Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Titus]

If Gamma does flip as the tracker then my confusion about this would have been eliminated. I hope he just makes it easy and flips scum.

There will be words when the game ends.

I hope Gamma flips scum here. I just wasn't taking nonsense about change your ways from a scumslot. If Gamma flips town, he ought to know that I change my ways for no one.

[ItalianoVD]

Yeah, same.

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 3.Eliminate

Gamma Emerald(5)

~ Nosferatu(11), callforjudgement(42), ItalianoVD(45), geraintm(19), Titus(23)

-- HAMMER

Looker(1)

~ WaltertheDunce10(28)

Titus(1)

~ Looker(6)


Not Voting (2): Frogsterking(50), Gamma Emerald(0)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-07 19:26:08)

FLAVOR

[GeorgeBailey]

Gamma Emerald got the cinderblocks. He was a:

Spoiler:

Mafia Tracker

Night 3 actions deadline: (expired on 2020-10-02 00:18:51)

[GeorgeBailey]

ItalianoVD has died last night! He was a

Spoiler:

Town Friendly Neighbor Neighbor

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 4.1

Not Voting (7): callforjudgement(0), Looker(0), geraintm(0), Frogsterking(0), Titus(0), WaltertheDunce10(0), Nosferatu(0)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-16 00:31:59)

FLAVOR

[callforjudgement]

@Mod: What happened to Nosferatu? Should he be on the votecount?

Having trouble with the votecounter, sorry. -GB

I'll be going to bed soon, but I'm online right now, so time to put out some reads/give some information.

First:

Titus and Walter are both confirmed town.

This is based on information that is not currently public.
As long as you agree that the setup is 10:3, you don't have to trust me to trust this information: as town I wouldn't lie about something this important, and if I were hypothetically scum, it would mean that everyone else were town.

I also strongly believe that Nosferatu and geraintm are both town (geraintm more so than Nosferatu). This is

not

based on private information, so it's possible that my reads are off, but I'm very confident about the geraintm read and pretty confident about the Nosferatu read.

I had a strong townread on Frogsterking on day 2. However, his behaviour was

really

scummy on day 3, especially given the Gamma flip. I still think the towntells I picked up from Frogster are genuine towntells, but am not sure how strong they are, especially in light of his recent behaviour, and I no longer want to fight that wagon if other people want to force it through.

I don't have a townread on Looker. I don't have a strong scumread by play, but the PoE is getting really small now.

VOTE: Looker

[callforjudgement]

Ooh, an idea that could explain Gamma's actions…

@

Gamma

: Did you receive

Italiano's

Friendly Neighbour PM Night 2? That would explain your actions here; you would naturally assume that I'd fakeclaimed to receive Italiano's PM for some reason, and would be hoping to catch me in a contradiction (in this scenario, you'd be lying about the "confirms a player as town" reason for pressuring me in order to reduce the chance I caught on). The question in this scenario would be intended as a subtle way to check for a second Friendly Neighbour (with you forgetting that Nosferatu would be able to counterclaim a "no" answer and thus it would reveal the existence of a second Friendly Neighbour in the case that I was town).

I thought of two more possibilities.

Given that Gamma has flipped now, and as a consequence answering this question won't leak any information: what were the other possibilities?

[geraintm]

italiano, with his last dying breath, managed to tell me they were town

[geraintm]

@CFJ - I cannot do meta analysis of games, but from what I know town had 2 players who could confirm to others they were town, you have someway of confirming if people are town and we had a cop who could identify people with private threads. that almost feels like at the end of night one 8 people could be cleared in best case scenario for town. does that seem right?

[callforjudgement]

I have been worried that this setup is implausibly townsided for a while. That's part of the reason I was so suspicious of Gamma; a Tracker on top of the roles I already knew about was just too much.

That said, there are some limitations. For example, one of the confirmations I have could not have been obtained on Night 1, no matter what else was happening in the game. I don't think it would have been possible for more than three people (plus the D1 and N1 flips, which don't count) to be cleared at that point.

I know that it's fairly hard to believe the setup, but it doesn't really matter at this point: we have three eliminations; from my point of view eliminating Looker and Frogster is enough; from your point of view you might need to eliminate me too, but there will still be enough time for that and it should be a forced town win regardless.

[callforjudgement]

Actually, after thinking about this, it's probably best if I claim today, so that everyone has a better handle on what's going on.

Do people think it should be just me who claims? Or should we be massclaiming?

[Titus]

@CFJ, My solve is Walter or geratim. I believe I understand what you are throwing down, which makes geratim the only logical scum by my VCA.

VOTE: geratim

[callforjudgement]

There weren't many vote counts at the end of day 1, but there were a lot of relevant vote

changes

in that time which weren't caught by the mods' ISOs.

This might explain why you have geraintm as scum by VCA, but I have geraintm as town by VCA. At least, we shouldn't be drawing opposite conclusions from the same information!

[Titus]

Alright, what were these changes not caught by the mod's ISO and why do they make geratim town?

[Titus]

I did have a 9:4 possibility with you in play so...

[Titus]

To be abundantly clear, I am interested in lynching 1) geratim, 2) cfd, and 3) walter based on the opening today.

[callforjudgement]

Italiano and Walter voted for shelly in #820/#821. geraintm voted for Walter in #824. RCEnigma (=you) offered to hammer any wagon that reached L-1 in #826 (effectively a vote without voting). geraintm asked for a shelly prod in #828, then moved to shelly in #830 when I pointed out that she was posting elsewhere. There were only 2½ hours to deadline at this point. Deadline then got paused (due to shelly being replaced), and geraintm unvoted.

As a consequence, given shelly scum and Walter town, all a hypothetically scum geraintm would need to do would be simply to not post after the Walter vote, and shelly would have survived. I didn't think "shelly isn't posting" was a reason to scumread her (I townread her for it, on the basis that I couldn't explain her behaviour unless she'd forgotten about the game, and she seems to like playing scum so I doubt she would forget about the game if she were scum). geraintm seems to have taken it as sufficient reason to move his vote under severe time pressure, though. I don't see that coming from scum; there is no reason to bus someone who generally seems to be considered town but is receiving votes anyway, as the wagon is unlikely to reignite on future days.

(PEDIT: The confirmation of Titus as town assumes 10:3, it isn't reliable in a 9:4 setup. I find it very unlikely that scum would be given a power role in a 9:4, though, unless there's considerable unclaimed town power. That may be a reason to massclaim, so that we can determine how many scum there are.)

[Titus]

So you're telling me that Geratim voted shelley to not get caught if her wagon went through, unvoted when the deadline got extended and I should TR that?

[Titus]

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Let's play a game called where are the scum.

1.13
Shelley wagon - Town, Town based on early vote and my other VCA comments, Flipped Town, Town if CFD is town, ?
Walter wagon - Flipped town, Flipped town, CFD, Town based on 1.10.

Geratim unvotes because "shelley being replaced".

1.Final
Shelley - Town, Town based of VCA, Flipped town, town if CFD is, Town based off VCA, Town based on CFD, ?
Walter - Town, Town, Town


If Walter is indeed town, scum didn't want to be caught shifting the wagons when both wagons are all town.

Geratim is caught scum.

[Titus]

Either Geratim is scum, or you have to be or both.

[Looker]

• I still don't know why RCEnigma was defending Gamma in Post 1237

---

• The Titus/RCE slot has been the hammer for 2/3 of the last wagons. And next to last on the remaining third.
  
• Titus vs Gamma could've been a bus for town cred
  
• if CFJ's POE has me as scum, it's wrong, so I no longer trust it. No offense.

VOTE: RCEnigma/Titus The fact that we didn't return to this after Raya is suspicious to me

[callforjudgement]

Err, Looker, Titus is confirmed town. Your vote is not useful there.

[Titus]

Can you respond to 1844 cfd?

[Looker]

wait, confirmed how? what did i miss?