Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Morning Tweet]

not marksman, crossfire

[Prism]

i dislike not having a vote on someone, but i'm not feeling this as strongly anymore, and it is anyway probably not happening HURT: isis

So this is your unvote on Puppy. I've got a pretty good idea of the events, but can you run down more explicitly why your read weakened? You were getting a lot of pushback, but I'm curious as to what was going on internally that made

your

perspective weaken.

some games the townspewing machine is simply broke and i get executed and then people go "wait how did that flip town??"

Can you link one/two games like this?

[Prism]

Maybe I should have made my towncase in one sitting. I forgot a few things and found a few more issues that didn't stick out to me earlier.

Spoiler: The good: Tracing through a progression on Elements

Basically all of Tanner's progressions are great and tie together. I think there's like, one questionable one on Tayl0r but that's it. One of the main progressions that stuck out to me as being extremely coherent+tying together cleanly is Tanner's thinking on Elements. I'm not going to delve into it fully, but there's one section in particular that sticks out.

These snippets are both part of larger posts (Click the numbers to skim) and are a full day apart.

elements's pooky/puppy/tanner team is a... spicy take.

ugh, okay. it's already way past 3am here and i'm pretty tired and this game is uninspiring, so. i was hoping that elements would be back to elaborate on his reads or that lavender would be back to do

something

since those are the two things that interest me the most at the moment but alas.

Significantly later, I ask him about an entirely separate part of his progression on Elements.

First, it's worth noting that this explanation is

excellent

in and of itself itself. This takeaway from Pooky's post is completely plausible and his explanation lines up with the two posts above.

But the bolded is great-he remembers the two one-liners above and instantly connects back to them. This is over two weeks later!

The only read of theirs that is worth more of an explanation to me is the progression from 892 to 898 on Elements.

Tanner-When you said the takeaway from the catchup was you were fine with Elements, can you talk what made you feel this way?

i think 898 was made after i read page 35 and the top of page 36, and i'm decently sure 865 is what made me feel okay enough with that fight on day one. not outright a scumread, but enough that i didn't feel the urge to strongly and actively fight it.

the progression on pooky plainly didn't make sense.

and it reminded me how elements's 535 surprised me back when it was made, since i don't think i was a popular scumread at the time, so i was looking forward to seeing ele explain what he was seeing in me, both to see what i'm doing "wrong" and to hopefully help me sort him. then in the next post he unhurt and unhealed his votes and flaked out.

i didn't think much of the post at the time, but 865 made me think that i'm giving a free pass where i maybe should not be doing so.

pedit: ton of posts, gimme a bit

beeboy gets hyperwagoned on this page, Tanner doesn't vote citing that he doesn't know the VC and doesn't want to lolhammer. Kind of sketchy but probably fine?

Spoiler: The good part of the mixed: Early Day 2 paranoia progression

I think Tanner's entire day makes sense when you're given this as his opening post:

first things first, we only fight from here on out, right? now that the insta-loss after day 4 cannot happen, there's no reason to not go for genocide?

also, i'm still decently worried about how yesterday went down. i skimmed the VC's, beeboy was leading wagon for a while, and towards the end of the game, the only "counterwagons" with 2 votes were (1) the chara wagon, which han an RVS vote on it, and (2) me/catboi voting lavender for a little bit. (if there were more correct me, i'm doing this from memory.) thinking if there was bussing involved. (also remembering that event and seeing catboi dead makes me uneasy...)

@hectic, you disgreed with my "stalled wagon on beeboy means he's town" thing (and obviously you were right >_>), can we chat about this? do you think a bus is possible/likely?.

This basically sets the tone for the next week of Tanner's play. Day 1, he is noticeably worried about how little pushback the beeboy wagon is getting. Over the course of Night 1, he checks the counterwagons, sees little, and the gears immediately start turning about a possible bus.

There are a bunch of posts discussing this that I could link (1086, 1089), but I think it's the Puppy reaction that is worthwhile.

also i had a thought that elements was bussed and that scum was gonna try to get themselves spared off of towncred, and for puppy to enter the game going for spares... yay paranoia.

i'm pretty sure 4 fights are optimal in every single scenario now. day 2 is definitely a fight day to either win or get Not Chara flipped. since the "if mafia is spared, they win if both of them survive Day 5" clause in 1-3 is now pointless, sparing on day 3/4 is just setting off those executes for later... while losing 2 public cops. i can crunch the numbers later if anyone is that interested in it, but i'm pretty sure fighting is the way.

This wouldn't really make sense though, your argument would be that 4 fights is obviously objectively correct, also scum bussed for credit so they could play better in an inferior position. Why would scum bus at all?

I think it's more realistic that scum didn't bus, or at least didn't push the wagon until it was too late. In that case, sparing is a decent move because we'd save two townreads and still get a copcheck for it. 2 + 1 > > 2

yes, i realized it wouldn't make sense because "wait a minute, fighting is clearly optimal, nobody is gonna enter day 2 asking for spares!"

...except then you did exactly that.

i am 99.99% sure that genocide is the superior option as i was thinking about it earlier but now it's past midnight and my math brain is closed.

here's my spicy take of the night.

HURT: puppy

I think sparing is slightly better here. If your argument is "scum bussed someone who wasn't chara for slightly better odds to push sparing later". That's just silly.

my argument is "elements/beeboy was a wagon with very little to no resistance or counters, and he flipped scum, which means that either scum is the low-influence PoE'd players, or elements was turbobussed with scum holding a lot of clout right now, and in both of those cases sparing is very counterproductive".

If you're Tanner, sitting and thinking that someone

has

to have bussed and be heading into Day 2 looking to use that credit, and you immediately see Puppy push for sparing...this seems really plausible to me to think they might be scum. I think the crucial part I was missing here that pushes this into the +town zone for me is that I didn't realize that Tanner was already worrying about scum using D1 clout for D2/D3 before anyone said anything about sparing.

I think this progression: "Day 1 wagon was sketchy, two conf town on counter -> Had to be a bus, right? -> Someone's a deepwolf, how are they going to capitalize on it? -> Spares, and Puppy is pushing spares -> Puppy scum?" much more plausible/natural than something that works in kind of the opposite direction "Puppy pushing for spares -> Scum? -> Makes sense if he bussed"

This goes double when Tanner was already growing a bit more cautious around Puppy as Day 1 went on.

So that's the good+the good part of the mixed.

Now I do have some more questions that kind of cropped up.

First, Tanner:

There is one problem to me with your entire paranoia progression. You seem to have skimmed the ISOs of people off-wagon, and found redtea iffy. You've always been down to fight Lavender. At one point, you say this:

either (1) scum is actually all in the lower-influence "weaker" players and we have this game on lock, or (2) some mighty bus was happening yesterday... (2) scares me.

This is interesting to me, because you've kind of investigated only

parts

of either here. What I mean by this is you haven't investigated the possibility of deepscum too much despite being worried about it. Why are you not more worried about me, Chara, and Morning Tweet for example? How much ISO reviewing have you done of the stronger town slots?**

Second,

I'm a bit confused as to some of your more recent progressions in that it seems like you've gone into paranoid OMGUS mode repeatedly against slots that you're worried are pushing you. One of these that sticks out to me is your progression on redtea/Krazy seems to go haywire after Krazy replaces in and starts pushing you-you've backed off of the vote but haven't really indicated a change in his status, either. You give the reason to swap to Tayl0r based off of her questionable vote/push on you, but I'm really curious as to how you've been thinking about Krazy since his replace-in. I'm also curious for some updated thoughts on Lavender given your current stance on Tayl0r.

Third,

who do you have as more solid reads right now and why?

Spoiler: **Good progression I remembered too late footnote

This reminded me of the other important progression that stuck out to me+fits completely into Tanner's POV: How he worried about how legitimate/good faith Hectic's push on him was all throughout the 1100s/1200s, but especially in 1216. Again, deepwolf fears combined with Tanner's paranoia of getting pushed as a misfight make this pretty believable. I feel like I had more substantial comments here 6/7 hours ago but alas. Will probably get another chance to read them very soon.

[Prism]

That's definitely a lot more abbreviated, just in that I don't think it's that helpful for me to go down the line and say "this post about Puppy/Taylor matches this one..." ad infinitum. What I'm getting at here is that his reads, progressions, throughout the first 3/4ths of the game at least made complete sense and I don't see any glaring flaws.

I will say that Krazy's post had some points that were worth considering. My first question is very similar to Krazy's concerns about the fightpool, and the second tackles some of what Krazy was getting at with the "but I'm still in this lower section" part.

I do find some of the paranoia overwrought between Hectic, Krazy, and Puppy (1440 is a bit much, as is 1463) but that's about it.

[Prism]

Alright, time to revisit my "Hectic as Chara" theory.

[Prism]

Hm. Start of the game this seems plausible, weakens later in the day as he pushes the Ele/beeboy slot harder in the 900s. Definitely hardtrolled the team if he's Chara. His Day 2 start is a lot more complete+forceful than I remember, too. Probably not?

Eyes have started to glaze over. Probably time to stop for the day. Note to self: Finish single important task before lunch when the topic is fresh+energy immediately present.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

we're gonna look so dumb when whoever is chara flips chara

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Great reads on Tanner btw 10/10.

I agree that his progressions and reads are all very consistent and logical - however they feel too logical to be the nervous paranoid trainwreck known as TownTisi (<3) and I fear we are dealing with ScumTisi ('vv') - a more cunning and calculating predator with flawless logic and a penchant for murder.

[Tayl0r Swift]

heres an idea: we are having a lot of difficulty identifying scum. why not just flip a slot that needs sorting and if its scum we win and if its town chara dies and we sort the slot. what slot gives us the most info from a flip? prolly not lavender. maybe myself? maybe tanner. would my flipping green be helpful in resolving other slots?

[Krazy]

we're gonna look so dumb when whoever is chara flips chara

chara is definitely one out of Hectic, Chara, Prism, Pooky, Batgrrl, Swifty, Lav-chan, Tanner, or Doggo.

I think we can all agree -- I called it! :3

[Prism]

however they feel too logical to be the nervous paranoid trainwreck known as TownTisi (<3)

Day 1 I think this is lacking (outside of wagon paranoia) but if you look at Day 2 Tanner is basically 24/7 paranoid of anyone who even slightly positions/downgrades a read on him, ex. 1540 he's worried about Puppy only calling him a townlean lol

[Prism]

Taylor, from what I could tell earlier your reads are something like:

Hard town
=====
Hectic
Prism
Morning Tweet
Pooky

Unsure
======
Puppy
Lavender
Krazy

Scum/scumleans
======
Chara
Tanner

I'm curious as to what you think about the push on Tanner and who you think is singularly most likely to flip scum atm

[Morning Tweet]

[Tayl0r Swift]

Taylor, from what I could tell earlier your reads are something like:

Hard town
=====
Hectic
Prism
Morning Tweet
Pooky

Unsure
======
Puppy
Lavender
Krazy

Scum/scumleans
======
Chara
Tanner

I'm curious as to what you think about the push on Tanner and who you think is singularly most likely to flip scum atm

i dont know! like... im really waffling on tanner. and i think id move chara up to townleans because chara kinda just has to be town here? and krazy is probably town? so then lavender has to move down?
it would really be easier if you just lunched me. then i wouldnt have to worry about it any more.

[Tayl0r Swift]

lavender is probably the most likely to flip scum, but... lavender is kinda a hard null? its more just that being a hard null on page 95 probably means you havent been doing much, which is scum indicative.

[Morning Tweet]

Tayl0r why are you asking to be eliminated in 2 of your last 3 posts?

(¬ω¬)

[Prism]

Okay, I think we're getting somewhere-when you say Chara "has to be town here", what do you mean?

[Tayl0r Swift]

Okay, I think we're getting somewhere-when you say Chara "has to be town here", what do you mean?

because the only reason chara is scum is tin-foily, and it just doesnt hold up. chara has been pretty townie most of the game. chara has been absent recently, but said something about why iirc.

[Tayl0r Swift]

I DONT KNOW STOP ASKING ME AHHH

[Prism]

It...sounds like they don't have to be town?

I'm trying to make sense of this. They were pretty town. They were Chara, not very gamesolvey. I guess they are kind of gamesolvey, not Chara (role) anymore. Eh, they might still be scum though. They can't be scum, they've townie most of the game.

I...I can't understand.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I feel like I'm about to start my 15th re-read of Day 1 and I've spent too much time on this. big yikes

Prism come up with the answer already pls? thx

[Prism]

I don't want to know how many hours I've spent rereading at this point

Tayl0r/Hectic is my answer but it still doesn't feel right and I have work to do there STILL when my eyes aren't glazed over, then again we do have two people making it as hard as possible to

reach

the answer but jesus christ

don't even get me started if i'm putting too much stock in my ability to read redtea or if it's just lavender because i will yeet this computer into outer space

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑) trying to figure out who would actually make sense as being teamed with the elements slot and it's, like...lavender, taylor, redtea, or

I guess

Prism and that's it. Hrm.

is this post why catboi died >.>

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i think ive chased my tail around like 50 times around this game

and I don't even have a tail

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

nah prism can't be scum here Pooky

you're just being paranoid