Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[geraintm]

Also I thought Taylor was traffic analyst and not PT cop. PT cop with friendly neighbor neighbor suggests walter scum actually, if scum isn't already in a PT with town it makes the pt cop a full cop with hard clears instead of a soft investigative.

Haven't checked for who Taylor targeted night 1 but they would be essentially confirmed, not actually confirmed since jk is possible but they never mentioned no result.

having to check things on the wiki as I go here. I really don't understand how people could have suspected the difference between a Private Thread Cop (which I hadn't heard of before this game) and a traffic analysist (which I didn't know was a thing until you just mentioned it).

did you think they were a PT cop before or after you made your claim?

[Frogsterking]

As far as I'm concerned I've voted scum correctly both days now while you have done the opposite. There is no similarity the way you're framing it.

You're trying to use AtE to guilt me into second guessing myself.

#1

Hmm. Is it working?

After Raya's claim I was heavily expecting Raya to flip town

and would only have hammered her to prevent a nolynch.

#2

A nolynch? You really believe that a nolynch was a real possibility? And something about the bolded doesn’t seem right. I’ll have to look back and see why I feel that way.

I believe Raya should have claimed much earlier than she did.

#3

Huh? Why should she have claimed before getting to L-1?

#1

Nope.

#2

Not really.

#3

Because she'd been the main bandwagon for almost two weeks and wasn't really doing anything to change that. If she'd claimed with a couple days left (and not L-1) it may have prevented her from getting quick hammered and allowed another BW to form.

[geraintm]

at this point it may be helpful for everyone to claim whether or not they are in a neighborhood. no need to claim neighbors, but it would be very helpful for me to understand my role. i can claim/explain everything or at least something based on what people say.

as for your second point i realize that its only the two of you in that neighborhood, but there could be other neighborhoods, right?

frogster, why would you think that the setup is a series of two-person neighborhoods vs four scum if you arent in a neighborhood? this post also made me assume you are in a neighborhood.

Is this a hint they have found frogster in a neighbourhood? 939 has frogster and Nosferatu as taylor’s top two scum reads

RCEnigma are you ascetic or do you have any other modifiers?

i guess i can also add that my night action last night failed.

Failed – does this mean they got no result or that they targeted someone and it said no? I take it to mean it was blocked.
I forgot about this when I asked if taylor had hinted at their result until I have just found it. Clearly they couldn’t have hinted at a result as they didn’t get one.
Except….does 934 mean they were asking RCenigma if they knew of a reason why if taylor had investigated them they would have got a no result/blocked? That is what it looks like to me, or am I reading that wrong??

my role is not powerful so im assuming theres other town power out there of sorts.

I disagree with this. Having a private thread cop when the neighbourhood is public feels like a cop if they got a hit.

i think cfj will be an extremely high-info lunch. but i think raya is by far the most likely to be scum, so id still prefer to lunch there. we can dine on cfj tomorrow.

This to me sounds like they targeted RCenigma and got that null response and they want to lynch them to find out why

i think cfj will be an extremely high-info lunch. but i think raya is by far the most likely to be scum, so id still prefer to lunch there. we can dine on cfj tomorrow.

This is the best I can find late on Day 2 on who taylor would target in the night.

I now thik taylor would have come back today with a possible result on Frogster
And they would have likely come out with saying they tried to get a result on RCEnigma but it failed.

I am now deeply suspicious of RCEnigma.
You got anything to say?

[geraintm]

In post 1378, Tayl0r Swift wrote:
i think cfj will be an extremely high-info lunch. but i think raya is by far the most likely to be scum, so id still prefer to lunch there. we can dine on cfj tomorrow.

This to me sounds like they targeted RCenigma and got that null response and they want to lynch them to find out why

am an idiot

I just realised I got confused between CFJ and RCE when going through.
I think what I wrote doesn't make as much sense now

[geraintm]

god I feel foolish.
trying to work out if what I wrote has any value.
I think I still think Taylor targeted RCEnigma night one and got a no result. I think the RCFJ (I actually wrote RCenigma then, I am confusing myself so easily) must have been something else Taylor was onto.
I am not sure now if they would have targeted frogster or RCEnigma last night.

[Frogsterking]

If Taylor's report failed because of a mafia role blocker then why did Italiano's night action go through? That makes me think there is a role cop or some other kind of maf pr.

[Frogsterking]

And Taylor's report failed because of an inno.

[Frogsterking]

RCEnigma cant really be scum - hes claiming a guilty on someone (at this point given people's PT claims). for RCE to be scum it would require him to be sacrificing himself in at best a 1-for-1 trade. thats a pretty bad play as scum, especially at this stage in the game where scum is already down a goon and town is only down a VT.

as for gerain, i was skeptical yesterday but i feel that gerains posts today have basically towntold. i think it would be worthwhile for everyone to re-read day 1 or at least shelly's posts to see what can be gleaned.

i guess im ready to VOTE: looker
this slot was my second scumread yesterday after shelly and has done nothing to change that.

im happy to claim at some point but i dont think theres any reason for me to full claim right now. ill say that my role is interesting given enigma's role.

Perhaps an inno on geraintm.

[Frogsterking]

I checked the wiki and it didn't indicate that an inno report would return as failed.

My second thought as to how her report would fail is that she targeted Not_Mafia, so her action failed because the night sequence went mafia kill > investigate > (report failed.) I don't know if this is how it works though.

The wiki also indicated that CFJ was the first known user to create a setup using Traffic Analyst (which PT cop is a variation of), and CFJ has mentioned Gamma is a strong mechanical player, so I would expect them to have something to say about the report failure and what possibilities may cause that. I'd also like another player who has knowledge of setup mechanics to weigh in (perhaps RCE?) in case both CFJ and Gamma are scum.

Finally, it's important to consider that tayl0r may have been bluffing about her report, that's exactly what I would have done had I decided to out for some reason.

If the most likely way tayl0r's report could have returned as "failed" was a role block, that indicates to me we are dealing with both a role cop and a role block, and on N1 the mafia role copped another town pr, which was the target of their block last night. I believe this because otherwise it makes no sense to me that they would allow Italiano another use of his ability.

[Frogsterking]

I also have a possible meta scum tell on CFJ. It's such a dumb tell and it would require reading so many of his games to verify I'm going to hold off on it for a bit.

[callforjudgement]

Normal games have to be very careful to distinguish the "failed from being blocked" case from the "succeeded but got an innocent" case; the two possible results need to be worded in such a way that you can't fail to tell them apart. The use of the word "failed" implies that something interfered with the action.

Sometimes modifiers can interfere with an action, but Tayl0r didn't have one. That means that Tayl0r got roleblocked, and/or tried to investigate an Ascetic or commuting player, and/or tried to investigate a rolestopped player. (Wiki links: Roleblocker, Ascetic, Commuter, Rolestopper.) I don't think there are any other effects that can stop an action made by an unmodified player in a Normal. Note that merely having one of those actions available one night doesn't necessarily mean a player can use it over and over; things like Odd-Night roles are common in Normals. (However, for some reason moderators have a tendency to either give most roles modifiers or to give no roles modifiers; having seen an unmodified power role flip, that reduces the chance that whatever blocked Tayl0r is limited in use.)

Killing a player's target wouldn't cause her action to fail. It would produce correct information (although it wouldn't be particularly useful).

[Frogsterking]

Would ascetic return "no result" or "failed" or are they considered synonymous?

[callforjudgement]

Meanwhile, I have a strong scumread on RCEnigma both by play and by PoE.

@

Italiano

: You've apparently ruled RCEnigma out of your PoE. Could you explain why? I'm worried that I'm starting to tunnel, and would appreciate seeing the case for him as town.


PEDIT: "No result" and "failed" are synonyms. Ascetic would cause a "failed"/"no result" result (as opposed to a "cannot communicate" result).

[callforjudgement]

Err, a "does not have PT" result. Sorry, I got PT Cop and Traffic Analyst confused for a moment.

[ItalianoVD]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

I’m guessing that because I was confirmed tfn and Taylor was unconfirmed, better to get rid of her in hopes of hitting a more powered role.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

Well I strongly townread SJReaver and even though Looker has played strangely, I don’t think it’s scum play. I’ve townread RC for a while now and the hammer of Raya didn’t make me think scum (although, that seems to be the consensus). Also his fakeclaim has been shown to be his meta and is not ai.

Here are my full reads:

TOWN

geraintm

- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.

85%

Nosferatu

- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.

90%

Walter

- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.

100%

RCEnigma

- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.

85%

Looker

- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (174). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think 90, 91, and 92 comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in 1312 it wasn’t a scumread.

85%

SCUM

Frogster

- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in 1308. I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in 1314 and 1321. I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in 1322 changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in 1366, I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (1369). And thus the reason for the vote in 1385. 1403 was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.

90%

Gamma

- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in 943 and then reiterated again in 1010 when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.

90%

CFJ

- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in 381 was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something (1493) or says something (1589) that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.

55%

[ItalianoVD]

1589 - i'll have to read that more later.

So, trying to look at votes over the past 2 days to see what I can make of things.
Day 1, the lynch went through with
Frogster
Me
italiano - assume town
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
TAylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

Day 2 went through with

CFJ
Looker
Nosferatu
RCEnimga
Taylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

the people on both lynches were
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
(TAylor)
Walter - assume town

[as an aside, Gamma was on neither, rest on 1 or dead]

SO, I have italiano in my town pile.
I have walter in my strong town pile

I ended Day 2 with Frogster as the person I would likely have been voting for, RCenigma as someone I didn't care for at all and their hammer just stank.

this leaves me considering Frogster - for being on the shelly lynch and their suspicious activity end of day 2
Nosferatu - on both lynches
RCenigma - on both lynches and the horrible lynch and everything else

as my top 3 suspicions.
Do people agree with that? I am generally a player watches what goes on and follows actions, and these are the people who have caused me to be suspicious.

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also I thought Taylor was traffic analyst and not PT cop. PT cop with friendly neighbor neighbor suggests walter scum actually, if scum isn't already in a PT with town it makes the pt cop a full cop with hard clears instead of a soft investigative.

Haven't checked for who Taylor targeted night 1 but they would be essentially confirmed, not actually confirmed since jk is possible but they never mentioned no result.

I don’t like this post

[Gamma Emerald]

If Taylor's report failed because of a mafia role blocker then why did Italiano's night action go through? That makes me think there is a role cop or some other kind of maf pr.

Wdym her report failed?

[Gamma Emerald]

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

Does it say Italiano's name?

Please answer this ASAP CFJ

[Frogsterking]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

I’m guessing that because I was confirmed tfn and Taylor was unconfirmed, better to get rid of her in hopes of hitting a more powered role.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

Well I strongly townread SJReaver and even though Looker has played strangely, I don’t think it’s scum play. I’ve townread RC for a while now and the hammer of Raya didn’t make me think scum (although, that seems to be the consensus). Also his fakeclaim has been shown to be his meta and is not ai.

Here are my full reads:

TOWN

geraintm

- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.

85%

Nosferatu

- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.

90%

Walter

- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.

100%

RCEnigma

- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.

85%

Looker

- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (174). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think 90, 91, and 92 comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in 1312 it wasn’t a scumread.

85%

SCUM

Frogster

- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in 1308. I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in 1314 and 1321. I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in 1322 changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in 1366, I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (1369). And thus the reason for the vote in 1385. 1403 was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.

90%

Gamma

- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in 943 and then reiterated again in 1010 when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.

90%

CFJ

- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in 381 was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something (1493) or says something (1589) that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.

55%

I see what happened yesterday, there was a miscommunication in the tone of my posts because we are communicating through written word. The tone of my posts in my responses 1314, 1321, and 1369 was not sarcastic, I meant them literally. There wasn't a conscious choice to not interact with Banana D1 on my end and probably his as well, and I probably would never have noticed had you not pointed it out. Because of this there is no way to answer the questions you asked, the best I can do is answer in a general sense.

[geraintm]

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

i have frogster there too, and i think i have them coming off worse from my looking over the votes. RCenigma is my second, nosferatu i guess third but i think there should be a clear gap between rcenigma and nos.

[Frogsterking]

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

i have frogster there too, and i think i have them coming off worse from my looking over the votes. RCenigma is my second, nosferatu i guess third but i think there should be a clear gap between rcenigma and nos.

I'm still trying to understand what exactly you thought was suspicious end of day 2. Do you care to elaborate?

[callforjudgement]

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

Does it say Italiano's name?

Please answer this ASAP CFJ

What is your motivation behind asking the question? As far as I can tell, an answer is more likely to benefit scum than town.

If you explain why the answer would be useful to town, I'll answer it.

[callforjudgement]

…actually, it looks a lot like you're asking a question about how a PM is worded, so I'll need to check with the moderator whether it's OK to answer the question.

[callforjudgement]

…actually, it looks a lot like you're asking a question about how a PM is worded, so I'll need to check with the moderator whether it's OK to answer the question.

OK, the moderator says I can answer it. Still, though, the question makes me uneasy; what town motivation is there in asking it?