FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Avenger]

I know he's bullshitting I just don't know if it's scum bullshitting or town bullshitting.

[Servant Rider]

Can we talk about when you became a robot and started repeating lines like npc dialogue and why you did that?

Perhaps he took an arrow to the knee.

[Servant Avenger]

You're very scummy rider.

[Servant Avenger]

Don't ask me to explain.

[Servant Rider]

YOU NEED TO USE JOKE TAGS SIR

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Saber has a bigger wagon than Lancer and seems to be in your POE pool, Rider.

Any reason you're not voting or at least commenting on him at the moment?

[Servant Beast]

That was a fun exchange. Glad we had it.

[Servant Rider]

I'm not voting because I'm in no rush to vote, and AE has asked for time.

I'm not commenting because there's already a mosh pit surrounding Saber, and adding another voice to the chaos is counterproductive.

[Servant Rider]

I will say the exchanges have done little to change my mind about the slot.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

You want cred, help me lynch scum.

I found this part pretty funny though.

It's like an "I think I would say this as town" thing.

But he forgot he's voting me.

And that he thinks there's a guilty on me.

[Servant Beast]

You want cred, help me lynch scum.

I found this part pretty funny though.

It's like an "I think I would say this as town" thing.

But he forgot he's voting me.

And that he thinks there's a guilty on me.

Maybe he wants you to self vote.

[Servant Saber]

You want cred, help me lynch scum.

I found this part pretty funny though.

It's like an "I think I would say this as town" thing.

But he forgot he's voting me.

And that he thinks there's a guilty on me.

Maybe he wants you to self vote.

Bus actually.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Alter's cause for pause is interesting. But I hope she isn't going to get on the crazy train.
There's only enough space for one of me in this game.

I was on the crazy train last night, for sure. I looked into the abyss and I saw a scum mastermind staring back at me. It ~might~ be a real thing. Something resembling actual sleep last night helped, and I'm not having a vaccine from hell reaction today (so far), and much of the crazy (I think) has drained out of my epiphany and I'm left with an impression of the game state and how I see various players impacting that state over the next few game days. There's still a scum mastermind in that impression, but not as terrifying. Mostly I want this impression in the game thread before the day ends. I have a narrative in my head, and now it's time to do some re-isoing with that narrative in mind and see of there's a fit.

This is not how I usually think about games. The mirrored halls full of anonymous avatars has forced me into this approach, and I hope I'm good at it!

[Servant Assassin]

It's okay, you don't need to be afraid of me, I promise

[Servant Alter Ego]

[Servant Assassin]

@Ruler:

please come back, I want to hear from you.

[Servant Avenger]

Alter's cause for pause is interesting. But I hope she isn't going to get on the crazy train.
There's only enough space for one of me in this game.

I was on the crazy train last night, for sure. I looked into the abyss and I saw a scum mastermind staring back at me. It ~might~ be a real thing. Something resembling actual sleep last night helped, and I'm not having a vaccine from hell reaction today (so far), and much of the crazy (I think) has drained out of my epiphany and I'm left with an impression of the game state and how I see various players impacting that state over the next few game days. There's still a scum mastermind in that impression, but not as terrifying. Mostly I want this impression in the game thread before the day ends. I have a narrative in my head, and now it's time to do some re-isoing with that narrative in mind and see of there's a fit.

This is not how I usually think about games. The mirrored halls full of anonymous avatars has forced me into this approach, and I hope I'm good at it!

Waiting with baited breath for this lizard conspiracy.

[Cabd]

Vote Count D2-10

With 12 players alive, it will take 7 votes to eliminate a player.

Saber (3): Lancer, Avenger, Beast
Moon Cancer (3): Berserker, Saber, Caster
Lancer (2): Foreigner, Rider


Phase Page Usage: 23/60

Day two will end in: (expired on 2020-09-27 22:00:00)


Prodding Servant Ruler.

[Servant Avenger]

It occurs to me that the vote distribution is weird and I should probably take something from that.

[Servant Lancer]

I'm kind of prod dodging, I threw up last night

This is a mood I also still feel crap, feel better

@Avenger - Ive never been great at taking anything meaningful from vote distribution, what's weird?

[Servant Avenger]

Well, I'm scum reading/null reading you and Beast and you're both voting Saber with me.

While foreigner and rider are voting you.

While Saber, Berserker, and Caster are voting Moon cancer.

Pretty much I think 1, probably two town are voting you and 1 or 2 scum is voting with me.
And there's probably 1 scum on mooncancer, but if that's saber why are scum voting saber. I'm just looking at the boxed in scum and wondering where they're voting I guess and why.

[Servant Avenger]

Ah, there's 8 players voting but there is 12 players alive.
that's what's so weird to me.

[Servant Assassin]

While I'm wrapping up the interactions for the sake of completeness, thought I'd reference midwaybear's past scumgames on site so we're not just guessing blindly at how he'd interact with partners. From a look at his games, he didn't especially go out of his way to interact with his partners, which is mostly what I'd expect from a less experienced player. Granted, in one of his games his partner slot was a permalurker/flaker so there wasn't a lot of opportunity to interact, however, overall he didn't really talk with his partner. Of particular note was this post in the newbie 1997 mafia PT: "I don't think we should force interaction between ourselves, but that we should let interactions come naturally." That's the lens I would try to view any of Archer's interactions with players in this game. He's unlikely to have frequently engaged in conversation with a partner for fear of having it come off strangely, a typical pattern from someone not used to playing scum.

Newbie 1997
Newbie 1997 mafia PT

Newbie 2018
Newbie 2018 mafia PT

In that light, some of the players I had typed up a bunch of notes on but declined to post about yesterday because I didn't want to drop a bunch of analysis on people already getting townread look better.

Stalled on this because I'm not sure whether this analysis is even

necessary

at this point, but feel like I ought to lay it all out so people can see my thinking here.

Archer/Alter Ego

Archer and Alter Ego interacted frequently, in initial interactions Archer fosed Alter Ego, attacking them for things like "busywork" and asking a "safe question" (68 85 175). Alter Ego explains herself to Archer in 178, and in return Archer presses her for "anything specific" on her read of berserker/foreigner, and says he's scumreading her for being "a little vague", while also throwing a little suspicion her way later in the post for not asking Lancer why they were scumreading her. Alter Ego explains herself to Archer again in 206 and the response from Archer is somewhat sympathetic in 211. After AE describbes "townflashes" in Archer's posts in 277, Archer softens toward her, asking if she has any scumreads in 282, when she replies in the negative with 289, he responds with "Do your thing" in 396. AE expresses an "inconsistency" in how Archer treated foreigner in 312, Archer asks her for an explanation in 396. Also in that post, in regard to a Lancer townread of AE, he says "No, I can easily see scum faking a townread on someone for reasons like that and then retracting it. First, it makes them look better. Second, it makes them not obligated to townread someone. Not calling AE scum, but I don't think this is great reason for townread". I think, probably, he doesn't feel the need to put doubt here if it's his partner getting wrongly townread. Alter Ego explains the "inconsistency" they saw from Archer in 398, saying "That's what I saw as inconsistent. You demurred reading the part they wanted you to read, wanted them to explain their read (which I took as you wanting them to convince you they had good reason for thinking Foreigner's town) and then gigged them for using the data that should have been familiar to you instead of data you'd refused at least twice to look at". When Alter Ego talked about "taking applications for the townblock", Archer gives a "/in" in 433, and I think here he'd be a lot more cautious with how he'd treat a teammate, suspect much more it's an attempt by him to sidle up to a townie, same as in 574 where he gives a townread on AE when asked by her about his reads, somewhat notably after she has made some statements indicating suspicion toward him. Then she calls him out for his frankly weird play at the end of the master phase in 1091, saying "Archer isn't changing my mind. They're either jumping in gung ho like this to scare people off the wagon, or, like I said, going for the towncred" and Archer's reply in 1094 is to say "I don't get either of these".

Conclusion

Yesterday, I had this as neutral interaction-wiose, but looking back now with a bit of added research, I have a hard time believing midwaybear would interact with his partner in such a deliberate fashion, and the early sspicion followed by attempted buddying makes more sense as s/t interaction, with him trying to put suspicion on her then backing down and trying to appeal to her when she doesn't suspect him. I don't see him going the route of trying to distanceearly only to throw it away after a few hundred posts.

Archer/Avenger:

In 188, Archer says "I am sorta annoyed at Avenger trying to buddy with people, and he would definitely be lower than berserker to me." Avenger was probably the first player to call out Archer in 194, asking why he town read foreigner and picked me for the vote over him. When archer replies that he skimmed over the argument in 196, Avenger says that's really suspicious in 197 and Archer replies with "okay but why" in 200. He badgers him to read the argument in 202, and continues to explain townreading foreigner in 207. Avenger explains this in 213, saying "Not reading specific sections of the game for vague reasons that could help you determine someone’s alignment is something push worthy in my eyes because it makes it easier to just say “I didn’t read that part” when someone asks how could you think they’re scum/town with those post. Especially when someone I think is town gets passed over for someone who is a null read to me with significantly fewer posts". Then in 241 Archer responds with "I mean I see where you're coming from, and I will probably end up revisiting it. However, all of your reasons for townreading Foreigner come from things that didn't happen during the interaction with Berserker so I'm not sure how valid it really is. Also, give me space to make my own reads. Last sentence felt a little like wk Foreigner to me". Also in that post, he makes a remark about "mindmelding" with Avenger over simply correcting someone about the phase length despite Avenger being "someone I don't even find particularly townie". In 286 Archer again criticizes Avenger, saying "Seemed like you were shading us for "wanting the vote" while you have probably been the most blatant about it maybe next to Berserker. That's irony right?" to which Avenger says "I don’t know if you’re scum. It’s like a reverse OMGUS, normally I would suspect you for voting me, here’s it’s the exact opposite." in 288. This draws a response of "Umm. How serious are you about this?" in 396 Avenger comments on Saber's "signal to noise ratio" in 320 but says "Altar ego and archer are both somewhat guilty of this sin, but I don’t particularly think it’s super scummy". Additionally in 396, Archer says "I found it blatantly hypocritical that Avenger was shading me for apparently wanting the vote while he legit has been the most vocal about that". Further criticism of Avenger in the quotestripe pile follows, saying things like "I found it weird how Avenger wanted me to townread Foreigner based on interaction with Berserker, but then cited reasons outside of that to support his own TR" "Overall, I feel like Avenger has been very upfront on wanting the vote, but I don't really remember anything townie he's done in particular" "Not a big fan of Avenger practically babysitting Shielder in 331 by literally just reiterating setup information". Later down he shades him less, saying "I do like Avenger's 343 though. I think the hesitancy in both cases isn't really hedging, but more of town uncertainty" "I was expecting him to cite some stuff from the argument since he was pushing me so hard, so it was weird that he decided not to. I guess this could be because he's trying to be nice and use stuff that I've read, but I certainly wasn't expecting it? Avenger, maybe you could clarify?". In 982 he says avenger "seems like a better leader" but then in 1054 says "I low key feel bad for avenger if he’s town, but this is the way to go".

Conclusion

I think, overall here, the early aggression between avenger and archer leads me to think they are unlikely to be partnered. You could maybe get iffy on how they weakened pushing against each other later and tinfoil how archer went on avenger for the master vote, but I think the way Archer got annoyed at Avenger badgering him to read the berserker/foreigner fight and Avenger attacked him for it suggests they are probably not teammates.

Archer/Beast:

Beast called Archer scum in their 2nd post, in 244. Was cagey when moon asked them about it in 254, saying "I kind of don't want to discuss my scum reads now because of the way moon agreed with me without saying why, on the off chance they just want me to feed them a read." In 259, they said of Avenger "They don't like archer, that's town to me.". Archer remained a scum read in 593. Reiterated him being scum in 1352. Beast suggested Caster and Archer as a team in 1438, which got a sarcastic response from Archer, Beast asks if he's giving up in 1441.

Archer did not really interact with beast at all.

Conclusion

There's not really enough here to clear Beast given overall lack of content but I'd put them as somewhat unlikely to be a partner. I sort of like Beast, overall.

Archer/Berserker:

Berserker's first mention of Archer comes in at 917 where they mention being "down on" Archer. Argues with Archer in 1078/1084. Says she is "less certain" or archer in 1415 when I pull the vote off Shielder but don't go for Caster.

Archer mostly just tried to avoid the Berserker/Foreigner argument. 396 "I can certainly see them rushing straight out of the gate with this supposed "town-specific" trait which doesn't help with my read on Berserker." "Agree with Rider about Berserker." (I do not know what this means). Calls Berserker "hypocritical" in 1077. But in 1282 says "I really like this for some reason. I think the mindset comes from town almost all of the time."

Conclusion

If you wanted to really tinfoil, you could do it here. I still like Berserker for town for other reasons, there's just nothing interaction-wise with Archer that I would clear her for.

Archer/Foreigner:

Foreigner oted Archer and called him town early in 201/227, but then reversed in 528 to say they "don't like Archer". Put Archer as scum in 1114. When Archer asks why they're scummy, Foreigner responds in 1116 with "your posts lack nuance". Further exchange in 1121, archer asks why it's more likely to come from scum, Foreigner explains in 1121 and they have a back-and-forth that goes to 1137. Foreigner does say he scum reads shielder harder than archer in 1136.

Archer says foreigner shouldn't reveal their info yet in 175. Says he might townread foreigner while having "Mostly skimmed over the argument". Again in 188 says he has a slight townead on them but hasn't bothered with the argument. When Foreigner says Beast's comments are "way too brazen to be scum", Archer says "This doesn't work" in 558. Says "forgot i was townreading foreigner" in 605. Asks them about saying they didn't want to be mastered in 636, reiterates townreading them in 982, says foreigner doesn't wan the upgrade in 1058 while he's trying to make people get weirded out about my wagon, then there's the argument with foreigner. Does seem notable when he asks why he's scummy in 1112 that Foreigner is the only person who responds.

Conclusion

It's nothing super strong, but I do think the little argument they had about why Archer is scummy makes them less likely to be teamed.

[Servant Assassin]

Now that that's done, I can say this is where I start to look at the dogpile on Saber last night that I helped initiate, and look at their responses, and start to get a little nervous remembering the stuff the first Saber did I thought was townish.


Nervous enough to change my mind? Probably not.

[Servant Avenger]

Thanks Assassin.