scumread me, even if the way Italiano expressed that was bad.)

#666 is a pretty scattered post from Looker (and his first substantive post). It votes me, for unexplained reasons (maybe with a small hint, below the Raya quote, that Looker is concerned about how the collapse of the wagon on me looks, without clarifying whether it's my alignment or the wagon's he's interested in). The choice of me to vote for seemed strange even at the time (given that pressure had mostly moved elsewhere); I wasn't sure what to make of it, and I still am not sorry, despite really wanting a contraction there, I refuse to use "ain't".

#697 is pretty much I'd expect when I asked one scum to explain a (non-bus) scumread on another scum.

As previously mentioned, #802 is bad because it's asking Tayl0r to unvote shelly (there is, however, no particular link to RCEnigma here).

#826 is bad (and #825 was recognised by Tayl0r as scummy, although I thought it was more null), but #825/#826 are even worse as a pair. This looks a lot like RCEnigma is setting up to a) force a claim from Walter, and/or b) quickhammer Walter with Looker being the second-last vote. There's a 1 hour 50 minute time gap; Looker probably went offline at some point during that (especially given the gaps between his posts), and I think the plan was for Looker to change vote to Walter (as a "deadline vote") and have RCEnigma hammer. geraint was a spanner in the works, though, moving to shelly, at which point scum were pretty much screwed (with #858 being RCEnigma getting onto the wagon so that he could push the "look offwagon" narrative the next Day). #894 fits that; I was wondering why RCEnigma would explicitly mention that the N_M kill is not a reason not to look offwagon (why would a townie even think that that kill had anything to do with whether to look offwagon or not?).

Oh, #956 probably explaines #232. It's quite possible that one of the scum came up with an "I want to do this bit of theatre" and RCEnigma approved it in the PT, or indeed that this is the sort of thing that new scum come up with anyway and RCEnigma just wanted to paint it as "not possibly SvS". Generally speaking, towntells are only reliable if they aren't being pointed out by scum (if scum points them out, that increases the chance that they were planted).

#993 is a little strange. I can understand why someone would have second thoughts about me (it's quite common for people to gain an increasing townread on me as the game goes on, when I'm town). But even given the explanation in #984, I'm not convinced that it makes sense to read Raya as scummier than me at the time of #993. Posts like #977 are very common from players who have just been fakeclaimed to.

After that, there are no real connections until #1119. Why would a hypothetically town Looker vote

RCEnigma

in that context? Looker isn't Nosferatu, he tends to park his vote on himself rather than on a random null-read. This looks a lot more like it's intended to look good on a votecount, rather than having any real scumhunting reasoning behind it.

#1303 is an interesting soft-push on Raya by Looker. It's also surprisingly RCEnigma-focused, with a lot of "personality shade" (i.e. shading RCEnigma as a person, not RCEnigma's alignment) without actually stating any sort of scumread on here. (It also incidentally tries to shut down RCEnigma arguing for geraint as town, when the reasoning for geraint as town is basically watertight at this point.)

Why does Looker not vote RCEnigma in #1332?

#1416 / #1417 – wow, Looker really seems to have an RCEnigma fixation (and yet is pushing Raya despite that).

And that's about it. I note that RCEnigma quickhammered (after claim, but still) at the end of D2; this looked bad, was widely acknowledged to look bad, and could have been predicted to look bad. I'm not sure why a hypothetically town RCEnigma wouldn't be looking to gain more information before hammer; we weren't near deadline, after all. On the other hand, assuming a shelly/Looker/RCEnigma scumteam, there was a failed attempt to quickhammer D1, so it would make a lot of sense if RCEnigma were jumpier about the quickhammer D2.

---

The main conclusion I drew during the above exercise is that there's a lot more evidence for RCEnigma as scum than there is for Looker as scum, but the whole team hangs together pretty well. RCEnigma isn't lockscum in my view, but an RCEnigma townflip would surprise me. It does feel quite plausible that the above solve is right on RCEnigma but wrong on Looker (the RCEnigma/shelly associatives feel stronger than the RCEnigma/Looker or shelly/Looker associatives). That said, the PoE is getting pretty small at this point, so the number of plausible scumteams is dwindling

[Nosferatu]

I wasn't sure what to make of it, and I still am not

this is grammatically incorrect no matter what u do here anyway

[Nosferatu]

I think we need to hit scum today and I think we can/will, but I’m pissed! Why’d we take out all the women in this town?

powereliminating the women to own the libs

[callforjudgement]

For what it's worth, I also have quite a strong scumread on Looker at this point. #1384 looks pretty bad after the Raya flip, in addition to #802…#825 looking bad after the shelly flip.

Not really. If he scumread her.

Did

he scumread her? He voted for her, and tried to push her wagon, but I don't see much evidence of a scumread. #731 is an implied townread (this isn't the way most people react to a scumread), then Looker's interactions with Raya until #1327 are pretty much entirely repeated requests for clarification, then #1327 itself is another implied townread (why would Looker worry about you quickhammering Raya if Raya were scum?). #1384 and #1416 push the Raya wagon, but without an apparent scumread behind the push (it reads to me more like a pressure vote or deadline push).

[Gamma Emerald]

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

Does it say Italiano's name?

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm also thinking I want to vote RCE rn, but I'm a bit of a slow voter whenever there's a new day, just by my own observation, so I'll probably hold until I get a few things figured out

[ItalianoVD]

As far as I'm concerned I've voted scum correctly both days now while you have done the opposite. There is no similarity the way you're framing it.

You're trying to use AtE to guilt me into second guessing myself.

Hmm. Is it working?

After Raya's claim I was heavily expecting Raya to flip town

and would only have hammered her to prevent a nolynch.

A nolynch? You really believe that a nolynch was a real possibility? And something about the bolded doesn’t seem right. I’ll have to look back and see why I feel that way.

I believe Raya should have claimed much earlier than she did.

Huh? Why should she have claimed before getting to L-1?

[ItalianoVD]

I think we need to hit scum today and I think we can/will, but I’m pissed! Why’d we take out all the women in this town?

powereliminating the women to own the libs

I’m going to sleep, but just to get it out there...

Nosferatu, Walter, RCEnigma, geraintm, and Looker are in my townpool
Frog, Gamma, and CFJ are in my scum/lynchpool.
(PoE)

VOTE: Gamma

[geraintm]

Entering the day, going to catch up as best I can

Tayl0r Swift has been killed last night! She was a

Spoiler:

town pt cop

First, did anyone see any hints of any results they got?

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

you didn't want to hold off on the claim like yesterday?

VOTE: gamma

I think you ended day 2 with it between RCEnigma and gamma, any reason you jumped hard on gamma?

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

1589 - i'll have to read that more later.

So, trying to look at votes over the past 2 days to see what I can make of things.
Day 1, the lynch went through with
Frogster
Me
italiano - assume town
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
TAylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

Day 2 went through with

CFJ
Looker
Nosferatu
RCEnimga
Taylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

the people on both lynches were
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
(TAylor)
Walter - assume town

[as an aside, Gamma was on neither, rest on 1 or dead]

SO, I have italiano in my town pile.
I have walter in my strong town pile

I ended Day 2 with Frogster as the person I would likely have been voting for, RCenigma as someone I didn't care for at all and their hammer just stank.

this leaves me considering Frogster - for being on the shelly lynch and their suspicious activity end of day 2
Nosferatu - on both lynches
RCenigma - on both lynches and the horrible lynch and everything else

as my top 3 suspicions.
Do people agree with that? I am generally a player watches what goes on and follows actions, and these are the people who have caused me to be suspicious.

[RCEnigma]

I said I wouldn't really fight my elim but 1589 is wrong in so many ways. I'll respond in ehhh the next 5ish hours.

[RCEnigma]

Also I thought Taylor was traffic analyst and not PT cop. PT cop with friendly neighbor neighbor suggests walter scum actually, if scum isn't already in a PT with town it makes the pt cop a full cop with hard clears instead of a soft investigative.

Haven't checked for who Taylor targeted night 1 but they would be essentially confirmed, not actually confirmed since jk is possible but they never mentioned no result.