Mini Normal 2168 | So Many Bats! | Game Over!

[Noraa]

I mean, I just turned Saudade's wagon into a much more viable wagon. By my own reasoning, a Saudade town flip (at

any

point in the game, even if we leave this wagon for a better one) should make me appear more scummy, and a Saudade scum flip should make me appear more town.

I'm aware of the fact that my vote looks more scummy than not. As I said, playing towards the middle is a fine strategy. The point is, I'm making a play that has consequences. Votes, and the ways people react to votes, and the ways people react

with

votes, are the only thing that have consequences and therefore any concrete long-term meaning in this game. If you're serious about your doubt of me, vote for me. Things need to

happen.

Otherwise, town will keep floundering until we run out of time and we're forced to elim the person with the most votes on them just so that we don't give scum an extra kill.

I think your vote is scummy correct but what you did certainly does move the game forward by putting pressure on one player. I'll for now, be thinking of it as town!mundivore trying to move the game forward since I currently have suspicions on other players and I want to Poe u for now.

[Noraa]

page topppppppp yay

[duppin]

Hrm. I'm tired of all the fluff.

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual

stakes

. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Things won't happen unless town starts voting for people. I've been part of the problem, but it's easy enough to fix.

VOTE: Saudade to E-2.

I actually don't like this wagon. I like Saudade for town. However, either this entices scum out to put more votes on people, or I get shown a more compelling wagon, right? But somebody really needs to start taking risks for us to actually

learn

things.

why do you like saudade for town?

[Tayl0r Swift]

I was okay with Tayl0r's predecessor but not sure what to think of the slot at the moment. I know Jester already asked you to explain why you find his read on Saudade opportunistic but I would also really like to hear your read on Saudade since you did throw slight shade towards him earlier saying him being silent is a scum tell, I am well aware you were being sarcstic about your vast experience with him but still you never mentioned him after that.

actually i'd also like to hear your read on Mundivore since you said one of their posts concerned you but then you never mentioned them after that either

thats basically how i operate. youre gonna see me throwing some random shit at random walls for a while until i get settled

[Tayl0r Swift]

Hrm. I'm tired of all the fluff.

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual

stakes

. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Things won't happen unless town starts voting for people. I've been part of the problem, but it's easy enough to fix.

VOTE: Saudade to E-2.

I actually don't like this wagon. I like Saudade for town. However, either this entices scum out to put more votes on people, or I get shown a more compelling wagon, right? But somebody really needs to start taking risks for us to actually

learn

things.

you have no scumreads?

[Noraa]

duppin you asked for more content. I produced more content. u satisfied with this amount or no?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'm gonna have to agree with Duppin's sentiment that while there certainly isn't the strongest evidence in the world that Saudade is scum, there isn't much pointing to him being town either. Just like all wagons this is based on information. And tbh i don't like what i'm seeing, there's a lot of stalling, weird reasons to townread Saudade. Shading of the voters.
The main issue here is deciphering whether scum is shading a wagon on town or whether they are trying to discourage a wagon on scum.

[Tayl0r Swift]

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual stakes. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Seriously? What about Jacko/I pushing shelly, or shelly pushing Grendel/Jacko? You have nothing for associations despite all that?

Simply put, without any real stakes for those events, I can't confidently say their scum play would deviate in any way from their town play. People react primarily to incentives. I don't think there have been any plausible consequences for any single person in this game so far.

The one possible exception is shelly's fake IC reveal, but that's only true since shelly didn't make it as obviously a joke as it was. But that's not helpful either, since town or scum would react to an IC reveal in the exact same way there, so we don't get any real information about JV from it. We are still quintessentially in RVS.

Honestly, I think this Saudade wagon carries at least one or two scum on it. I think that if I had more time, I'd go over the wagon and really look at people's reasons for voting onto it. But in the mean time, we need to accelerate the pace of voting and making meaningful decisions in this game. Nonsense decisions don't yield information. Nonsense plays don't yield information. Town and scum play quite similarly so long as we expect that they're playing well. Scum players have an incentive to look like town, so that they aren't elimm'd. Town PRs have an incentive to look slightly scummy, so that they aren't NK'd. Vanilla townies have an incentive to look like Town PR's so that they get NK'd instead of the PRs, which means they have an incentive to look slightly scummy as well. Playing towards the 'middle' of the block is a conveniently viable strategy for all players.

However, there are plays which can be made which have fundamentally different consequences for scum than they do for town. Analyzing how people react to these plays are the only way to get actually concrete information about the game state.

—The later votes on a wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum are more likely to turn a wagon on a townie into a viable wagon.)

—Shifting off of a heavy wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum are more likely to find reasons to abandon a scum wagon.)

—Heavily pushing a viable wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum will not heavily push the wagon of scum and are more likely to heavily push a town wagon.)

—Hammering or declaring intent to hammer. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the final vote. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum may be willing to hammer a townie for weaker reasons. Scum are generally unwilling to hammer scum unless the town is already resolved in their target, in which case they'd quite like to hammer scum.)

—Claims. (Reason: scum are likely to claim a PR to survive the day, but unlikely to get NK'd in retribution. Scum may claim a PR that is very unlikely to appear in conjunction with an existing town PR, in which case a CC can secure a 1-for-1 trade at worst which is very town favorable on average.)

In order to run into any of these plays, it is essentially a requirement that there must be a player who could plausibly be elimmed. I don't like the Saudade wagon but we aren't going to learn anything about the game state with all the wagons hovering around E-3 or worse. To advance the game state to a point where we can actually get concrete information from the role reveals on elim and at night phase, we need to be making sure that the wagons are non-trivial.

if you think the saudade wagon is scum-driven why the hell are you on it?


also, shelly, your jackson case is bad. i dont see the scumslip at all, and i dont see why most of that stuff is scummy

[NorwegianboyEE]

Spoiler:

Gonna look through Saudade's ISO to find everything that is potentially scum behavior

What a lively bunch

So far you're all doing great

It's interesting that Saudade enters this game with the mentality of being the reasonable person overlooking everything. Don't know what to make of it here.

VOTE: minimegaexcept this one, such a weak entrance

saude top tier read time

tbh i don't think the entrance was very weak? explain

Well she felt the need to explain her rvs vote.. like an excuse
And the first post beforehand was a quote to something not game related either

Weak reasons to vote Mini. Especially the first point, given 63 was an answer to Gendel's RVS questions, and WAS game related.

Its not a super strong read since the user didnt post afterwards but it feels like she tried to get some posts in just to be done with it rather than contribute

This is also strange because Mini does post more after the two posts Saudade is talking about. From 149 to 205

Its not a super strong read since the user didnt post afterwards but it feels like she tried to get some posts in just to be done with it rather than contribute

mega did post afterwards

Oh i missee it, what page

Oh, okay, he apparently missed that. Missing all of those other Mini posts however shows he didn't read the thread very closely at all, and did not bother to ISO Mini, it indicates a lack of interest in solving.

I'm fine with this for a bit, I don't quite understand what are you all fighting so energetically about though

This post comes in while shelly is warring against Jacko/I. I really don't like this one, it's like trying to play the calm mediator, it just rubs me the wrong way but I can't exactly articulate why.

saude you think we are TvT then?

it's way too early for me to tell what alignment either of you are

Eh, not even any preliminary thoughts on the top two posters at the time?

see shelly was just a hungry girl that explains her overall angry attitude and inconsistent mood swings on everyone

it seems like she knows shes town therefore anyone scumreading her must be scum because shes such an obvious town player from her point of view

Then, these posts + 459 come out in defense of shelly. This is contradictory to his opinion in 310 where he says he's fine with a shelly wagon. I don't if this is protecting a scum buddy or a white knight, but it rubs me wrong way, because I don't like any of the reasons for the defense.

Hmmmmmmm i dont like grendel

I may be wrong but did he just shade every single active slot in one way or another

Why the "I may be wrong"? So non-committal.

it's been a while since two people have voted me in a game, what a wonderful feeling

Trying to show he doesn't care. Maybe he town!him actually doesn't? but it's plausible this is scum!him faking it

Overall I'd say this is a scumread after doing that.

what was the motivation for doing this jester? it seems like you were searching for an excuse to scumread someone rather than trying to sort someone.

redados and jester are topscum for me at this point.

VOTE: jester
but id also be happy to vote redados

Really not a fan of this post.
Ironically it feels like you're trying to find an excuse yourself to scumread Jester here. And your read seems too strong based on that flimsy evidence.

[Tayl0r Swift]

I mean, I just turned Saudade's wagon into a much more viable wagon. By my own reasoning, a Saudade town flip (at

any

point in the game, even if we leave this wagon for a better one) should make me appear more scummy, and a Saudade scum flip should make me appear more town.

I'm aware of the fact that my vote looks more scummy than not. As I said, playing towards the middle is a fine strategy. The point is, I'm making a play that has consequences. Votes, and the ways people react to votes, and the ways people react

with

votes, are the only thing that have consequences and therefore any concrete long-term meaning in this game. If you're serious about your doubt of me, vote for me. Things need to

happen.

Otherwise, town will keep floundering until we run out of time and we're forced to elim the person with the most votes on them just so that we don't give scum an extra kill.

we only get information from your vote if you somewhat believe it.

ok so redados, mundivore, jester, and saudade are my PoE atm.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Spoiler:

Gonna look through Saudade's ISO to find everything that is potentially scum behavior

What a lively bunch

So far you're all doing great

It's interesting that Saudade enters this game with the mentality of being the reasonable person overlooking everything. Don't know what to make of it here.

VOTE: minimegaexcept this one, such a weak entrance

saude top tier read time

tbh i don't think the entrance was very weak? explain

Well she felt the need to explain her rvs vote.. like an excuse
And the first post beforehand was a quote to something not game related either

Weak reasons to vote Mini. Especially the first point, given 63 was an answer to Gendel's RVS questions, and WAS game related.

Its not a super strong read since the user didnt post afterwards but it feels like she tried to get some posts in just to be done with it rather than contribute

This is also strange because Mini does post more after the two posts Saudade is talking about. From 149 to 205

Its not a super strong read since the user didnt post afterwards but it feels like she tried to get some posts in just to be done with it rather than contribute

mega did post afterwards

Oh i missee it, what page

Oh, okay, he apparently missed that. Missing all of those other Mini posts however shows he didn't read the thread very closely at all, and did not bother to ISO Mini, it indicates a lack of interest in solving.

I'm fine with this for a bit, I don't quite understand what are you all fighting so energetically about though

This post comes in while shelly is warring against Jacko/I. I really don't like this one, it's like trying to play the calm mediator, it just rubs me the wrong way but I can't exactly articulate why.

saude you think we are TvT then?

it's way too early for me to tell what alignment either of you are

Eh, not even any preliminary thoughts on the top two posters at the time?

see shelly was just a hungry girl that explains her overall angry attitude and inconsistent mood swings on everyone

it seems like she knows shes town therefore anyone scumreading her must be scum because shes such an obvious town player from her point of view

Then, these posts + 459 come out in defense of shelly. This is contradictory to his opinion in 310 where he says he's fine with a shelly wagon. I don't if this is protecting a scum buddy or a white knight, but it rubs me wrong way, because I don't like any of the reasons for the defense.

Hmmmmmmm i dont like grendel

I may be wrong but did he just shade every single active slot in one way or another

Why the "I may be wrong"? So non-committal.

it's been a while since two people have voted me in a game, what a wonderful feeling

Trying to show he doesn't care. Maybe he town!him actually doesn't? but it's plausible this is scum!him faking it

Overall I'd say this is a scumread after doing that.

what was the motivation for doing this jester? it seems like you were searching for an excuse to scumread someone rather than trying to sort someone.

redados and jester are topscum for me at this point.

VOTE: jester
but id also be happy to vote redados

Really not a fan of this post.
Ironically it feels like you're trying to find an excuse yourself to scumread Jester here. And your read seems too strong based on that flimsy evidence.

actually i kinda agree that i got overly excited about that. its a scummy post, but not reason in itself that jester is lockscum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Swifty reply from Taylor Swift.

[NorwegianboyEE]

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual stakes. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Seriously? What about Jacko/I pushing shelly, or shelly pushing Grendel/Jacko? You have nothing for associations despite all that?

Simply put, without any real stakes for those events, I can't confidently say their scum play would deviate in any way from their town play. People react primarily to incentives. I don't think there have been any plausible consequences for any single person in this game so far.

The one possible exception is shelly's fake IC reveal, but that's only true since shelly didn't make it as obviously a joke as it was. But that's not helpful either, since town or scum would react to an IC reveal in the exact same way there, so we don't get any real information about JV from it. We are still quintessentially in RVS.

Honestly, I think this Saudade wagon carries at least one or two scum on it. I think that if I had more time, I'd go over the wagon and really look at people's reasons for voting onto it. But in the mean time, we need to accelerate the pace of voting and making meaningful decisions in this game. Nonsense decisions don't yield information. Nonsense plays don't yield information. Town and scum play quite similarly so long as we expect that they're playing well. Scum players have an incentive to look like town, so that they aren't elimm'd. Town PRs have an incentive to look slightly scummy, so that they aren't NK'd. Vanilla townies have an incentive to look like Town PR's so that they get NK'd instead of the PRs, which means they have an incentive to look slightly scummy as well. Playing towards the 'middle' of the block is a conveniently viable strategy for all players.

However, there are plays which can be made which have fundamentally different consequences for scum than they do for town. Analyzing how people react to these plays are the only way to get actually concrete information about the game state.

—The later votes on a wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum are more likely to turn a wagon on a townie into a viable wagon.)

—Shifting off of a heavy wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum are more likely to find reasons to abandon a scum wagon.)

—Heavily pushing a viable wagon. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the wagon. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum will not heavily push the wagon of scum and are more likely to heavily push a town wagon.)

—Hammering or declaring intent to hammer. (Reason: scum know the outcome of the final vote. The only way scum wins is by creating enough mislims. Scum may be willing to hammer a townie for weaker reasons. Scum are generally unwilling to hammer scum unless the town is already resolved in their target, in which case they'd quite like to hammer scum.)

—Claims. (Reason: scum are likely to claim a PR to survive the day, but unlikely to get NK'd in retribution. Scum may claim a PR that is very unlikely to appear in conjunction with an existing town PR, in which case a CC can secure a 1-for-1 trade at worst which is very town favorable on average.)

In order to run into any of these plays, it is essentially a requirement that there must be a player who could plausibly be elimmed. I don't like the Saudade wagon but we aren't going to learn anything about the game state with all the wagons hovering around E-3 or worse. To advance the game state to a point where we can actually get concrete information from the role reveals on elim and at night phase, we need to be making sure that the wagons are non-trivial.

TL;DR

[Tayl0r Swift]

Spoiler:

Gonna look through Saudade's ISO to find everything that is potentially scum behavior

What a lively bunch

So far you're all doing great

It's interesting that Saudade enters this game with the mentality of being the reasonable person overlooking everything. Don't know what to make of it here.

VOTE: minimegaexcept this one, such a weak entrance

saude top tier read time

tbh i don't think the entrance was very weak? explain

Well she felt the need to explain her rvs vote.. like an excuse
And the first post beforehand was a quote to something not game related either

Weak reasons to vote Mini. Especially the first point, given 63 was an answer to Gendel's RVS questions, and WAS game related.

Its not a super strong read since the user didnt post afterwards but it feels like she tried to get some posts in just to be done with it rather than contribute

This is also strange because Mini does post more after the two posts Saudade is talking about. From 149 to 205

Its not a super strong read since the user didnt post afterwards but it feels like she tried to get some posts in just to be done with it rather than contribute

mega did post afterwards

Oh i missee it, what page

Oh, okay, he apparently missed that. Missing all of those other Mini posts however shows he didn't read the thread very closely at all, and did not bother to ISO Mini, it indicates a lack of interest in solving.

I'm fine with this for a bit, I don't quite understand what are you all fighting so energetically about though

This post comes in while shelly is warring against Jacko/I. I really don't like this one, it's like trying to play the calm mediator, it just rubs me the wrong way but I can't exactly articulate why.

saude you think we are TvT then?

it's way too early for me to tell what alignment either of you are

Eh, not even any preliminary thoughts on the top two posters at the time?

see shelly was just a hungry girl that explains her overall angry attitude and inconsistent mood swings on everyone

it seems like she knows shes town therefore anyone scumreading her must be scum because shes such an obvious town player from her point of view

Then, these posts + 459 come out in defense of shelly. This is contradictory to his opinion in 310 where he says he's fine with a shelly wagon. I don't if this is protecting a scum buddy or a white knight, but it rubs me wrong way, because I don't like any of the reasons for the defense.

Hmmmmmmm i dont like grendel

I may be wrong but did he just shade every single active slot in one way or another

Why the "I may be wrong"? So non-committal.

it's been a while since two people have voted me in a game, what a wonderful feeling

Trying to show he doesn't care. Maybe he town!him actually doesn't? but it's plausible this is scum!him faking it

Overall I'd say this is a scumread after doing that.

just gonna respond point by point here rather than breaking the quote up.

-eh dont see why thats scummy, its page 3
-dont see why the next couple are scummy rather than just lazy or disengaged. sure its anti-town but that doesnt make it scummy.
-now we're down to 310, fair enough, but you saying weak gutread is pretty easy to fake
- fair enough
- eh, dunno about this
-sure

like the case itself is fine. its just i couldnt follow why youd push that rather than another case. and going into reading an iso with the mindset of trying to prove scum means youre going to confirmation bias yourself. i also somewhat scumread saudade (although i really havent seen saudade post much since i joined, so the saudade posts ive seen have been cherrypicked).

[UNOwen]

Hrm. I'm tired of all the fluff.

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual

stakes

. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Things won't happen unless town starts voting for people. I've been part of the problem, but it's easy enough to fix.

VOTE: Saudade to E-2.

I actually don't like this wagon. I like Saudade for town. However, either this entices scum out to put more votes on people, or I get shown a more compelling wagon, right? But somebody really needs to start taking risks for us to actually

learn

things.

The motivation and frustration with game state is good but the vote is not. Why vote against vla player you town lean and not support small time but existing Redados wagon? Competing wagons should in theory create a higher information game state than one dominant wagon and a bunch of isolated votes.

[Tayl0r Swift]

a vote count would be great.

that said afaik the jester wagon is not really viable, and now that ive slept i do think redados probably has more scum equity than jester, so

VOTE: redados

still willing to go saudade, but not until saudade is in the thread and posting.

[UNOwen]

i see, well then my question would be why are you not trying to push harder on redados?

I don't think there is much cause for urgency yet. We are down four players currently, and there has been some soft support for a redados wagon among those who are playing. So for now it's ok to push this gently and see who joins or if some players start to push back.

[Noraa]

a vote count would be great.

that said afaik the jester wagon is not really viable, and now that ive slept i do think redados probably has more scum equity than jester, so

VOTE: redados

still willing to go saudade, but not until saudade is in the thread and posting.

I may have started the redados wagon but I dont like ur really fast transition here after being criticized for ur other wagon. I almost feel like its a scum!Taylor jumping on this wagon that will slowly start pushing it and later if redados was town, u would blame it on me for starting the wagon. And if redados is ur scum partner, u would get lots of town credit for bussing him. I'm not liking the vibes I'm getting here. I agree I wasn't particularly paying too much attention in the newbie that just ended however ur tone here is definitely different. I'll keep you at a TR for now but ur definitely looking fishy as of rn and you will definitely be replacing redados in my SRs if he flips green not red. If he flips red, it would be a lil strange for scums to bus one of their partners day 1 but it would also get u a shit shit shit ton of town cred which if ur an independent kind of scum, that's what u would do. I have fishy vibes on Taylor rn. Can anyone agree with me here? If I get some sort of confirmation that I am indeed not insane, I may be considering replacing bugspray/Norwee with her as the third scum

[Noraa]

Bc my current guess for the scum team is
Redados
Shelly
Norwee/bugspray

From most confident to least confident and I'm kinda wanting to replace the last slot that I have close to zero confidence on with Taylor

[Tayl0r Swift]

a vote count would be great.

that said afaik the jester wagon is not really viable, and now that ive slept i do think redados probably has more scum equity than jester, so

VOTE: redados

still willing to go saudade, but not until saudade is in the thread and posting.

I may have started the redados wagon but I dont like ur really fast transition here after being criticized for ur other wagon. I almost feel like its a scum!Taylor jumping on this wagon that will slowly start pushing it and later if redados was town, u would blame it on me for starting the wagon. And if redados is ur scum partner, u would get lots of town credit for bussing him. I'm not liking the vibes I'm getting here. I agree I wasn't particularly paying too much attention in the newbie that just ended however ur tone here is definitely different. I'll keep you at a TR for now but ur definitely looking fishy as of rn and you will definitely be replacing redados in my SRs if he flips green not red. If he flips red, it would be a lil strange for scums to bus one of their partners day 1 but it would also get u a shit shit shit ton of town cred which if ur an independent kind of scum, that's what u would do. I have fishy vibes on Taylor rn. Can anyone agree with me here? If I get some sort of confirmation that I am indeed not insane, I may be considering replacing bugspray/Norwee with her as the third scum

except that i didnt sheep you onto redados. i stated reasons for the scumread earlier.

[Noraa]

U have never had a case on Redados

[Tayl0r Swift]

U have never had a case on Redados

but i stated a scumread with reasoning

[Noraa]

There was nothing specifically saying why. It sounded to me like, "oh no one likes my reasons for being on saudade so I'll just switch to the Redados wagon now"

[UNOwen]

Ok I'm going to stop procrastinating and high effort this

Jackson is Scum.

*snip*

Thanks for getting back to this. I am not convinced of your case, the question for me is whether I believe you are convinced of it. It is more substantial than I was expecting so that is in your favour. The IC stuff is fair, that was indeed weird. Wagoning is also a reasonable argument but this far away from an execution I don't see it as necessarily scummy. The bulk of this though is wrapped up in Jackson's reaction to your scumread and his own subsequent read on you. I really can't understand the argument here. Bafflement seems a perfectly reasonable response and since bold moves are clearly part of your playstyle it makes sense that he would then find it hard to determine your alignment.

I guess the point is that you think a townie being accused of "scumslipping" would immediately believe you are scum trying to push a miselimination. The problem is, I don't think I would think that straight away either. Trying to push something so blatantly dishonest is such a poor plan that I would probably assume either you were pulling some sort of reaction test or you had completely misread my post in some way. Only if the push was sustained would I then go on to view it as scum-motivated.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I have fishy vibes on Taylor rn. Can anyone agree with me here?

Well yeah, i agree with u.
Don't know how u feel about 3rd scum candidate agreeing with you on that tho.